Amplitude Energy Limited · ASX:AEL
Amplitude Energy — Cooper Energy — Australian Domestic Gas Outlook 2018
17 slides from Amplitude Energy's conference presentation, Feb 28, 2018
Slide 1: Sole gas project: delivering transformational change
Sole gas project: delivering transformational change David Maxwell For personal use only Managing Director, Cooper Energy Presentation to Australian Domestic Gas Outlook 2018 28 February 2018
Slide 2: Important Notice – Disclaimer
Important Notice – Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) is issued by Cooper Energy Limited ABN 93 096 170 295 (“Cooper Energy” or “COE”). Summary information: This Presentation contains summary information about Cooper Energy and its activities as at the date of this Presentation and should
Slide 3: Sole: a new gas supply for south-east Australia from 2019
Sole: a new gas supply for south-east Australia from 2019 Sole gas project - $605 million development, offshore Victoria For personal use only Onshore: APA Group Offshore: Cooper Energy • $250 million upgrade and re-opening of Orbost • $355 million subsea development and shore crossing Gas Processin
Slide 4: Sole gas project
Sole gas project Project 30% complete at end-January 2018 For personal use only Orbost Gas Processing Plant • Production wells drilled: April – May ‘18 Works by APA Group Plant upgrade & operations • Gas to plant target: March ‘19 • Start supply target: mid CY ‘19 Rig preparing to depart Fremantle f
Slide 5: Impact of Sole on Cooper Energy
Impact of Sole on Cooper Energy Transformational impact on reserves and expected production and cash flows For personal use only Proved & probable reserves Forecast production Estimated* operating cash flow MMboe MMboe $ million 150 55 6 5 120 44 4 90 33 3 60 22 2 11 30 1 0 0 0 FY16 FY17 Sole FID FY
Slide 6: Sole to supply PJ per annum to utility and industrial gas customers
Sole to supply 24 PJ per annum to utility and industrial gas customers Customers committed long term off-take at competitive prices, 63 PJ available for further contracts For personal use only Sole gas production PJ pa O-I Bottle manufacturing 10.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 8.5 10.9 20.0 20.0 20.0
Slide 7: Our development of Sole began with market analysis in 2012
Our development of Sole began with market analysis in 2012 Recognition of the impact of LNG manufacture prompted supply and demand analysis For personal use only South-east Australia: supply v demand • Many identified tight supply 5 years ago • Very few took any action - “she’ll be right” • Policy a
Slide 8: Identifying where to play the “gas to south-east Australia” opportunity
Identifying where to play the “gas to south-east Australia” opportunity Potential supply sources were screened for shareholder value and risk criteria For personal use only South-east Australia: supply v demand • Many identified tight supply 5 years ago • Very few took any action - “she’ll be right”
Slide 9: Identifying where to play the “gas to south-east Australia” opportunity
Identifying where to play the “gas to south-east Australia” opportunity Clear winners in supply to south east Australia identified by cost curve analysis For personal use only South-east Australia: supply v demand • Many identified tight supply 5 years ago • Very few took any action - “she’ll be rig
Slide 10: ACCC view of supply and pricing for south-east Australian gas
ACCC view of supply and pricing for south-east Australian gas Forecast gas demand exceeds …necessitating supply the delivered cost of which is the price For personal use only forecast local production from northern fields… benchmark, which is affected by oil & LNG prices Southern states* gas demand
Slide 11: South-east Australia is the best supply source for south-east Australia
South-east Australia is the best supply source for south-east Australia Opportunities in the Otway and Gippsland Basins For personal use only 350 173 Otway 2,483 Gippsland 4,383 85 215 Bass XXX Natural gas and ethane reserves (2P PJ) YYY Natural gas and ethane Contingent Resources (2C PJ) 11 Source:
Slide 12: Longer term outlook
Longer term outlook Forecasts indicate more supply required in the medium term For personal use only Forecast gas supply (including Arrow Energy and Northern Territory) compared to forecast gas demand, East Coast Gas Market, 2020- 2030 • Forecasts suggest supply in 10 years (2028) requires more than
Slide 13: Portfolio style gas business building around Gippsland and Otway hubs
Portfolio style gas business building around Gippsland and Otway hubs Plans escalating in 2018-19 with gas contracting and capex around 2 hubs best placed for supply to south-east Australia For personal use only Otway: offshore & onshore Gippsland 2018: 2018: • Casino-5 workover • Sole Gas Project •
Slide 14: Appendices
For personal use only Appendices
Slide 15: Gas market outlook for eastern Australia
Gas market outlook for eastern Australia Forecast ongoing tight supply supportive of contracting at current prices or better For personal use only Forecast eastern Australia gas demand supply ACCC analysis of gas prices offered & accepted balance 2018 – 2019 PJ Unfilled offers between 1 January 2017
Slide 16: South-east Australia gas supply costs in 2020
South-east Australia1 gas supply costs in 2020* Victoria producers the lowest cost supply option for Victoria For personal use only Delivered Melbourne city gate cost for gas from eastern Australia available for delivery to domestic market in 2020* AUD / GJ Typical peak daily quantity for VIC/NSW/SA
Slide 17: Notes on calculation of Reserves and Resources
Notes on calculation of Reserves and Resources Notes on Calculation of Reserves and Contingent Resources Cooper Energy has completed its own estimation of reserves and resources in accordance with the definitions and guidelines in the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2007 Petroleum Resources Man