** Barclays expects European consumerboard operations to be loss-making until there are changes to U.S. tariffs
** "In the near term, all packaging stocks could see second-order impacts of end-market volume pressure from weaker consumer demand," it says
** The broker cuts its 2025 estimates for Stora Enso OMXHEX:STEAV and Holmen OMXSTO:HOLM_A, as it expects material impact on their consumerboard EBIT from the tariffs
** The broker sees Stora Enso as "particularly vulnerable", due to the Finnish group's high leverage and start-up of its new consumerboard capacity at Oulu, which Barclays thinks will be hard to fill
** Stora may have to sell additional forests or raise equity to reduce its leverage, it adds
** However, Barclays expects Smurfit WestRock NYSE:SW to benefit from lower imports from the EU owing to the London-listed group's domestic consumer packaging business in the U.S., despite a near-term recession risk
COMPANY
NEW RATING
OLD RATING
NEW PT
OLD PT
Holmen OMXSTO:HOLM_A
underweight
equal weight
SEK 350.00
SEK 420.00
Mondi LSE:MNDI
equal weight
underweight
1,100p
1,110p
Stora Enso OMXHEX:STEAV
underweight
overweight
EUR 7.5
EUR 11.50