Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Tüpraş — Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation
34 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Feb 8, 2023
Slide 1: Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation
Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation 8 February 2022 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: 2022 Highlights
2022 Highlights Global Highlights Tüpraş Highlights Russia - Ukraine War Solid Steps taken for Transition Plan • EU’s embargo & G7 decision for price cap on Russian crude • Entek takeover completed and products redefined global crude and product flows • Entek made pre-licence applications for 22 pro
Slide 4: Q4 2022 – Tüpraş Highlights
Q4 2022 – Tüpraş Highlights Refining Production Total ZCE Sales from EBITDA (million TL) Q4 - Net Refining Margin Q4 - Domestic Sales Volume (mn tons) Production (GWh) ($/bbl) (mn tons) 55,587 26.1 1,160 20 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.1 25.0 951 6.0 6.3 4.8 4.7 4.3 5.3 5.1 15 10 14,067 5 0 2015 2012 2013 2014 201
Slide 5: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 6: Q4 2022 – Key Market Highlights
Q4 2022 – Key Market Highlights Excess volatility in Brent prices and surge in cracks amid Russia’s Low level of product inventories with delayed capacity additions & invasion and global energy crisis increased demand Global Oil Market mn bbl/d Refinery Capacity Changes in 2022 170 *Monthly simple a
Slide 7: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Mid-distillate margins continued to rise q/q in Q4 2022 as supply concerns escalated with strikes in Europe while negative effects of Russia-Ukraine war persist Diesel Jet Fuel 2017-2019 • Low inventory levels due 2017-2019 2022 2021 to strikes & increased 2
Slide 8: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Average differentials widened q-o-q in Q4’22. Basrah Heavy grade provided wider discounts in the fourth quarter compared to the rest of the slate. 0 -4 Arab Heavy Basrah Heavy -8 Kirkuk CPC Average* -12 OPEC+ disagreement Russia Iran OPEC+ Cut OPEC+ C
Slide 9: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 10: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • Tüpraş produced 6.0 million tons in Q4 2022. • Capacity utilization for Q4 2022 was 84%, relatively lower due to 4th quarter being the maintenance season. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2019 2020 2021 2022 Crude Oil
Slide 11: Product Sales in Q4 2022 (Million Tons)
Product Sales in Q4 2022 (Million Tons) • Tüpraş generated 7.2 million tons of sales in Q4 2022, 9% lower y-o-y. • Domestic sales were 4% higher y-o-y in Q4 2022 with better diesel, jet fuel and bitumen sales. Total Product Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen D
Slide 12: Electricity Production & Sales in 12M 2022 (GWh)
Electricity Production & Sales in 12M 2022 (GWh) • Entek generated 1,451 GWh electricity in 12M 2022. • Total Zero Carbon Electricity (ZCE) sales from production increased 21.9% y-o-y in 12M’22 to 1,160 GWh. Total Production (GWh) Total ZCE Sales from Production (GWh) 1,451 Entek’s Installed Capacit
Slide 13: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 14: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) Q4 Q4 Million TL(**) % 2022 2021 % 2022 2021 Net Sales 116,026 56,892 104% 481,765 152,492 216% COGS -96,560 -48,919 -97% -418,988 -136,632 -207% Gross Profit 19,466 7,974 144% 62,777 15,860 296% Operating Expenses -3,084 -1,237 -149% -8,235 -3,318 -148% Income/Loss fro
Slide 15: Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2021 – Q4 2022)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (Q4 2021 – Q4 2022) Strong cracks coupled with wider differentials boosted PBT in Q4 2022 despite elevated energy expenses. Million TL 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 15 Earnings Presentation
Slide 16: Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021 – 2022)
Profit Before Tax Bridge (2021 – 2022) 2022 PBT was positively impacted by stronger cracks and wider differential spreads. Million TL 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 16 Earnings Presentation
Slide 17: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights Net Income¹ (mn TL) EBITDA (mn TL) Q4 Q3 H1 H1 Q3 Q4 41,045 55,587 17,589 8,908 16,366 1,887 17,812 4,039 11,554 3,713 3,778 14,067 738 545 1,766 3,495 956 7,342 21,409 526 3,243 542 -2,494 1,424 11,902 2,346 383 2,873 1,405 186 977 3,852 495 376 1,043 -814 -155 1,028 2021* 2022
Slide 18: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt bn TL In Billion TL In Billion $ bn $ Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) TL Hard Currency $ equivalent 12.0 12.0 2.7 8.4 9.4 60 49.8 -0.9 0.9 40 0.6 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.5 20 12.0 -16.5 1.9 0.3 0.3 1.3 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21* Dec-22* 0 Cash & 1 year 1
Slide 19: FX Exposure Management (31 December 2022)
FX Exposure Management (31 December 2022) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 1,118 2,456 Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Receivables & Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 239 321 •
Slide 20: Outlook for 2023
Outlook for 2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 21: 2023 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2023 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Starting Quarter Duration (weeks) Purpose Planned Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 7 Ongoing Batman Seasonal Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 6 Planned FCC Q1 7 Ongoing Crude Oil, Vacuum, CCR, Q1 8 Revamp Ongoing İsom. İzmir Lube Complex Q1 8 Ongoing Crude Oil , Vacuum Q4
Slide 22: 2023 Expectations
2023 Expectations Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 11$/bbl -12$/bbl • 24-25 mn tons production, 28-29 mn tons sales and 85 - 90% capacity utilization Consolidated Capex ~350 million $ • ~60% of capex for sustainability focused energy efficiency and environmental projects 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confiden
Slide 23: 12M 2022 Results
12M 2022 Results Refining Margins ($/bbl) Capacity Utilization (%) 18.0 Tüpraş Net Margin 16.0 14.0 Tüpraş FY 100 91.6 % total capacity 12.0 Target 90 utilization in 12M 80 10.0 70 2022 8.0 16.5 60 50 29.3 mn tons of 6.0 40 91.6 4.0 30 sales and 26 mn 2.0 20 tons of production 0.0 10 in 12M 2022 0 1
Slide 24: Strategic Transition Plan - Latest Updates
Strategic Transition Plan - Latest Updates ZERO CARBON ELECTRICITY BIOFUELS As of Dec’22 end we have initiated ZCE capacity installations in our refineries with a total of 122.6 MW Solar & 12.6 MW Wind PP Basic engineering studies were completed İzmit to produce sustainable aviation fuel, We Solar -
Slide 25: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 25 Earnings Presentation
Slide 26: Appendix
Appendix Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 27: Turkish Market, 11M 2022
Turkish Market, 11M 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct-Nov Diesel 24.1 Jet1 Million 23.2 Tons 22.3 20.3 4.7 5.0 4.2 5.0 2.0 4.3 0.9 7.0 7.4 6.6 - 7.2% 0.9 + 41.1% 7.4 3.1 1.7 2.0 0.6 1.4 6.1 5.3 6.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.7 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gasoline LPG 2
Slide 28: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,857 fuel stations as of December 2022 end. Opet Sunpet Total 1,857 1,766 1,802 Market Share 1,670 as of November 2022 1,615 1,560 1,504 1,444 588 615 1,393 563 1,325 1,356 463 495 18.8% 31.6% 434 431 427 435 410 418 White Black Product Product 1,242 1,073 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,203 1,21
Slide 29: Q4 Product Yields
Q4 Product Yields Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Other Other Bitumen 2% LPG LPG Kok 7% 3% Bitumen 2% 3% 3% 11% Gasoline Other Kok Gasoline 21% Other Fuel Oil white 4% 21% white 9% Black Prod. 2% Light Light 19% Distil. Fuel Oil Black Prod. 2% Distil. 25% 3% 18% Naphtha 25% Naphtha 1% 1% Mid. Distil. Jet Mid. Disti
Slide 30: 12M Product Yields
12M Product Yields 12M 2021 12M 2022 Other Other Bitumen 2% LPG 3% Bitumen 2% LPG Kok 8% 3% 10% 4% Gasoline Kok Other 3% Gasoline 21% Other Fuel Oil white 21% white 6% Black Prod. 2% Light Fuel Oil Black Prod. 2% Light 18% Distil. 6% 19% Distil. 25% Naphtha 26% 1% Naphtha 1% Mid. Distil. Jet Mid. Di
Slide 31: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.12.2022* 31.12.2021* Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 119,711 66,515 53,195 80 Cash & C. Equivalents 49,770 21,176 28,594 135 Trade Receivables 21,418 13,797 7,621 55 Derivatives 3,597 3,824 -227 -6 Inventories 36,046 23,758 12,288 52 Pre-paid expenses 749 193 555
Slide 32: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins(*) ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 28.2 16.5 5.7 3.7 1.7 1.3 1.6 -0.2 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin Q4 2022 30.0 0.0 30.0 19.0 19.0 29.0 12M 2022 23.9 0.7 23.2 15.8 16.5
Slide 33: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Q4 2022 Q4 2021 960 329 291 187 194 150 141 165 63 31 39 35 0 9 6 0 0 0 Diesel Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO LPG Naphtha Alkylate MTBE 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 33
Slide 34: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 09/02/2023 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 34 Earnings Presentation