Portland General Electric Co · NYSE:POR

Portland General Electric — Technical Presentation (July 2015)

30 slides from Portland General Electric's technical presentation, Jul 6, 2015

  1. Slide 1: Integrated Resource Plan 2016 Commission Workshop 1

    INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2016 Commission Workshop 1 Monday, July 6, 2015 © 2015 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: 2016 IRP Timeline

    2016 IRP Timeline July 6, 2015 Slide 2 Start IRP Start Public Process Draft IRP Final IRP Acknowledgement 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 PGE Preparation Public Meetings, PGE Analysis, IRP Draft Preparation and Public Review Final Comments and Acknowledgement  Load R

  3. Slide 3: Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Modeling

    Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Modeling

  4. Slide 4: IRP Objective

    111(d): IRP Objective July 6, 2015 Slide 4  To identify a portfolio strategy that performs well under a broad range of policy and economic futures.  To do this well, PGE must appreciate Cap. Load CO2 Costs how the Clean Air Act §111(d) will affect wholesale power markets  But, focusing narrowly o

  5. Slide 5: 111(d): Rule Uncertainty

    111(d): Rule Uncertainty July 6, 2015 Slide 5  PGE has timed its IRP analysis to mitigate rule uncertainty Spring 2015 Design 111(d) Analysis  Model 111(d) as written Sep ‘15 Summer 2015 Validate 111(d) Analysis  PGE anticipates final rule will provide additional certainty on:  The stringency of

  6. Slide 6: 111(d): Modeling Approach

    111(d): Modeling Approach July 6, 2015 Slide 6 215 lbs/MWh 1771 lbs/MWh • Identify eligible units 1 372 lbs/MWh 215 lbs/MWh 1714 lbs/MWh • Assign units to state groups 2 647 lbs/MWh 1322 1108 lbs/MWh lbs/MWh 537 • Apply a new lbs/MWh constraint to the 702 1048 3 appropriate group lbs/MWh lbs/MWh

  7. Slide 7: 111(d): Scenario Uncertainty

    111(d): Scenario Uncertainty July 6, 2015 Slide 7  Scope of Constraint:  State or Regional Plan? Scenario  Standard: Uncertainty  Rate or Mass based standard? Regional vs State  EE Expectations:  Available at EPA identified levels? EE Availability  Heat Rate Improvements: Rate vs Mass  Avail

  8. Slide 8: 111(d): Case Studies

    111(d): Case Studies July 6, 2015 Slide 8  PGE performed a review of the assumptions and results of national 111(d) analyses. Scenario Uncertainty  Key Takeaways: Regional vs State 1) Energy efficiency availability both in Oregon and regionally EE Availability will affect the rule’s cost of compli

  9. Slide 9: Scenario Analysis

    111(d): Scenario Analysis July 6, 2015 Slide 9  Four 111(d) Scenarios  Cost Eff EE: Regional load COST EFF EE EXPANDED EE forecasts adjusted by EE programs proportional to ETO cost effective A: State Rate B: State Rate energy efficiency level. Based Based RATE Implementation Implementation  Rate

  10. Slide 10: Interaction With Additional Policy

    111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy July 6, 2015 Slide 10  Existing policy modeled as written in law.  Future policy risk accounted for through CO2 price scenarios  Despite diversity of mechanisms, environmental policy in the utility sector is generally designed to limit greenhouse gas emi

  11. Slide 11: Interaction With Additional Policy

    111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy July 6, 2015 Slide 11  In an effort to sample the broad Eight Environmental Policy range of possible future Futures Tested in 2013 IRP, environmental policies: Table 9-5  2016 IRP will model scenarios where 111(d) is left final, replaced, or repealed whil

  12. Slide 12: Proposed Framework For Policy Futures

    111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures July 6, 2015 Slide 12 Policy Climate Policy 111(d) CO2 Price Existing 111(b) Policy Class Scenario Repealed Replaced Trigger Finalized None High Low Mid As CPP-A X X? X? X X Scenario Analysis 111(d) CPP-B X X? X? X X CPP-C X X? X? X X CPP-D X X? X? X X C

  13. Slide 13: 111(d): New Resource Constraints

    111(d): New Resource Constraints July 6, 2015 Slide 13  Consistent with the proposed rule, PGE’s analysis will not apply 111(d) constraints to new fossil Scenario fuel resources. Uncertainty  Rather  Incremental CO2 price futures will Regional vs State be studied. EE Availability  PGE will study

  14. Slide 14: 111(d): Recap & Discussion

    111(d): Recap & Discussion July 6, 2015 Slide 14  Thirteen proposed environmental policy futures used to evaluate a broad range of policy outcomes.  111(d) scenario analysis used to prepare for unknown state implementation of the final rule.  CO2 pricing used as a proxy for future state and feder

  15. Slide 15: EIM Comparative Study

    EIM Comparative Study

  16. Slide 16: EIM: Reliability and Resource Needs

    EIM: Reliability and Resource Needs July 6, 2015 Slide 16  Technology is enabling integration of renewable and distributed generation to boost resource diversity and support energy supply reliability EIM/SCED Analytics Resource diversity Markets Storage Wind Solar Hydro Wind Natural Gas Wind Biomas

  17. Slide 17: EIM: CAISO-EIM and NWPP - SCED

    EIM: CAISO-EIM and NWPP - SCED July 6, 2015 Slide 17 Address operational and commercial challenges affecting regional power system: – Manage transmission constraints, impacts of variable energy resources – Access regional balancing diversity Respect unique attributes of footprint, including: – Exten

  18. Slide 18: EIM: Comparative Study's Role in PGE Initiatives

    EIM: Comparative Study’s Role in PGE Initiatives July 6, 2015 Slide 18 Power Supply and Generation: 2014-2017 Initiatives Power Generation Market Operations Plants Participation Improved Cycling Capabilities Dynamic Dispatch Program and AGC Implemented Co-Chairing NWPP MC Initiative 15 Minute Schedu

  19. Slide 19: EIM: Committees and Utility Partners

    EIM: Committees and Utility Partners July 6, 2015 Slide 19 EIM Comparative Study with E3 Advisory Committee Utility/Market Technical Review Committee Operator Partners EIMSAC TRC Modeling Team John Crider OPUC Clint Kalich Avista Cameron Yourkowski Renewables Northwest Michael National Renewable Sco

  20. Slide 20: EIM: Past Studies Comparison

    EIM: Past Studies Comparison July 6, 2015 Slide 20 Focus of Analysis Components of Benefits Modeling Test Real-Time Join Join Renewable Tool Year Optimization Market Flex reserve Intra CAISO NWPP Interregional curtailment Creation (Diversity) regional EIM SCED      Grid View 2017 Hourly    

  21. Slide 21: EIM: PGE's Stages of Benefits

    EIM: PGE’s Stages of Benefits July 6, 2015 Slide 21 Analysis seeks to identify incremental benefit from each category NWPP-SCED 30/15 Full Wind BPA Scheduling Integration CAISO-EIM Reserve Pooling Reserve Pooling Current Full Integration of Variable PGE Joins an EIM/SCED 30/15 BPA Scheduling Energy

  22. Slide 22: EIM: Modeling Assumptions

    EIM: Modeling Assumptions July 6, 2015 Slide 22 Current CAISO-EIM NWPP-SCED Full Wind PGE integrates Wind PGE integrates Wind PGE integrates Wind Integration Market Day-Ahead Day-Ahead Day-Ahead Hour-Ahead Hour-Ahead Hour-Ahead Sub-Hourly 10 minute re-dispatch 10 minute re-dispatch 10 minute re-disp

  23. Slide 23: EIM: Differences in Study Footprints

    EIM: Differences in Study Footprints July 6, 2015 Slide 23 PGE CAISO-EIM NWPP-SCED The benefit for PGE is calculated by looking at costs before and after being part CAISO-EIM or NWPP-SCED

  24. Slide 24: EIM: Quantitative Diversity Benefits

    EIM: Quantitative Diversity Benefits July 6, 2015 Slide 24 Current CAISO-EIM NWPP-SCED Full Wind PGE integrates Wind PGE integrates Wind PGE integrates Wind Integration Market Day-Ahead Day-Ahead Day-Ahead Hour-Ahead Hour-Ahead Hour-Ahead Sub-Hourly 10 minute re-dispatch 10 minute re-dispatch 10 min

  25. Slide 25: EIM: Comparative Analysis Activities

    EIM: Comparative Analysis Activities July 6, 2015 Slide 25 Action Item Jan-Dec Coordinate with peer utilities on Base Case assumptions, gather & review generation and Jan – Mar:  transmission data for the footprints. Review identified scenarios with TRC and EIMSAC Conducting RFPs Jan – Jun: Assess

  26. Slide 26: Clean Power Plan – Appendix Slides

    Clean Power Plan – Appendix Slides

  27. Slide 27: What is it?

    111(d): What is it? July 6, 2015 Slide 27  Rulemaking issued by the EPA that is designed to substantially reduce CO2 emissions from the nation’s existing fleet of power plants. “I am following the direction of the Supreme Court, that they’ve given me three times, to say that carbon has to be addres

  28. Slide 28: 111(d): Compliance

    111(d): Compliance July 6, 2015 Slide 28  Under the proposed rule, states will require that eligible units meet EPA identified CO2 Olympia Helana emission goals.  The goals differ dramatically between states. Salem Boise  The goals apply only to units within the state. Regional compliance is opti

  29. Slide 29: 111(d): Case Studies

    111(d): Case Studies July 6, 2015 Slide 29  National Clean Power Plan SNL Rhg EVA PJM PGE simulation studies have relied upon mixed assumptions State - - + + +  Case studies included:  SNL Financial Regional + + - + -  Rhodium Group Rate - + - + +  Energy Ventures Analysis  PJM Mass + - + + +

  30. Slide 30: 111(d): Building Block Treatment

    111(d): Building Block Treatment July 6, 2015 Slide 30 Building Block Treatment EPA Proposed Rule PGE’s Proposed Analysis All steam units’ heat rates Unit heat rates unadjusted improved 6% CCCTs redispatched to Model determines CCCT 70% capacity factor dispatch 2x new renewables RPS floor with no li

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