National Australia Bank Limited · ASX:NAB
National Australia Bank — Business Markets Webinar (June 2025)
19 slides from National Australia Bank's conference presentation, Jun 19, 2025
Slide 1: Australian and financial markets outlook…in the age of Trump
Australian and financial markets outlook…in the age of Trump Tapas Strickland | Head of Market Economics, Markets
Slide 2: Overview: Still clouded, Australia well placed
Overview: Still clouded, Australia well placed Election implications Governing Labor party re-elected with an increased majority First part of the agenda is student debt cut (20%) and super tax reforms (>$3m balances) Size of government in the economy likely to remain high We think RBA will get poli
Slide 3: Market pricing for rates
Market pricing for rates NAB sees the next RBA moving by 25bp in July, see cash rate at 3.10% by November 2025. Still see neutral at around 3.1% Economic and Global Financial Update 3
Slide 4: Input prices still a challenge to margins
Input prices still a challenge to margins NAB monthly survey shows profitability being challenged amid high input costs Economic and Global Financial Update 4
Slide 5: What is driving inflation
What is driving inflation New dwelling costs has driven a lot of the moderation; is that likely to be sustained? Economic and Global Financial Update 5
Slide 6: NAB’s data shows under 25s and 45-54 years
NAB’s data shows under 25s and 45-54 years Spending per capita is still soft for under 25s and for those aged 45-54years Economic and Global Financial Update 6
Slide 7: Business sector performance
Business sector performance Conditions in services positive, but retail/wholesale and manufacturing are weak Economic and Global Financial Update 7
Slide 8: Trump Administration: key observation (1)
Trump Administration: key observation (1) Countries ‘free ride’ on the US security umbrella; As US GDP shrinks as a share of global need burden sharing Polish PM Tusk (2025): “It’s striking but it’s true. Right Stephen Miran (2024): “…this arrangement becomes more now, 500 million Europeans are begg
Slide 9: Trump Administration: key observation (2)
Trump Administration: key observation (2) US has run a large and persistent trade deficit and due to reserve status, the USD is not able to correct USD Valuation – PPP Bessent (2025): “We do not want a generalized decoupling from China,” “But what we do want is a decoupling for strategic necessities
Slide 10: Trump Administration: key observation (3)
Trump Administration: key observation (3) Need to address the US federal deficit, but also wants to cut taxes and deregulate; interest an issue Bessent (2025): "President Trump has a mandate. He came in Trump 2025: “But if you don’t make your product in to do big things. And one of the big things th
Slide 11: What has been the Trump impact on global markets?
What has been the Trump impact on global markets? Asset markets broadly positive, USD is down. Gold is up and so is Bitcoin. Yields broadly steady Economic and Global Financial Update 11
Slide 12: Diversification out of USDs for reserve asset managers
Diversification out of USDs for reserve asset managers G7 confiscation of Russia’s FX reserves has seen central banks diversify away from USD assets Economic and Global Financial Update 12
Slide 13: AUD considerations – models giving different views
AUD considerations – models giving different views Our central forecast is for the AUD to lift to 0.70 by end 2025, exclusively a USD weakness story. The short-term models of the AUD though giving differing reads in the near-term and much will depend on the pace of USD weakness. On the crosses we ex
Slide 14: NABvertising: Keep up to date with all the latest developments!
NABvertising: Keep up to date with all the latest developments! • Overnight Market Developments: Markets Today (available also as a podcast, The Morning Call) Click to listen • Resources Today • FX – Global FX Strategist • Economic Trends → Australian Markets Weekly → Australian and Global Economic
Slide 15: Detailed Economic Forecasts
Detailed Economic Forecasts Economic and Global Financial Update 15
Slide 16: Detailed FX Forecasts
Detailed FX Forecasts Economic and Global Financial Update 16
Slide 17: Disclaimer
Disclaimer General Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research author(s) from the Markets Research Division on behalf of National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("National Australia Bank Limited" or "NAB") its related companies, and associated entities. Any Investm
Slide 18: Disclaimer
Disclaimer NAB Group sales persons, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the Investment Recommendations or views expressed in this Report. Research au
Slide 19: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The NAB Group and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees will from time to time take various positions and/or roles in relation to financial instruments or financial products and services, and (subject to NAB Group policies) may hold or look to hold a position or act as a pric
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