Selvaag Bolig Asa · OSL:SBO
Selvaag Bolig Asa — Q2 2021 Earnings Presentation
76 slides from Selvaag Bolig Asa's earnings presentation, Aug 18, 2021
Slide 1: Q2 2021
Q2 2021 Oslo, 18 August 2021 Sverre Molvik, CEO Christopher Brunvoll, CFO
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary 2
Slide 3: Highlights Q2 2021
Highlights Q2 2021 · Solid Q2 results considering few deliveries · H1’21 sales value up 38% compared to H1'20 · Increased number of units under construction · Expanded land bank in Stockholm, expected sales start in 2022 · Dividend of NOK 2.00 per share* for H1’21 Completed, ongoing and upcoming pro
Slide 4: Key financials Q2 and H1 2021
Key financials Q2 and H1 2021 Q2 2021 First half year 2021 394 22.3 962 22.6 Operating revenues Operating revenues Adjusted EBITDA* margin Adjusted EBITDA* margin NOK million NOK million Per cent Per cent 881 16.9 1 739 17.0 Operating revenues (NGAAP) EBITDA** margin (NGAAP) Operating revenues (NGAA
Slide 5: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 6: Operational news
Operational news • A leading provider of shared facility concepts • Early mover advantage Pluss concept - Service and maintenance operated by in house subsidiary with 20 employees providing - Built competence through continuous learning and development processes competitive - High customer satisfact
Slide 7: Sales value and units sold
Sales value and units sold Sales value Number of units sold per quarter NOK million Units 1 242 1 010 910 871 696 5.1 5.1 5.1 Q4 4.9 5.0 Q3 210 173 165 181 Q2 142 Q1 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total sales value Average sales value # of units 355 365 453 306 421 sold YtD N
Slide 8: Rolling sales value and units sold
Rolling sales value and units sold Sales value 12-month rolling Units sold 12-month rolling NOK million Units 4 034 894 888 3 859 816 3 457 760 743 3 151 2 997 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 767 798 683 605 624 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Total sales value Average sales value *T
Slide 9: Construction starts and completions
Construction starts and completions Construction starts and completions per quarter Units 286 254 212 196 134 142 120 104 95 31 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Number of construction starts Number of units completed Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 9
Slide 10: Units under construction and completions
Units under construction and completions Sales value units under construction Expected completions per quarter NOK million Units 6 660 6 627 6 749 6 327 6 413 334 318 1 357 1 342 1 349 1 371 208 1 310 132 86 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Sales value Number of units unde
Slide 11: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 12: Income statement highlights Q2 2021 (IFRS)
Income statement highlights Q2 2021 (IFRS) Operating revenues (IFRS) · 132 units delivered (122) NOK million - 46 units from share of JVs (36) · Revenues NOK 394m (436) 1 347 - Other revenues NOK 13m (13) · Project costs NOK 305m (337) 706 - Of which NOK 9m is interest (14) 568 436 394 · Other costs
Slide 13: Q2 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV
Q2 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV Operating revenues (IFRS) NOK million · 132 units delivered (122) · Revenues NOK 645 (670) 1 438 - Other revenues NOK 17m (17) · Project costs NOK 502m (534) 861 - Of which NOK 20m is interest (23) 670 636 645 · Other costs NOK 57m (75) ·
Slide 14: H1 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV
H1 2021 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV Operating revenues (IFRS) NOK million · 256 units delivered (236) 2 573 - 56 units from share of JVs (110) 2 299 · Revenues NOK 1 281m (1 254) - Other revenues NOK 36m (34) 1 310 1 254 1 281 · Adjusted EBITDA* NOK 241m (240) · EBITDA* NOK
Slide 15: Income statement highlights Q2 2021 (NGAAP)
Income statement highlights Q2 2021 (NGAAP) Revenues and EBITDA margin (NGAAP)* 12 month-rolling revenues (NGAAP)* NOK million NOK million 949 858 881 3 395 3 271 3 329 3 317 803 3 216 707 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 21% 19% 18% 17% 17% Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Operating r
Slide 16: Project margin development
Project margin development NOK million 3 637 3 277 3 271 3 264 3 342 3 194 3 239 3 179 3 204 3 215 3 165 3 038 2 931 2 929 2 683 2 586 2 377 29% 30% 28% 29% 28% 27% 28% 28% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 25% 24% 23% Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q
Slide 17: Cash flow development Q2 2021
Cash flow development Q2 2021 NOK million 74 25 39 280 538 484 698 41 580 56 Cash and cash Profit (loss) Income taxes Share of Changes in Changes in CF from Net change in Dividends paid Cash and cash equivalents at before income paid profits/(losses) inventories trade investment borrowings to equity
Slide 18: Balance sheet highlights Q2 2021
Balance sheet highlights Q2 2021 Balance sheet composition NOK million · Book value of equity NOK 24.3 per share 7 000 - Equity ratio 35.7% 6 000 Non-current assets · Changes from Q1 2021: Equity 5 000 - Inventories increased by NOK 509m - Trade and Other receivables decreased by 4 000 NOK 51m Non-c
Slide 19: Inventories (property) Q2 2021
Inventories (property) Q2 2021 Q2 21 vs Q1 21 Inventory value development NOK million 102 · Land value up NOK 28m 111 124 120 182 - Mainly due to buy back of land from UP · Work in progress up NOK 560m 3 543 3 078 3 172 2 983 - Due to high ongoing production, construction 2 911 starts, combined with
Slide 20: Debt structure
Debt structure Interest-bearing debt at 30.6.21 Drawn at NOK million 30.6.21 Interest rate Loan facility (NOKm) margin* Construction loan facilities from 1 2 012 1.75% - 2.60% a range of Nordic credit institutions 2 Land loans Urban Property** 739 3.75%*** NOK 2 012 Land loan facilities from a range
Slide 21: Earnings and dividend per share since IPO
Earnings and dividend per share since IPO Annual dividend and earnings per share Accumulated dividend and earnings per share 48.89 47.47 Earnings per share Earnings per share 45.80 7.04 43.80 Dividend per share Dividend per share 6.14 6.00 5.31 31.14 4.50 4.35 24.10 3.50 3.21 2.95 3.00 3.00 17.96 2.
Slide 22: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m 770 739 655 613 610 567 520 530 495 479 471 397 401 27% 354 356 366 25% 335 326 301 22% 21% 265 253 20% 20% 19% 20% 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 14% 11% 12% 12% 10% Q2 16 Q3 1
Slide 23: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 24: Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need
Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need Units 6 000 5 000 Forecasted housing need of ~4 000 units per year (medium growth) Average number of 4 000 completions (2006-20): ~3 000 units 3 000 2 000 1 800 1 700** 1 650 1 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 202
Slide 25: Estimated completions in Viken ex Buskerud & Østfold
Estimated completions in Viken ex Buskerud & Østfold Units 6 000 Forecasted housing need of ~4 900 units per year (medium growth) 5 000 Average # of completions (2006-20): 4 300 4 000 ~3 750 units 3 400 3 000 2 000 1 650** 1 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Actual
Slide 26: Share of newbuild and population growth by region
Share of newbuild and population growth by region Share of newbuild and population growth by region 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Viken and Oslo Mid Norway South and West Northern Norway Other Eastern Norway Norway 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 Share of population growth Sour
Slide 27: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Oslo – 1.1.21 - 30.6.21 Viken ex. Buskerud and Østfold – 1.1.21 - 30.6.21 Units Units 2 353 2 362 1 271 1 359 3 181 3 172 993 905 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available 31.12.2020 market* 30.06.2021 31.12.2020 market* 30.06.2021 Source: SA -
Slide 28: Newbuild market update
Newbuild market update Bergen – 1.1.21 - 30.6.21 Trondheim – 1.1.21 - 30.6.21 Stavanger & Sandnes – 1.1.21 - 30.6.21 Units Units Units 826 1 091 495 488 243 566 1 103 1 110 848 855 780 845 Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available Available Supplied to Sold Available
Slide 29: Oslo second-hand market update
Oslo second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 30.6, 2010-21 Inventory 1.8, 2010-21 Units Units 14 000 6 000 12 000 5 000 10 000 4 000 8 000 3 000 6 000 2 000 4 000 1 000 2 000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202
Slide 30: Bergen second-hand market update
Bergen second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 30.6, 2010-21 Inventory 1.8, 2010-21 Units Units 4 000 2 000 3 000 1 500 2 000 1 000 1 000 500 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Eiendomsverdi. 30
Slide 31: Trondheim second-hand market update
Trondheim second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 30.6, 2010-21 Inventory 1.8, 2010-21 Units Units 4 000 2 000 3 000 1 500 2 000 1 000 1 000 500 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Eiendomsverdi. 31
Slide 32: Stavanger-area second-hand market update
Stavanger-area* second-hand market update Units sold 1.1 - 30.6, 2010-21 Inventory 1.8, 2010-21 Units Units 4 000 2 000 3 000 1 500 2 000 1 000 1 000 500 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Eiendomsverdi.
Slide 33: Regional price development 1.1-31.7, 2012-21
Regional price* development 1.1-31.7, 2012-21 Oslo Bergen 17.1% 11.0% 9.8% 8.8% 9.7% 5.4% 5.4% 9.5% 3.1% 8.8% 8.2% 9.0% 7.8% 8.0% 7.8% 7.2% 0.5% 6.5% 6.4% -6.4% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 • YTD increase of 3.1% = NOK 2 700 per
Slide 34: Agenda
Agenda Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Slide 35: Outlook
Outlook · Normalized market sentiment · Attractive projects for sale in all the markets where we operate · Possible sales starts in H2 · Sinsenveien in Oslo (total 350 units JV) · Ringve Pluss in Trondheim (total 600 units) · New phases in ongoing projects in all regions · Targeting new areas for fu
Slide 36: Summary
Summary · Solid Q2 results considering few deliveries · H1’21 sales value up 38% compared to H1'20 · Increased number of units under construction · Expanded land bank in Stockholm, expected sales start in 2022 · Dividend of NOK 2.00 per share* for H1’21 * Pay-out on August 31, 2021 36
Slide 37: Thank you for your attention – follow us online!
Thank you for your attention – follow us online! Next event: 3rd quarter 2021 @SelvaagAksjen 11 November 2021
Slide 38: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 39: Return on equity (IFRS)
Return on equity (IFRS) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) 12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%) Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m 1 799 1 639 1 558 1 524 58% 53% 51% 739 770 739 45% 613 655 610 613 655 530 495
Slide 40: Earnings and dividend per share since IPO
Earnings and dividend per share since IPO Annual dividend and earnings per share Accumulated dividend and earnings per share 48.89 47.47 Earnings per share Earnings per share 45.80 7.04 43.80 Dividend per share Dividend per share 6.14 6.00 5.31 31.14 4.50 4.35 24.10 3.50 3.21 2.95 3.00 3.00 17.96 2.
Slide 41: Dividend policy
Dividend policy Revised dividend policy: Selvaag Bolig’s ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners. The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 60 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the com
Slide 42: Share performance since IPO in June 2012
Share performance since IPO in June 2012 NOK 70 60 50 40 30 20 0.50 1.20 0.70 0.80 0.65 0.95 1.20 1.80 2.00 2.50 2.00 22.00 3.00 2.00 10 0 Share price Dividend Source: Oslo Børs. 42
Slide 43: Share information
Share information 5 000 4 000 · Total number of shares: 93.8 million # of shareholders · Number of shareholders: 4 665 (4 361)* 3 000 - 20 largest controlling 80.2% (80.1) - Selvaag AS largest shareholder - 53.5% 2 000 · Trading - 4.7 million shares during the quarter (4.6) 1 000 - Share turnover to
Slide 44: Largest shareholders at 30.6, 2021
Largest shareholders at 30.6, 2021 Shareholder # of shares % share SELVAAG AS 50 180 087 53.5% Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB * 7 204 973 7.7% VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAM BA 3 117 700 3.3% PARETO INVEST AS 2 965 309 3.2% JPM organ Chase Bank, N.A., London * 1 960 535 2.1% State Street Bank an
Slide 45: Addressing the long term housing need
Addressing the long term housing need · Nearly 60 000 homes over the last 70 years Trondheim 460 units · Housing for all Bergen 787 units Greater-Oslo · Focus on fast growing urban regions 8 825 units Stockholm Stavanger 610 units · Large projects with more than 150 units 746 units 45
Slide 46: Positioned to realize large projects in Norway's four largest growing urban areas
Positioned to realize large projects in Norway’s four largest growing urban areas Land-bank strategy Land bank exposure Geographical spread • Acquire the right mix of zoned and un-zoned land in suitable locations • Land acquisitions in defined core areas in co-operation with Urban Property • High de
Slide 47: Change in needs calls for new concepts
Change in needs calls for new concepts Selvaag Pluss • Lifestyle concept • Attractive common areas • Professional hosting services • Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier • Guestrooms for family and friends • Work-out- and fitness centre Selvaag City • Urban lifest
Slide 48: Upcoming projects 2022 to 2024
Upcoming projects 2022 to 2024 Lørenskog stasjonsby | Skårerbyen | Greater Oslo Bjerke | Oslo Fornebu | Greater Oslo Greater Oslo · ~ 1 100 units total · ~ 1 200 units total · ~ 2 000 units total (50/50 JV) · ~ 1 500 units total · ~ 250 Pluss units · ~ 300 Pluss units · ~ 500 Pluss units · ~ 250 Plu
Slide 49: Upcoming large regional projects
Upcoming large regional projects RingvePluss | Trondheim Sandsli | Bergen Elveparken | Stavanger- Fredrikstad | Greater Oslo area · ~ 600 units total · ~ 600 units total · ~ 1 500 units · ~ 600 units total · ~ 400 Pluss units · ~ 250 Pluss units · ~ 400 Pluss units · ~ 250 Pluss units · Expected sal
Slide 50: Land bank acquisitions
Land bank acquisitions • Land bank replacement secure long-term Land bank exposure growth Trondheim 460 units • Persistent presence in established areas in Norway Bergen 787 units Greater-Oslo • Increasing exposure in new growth area Stavanger 8 825 units Stockholm 610 units 746 units Lilleakerveien
Slide 51: Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 30.6.21
Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 30.6.21 Lørenskog 1 976 units Bærum 2 188 units Lørenskog Stasjonsby 625 units Avløs 504 units Kjelsås 315 units Skårer bolig 746 units Ballerud 210 units Kjelsåsveien 161 315 units LSV 300 units Eyvind Lyches vei 120 units Løren/Økern/Ensjø 321 units Pallplasse
Slide 52: Land bank in Stavanger area at 30.6.21
Land bank in Stavanger area at 30.6.21 Stavanger 206 units Lervig brygge 206 units Sola 154 units Jaasund 154 units 154 units 206 Stavanger units Sandnes 386 units Aase gård 51 units Sola Sandnes Vågen 300 units Luratoppen 35 units Sandnes 386 units *The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s shar
Slide 53: Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 30.6.21
Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 30.6.21 Trondheim 460 units Heimdal 40 units Haakon VII gate 4 290 units Migosenteret 130 units Sweden 460 units Stockholm 610 units Lövholmen 50 units Bergen 787 units Årstadfältet 140 units Sandsliåsen 57 133 units Sandsliåsen 59 80 units Finland Sla
Slide 54: Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021
Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021 Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner. • How it works: • Benefits for Selvaag Bolig: - U
Slide 55: Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed for land
Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed in Selvaag Bolig for land Residential development value chain: cooperation between Selvaag Bolig and Urban Property Acquisition of land Zoning Sales start Construction start Delivery 6 – 36 months 6 – 12 months 3 – 9 months 12 – 24 mont
Slide 56: Substantial portfolio for development
Substantial portfolio for development Total land bank portfolio at 30.6.2021 Units 5 870 11 330 5 460 Total land bank Options and obligations to acquire Land bank in balance sheet 56
Slide 57: Valuation of remaining land bank
Valuation of remaining land bank* NOK million 582 1 491 909 Book value 31.12.2020 Gap Valuation: 60 Grader Næringsmegling (Nov 2020) * Part of SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction. 57
Slide 58: Value of units sold - gross and net
Value of units sold - gross and net Sales value of units sold NOK million 1 393 1 431 1 314 1 320 209 1 177 1 104 1 031 914 920 927 849 862 861 859 788 710 696 660 487 443 1 183 394 1 242 1 106 999 1 010 840 910 871 751 771 756 705 696 633 690 632 693 614 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4
Slide 59: Number of units sold - gross and net
Number of units sold - gross and net Number of units sold Units 209 270 276 274 238 216 225 207 203 201 209 187 192 196 182 186 180 487 169 158 443 394 243 248 210 199 190 178 185 181 182 178 173 165 168 159 164 148 140 142 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 2
Slide 60: Income statement IFRS
Income statement IFRS (figures in NOK million) Q2 2021 Q2 2020 1H 2021 1H 2020 2020 Total operating revenues 394.2 435.5 962.0 644.6 2 698.0 Project expenses (304.8) (336.8) (706.0) (470.7) (1 967.6) Other operating expenses (49.9) (62.6) (104.6) (114.3) (256.8) Associated companies and joint ventur
Slide 61: Balance sheet
Balance sheet (figures in NOK million) Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2020 2020 Intangible assets 383.4 383.4 383.4 383.4 Property, plant and equipment 6.8 7.1 5.4 7.3 Investments in associated companies and joint ventures 438.6 407.9 378.8 406.9 Other non-current assets 237.8 255.9 254.3 228.1 Total non-curren
Slide 62: Cash flow statement
Cash flow statement (figures in NOK million) 1H 2021 1H 2020 2020 Net cash flow from operating activities (503.0) 959.6 1 615.7 Net cash flow from investment activities 35.7 377.5 413.8 Net cash flow from financing activities 162.1 (1 837.0) (2 322.9) Net change in cash and cash equivalents (305.2)
Slide 63: Operational highlights – key operating figures
Operational highlights – key operating figures Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Units sold 142 178 199 248 173 Construction starts 31 196 254 134 142 Units completed 104 212 286 95 120 Units deliv ered 122 212 272 124 132 Units under construction 1 357 1 342 1 310 1 349 1 371 Proportion of sold units u
Slide 64: EBITDA Q2 2021
EBITDA Q2 2021 Property (figures in NOK million) development Other Total Operating revenues 868.5 12.6 881.1 Project expenses (680.0) (0.1) (680.1) Other operating expenses (12.4) (40.1) (52.4) EBITDA (percentage of completion) 176.2 (27.6) 148.5 Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial e
Slide 65: Norwegian housing market
Norwegian housing market · Low risk for housebuilders · Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts · Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a minimum 10% cash deposit · High level of home ownership · 85% (one of the worl
Slide 66: Regional price development July, 2010-21
Regional price* development July, 2010-21 Oslo Bergen 6.1% 2.5% 2.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% -0.2% -0.8% -1.4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Tro
Slide 67: Total household debt and homeownership
Total household debt and homeownership 257% 247% 236% 223% 91% 80% 200% 82% 79% 74% 76% 75% 71% 71% 72% 69% 69% 64% 65% 64% 61% 149% 55% 142% 51% 131% 123% 122% 117% 42% 105% 98% 96% 90% 88% 83% 76% 76% Household debt in % of net disposable income (2020) Homeownership rate (2019) Source: OECD, Stati
Slide 68: Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs
Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs Annual population growth* by age Number of people by age in 2020 6% 200 000 150 000 4% 100 000 2% 50 000 0% 0 -2% OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM OSLO STAVANGER BERGEN TRONDHEIM 19-23 24-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 16-23 24-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65-7
Slide 69: Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-21)
Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-21) Price development (rebased 1.1.2005) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Norway Oslo Bergen Stavanger-area* Trondheim Source: Eiendomsverdi. * Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger. 69
Slide 70: Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus
Increasing share of population growth in Oslo and Akershus 55% 55% 45% 43% 42% 40% 25.3 % 38% 35% 35% 25.1 % 35% 24.9 % 33% 24.8 % 24.6 % 24.5 % 24.3 % 24.0 % 24.2 % 23.9 % 23.7 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total pop
Slide 71: Immigration increases demand over time
Immigration increases demand over time Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Slide 72: Norway – relatively limited volatility
Norway – relatively limited volatility GDP growth 2013 - 2023e Unemployment 2013 - 2023e 10% 10% 8% 5% 6% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 4% -5% 2% -10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Norway Sweden Denmark Germany UK Norway Sweden Denmark Ge
Slide 73: Norway – moving back to normal in through 2021
Norway – moving back to normal in through 2021 Real economy 2019 - 2024e Demand 2019 - 2024e 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% -5% -2% -4% -10% 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024E 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e GDP GDP mainland Unemployment rate Mainland demand Household consumption Housing investment Wages &
Slide 74: Example project calculations before and after
Example project calculations before and after PROJECT CALCULATIONS PROJECT CALCULATIONS 1 BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY 2 AFTER URBAN PROPERTY Figures for illustration purposes only MNOK % MNOK % Sales revenue 348.5 100.0% 348.5 100.0% Construction cost 195.8 56.2% 195.8 56.2% Land cost 69.7 20.0% 85.2 24.4
Slide 75: Margin development through project stages
Margin development through project stages* 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS 0 MONTHS Acquire and refine Contracting, marketing Project design Construction and sales Delivery to customers land for development and pre-sales Project margin 20% 15% Project margin 10% 18% 5% 0% · L
Slide 76: SELVAAG BOLIG
SELVAAG BOLIG