National Bank Of Greece S.a. · ATHEX:ETE
National Bank Of Greece — Debt Investor Presentation (January 2024)
47 slides from National Bank Of Greece's debt investor presentation, January 2024
Slide 1: Senior Preferred Issuance Roadshow Presentation
Senior Preferred Issuance Roadshow Presentation January 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Not an Offer for Sale This presentation, which has been prepared by the National Bank of Greece (the Bank), is confidential and is being made available to selected recipients only and solely for the information of such recipients. This presentation may not be published, redistributed, tra
Slide 3: Table of Contents
Table of Contents 1 Senior Preferred Issuance 2 Key Financial Highlights 3 Profitability 4 Capital and Liquidity 5 Asset Quality 6 Macro 7 Appendix 2
Slide 4: Senior Preferred Issuance
1 Senior Preferred Issuance 3
Slide 5: Transaction overview
Transaction overview Euro Benchmark Senior Preferred 5NC4 Reg S Transaction • Issuer: National Bank of Greece S.A. (“NBG”, the “Issuer” or the “Bank”) Offering • EUR-denominated, Reg S Bearer, Senior Preferred 5NC4 Notes • Expected Issue Ratings: Ba1 (Moody’s) • Issuance under NBG’s 5bn GMTN Program
Slide 6: 5NC4 Senior Preferred: Indicative Termsheet (1/2)
5NC4 Senior Preferred: Indicative Termsheet1 (1/2) Issuer: National Bank of Greece S.A. (Ticker: ETEGA) Issuer Ratings: Ba1 (Moody’s, Positive) / BB (S&P, Positive) / BB (Fitch, Positive) Expected Issue Ratings: Ba1 (Moody’s) Status: Unsubordinated MREL Notes (as defined in the Issuer's Base Prospec
Slide 7: 5NC4 Senior Preferred: Indicative Termsheet (2/2)
5NC4 Senior Preferred: Indicative Termsheet1 (2/2) Applicable. Upon a notice of not less than 15 nor more than 30 days being given by the Issuer, the Issuer may redeem the Notes, in whole but not in part, at their Early Redemption Amount together with accrued interest (if any) to (but excluding) the
Slide 8: Key Financial Highlights
2. | Key Financial Highlights
Slide 9: Continuous improvement of profitability and balance sheet metrics
Continuous improvement of profitability and balance sheet metrics Core income €1.913m 9M23 Core €855m PE Loans2 +€1,5b 9M23 PAT1 Profitability and +59% yoy 3,0x yoy at €28,0b +5% yoy Operating performance 31% 9M23 Core 17,8% 9M23 €4,4b C:CI RoTE Disbursements -17ppts yoy +10,9pps yoy +9% yoy 17,9% L
Slide 10: Core income momentum drives 9M23 profitability 3x higher yoy
Core income momentum drives 9M23 profitability 3x higher yoy Profitability “jaws” | € m Core profitability | € m 683 646 584 2,1x 1.311 yoy 510 Core 623 436 2,0x PPI 481 yoy 398 448 Core 373 383 Loan & other -175 -19% Income -216 288 impairments 239 204 Core PPI 181 3,0x 855 yoy 222 OpEx 192 194 197
Slide 11: Sustained core income momentum drives 3Q23 RoTE to 20,8%
Sustained core income momentum drives 3Q23 RoTE to 20,8% Cost to Core Income | % Core PAT | € m 346 52% 288 49% 45% 220 43% 190 142 34% 73 31% 30% 69 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 EPS¹ | € Core RoTE | % 1,51 20,8% 18,0% 1,26 0,96 14,3% 13,1% 0,83 10,2% 0,62 0,
Slide 12: NPE ratio down to 3,6% aided by the latest NPE disposal transaction
NPE ratio down to 3,6% aided by the latest NPE disposal transaction NPE flow¹ (€ b) NPE decomposition¹ (€ b) FNPEs >30dpd & other impaired FNPE <30dpd 90+ dpd Reflecting the new NPE cleanup transaction 2 1,8 1,6 -0,6 1,6 c45% of NPE stock <30dpd 0,1 1,1 0,1 0,2 1,1 0,6 0,1 0,5 1,0 0,5 1,1 0,9 0,5 FY
Slide 13: NBG is well above the interim 1/1/24 MREL target
NBG is well above the interim 1/1/24 target and will be complying with 1/1/25 target PF for the transaction; modest net issuance is required to reach the final target Evolution of MREL capacity vs targets (% of RWAs) MREL Target CBR Own funds Eligible Liabilities Including the Proposed Benchmark Tra
Slide 14: Key Economic Forecasts
S&P upgraded Greece to investment grade in October 2023, followed by Fitch in December 2023, with Moody’s lagging by 1 notch Greece Sovereign Ba1 Stable BBB- Stable BBB- Stable Rating Date of Last Report 11 Oct 2023 20 Oct 2023 1 Dec 2023 Date of Next Review 15 Mar 2024 19 Apr 2024 31 May 2024 The f
Slide 15: NBG's outlook is positive in Moody's, S&P and Fitch
NBG’s outlook is positive in Moody’s, S&P and Fitch – paving the way for potential further upgrades Current Rating • NBG’s BCA (ba2) reflects, among others, (i) the • NBG was recently upgraded due to, among others, • Fitch recently revised NBG’s outlook to positive, significantly improved NPEs, (ii)
Slide 16: Profitability
3 | Profitability 15
Slide 17: "Fortress balance sheet" is a unique comparative advantage
“Fortress balance sheet” is a unique comparative advantage Group Assets1 (€ b) Group Liabilities1 (€ b) 1,5 Interbank Excess liquidity at €7,4b, factoring Cash & reserves 6,5 in TLTRO repayment and net interbank position Interbank 2,3 ✓ c.77,5% Retail ✓ c.19,2% Corporate Securities portfolio ✓ c.3,3
Slide 18: 9M23 Group COP up by nearly 3x
9M23 Group COP up by nearly 3x, driven by sustained positive topline momentum and sustained cost containment Group core operating profit bridge (€ m) Group operating profit decomposition (€ b) COP margin (bps) 176 471 +295bps yoy +€15m yoy incl. impact of merchant 2,8x yoy acquiring deconsolidation
Slide 19: Strong NII momentum supported by base rate driven loan repricing
Strong NII momentum supported by base rate driven loan repricing Domestic NII (€ m), Group NIM (bps) Domestic NII breakdown (€ m) +25bps qoq NII 328 401 474 529 563 297 322 NIM¹ (Group) 260 212 173 Loans (PE) 264 336 378 178 +42bps Loans (NPE) 50 qoq 3M Euribor Securities, funding & other (avg) Depo
Slide 20: Disbursements pick up to nearly €2b and domestic PEs expand
Disbursements pick up to nearly €2b and domestic PEs expand by +€0,6b qoq Greek performing loan evolution (€ b) Bank Loan disbursements¹ (€ b) 9M22 9M23 +9% yoy 4,0 4,4 27,6 27,6 28,0 27,4 +€1,5b 26,5 +5% yoy 2,7 +€2,0b 2,1 +12% yoy 1,9 +40% qoq 16,9 18,0 18,1 18,1 18,9 1,9 Total Corporate 2,4 1,4 1
Slide 21: Loan pass through rate remains at 70%
Loan pass through rate remains at 70% driving PE lending spreads lower Greek PE lending spreads¹ (bps) Greek NPE NII%, Loan yield Total 295 275 269 260 234 Performing ² Dom. NPE NII⁴ /Dom. NII % 5,9% 4,4% 3M Euribor 50 178 264 336 378 3,5% (avg) 1,2% 761 FY20 FY21 FY22 9M23 715 680 Consumer³ 649 630
Slide 22: Domestic fees grow by +17% yoy on a like-for-like basis
Domestic fees grow by +17% yoy on a like-for-like basis, driven by retail and corporate businesses Domestic fees (€ m) Domestic retail fees decomposition (€ m) Fees/Assets 42bps 49bps YoY +17% yoy YoY +21% yoy ex merchant ex merchant 262 +7% acquiring 146 +9% acquiring 246 134 18 18 +17% 24 Deposits
Slide 23: Cost discipline continues: digital transformation drives FTE optimization
Cost discipline continues: Personnel and G&As +c.1% yoy; digital transformation drives FTE optimization Group Cost-to-Core Income (%) Group headcount¹ evolution (# k) Cost/ core 19,8 income % 48,3 31,4 58.9 29,6 56.9 55.2 -16,9ppts yoy 7,8 6,7 at Bank level Personnel cost/ 10,8 10,1 core income % 25
Slide 24: Capital and Liquidity
4| Capital and Liquidity 23
Slide 25: Strong profitability sustains capital generation; CET1 up c.220bps ytd
Strong profitability sustains capital generation at c.60bps in 3Q23; CET1 up by c.220bps ytd 3Q23 FL capital movement1 20,3% 18,3% +c0,8% +c0,0% Buffer CAD FL 16,8% over 5,76% -c0,2% OCR Includes DTC 14,57% amortization CET1 8,12% buffer CBR 3,57% 9,76% P2R 3,00% 17,3% 17,9% CET1 FL 15,7% 3,57% 1,69
Slide 26: Net cash position of €7,4b underlines NBG's liquidity advantage
Net cash position of €7,4b underlines NBG’s liquidity advantage; TLTRO balance down to just € 1,9b in 3Q23 TLTRO, Cash & reserves, Net Interbank (€ b) Funding structure (%) TLTRO NBG is a net lender in the 4% Cash & reserves Group Deposits of interbank market Net Interbank 3% c€56b comprise 17,6 Cur
Slide 27: Domestic deposits continue strong, up by +€1,1b ytd
Domestic deposits continue strong, up by +€1,1b ytd despite corporate drawdowns in the beginning of the year Group deposits evolution (€ b) Greek deposit spreads vs avg 3M euribor (bps) Group 55,7 55,2 54,8 55,7 56,3 +€1,1b ytd SEE & 1,7 1,8 1,8 1,9 1,9 Demand Other 373 331 260 176 Average 54,4 49 b
Slide 28: Deposits keep increasing; Deposit mix remains supportive
Deposits keep increasing (+€1,1b ytd); Deposit mix remains supportive NBG Deposit¹ flows ytd (€ b) NBG Deposit¹ mix (%) +€1,1b Corporate liquidity drawdowns 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 12% 12% 16% 18% 19% 2 other Time Core 84% 84% 81% 80% -€0,4b 79% +€0,8b +€0,6b Unchanged in October compared 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 to S
Slide 29: Asset Quality
5 | Asset Quality 28
Slide 30: Near zero organic formation drives down gross NPEs to c.€1b
Near zero organic formation complemented by the new NPE transaction drive down gross NPEs to € c.1b Domestic NPE stock per category (€ b) NPE balance change (€ b, Bank) o/w: €0,2b or c40% <30dpd 1,1 o/w: €0,2b or 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 c85% <30dpd NPE inflows (+) 0,7 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 Curings -0,1 -0,2 0,
Slide 31: Remaining NPE stock at €1,1b
Remaining NPE stock at € 1,1b Domestic NPE ratios and coverage | 3Q23 Domestic forborne stock (€ b) | 3Q23 Collateral 69% 72% 71% coverage1 FNPE<30 dpd 0,5 NPE ratio 5% FPE 1,5 3,7% FNPE 31-90dpd 3,6% €2,1b 3% 0,0 FNPE >90dpd 0,1 NPE 92% coverage2 95% 93,5% 93,1% Retail Corporate Total Domestic Tota
Slide 32: Sector leading coverage levels across all stages
Sector leading coverage levels across all stages Gross loans1 stage evolution (€ b) S21 ratio and coverage (%) S31 ratio and coverage (%) Δ yoy Stage 3 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,2 -0,8 o/w: 14,1% €1,5b FPEs 13,8% Stage 2 €1,7b SICR €0,3b +30dpd 12,3% 4,6 4,5 4,1 3,5 -1,0 10,7% Ratio Stage 12 6,2% 5,3% 5,5% 26,9
Slide 33: Macro
6| Macro 32
Slide 34: On track for another year of overperformance
On track for another year of overperformance Economic activity maintained a healthy pace of expansion despite weakening Greek GDP decelerated in 3Q23 but continued to external conditions and tightened monetary and fiscal policy. outpace the euro area average GDP growth slowed to a still solid 2,1% y
Slide 35: Strong labor market conditions set the stage for investment-led growth
Strong labor market conditions, solid profitability and sizeable liquidity buffers set the stage for sustained investment-led growth Encouraging signs from conjunctural and leading indicators for 4Q23: Labor income and corporate profits continue to exhibit solid • The unemployment rate fell to a 14-
Slide 36: On a resilient growth path with broad-based support
On a resilient growth path with broad-based support from all major activity components Greece’s economic recovery outpaces the euro area Shifting towards a more export-oriented model 110 110 €b %GDP index, 4Q19=100, 120 The market share of total exports in the EU27 50 constant prices has increased b
Slide 37: Heading to investment-led growth in 2024-26
Heading to investment-led growth in 2024-26 buoyed by strong banking system liquidity & rising collateral values House prices up by 58% in 3Q23 vs their 3Q17 low, but Over €45b of residential investment will be required still competitively priced compared with the EA average through 2030 to rebalanc
Slide 38: Fiscal rebalancing underpinned the return to investment grade
The remarkable fiscal rebalancing underpinned the return to investment grade. The ongoing risk re-rating and RRF-induced investments will lead to a sustainable growth paradigm Sustained fiscal overperformance bolstered by efficiency Rapid decline in public debt as % of GDP in 2020-23 on the gains an
Slide 39: The Greek economy is expected to remain on a resilient growth trajectory
The Greek economy is expected to remain on a resilient growth trajectory Table: Key macros for the Greek economy (annual data) GDP growth projections Key macroeconomic indicators of the Greek Economy 10 yoy 10 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024f 5 5 2,4 2,5 Nominal GDP (yoy) -10,0 10,0 13,8 6,6 4,9 0 0 0,6 0
Slide 40: Appendix
7 | Appendix 39
Slide 41: Group P&L and balance sheet
Group P&L and balance sheet Balance Sheet | Group P&L | Group €m 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 €m 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 Cash & Reserves 8.400 7.551 9.950 14.226 17.572 NII 588 554 497 421 348 Interbank placements 2.330 2.735 2.731 2.900 3.143 Net fee & commission income 95 92 87 89 88 Securities 15.71
Slide 42: Group P&L and key ratios
Group P&L and key ratios P&L | Group Key Ratios | Group €m 9M23 9M22 YoY 3Q23 QoQ Key Balance sheet ratios 9M23 6M23 3M23 FY22 9M22 NII 1.640 948 +73% 588 +6% Liquidity +15% yoy Net fee & commission income 273 259 +6% 95 +4% excl. merchant Loans-to-Deposits 57% 57% 58% 59% 56% Core Income 1.913 1.20
Slide 43: Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International
Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International Greece International €m 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 €m 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 NII 563 529 474 401 328 NII 25 25 23 21 20 Net fee & commission income 92 87 83 85 85 Net fee & commission income 4 5 3 4 3 Core Income 654 616 557 485 413 Core Income 29 30
Slide 44: ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs)
ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), definition of financial data and ratios used This presentation contains financial data which is compiled as a normal part of our financial reporting and management information systems. For instance, financial items are categorized as foreign or domestic
Slide 45: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Na me Ab b re via tio n De fin itio n Assets held for sale -- Non- c urrent assets held for sale Cash and Reserves -- Cash and balanc es with c entral banks Combined Buffer Requirement CBR Total CET1 c apital required to
Slide 46: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Minorities -- Non-controlling interest MREL -- The minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities under the BRRD. Net Interbank -- Due from banks less due to banks, excluding the TLTRO facility Net Interest Ma
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