Slide 1: Q1 2023 Results Presentation
Q1 2023 Results Presentation May 10, 2023
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including within "Outlook & Guidance", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable
Slide 3: Non-IFRS Financial Measures
Forward Looking Statements Non-IFRS Financial Measures This presentation contains certain non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios, including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance, Retail adjusted average working capital to sales, Retail cash operating coverage ratio, p
Slide 4: Quarterly Highlights and Outlook: Q1 2023
Quarterly Highlights and Outlook: Q1 2023 Nutrien delivered net earnings of $0.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA1 of $1.4 billion, the second highest net earnings of any first quarter on record We advanced strategic initiatives and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share re
Slide 5: Net earnings were the second highest on record for any first quarter
Nutrien’s net earnings were the second highest on record for any first quarter First Quarter 2023 2022 2021 Adjusted EBITDA Retail -$34 $240 $109 Potash $676 $1,406 $380 Nitrogen $676 $995 $300 Phosphate $137 $239 $97 Corporate & Others1 -$34 -$265 -$80 Consolidated2 $1,421 $2,615 $806 Net Earnings
Slide 6: Q1'2023 Retail Gross Margin
Q1’2023 Retail Gross Margin Gross Margin US$ Millions 1 Crop nutrients: decreased in all regions due to lower selling prices and higher cost inventory, partially offset by growth in proprietary nutritional products. Crop protection: lower margins, particularly in North America, attributable to a his
Slide 7: Q1'2023 Potash Gross Margin
Q1’2023 Potash Gross Margin Gross Margin US$ Millions Lower net realized selling prices • Decline in benchmark prices $1,545 Lower sales volumes • Decrease in North America primarily due to just-in-time buying $697 Higher COGS (excl. D&A) • Lower production volumes 1 • Pull forward of maintenance Q1
Slide 8: Q1'2023 Nitrogen Gross Margin
Q1’2023 Nitrogen Gross Margin Gross Margin US$ Millions Lower net realized selling prices • Lower energy prices in key nitrogen producing regions • Temporary reduction in demand $860 Higher sales volumes • Increased production of urea and $541 ESN® • Lower ammonia production in Trinidad Lower COGS (
Slide 9: Executing on our financial and operational targets
Executing on our financial and operational targets 2023 Targets Q1 2023 2022 2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”)1 Total Retail adjusted EBITDA margin2,3 >10.5% 9.7% 10.7% 10.9% US Retail adjusted EBITDA margin2,3,4 - 11.1% 12.2% 11.6% Retail adjusted average working capital to sales3,5 17% 19% 17%
Slide 10: Balanced approach to capital allocation through the cycle
Balanced approach to capital allocation through the cycle 2023 Capital Allocation Historical Capital Allocation (2018-2022) US$ Billions Percent $5.0B - $5.8B ~$0.4B Lease Payments1 Sustaining, Mine Completed Acquisitions3 Development & Dividends Paid Pre-Stripping ~$1.2B Investing Capital1 20% 24%
Slide 11: Investing ~$1.2B in growth initiatives consistent with our strategy
Investing ~$1.2B in growth initiatives that are consistent with our strategy and are expected to provide strong returns Other Operational Capability Ramp Additional mining machines and underground equipment and increased site-based storage and loadout Potash K Next Generation Autonomous mining opera
Slide 12: Outlook & Guidance
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Slide 13: Global grain and oilseed supplies projected to remain tight through 2023
Global grain and oilseed supplies are projected to remain tight through 2023 Global Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio1 Global Oilseed Stocks-to-Use Ratio2 Percent Percent 17.9 27.2 17.7 17.3 17.3 Stocks-to-use Stocks-to-use near 16.7 lowest since 24.1 historical low 16.5 1996/97 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.0 21.7 21.
Slide 14: Supply challenges have supported crop futures prices
Supply challenges have supported crop futures prices and provide incentive for growers to boost production Corn Avg. Realized Price Soybean Avg. Realized Price USD/bushel USD/bushel $6.89 $14.40 $14.30 $6.60 $13.00 $13.30 $6.00 $12.80 $5.34 $10.80 $10.10 $4.46 $4.53 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $8.57 $3.
Slide 15: US planting progress pace has been supportive of crop input demand
US planting progress pace has been supportive of crop input demand US Corn Planting US Soybean Planting Percent Complete Percent Complete 100% 100% Max Max 80% 80% 60% 60% 49% Min Min 40% 40% 35% 26% 19% 20% 14% 20% 8% 9% 2% 3% 4% 0% 0% Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May June Jun Jun Apr Apr Ma
Slide 16: Crop prices remain elevated while fertilizer costs have eased
Crop prices remain elevated while fertilizer costs have eased, supporting healthy grower margins Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs3 Local Currency Margin/Acre US$/bu US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans2 700 5,000 $8.00 4,500 600 $7.00 4,000 5
Slide 17: Global fertilizer prices near mid-cycle levels
Global fertilizer prices near mid-cycle levels Selected Fertilizer Prices Fertilizer Market Drivers US$ per Unit K 1,200 Brazil (Gran. US$/mt CFR) • Potash demand has strengthened in North America as the 1,000 US Midwest (Gran. - US$/st FOB) spring application season has progressed. 800 Southeast As
Slide 18: Expect increased potash demand in North America and Brazil in 2023
Expect increased potash demand in North America and Brazil in 2023 Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 19 20 21 22 23F 19 20 21 22 23F 19 20 21 22 23F 19 20 21 22 23F 19 20 21 22 23F 19 20 21 22 23F India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other 2.7 – 3.0Mmt 8.3 – 9.8Mmt 9.5 – 10.5Mmt 15.0
Slide 19: Expect significant reduction in shipments from Eastern Europe
Expect significant reduction in shipments from Eastern Europe compared to 2021 Potash Production in Selected Regions1 Millions of Tonnes KCl 18 2021 2022 2023F Range 15 12 9 6 3 0 Nutrien Other Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China 19 1. Production changes differ from our expectations of op
Slide 20: Expect long-term potash demand growth between 2.5% - 3.0%
Expect long-term potash demand growth in line with historical rates between 2.5% - 3.0% Global Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 80 Forecast Low Range 70 Forecast High Range 60 - Historical periods of below trend demand have 50 been followed by years of strong demand growth 40 - Nutrien’s project
Slide 21: Natural gas prices remain elevated in Europe compared to North America
Natural gas prices remain elevated in Europe compared to North America Energy Feedstock Prices Share of Global Ammonia Production2 US$/MMBtu Million Tonnes Henry Hub 55 $80 Upgraded Ammonia AECO 50 Merchant Ammonia $70 European Hub 1 45 China Bituminous Coal Historically Russia and Europe $60 40 com
Slide 22: Expect higher Chinese exports compared to 2022
Expect higher Chinese exports compared to 2022 but still below historical levels China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 12 6 Full Year Exports Total Year Avg Full Year Exports Total Year Avg 10 Annual Avg Annual Avg 2017-2021 2017-2021 ~4.5 Mmt ~9.2 Mmt 8 4 6
Slide 23: 2023 Guidance
2023 Guidance 2023 Guidance Ranges1,2 as of May 10, 2023 Feb 15, 2023 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Low High Adjusted net earnings per share (in US dollars)3,4 5.50 7.50 8.45 10.65 Adjusted EBITDA3 6.5 8.0 8.4 10.0 Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.60 1.75 1.85 2.05 Potash adju
Slide 24: Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Ratios
Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Ratios Retail Cash Operating Coverage Ratio Potash Controllable Cash Cost of Product Manufactured per Tonne (millions of US dollars, except as otherw ise noted) Q1 20231 2022 2021 (millions of US dollars, except as otherw ise noted) Q1 2023 2022 2021 Selling expenses
Slide 25: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd