Grenergy Renovables S.a · BME:GRE
Grenergy Renovables — Investor Day (November 2023)
49 slides from Grenergy Renovables's investor day presentation, November 2023
Slide 1: Capital Markets Day
Capital Mar eee Day Feedback = = > November 2023
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER By attending this presentation and/or by accepting this presentation you will be cial condition or results of operations by the Company and should not be relied upon taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and when making an investment decision. Certain finan
Slide 3: Agenda & Speakers
AGENDA & SPEAKERS 9:00 BUSINESS UPDATE, David Ruiz de Andrés (CEO) INTRODUCTION TO OUR MARKETS, Pablo Otín (COO) STORAGE: A GAME CHANGER, David Ruiz de Andrés (CEO) AGENDA 10:30 COFFEE BREAK FINANCIAL REVIEW, Daniel Lozano (Chief Strategy & Capital Markets) & Emi Takehara (CFO) ESG REVIEW, Rocío Fer
Slide 4: Business Update
BUSINESS UPDATE pai 5 ll iia
Slide 5: Solid Foundations for a Profitable Growth Story
SOLID FOUNDATIONS FOR A PROFITABLE GROWTH STORY 1 VERTICALLY INTEGRATED IPP DEVELOPMENT – Pipeline of 15.5GW in PV + 10.7GWh in BESS CONSTRUCTION – 0.9GW in PV + 0.5GWh in BESS U/C SERVICES – 1.2GW CONTRACTED (O&M/AM) in 6 COUNTRIES 2 GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION 3 CORE MARKETS FOR B2O (CHILE, EUROP
Slide 6: Grenergy at a Glance
GRENERGY AT A GLANCE A unique and very successful equity story YESTERDAY TODAY 2007 2012 2015 2019 2023 TECHNOLOGY GEOGRAPHICAL PRESENCE 300MW 4.0GW 15.5GW Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio GROWTH STRATEGY 20 120 c500 employees employees employees EQUITY €12m €39m c€400m EBITDA €4m €21m >€100m MARKET CA
Slide 7: 1. Vertically Integrated IPP
1. VERTICALLY INTEGRATED IPP Highly efficient to maximize value creation INTEGRATED IPP PLAYER Grenergy has the expertise to build and operate large-scale renewable energy plants Operation & Maintenance CAPEX OPEX Development Construction Services Asset Management 15.5GW PV + 10.7GWh BESS >100 plant
Slide 8: 2. Geographical Diversification
2. GEOGRAFICAL DIVERSIFICATION Flexibility to capture growth opportunities and mitigate risks 2023 15.5GW USA 2027 Identified Opportunities Solar 4.7GW 5,083MW Storage 3.0GWh Early Stage 2026 6,058MW Advanced Development 2025 1,794MW EUROPE Backlog LATAM In Operación & U.C. 0.7GW 813MW In Operación &
Slide 9: 3. Highly Visible Business Model - PPAs
3. HIGHLY VISIBLE BUSINESS MODEL - PPAs Best-in-Class – 2.8TWh of PPAs signed, implying €2.7bn of contracted revenues 2.0GW/2.8TWh per year PPAs SIGNED €2.7bn REVENUES CONTRACTED Significant step-up in 2023 (1.7TWh/y signed, c60% of total) c80% contracted revenues First BESS PPAs signed in Chile (0.
Slide 10: 4. Strong Growth Track-Record - Structured Finance & Capital Markets
4. STRONG GROWTH TRACK-RECORD - STRUCTURED FINANCE & CAPITAL MARKETS Bullet proof - $0.7bn financing secured and another $1.3bn well-advanced STRUCTURED FINANCE EQUITY 2018-19 $129m 160MW 2021 €105m capital increase Up to date 2022 €90m capital increase >$0.7bn 2020-21 $255m 445MW SECURED financing
Slide 11: 4. Strong Growth Track-Record - M&A
4. STRONG GROWTH TRACK-RECORD - M&A Impressive track-record – 1.1GW sold for €0.9bn in 2017-23 at an implicit 1.5x EV/IC ASSET ROTATION EMBEDDED INTO OUR DNA VERY SUCCESSFUL TRACK RECORD IN 2017-23 High value creation of development activities 58 projects 1.1GW €0.9bn proceeds Strong track-record us
Slide 12: 5. First-Mover into BESS
5. FIRST-MOVER INTO BESS OASIS ATACAMA is the largest BESS platform globally (4.1GWh) BESS – A GAME CHANGER STORAGE MW Under Backlog Advanced Early Total Under Const. Dev. Stage Total • An efficient solution in Atacama (Chile) Const. MWh Probability MWh 100% 90% 70% 50% MW Output maximisation at hig
Slide 13: Key Strategic Targets 2026
KEY STRATEGIC TARGETS 2026 Growing to the next level CAPACITY 1 ASSET ROTATION 3.5GW 3.0GWh 350-450MW p.a. Net Net in 2023-26 5.0GW 4.1GWh c50% closed & advanced Gross Gross GROSS CAPEX EBITDA run-rate €2.6bn €250-300m in 2023-26 in 2026 €1.5bn PV €0.8bn BESS only Energy business 13 1. Assets in Ope
Slide 14: Our Markets
2 O U R MARKETS
Slide 15: Grenergy Markets
GRENERGY MARKETS 2023 INSTALLED CAPACITY1 LATAM EUROPE USA In Operación & U.C. In Operación & U.C. 1.1GW + 0.5GWh 0.7GW Solar 4.8GW Storage 4.9GWh Solar 5.1GW Storage 2.8GWh Solar 4.7GW Storage 3.0GWh OUR SUCCESS OUR PRESENT OUR FUTURE 2026 INSTALLED CAPACITY TARGETS1 c.40% 1.4GW c.30% 1.1GW c.30% 1
Slide 16: LATAM Platform
LATAM PLATFORM MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY Market stats (2022) Chile Colombia Peru Mexico • Why LATAM? • Grenergy´s second home-market. Type of Market Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated • Growing demand for RES offering unique offtake opportunities Total Capacity (GW) 33 19 13 95 Total Gen
Slide 17: Chile – A Global Powerhouse in Solar Energy
CHILE – A GLOBAL POWERHOUSE IN SOLAR ENERGY RESILIENT MACRO FAVORABLE RENEWABLE FRAMEWORK • Investment Grade1 Credit Rating A- 2022 Population (m) 19.6 • Dollarized industry GDP per capita ($'000) 17.3 • Regulatory stability GDP growth (%) 2.4 • Renewable support (capacity payment) GDP per capita Pe
Slide 18: European Platform
EUROPEAN PLATFORM MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY Market stats (2022) Spain Italy Germany Poland Romania • Why Europe? • At the forefront of Energy Transition Type of Market Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated • Regulatory support (on energy independence needs) Total Capacity (GW) 1
Slide 19: European Markets
EUROPEAN MARKETS SOUTHERN CENTRAL EASTERN SPAIN GERMANY POLAND Best solar radiation & Up-and-coming market Largest market in EU Largest land availability in EU with attractive fundamentals • 15+ years presence in home market • Operating since 2022 • Operating since 2021 • #1 market in EU in 2022 (8.
Slide 20: US Platform
US PLATFORM MARKET OVERVIEW STRATEGY Market stats (2022) Southeast MISO+SPP(1) TEXAS Total US Total US • Why the US? 2030 • Largest and most dynamic solar PV market globally (+419GW Type of Market Deregulated Deregulated Deregulated - - in 2022-30) Total Capacity (GW) 175 190 139 1,262 1,690 • Stron
Slide 21: US Markets
US MARKETS MIDWEST: MISO + SPP CAPACITY ADDITIONS Estimated Midwest subsidized LCOEs vs MISO power prices 2023-30 $/MWh (Real2022) 100 • 46GW in PV 80 • 1.5GW in 2022 Solar (fixed) • 9GW p.a. in 2023-28 60 Power price range • 17GW in CCGT retirements 40 likely replaced by BESS 20 0 2015 2020 2025 20
Slide 22: Storage: A Game Changer
Eo STORAGE: A GAME CHANGER
Slide 23: Storage (I): A Game Changer
STORAGE (I): A GAME CHANGER SOLAR PV IS THE MOST COMPETITIVE RE1 TECHNOLOGY SOLAR PV ADOPTION IS BOOMING (LCOE at €40/MWh, -25% & -50% vs. onshore & offshore wind) (c55% of RE capacity in 2022 vs. 21% in 2010) 4 GW RENEWABLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY TECHNOLOGY 400 80% 3.5 CAPEX in U.S. dollars per watt
Slide 24: Storage (II): Technologies
STORAGE (II): TECHNOLOGIES BESS vs. OTHER STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES MAJOR BESS SUPPLIERS WORLDWIDE BESS Pumped hydro Hydrogen Land availability Speed of execution Market Cap. $94bn Market Cap. $119bn Scalability Capital intensity External raw mat. need Grid support Market Cap. $2bn Non-listed LITHIUM-ION
Slide 25: Storage (III): BESS Market Size & Growth Prospects
STORAGE (III): BESS MARKET SIZE & GROWTH PROSPECTS GLOBAL BESS INSTALLED CAPACITY TARGETS (GW) BESS CUMULATIVE CAPACITY ACROSS GRENERGY’S CORE MARKETS (GW) +34% CAGR; x8 656 546 +33% CAGR; x7 127 449 364 100 EUROPE 286 79 213 62 144 87 47 28 45 35 25 17 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2
Slide 26: Storage (IV): Business Models
STORAGE (IV): BUSINESS MODELS AC/DC INVERTER SOLAR ARRAY BATTERY AC/DC INVERTER GRID GRID BATTERY STAND-ALONE BESS CO-LOCATED BESS • Separate site independent of solar generation • Same site, single point of interconnection • Capacity constrained areas KEY FEATURES • Countries with higher solar pene
Slide 27: Storage (V): Chile Entering the Sweet Spot
STORAGE (V): CHILE ENTERING THE SWEET SPOT BESS IS AN EFFICIENT SOLUTION IN ATACAMA RETURNS ALREADY ATTRACTIVE • Downward trend in capex (-33% in 18 months) • High solar penetration (c50% of total capacity) • Output maximisation (avoids curtailment) • Existing cannibalisation & nodal risks • High tr
Slide 28: Storage (VI): Oasis Atacama Platform
STORAGE (VI): OASIS ATACAMA PLATFORM Largest BESS project in Latam with 4.1GWh TOTAL CAPEX PROJECT IRR c$1.4bn 11-14% Phases 2023 2024 2025 2026 OASIS ATACAMA Phase 1 c1.0GW + 4.1GWh Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 RTB COD PPA PV BESS PPA (peak-hours) Financing MW MW MWh Years Ouput Offtaker Phase 1
Slide 29: Financial Review
4REVIEW FINANCIAL
Slide 30: Key Strategic Targets 2026
KEY STRATEGIC TARGETS 2026 Growing to the next level INSTALLED CAPACITY1 CAPEX EBITDA 3.5GW Solar PV + 3.0GWh BESS Net Gross capex €2.6bn 2023-26 €250-300m Energy EBITDA run-rate2 5.0GW Solar PV + 4.1GWh BESS Gross (c70% build-to-own) Asset rotation 350-450MW p.a. GW Solar PV BESS Dev & Other Energy
Slide 31: Installed Capacity – Gross Additions 2023-26
INSTALLED CAPACITY – GROSS ADDITIONS 2023-26 Solar PV pipeline 100% secured1 until 2025 BESS pipeline 100% secured1 until 2025 5.0GW gross capacity in 2026 (in Op & U/C) 4.1GWh gross capacity in 2026 (in Op & U/C) Asset rotation 350-450MW p.a. Asset rotation 1.0GWh in 2023-26 GW GWh 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0
Slide 32: Capex Plan – Gross Investment 2023-26
CAPEX PLAN – GROSS INVESTMENT 2023-26 Gross capex €2.6bn in 2023-26 (c70% B2O) Downward trend in PV and BESS capex per MW €bn BESS CAPEX BREAKDOWN PER MWh LITHIUM PRICES ($'000 per ton) 3.0 $m 0.40 0.39 90 2.6 75 2022 0.30 0.30 2.5 10% 60 0.20 2023 0.20 0.18 45 30 0.10 2.0 30% 15 0.00 2021 2022 2023
Slide 33: PPAs - High Revenue Visibility
PPAs - HIGH REVENUE VISIBILITY PPAs SIGNED of 2.0GW / 2.8TWh per year Another 2.0GW of PPAs c80% contracted revenues/c20% merchant (including peak hours) under negotiation 15-year contracted period in our 3 regions 60% contracted NPV CONTRACTED OUTPUT & REVENUES MW GWh OUTPUT 1,500 600 Merchant 259
Slide 34: EBITDA & Returns - Profitable Growth
EBITDA & RETURNS - PROFITABLE GROWTH Energy EBITDA run–rate ~ €250-300m in 2026 9-11% PROJECT IRR Asset Rotation ~ 350-450MW p.a. 2024-26 (170MW in 2023) 11-14% €m 300 Sensitivities +/- 10% capex PV Project IRR -/+ 30bps +/- 10% capex BESS Project IRR -/+ 70bps 200 +/- 1% CPI adj. Project IRR -/+ 10
Slide 35: Asset Rotation – A Key Equity Recycling Lever
ASSET ROTATION – A KEY EQUITY RECYCLING LEVER Asset Rotation of 350-450MW p.a. in 2023-26 c50% already €1.5-2.0bn proceeds in 2023-26 closed & advanced Implict valuation of 1.3x-1.5x EV/IC (c66% for 2023-25 period) MW €bn 500 2.0 1.5-2.0 350-450 p.a. 400 1.5 45% 300 50% 1.0 200 20% 20% 120 p.a 0.5 1
Slide 36: Asset Rotation – Valkyria Summary
ASSET ROTATION – VALKYRIA SUMMARY INITIAL PLAN Sale of 530MW (49% of 1.1GW) for €0.9-1.1m/MW (implying c€0.53bn) MILESTONES TO DATE Sale of 447MW for €1.0m/MW (implying €0.45bn) 85% NEXT MILESTONES On track completed HIGHLIGHTS OUTCOME ESCUDEROS 200MW KEPT 1ST MILESTONE 2ND MILESTONE YTD EQT-SPK dea
Slide 37: Financing – Self-Funded Investment Plan (I)
FINANCING – SELF-FUNDED INVESTMENT PLAN (I) NON-RECOURSE FINANCING STRATEGY POTENTIAL UPCOMING DEALS • c80% of Project capex (85-90% post D&C margin) VALKYRIA ASSETS UNDER CONSTRUCTION (472MW) • c85% fixed/swapped • c€0.3bn bridge loan with 3 international banks • 9.7 year average tenor • 80-90% cap
Slide 38: Financing – Self-Funded Investment Plan (II)
FINANCING – SELF-FUNDED INVESTMENT PLAN (II) CORPORATE FINANCING MOST RECENT DEAL • c30% of total debt SANTANDER/CESCE1 FINANCING FACILITY • c85% fixed/swapped • 3.8-year average tenor • Size - $157m financing facility with Santander • c5.0% average cost • Coverage – 80% of principal covered by CESC
Slide 39: Capital Allocation & Leverage
CAPITAL ALLOCATION & LEVERAGE 2024-25 FULLY DE-RISKED PPAs signed Financing closed or well-advanced Asset rotation c66% closed or well-advanced 2023-26 CAPITAL ALLOCATION €bn 3.0 0.05 0.2 2.5 0.2 0.6 0.15 2.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0 PV BESS Dev. Corporate Other1 Asset Corporate Project Dividen
Slide 40: ESG
O: Nn: ’ Las WwW wr “at “% ~
Slide 41: ESG the Heart of Grenergy
ESG THE HEART OF GRENERGY Reasons for investing and enhancing ESG matters GREEN FINANCING > GREEN ECONOMY POSITIVE IMPACT ESG EXCELLENCE > > BENEFITED BUILDING STRONGER COMMUNITIES COMPANIES, AND ENVIRONMENT DELIGHTING STAKEHOLDERS 41
Slide 42: ESG Roadmap 2021-2023
ESG ROADMAP 2021-2023 Main highlights achieved TODAY TOMORROW 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q3&Q4 2023 2024-2026 in progress Calculation of the Sustainability Elaboration of the new Launch of ESG gender pay gap report audited Sustainability Strategy Roadmap 21-23 at company level for the first time 2024- 2026
Slide 43: Recognition in ESG Ratings
RECOGNITION IN ESG RATINGS Expansion and improve positioning in ESG ratings Confirmation of leadership in ESG ratings ESG score Recognition by CDP of the level of 1. Scatec A 81/100 ambition of Grenergy's climate 2. Grenergy Renovables A- Expansion of index coverage, Grenergy Renovables A- strategy,
Slide 44: New Sustainability Strategy 2024-2026
NEW SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY 2024-2026 Structure | Dimensions, Drivers, Objectives and Actions STRUCTURE | 4 LEVELS DIMENSIONS | 6 DRIVERS | 17 ( 8 STRATEGIC) Fighters against CLIMATE CHANGE • Climate neutrality and energy transition Protectors of ENVIRONMENT People • Conservation and restoration of
Slide 45: New Sustainability Strategy 2024-2026: Objectives
NEW SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY 2024-2026 Structure | Dimensions, Drivers, Objectives and Actions OBJECTIVES | KEY TARGETS Climate Environment People Change Positive % bonus Carbon biodiversity of all employees neutrality footprint linked to ESG Sustainable Corporate Value Chain finance and gobernance I
Slide 46: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 47: Pipeline Update
PIPELINE UPDATE Projects In Operation, Under Construction & Backlog 1.7GW in operation and under construction, 813MW in final development phase Country Project Type Solar PV BESS B20 Resource COD Offtaker MW MWh(1) (Hours) Peru Duna Huambos Wind 36 0 No 4,900 4Q20 Auction 18 Yrs 100% Chile Quillagua
Slide 48: Pipeline Update: Projects in Advanced Development
PIPELINE UPDATE Projects in Advanced Development 1.8 GW to feed our 2025-25 IPP targets Country Project Type Solar PV BESS Resource COD Offtaker Negotiation MW MWh(1) (Hours) Spain Clara Campoamor Solar 259 0 2,000 2Q25 PPA PaP 75% 15 Yrs Contracted Italy Le Isole Projects Solar 282 0 1,250 2Q25 PPA
Slide 49: Solar PV - BESS
SOLAR PV - BESS Europe - USA - LATAM