2025-05-08 | |||
Links: | NBB.Stat | General information |
Results of the spring 2025 investment survey
- Compared to last autumn's survey, the investment indicator for 2025 has been revised sharply downwards in the manufacturing industry and upwards in business-related services.
- Investment intentions appear very weak in the manufacturing industry, while there is some dynamism in business-related services.
The National Bank conducts a biannual investment survey in the spring and autumn of each year. The spring survey, carried out from the beginning of March to mid-April, asks business leaders about the trend in their investments over the past year (increasing, steady or decreasing) and about their investment intentions for the current year. A synthetic indicator is then constructed by calculating the net balance of positive responses (increasing) and negative responses (decreasing), weighted by the size of each company in terms of the number of employees. The indicator, which is expressed in points, should therefore not be understood as representing a percentage change in investment volume for the year in question.
In the manufacturing industry, the investment indicator for 2024 stands at -1 point. Looking at the responses to previous surveys regarding investment intentions for 2024, it appears that the indicator has been systematically revised downwards. The outlook for 2025 shows a further drop to -2 points, a marked decline from the autumn 2024 survey, when the indicator stood at 23 points.
INVESTMENT INDICATOR1
Manufacturing industry Business-related services
23
13
4
0
−1
−2
50
Investment indicator ¹
40
30
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
2024 2025
50
Investment indicator ¹
40
30
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
37
23
14
9
1
−21
2024 2025
Autumn 2023 survey
Spring 2024 survey
Autumn 2024 survey Latest survey (spring 2025)
1 The investment indicator corresponds to the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in investment and the percentage of those declaring a decrease. The results are derived taking into account the respective size of participating firms and the relative weight of their sector in the economy.
Source: NBB.
Communication
National Bank of Belgium
14 Boulevard de Berlaimont 1000 Brussels
+ 32 2 221 46 28
https://www.nbb.be
Company number 0203.201.340 - Brussels RLE
In business-related services, the indicator for 2024 came in at 37 points. There has thus been a clear upward revision from the survey six months ago, when it stood at only one point. The indicator for 2025, which was revised upwards since last autumn, remains high but has fallen back slightly, to 23 points.
Indicator by type of capital goodsThe spring survey asks business leaders to indicate the trend in their investment, both overall and by type of capital goods, which makes it possible to calculate a specific indicator for each type of goods. The specific indicators are constructed in the same way as the overall indicator, namely by calculating for each category the net balance of positive responses (increasing) and negative responses (decreasing), weighted by the size of the firm1.
INDICATOR BY TYPE OF CAPITAL GOODS1
Manufacturing industry Business-related services
30
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
Machinery and equipment
Land, buildings and other infrastructure
30
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
Intangibles ² Machinery and
equipment
Land, buildings and other infrastructure
Intangibles ²
2024
2025
1 For each type of goods, the indicator corresponds to the difference between the percentage of firms that reported an increase in investment and those that reported a decrease. The results are derived taking into account the respective size of participating firms and the relative weight of their sector in the economy.
2 This refers to expenditure on R&D, software, data, intellectual property and vocational training.
Source: NBB.
In the manufacturing industry, investment dynamics in 2024 were slightly positive only for intangibles (1 point). For investment in land, buildings and other infrastructure, the indicator was clearly negative at -9 points. This downward trend continued into 2025, with the indicator for investment in land, buildings and other infrastructure dropping to -11 points. For intangibles, there was a sharp fall to -14 points. For machinery and equipment, the investment indicator rose slightly to -1 point.
In business-related services, the investment indicator was positive across the board. However the score for investment in machinery and equipment has fallen from a particularly high level of 25 points in 2024 to 7 points in 2025. Investment intentions for 2025 appear highest with regard to land, buildings and other infrastructure (14 points). The investment indicator for intangibles is slightly positive, at 1 point.
1 It is possible for firms to mention their overall investment trend without indicating a trend per type of goods. Their responses, although incomplete, are taken into account to calculate the aggregate results. While this may result in apparent inconsistencies between the overall indicator and the indicator per type of capital goods, the intention here is to highlight trends.
Communication
National Bank of Belgium
14 Boulevard de Berlaimont 1000 Brussels
+ 32 2 221 46 28
https://www.nbb.be
Company number 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE
Biannual investment survey1The National Bank of Belgium conducts an investment survey twice a year, in the spring and in the autumn. This survey, previously conducted only in the manufacturing industry, was revised in the autumn of 2021 and extended to the business-related services sector.
The survey used to be based on quantitative data: manufacturing firms were asked to indicate their investment levels, which made it possible to deduce the percentage change from one year to the next. The new survey is strictly qualitative, like all other business surveys carried out by the National Bank. Business leaders are now asked about how they expect their investment levels to evolve (increase, remain stable or decrease), without having to quantify the amounts concerned or the extent of change. The survey covers investments in both tangible and intangible goods.
The spring survey covers the current year and the preceding year, while the autumn survey relates to the current year and the coming year. A given year thus forms the object of four successive biannual surveys, the results of which fluctuate over time depending on the degree of certainty of investment decisions, which can also be adapted to the economic situation.
In addition, the following questions are added to the survey in either spring or autumn, as the case may be:
In the spring, firms are asked to indicate how they expect their level of investment to evolve per type of capital goods (machinery and equipment, land, buildings and other infrastructure, and intangibles such as R&D).
In the autumn, firms are asked to indicate the type(s) of investments they have made or intend to make, based on the purpose of the investment (replacement of plant or equipment, expansion of production capacity, rationalisation of production or other purposes) and identify the factor(s) driving their investment decisions (demand, financial conditions, technical factors or other factors).
The results of the survey are processed based on a double-weighting method in order to reflect the aggregate reality of the Belgian economy as closely as possible. Individual responses are first weighted based on the relative size of the firm in terms of the number of employees. Subsequently, when aggregating the responses, the relative weight of the firm's sector of activity in the Belgian economy is also taken into account. The latter weighting is based on investment information obtained from VAT returns; it is calculated at the level of three-digit NACE codes for the manufacturing industry and two-digit codes for the business-related services sector.
1This survey forms part of a harmonised European programme, coordinated by the European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
Communication
National Bank of Belgium
14 Boulevard de Berlaimont 1000 Brussels
+ 32 2 221 46 28
https://www.nbb.be
Company number 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE