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BP — Stats Review 2010 slide pack
27 slides from BP's investor presentation, June 2010
Slide 1: BP Statistical Review of World Energy: Recession and Recovery
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010 bp.com/statisticalreview Recession and Recovery Christof Rühl Group Chief Economist © BP 2010
Slide 2: Outline
Outline • Introduction • Recession and Recovery • Fuel by Fuel • Conclusions © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 3: Recession and Recovery
Recession and Recovery GDP World trade - exports q-o-q (ann.) growth y-o-y growth 4% 40% World 30% 2% OECD 20% Non-OECD 0% 10% -2% 0% Non-OECD -10% -4% OECD -20% -6% -30% -8% -40% 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Source: includes data from IMF and BP estimates. © BP 2010 BP Stati
Slide 4: GDP and Energy Consumption Growth
GDP and Energy Consumption Growth OECD Non-OECD y-o-y growth y-o-y growth 4% 8% GDP Energy 2% 6% 0% 4% -2% 2% -4% -6% 0% 2003-07 2008 2009 2003-07 2008 2009 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 5: Primary Energy Consumption
Primary Energy Consumption Growth 2009, Mtoe 300 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 World OECD China & India Other non-OECD © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 6: US Energy Consumption
US Energy Consumption Energy consumption Industrial energy demand y-o-y growth y-o-y growth 10% 10% Industry Oil Gas 5% Other 5% Industrial Production Coal Electricity 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% -25% -25% Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 2008 2009 Source: includes data from the EIA and U
Slide 7: Energy Prices
Energy Prices $/boe 140 Oil (Brent) 120 Gas (Henry Hub) Coal (Basket) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 8: Non-Fossil Fuels and Power Generation
Non-Fossil Fuels and Power Generation Total electricity generation Share of total generation TWh Nuclear 20,300 40% Renewables From Hydro fossil 30% fuels Renewables 20,100 Nuclear Hydro 20% 2008 2009 U 19,900 Ot K 10% 19,700 0% Decline Growth 2000 2003 2006 2009 © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of W
Slide 9: Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy Wind capacity Ethanol production GW Mtoe 200 40 US Germany RoW Spain China US RoW Brazil 150 30 Mexico North Sea 100 20 50 10 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: includes data from BTM Consult, EIA and F.O. Lichts. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World E
Slide 10: Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil Prices $/bbl Dated Brent Annual averages 150 120 90 60 30 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: includes data from Platts. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 11: Oil Consumption
Oil Consumption Annual growth Annual consumption Mb/d Mb/d 3 55 OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD OECD China Middle East Total 50 2 45 1 40 35 0 30 -1 25 -2 20 2003-07 2008 2009 1995 1999 2003 2007 © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 12: OPEC Supply Management
OPEC Supply Management y-o-y growth, Mb/d Global consumption Non-OPEC supply OPEC supply 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 Source: includes data from the IEA. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 13: OPEC Production
OPEC Production 2009 vs 2008 Annual average growth Mb/d Mb/d 0.8 Saudi UAE Arabia Kuwait 0.4 Algeria Libya Venezuela 0.0 Iran Angola -0.4 Nigeria Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait/UAE Ecuador -0.8 Other Iraq -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -1.2 Decrease Increase 2003-07 2008 2009 © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review
Slide 14: Non-OPEC Production
Non-OPEC Production 2009 vs 2008 Oil rig count and oil price Mb/d Index: Jan 2008 = 100 Mexico OECD 200 Brent price China FSU Rig count excl. N. America Norway Non-OECD US rig count 150 UK Canada Azerbaijan 100 Kazakhstan Brazil 50 Russia US -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 Decrease Increase Jan-08 Jan-0
Slide 15: Oil Inventories
Oil Inventories OECD commercial oil stocks Oil in floating storage Mbbls Mbbls Crude Distillate 2900 160 04-08 Range 2009 2010 2800 120 2700 80 2600 40 2500 2400 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Source: includes data from IEA. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 16: Refining Margins and Spare Capacity
Refining Margins and Spare Capacity Refining margins Spare capacity growth $/bbl y-o-y, Mb/d 10 4 BP GIM From new facilities 10-yr. Av. From lower crude runs 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 ytd Source: includes data from Parpinelli Technon and ESAI. © BP 2010 BP S
Slide 17: Crude Runs and Refinery Utilisation
Crude Runs and Refinery Utilisation Crude run growth Refinery utilisation y-o-y, Mb/d 2 90% non-OECD OECD 1 87% 0 84% -1 81% World OECD non-OECD -2 78% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon and ESAI. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World E
Slide 18: Natural Gas Market
Natural Gas Market Gas prices 2009 vs 2008 $/Mmbtu Bcm 12 40 AGIP Henry Hub 20 10 Other 0 8 -20 6 OECD -40 4 -60 FSU 2 -80 0 -100 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Consumption Production ytd Source: includes data from Platts and BMWi. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 19: US Natural Gas Production
US Natural Gas Production Production growth vs. rig count Total gas production y-o-y, Bcm Bcm 2008 600 30 2009 2007 550 20 Shale 2006 500 10 Coal bed methane 450 0 400 Other -10 350 2005 -20 300 700 900 1100 1300 1500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Gas rig count Source: includes data from the EIA and Bake
Slide 20: US Power Sector Fuel Switching
US Power Sector Fuel Switching Cost in power generation* Gas share of generation from gas/coal $/MWh 100 40% 2008 80 2009 30% 60 20% 40 10% 20 Central Appalachian coal Henry Hub 0 0% Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: includes data from the EIA and Platts. * Accounting for thermal efficiencies
Slide 21: Liquefied Natural Gas
Liquefied Natural Gas LNG exports by basin LNG import growth by region Bcm y-o-y, Bcm 250 20 200 Middle East Europe 10 150 Pacific Basin Other 100 0 Asia 50 Atlantic Basin 0 -10 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2007 2008 2009 Source: includes data from Cedigaz. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energ
Slide 22: Gas-On-Gas Competition
Gas-On-Gas Competition Europe - 2009 vs 2008 FSU - 2009 vs 2008 Bcm Bcm 20 20 Net LNG 0 0 Net -20 pipeline Cons. -20 Cons. Prod. -40 -40 Prod. -60 -60 -80 -80 -100 -100 Source: includes data from Cedigaz. © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 23: Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves
Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves Oil Natural Gas Trillion bbls Trillion m3 Canadian oil sands 2.0 Other 200 OECD OECD Other FSU Middle East OPEC FSU 1.5 150 Mexico North Sea 1.0 100 0.5 50 0.0 0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Note: Canadian Oil Sands are ‘remaining es
Slide 24: Coal Consumption and Production
Coal Consumption and Production Consumption growth 2009 production changes ex-China Mtoe Mtoe 200 India Indonesia 100 Australia Vietnam 0 Poland China Kazakhstan -100 India OECD Russia Rest of World US -200 2003-07 2008 2009 -60 -40 -20 0 20 © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Slide 25: Coal Prices and Indian Ocean Exports
Coal Prices and Indian Ocean Exports Coal prices Export shares $/tonne 200 40% to China to India 150 30% 100 20% 50 10% Japan Steam coal Qinhuangdao Spot Newcastle, Australia 0 0% 08 09 08 09 08 09 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Australia Indonesia South Africa Source: includes data from McClosk
Slide 26: Chinese Coal Consumption
Chinese Coal Consumption Chinese GDP, coal and electricity 2009 coal consumption by use y-o-y growth y-o-y growth 20% 20% GDP Coal Electricity 15% 15% Total 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2003-07 2008 2009 Cement Steel Other Power Source: includes coal use estimates based on data from the National Bureau of St
Slide 27: Conclusion
Conclusion • It’s the Economy • Maintaining growth has been energy intensive • Long term trends in major fuel markets accelerated during recession and recovery • So did the global re-allocation of energy resources, supporting growth in the developing world © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World En