Citycon Oyj · OMXHEX:CTY1S
Citycon Oyj — Investor Day (September 2010)
19 slides from Citycon Oyj's investor day presentation, September 2010
Slide 1: Global and Baltic Macro Update and Outlook 2010-2012
Global and Baltic Macro Update and Outlook 2010-2012 Meelis Paakspuu Head of CEE Treasury Units Swedbank September 2010
Slide 2: Summary
Summary • Global macro update: wobbly multi-speed global recovery, austerity and stimuli combined – More upbeat view on 2010 growth but less optimistic for 2011-12 than in Spring 2010 Forecast, inventory cycle driven growth coming to an end and timely well-coordinated structural reforms necessary to
Slide 3: Part 1 Global update: Current situation and outlook for 2011-12
Part 1 Global update: Current situation and outlook for 2011-12 (comparing to Spring 2010 Forecast)
Slide 4: Global economy: so far somewhat better than expected but a wobbly multi-speed recovery
Global economy: so far somewhat better than expected but a wobbly multi-speed recovery A recent flow of good though volatile data, multi- Optimism has improved, world trade volumes speed recovery globally and within EU, some risen… yet further advances are hard coming surprises on Germany vs. USA gr
Slide 5: Global economy: structural issues to be addressed and policies better coordinated globally
Global economy: structural issues to be addressed and policies better coordinated globally… with different country agendas!? Albeit unemployment has edged down, the risk of Commodity prices up, risks of bubbles. Core jobless recovery remains, structural change inflation slows to very low levels and
Slide 6: Global economy: base scenario more upbeat on 2010, less optimistic on 2011-12
Global economy: base scenario more upbeat on 2010, while less optimistic on 2011-12… just muddling through? • Base scenario: muddling through (50% probability) • The key negative forecast risks: – Better growth in 2010 and slower 2011-12, i.e. weak and – new instability in financial markets and fina
Slide 7: Part 2 Baltics update
Part 2 Baltics update: Current situation: what has changed since Spring 2010 Forecast
Slide 8: Economic activity: recent flow of good data raises 2010 forecast
Economic activity: recent flow good of data raises 2010 forecast, i.e. along with global developments The low point of the cycle was in late 2009. Strong run in optimism supporting growth, but it is Recovery is export driven, stabilizing household likely to fall somewhat over the autumn due to consu
Slide 9: Manufacturing: the key driver of growth, responding to regional export demand
Manufacturing: is the key driver of growth, responding to regional export demand Good run of manufacturing recovery (e.g. 1H Manufacturing confidence has recovered 2010 goods exports up by 21.3% yoy in EE, strongly, but how far will it go? Many leading 24.9% in LV, 24.4% in LT). But it closely follo
Slide 10: Manufacturing: a closer look at producer confidence
Manufacturing: a closer look at producer confidence So far, so good: employment expectations up, EE manufacturing confidence, pts so are selling price expectations, production 60 expectations continue to increase as well. 40 Confidence is by and large export driven and 20 the share of exports in ind
Slide 11: Households: labour market improves
Households: labour market improves EE Labour market indicators Unemployment retreats due to emigration, 50 30 seasonality and weak job creation. In July registered unemployment was at 11.7% in EE 25 15 (14.6% peak in March), 15.3% in LV (17.3%) and 0 0 flat at ca 15.3% in LT (but note the methodolog
Slide 12: Households: optimism is up, but setbacks are likely later in the year
Households: optimism is up, but setbacks are likely later in the year when unemployment inches up and political uncertainty rises EE consumer confidence, pts Households expect their economic outlook to 80 improve significantly with the sharpest gains in 60 unemployment expectations. Yet, improvement
Slide 13: Government: fiscal stance improves, no threat to exceed 2010 budget deficit target
Government: fiscal stance improves, currently no threat to exceed 2010 budget deficit target The sharp fall in tax revenues seems to have But further consolidation is still necessary as (i) bottomed out, 7M revenues exceed the plan many of the measures were temporary, and (ii) LV and there seems to
Slide 14: Deleveraging: as seen in textbooks, nobody said it's easy
Deleveraging: as seen in textbooks… nobody said it’s easy, but could have been worse EE credit and deposit growth (NFIs and Dragging their feet… deleveraging grinding to households), real EUR interest rate on loans the bone as credit stock shrinks, deposits are 60 24 up (where do they get the money
Slide 15: Part 3 Baltics outlook
Part 3 Baltics outlook: Outlook for 2011-2012: still muddling through but in a temporarily happier mood (comparing to Spring 2010 Forecast)
Slide 16: Base scenario: stronger recovery in 2010, but somewhat weaker in 2011-2012
Base scenario: stronger recovery in 2010, but somewhat weaker in 2011-2012 Main storyline remains as earlier and any change in numbers is mainly due to stronger than expected global growth in 2010 and weaker global growth in 2011-2012 (NOTE: all changes here relative to the Spring forecast, see next
Slide 17: Base scenario: Spring 2010 forecast (to be updated in autumn)
Base scenario: Spring 2010 forecast (to be updated in autumn) 2008 2009 2010f 2011f GDP real growth, % Estonia -3.6 -14.1 1.5 4.5 Latvia -4.6 -18.0 -2.5 4.0 Lithuania 2.8 -15.0 -2.0 3.0 Jobseekers' rate, % of economically active Estonia 5.5 13.8 14.0 12.0 Latvia 7.5 16.9 21.5 19.5 Lithuania 5.8 13.7
Slide 18: Risks to the Baltic forecast
Risks to the Baltic forecast GLOBAL: uncoordinated and wrong policy response, weak governments, protectionism • Global/ EU demand (positive/ negative): given that the recovery is exports driven, a new recession or sharp sustained slowdown will immediately shift the Baltic growth rates, incomes, empl
Slide 19: Thank you!
Swedbank : Thank you!