Slide 1: Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q2 2023
Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q2 2023 Dr Roelof Botha
Slide 2: Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q2 2023
Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q2 2023 (Note: 4 quarter average) Index; Q1 2014 = 100 111.5 111.0 110.5 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.5 108.0
Slide 3: Credit impairments by banks
Credit impairments by banks (Source: SARB) R billion 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 Q1'20 2 3 4 Q1'21 2 3 4 Q1'22 2 3 4 Q1'23 2
Slide 4: Household debt costs as % of income
Household debt costs as % of income (Source: SARB) % 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5
Slide 5: Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices
Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB – deflated by the CPI) R trillion 2.21 Relatively low interest rates 2.18 2.15 State capture & 2.12 high prime rate 2.09 2.06 Covid High interest Global financial crisis 2.03 rates 2.00 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Ju
Slide 6: Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices
Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices (Note: 4 quarter average; Source: Stats SA) R billion 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760
Slide 7: Total bond applications submitted to BetterBond from first-time buyers & repeat buyers
Total bond applications submitted to BetterBond from first-time buyers & repeat buyers (Sources: BetterBond; own calculations) Index; Q1 2021 = 100 180 FTBs Repeat buyers 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1'20 2 3 4 Q1'21 2 3 4 Q1'22 2 3 4 Q1'23 2 3
Slide 8: Year-on-year GDP growth at current prices and the real prime rate
Year-on-year GDP growth at current prices and the real prime rate (Note: GDP = 4Q average; Sources: Stats SA; own calculations) % 14 GDP Real prime 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Q1'15 Q1'16 Q1'17 Q1'18 Q1'19 Q1'20 Q1'21 Q1'22 Q1'23 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Slide 9: Employment trends in the public and private sectors
Employment trends in the public and private sectors (Source: Stats SA; SARB) Index; 2015 = 100 111 Private Public 108 105 102 99 96 93 90
Slide 10: Surrenders of long-term insurance policies at constant 2023 prices
Surrenders of long-term insurance policies at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R billion 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
Slide 11: Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices
Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R trillion 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
Slide 12: Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices
Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R billion 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1,000 Q1'18 Q1'19 Q1'20 Q1'21 Q1'22 Q1'23 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2
Slide 13: Thank you
ALTRON FINTECH