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Cocoa hits 3-week peak as El Nino looms, robusta rallies
Cocoa hits 3-week peak as El Nino looms, robusta rallies
About this update from Jalles Machado Sa
Cocoa futures on ICE hit three-week highs on Wednesday amid fears that the El Nino weather pattern will harm next season's output, while robusta coffee hit three-month peaks.COCOALondon cocoa ICEEUR:C2! settled up £4, or 0.1%, to £3,161 per metric ton, having settled up 6.4% on Tuesday. The contract earlier hit its highest since late May at £3,257.The market has been supported by indications the El Nino weather pattern may significantly crimp 2026/27 output in West Africa and in No. 3 producer Ecuador.Broker StoneX said analysts were already reducing their forecasts for top grower Ivory Coast after crop surveys showed "no meaningful recovery of (cocoa) pod setting and counts".The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 63% probability of a very strong or "super El Niño" heading into 2027."If the forecast materialises, the El Niño would be one of the largest in NOAA’s historical record dating back to 1950," Rabobank said.New York cocoa ICEUS:CC1! rose 0.1% to $4,237 a ton.COFFEEArabica coffee ICEUS:KC1! settled down 0.9 cent, or 0.3%, at $2.719 per lb, having settled up 5.2% on Tuesday.Robusta coffee ICEEUR:RC2! rose 0.7% to $3,622 a ton, having hit its highest since late March at $3,659.Brazil's top coffee co-operative Cooxupe said its farmers had harvested 15.8% of their 2026 crop as of June 14, the lowest percentage in four years as El Nino-linked rains disrupted picking last week.Despite the rains, Brazil crop size would not change, although quality could suffer."The crop story is still bearish," GSZ Commodities said. "Rain slows harvest and dents quality, but the record crop still caps rallies unless the damage broadens," it said.El Niño is especially problematic for robusta as it typically brings high temperatures and reduced rains to Vietnam and Indonesia.SUGARRaw sugar ICEUS:SB1! settled up 0.03 cent, or 0.2%, at 13.85 cents per lb, having hit a near two-month low of 13.56 cents on Tuesday.Energy price declines continue to pressure the market by tempting cane mills to produce less ethanol fuel and more sugar.Brazil's Jalles Machado BMFBOVESPA:JALL3 expects its 2026/27 sugar production to fall by 4.2% to 418,100 tons, while ethanol output is seen rising 18%.Longer term, however, there are fears El Nino will curb production.Brazil sugar output fell sharply in late May, the government said.White sugar ICEUS:SF1! gained 0.5% to $45...