Shell Plc · LSE:SHEL
Shell — Investor Day (March 2025)
55 slides from Shell's investor day presentation, March 2025
Slide 1: Delivering more value, with less emissions
Capital Markets Day 2025 Delivering more value, with less emissions Performance, Discipline, Simplification Capital Markets Day | March 2025 1 Capital Markets Day | March 2025
Slide 2: Overview: Agenda and Today's Speakers
Capital Markets Day 2025 Overview Agenda Today’s Speakers 9:00 – 9:10 Welcome AM Mohammed Hamid – EVP Investor Relations & Wael Sawan Strategic Planning Chief Executive Officer 9:10 – 10:30 Shell investment case and Q&A AM Wael Sawan – Chief Executive Officer Sinead Gorman – Chief Financial Officer
Slide 3: Cautionary note
Capital Markets Day 2025 Cautionary note The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience to reference Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise,
Slide 4: Delivering more value, with less emissions
Capital Markets Day 2025 Delivering more value, with less emissions Wael Sawan – Chief Executive Officer Sinead Gorman – Chief Financial Officer Capital Markets Day | March 2025 4 Capital Markets Day | March 2025
Slide 5: Sprint 1: Our journey to date
Shell Sprint 1: Our journey to date CMD 2023 Outperforming peers since 2023 From To Share price4 performance since January 2023 Sprint 1 30% 70+ Targets 4 + 51 20% Course Correction $23–27 bln Cash $22–25 bln 10% Capex 0% Structural Cost Our aims: – $2–3 bln Reductions2 -10% Redefine performance -
Slide 6: Sprint 1: Delivering on our commitments
Shell Sprint 1: Delivering on our commitments Profitably transitioning towards Net Zero by 2050 CO2 CH4 Shareholder distributions of 30–40% >6% p.a. absolute free cash flow growth Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under Eliminate routine flaring by 20253 and achieve of CFFO through the cycle through 203
Slide 7: Our journey to 2030
Shell Our journey to 2030 The investment case through the energy transition Today 2028 Milestones 2030 Track record of delivery Delivering even more Realising . . Potential . . Delivery across key financial targets Across our businesses Rewarding our shareholders For our shareholders Since end 2022
Slide 8: Demand growth across all scenarios irrespective of pace of transition
Shell Demand growth across all scenarios irrespective of pace of transition Primary energy demand across Shell Our core energy transition beliefs Our portfolio is aligned with a balanced scenarios multi-energy transition Exajoules 752 Shell Scenario1 Horizon Archipelagos Surge % Split of energy sale
Slide 9: Our Vision for Shell beyond 2030: Growing where we have advantages
Shell Our Vision for Shell beyond 2030: Growing where we have advantages Today 2030 2035 2040+ Our starting point Extending our advantaged portfolio Free Cash Flow Growth Track Record Sprint 1 Leading Integrated Gas & LNG Business No. #1 Listed LNG supplier Most Customer-focused Energy Marketer & Tr
Slide 10: Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio
Shell Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio Performance, Discipline & Simplification Strongly positioned through our advantaged portfolio Growth, Longevity, Resilience High-grade Returns, Harness Options ~$175 Higher return businesses drive free cash flow Focusing portfo
Slide 11: Our advantaged portfolio, well positioned for all scenarios
Shell Our advantaged portfolio, well positioned for all scenarios 1. Upside exposure: Growth and longevity 2. Downside protection: Resilience from Downstream Growing oil & gas production to 2030 Growing Integrated Gas and Marketing Resilient Downstream adjusted earnings complimenting Integrated Gas
Slide 12: Portfolio uplift from integrated Trading & Supply
Shell Portfolio uplift from integrated Trading & Supply ~2% ROACE uplift annually and no earnings losses in any quarter over the last decade1 2–4% ROACE uplift expected medium term ∼50 mtpa – Largest LNG capacity 100s of supply points – One of among IOCs from 14 facilities2 world’s largest energy tr
Slide 13: A differentiated investment case prioritising share buybacks
Shell A differentiated investment case prioritising share buybacks Giving shareholders more ownership While trading at an attractive yield And adding dividends delivering a in our future through buybacks competitive total shareholder return Shareholder distributions as % of CFFO1 FCF as % of Enterpr
Slide 14: Value accretive and focused capital investment
Shell Value accretive and focused capital investment Disciplined and predictable investments Prioritising highest return opportunities High-grading Capital Employed Cash capex ($ billion) Cash capex allocation (%) Organic IRR % of Capital Employed1 hurdle rates 100% 100% $20–22 billion p.a. ~10% ~9%
Slide 15: Pursuing an optimal cost base by driving simplification
Shell Pursuing an optimal cost base by driving simplification Continuing our cost reduction drive across the group Shifting to non-portfolio structural savings Cumulative structural cost reduction ($ billion) Cumulative structural cost reduction ($ billion) 2023 2023–2024 2023–2028 2023 2023–2024 20
Slide 16: Repositioning the portfolio
Shell Repositioning the portfolio 2023 2024–2025 Divestment Divestment Investment Pause Integrated JV Significant Strategic Singapore Refining & SPDC (NG) HEFA Pernis (NL) with Equinor (UK) Chemicals1 Decisions Reset Chemicals trajectory Execution of strategic intent Cultural change Challenge existi
Slide 17: Balance sheet strengthened and well positioned for all environments
Shell Balance sheet strengthened and well positioned for all environments Maintain a Strong Investment Grade Rating through the cycle Net debt Net debt excluding Leases 2024 Net debt 100 100 60 30% 30% 50 80 80 40 60 60 20% 20% $ billion $ billion $ billion 30 40 40 20 10% 10% 20 20 10 0 0% 0 0% 0 2
Slide 18: Portfolio strength delivers attractive free cash flow per share growth
Shell Portfolio strength delivers attractive free cash flow per share growth Growing free cash flow Resilient and predictable shareholder Growing free cash flow per share returns nFCF1 ($ billion) $ billion nFCF1 per share ($) $50/bbl Brent scenario 10 50 30 25 20 5 10 0 Sources Uses CFFO Net Debt c
Slide 19: Value led approach to capital allocation
Shell Value led approach to capital allocation Balanced Capital Allocation Total Distributions Cash Capex Enhanced shareholder distributions Disciplined investment 40–50% of CFFO through the cycle $20–22 billion p.a. 2025–2028 Prioritising Buybacks Dividend Consistency IGU Capex DSR Capex 13 consecu
Slide 20: Delivering more value, with less emissions
Shell Delivering more value, with less emissions Profitably transitioning towards Net Zero by 2050 CO2 CH4 >10% nFCF per share growth p.a. Distributing 40–50% of CFFO to Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions Achieve near-zero methane through 20301 shareholders through the cycle under operational control by
Slide 21: Our investment case through the energy transition
Shell Our investment case through the energy transition Growth and resilience through the energy transition Committed to oil & gas growth with 4–5% CAGR in LNG sales to 2030, and sustained material liquids production of 1.4 million barrels per day by 2030 Investing ~$12–14 billion1 in Leading In
Slide 22: Integrated Gas & Upstream
Capital Markets Day 2025 Integrated Gas & Upstream Capital Markets Day | March 2025 22 Capital Markets Day | March 2025
Slide 23: Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio
Shell Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio Performance, Discipline & Simplification Strongly positioned through our advantaged portfolio Growth, Longevity, Resilience High-grade Returns, Harness Options ~$130 Higher return businesses drive free cash flow Focusing portfo
Slide 24: We are building on our strengths
Integrated Gas and Upstream We are building on our strengths Growing production with focus on Generating more value with less Portfolio focus delivering attractive the gas value chain emissions returns and free cash flow Integrated Gas & Upstream production Integrated Gas & Upstream CFFO excl. WC pe
Slide 25: Advantaged resources sustain volumes
Integrated Gas and Upstream Advantaged resources sustain volumes Strong resource base weighted towards New projects to deliver >1 million boe/d Sustaining production into the 2030s high-margin LNG and Deepwater between 2025–2030 Commercial resources (2P+2C) in billion boe1 Peak production from new p
Slide 26: Integrated Gas – Growth and scale sustain cash flows over the long term
Integrated Gas and Upstream Integrated Gas – Growth and scale sustain cash flows over the long term Growing sales into the next decade Investing further to sustain leading Supporting significant free cash flow LNG position into the 2030s LNG sales (liquefaction + purchased volumes)1 (mtpa) $ billion
Slide 27: Integrated Gas – Resilience through the cycle from cost and exposure advantages
Integrated Gas and Upstream Integrated Gas – Resilience through the cycle from cost and exposure advantages Positive long-term LNG fundamentals Strengthening portfolio with cost Resilient to gas price cycles due to oil despite increased medium-term supply1 competitive supply additions2 price exposur
Slide 28: LNG – Global trading & optimisation enables unrivalled value capture
Integrated Gas and Upstream LNG – Global trading & optimisation enables unrivalled value capture Advantaged portfolio benefitting from scale, footprint and optionality Sales volumes (mtpa)1 0 30 60 Novatek Shell LNGC Ph 1 & Ph 2 UK NW Europe QG4 South Peer 1 Iberia NFE US Export NFS Ruwais Korea LNG
Slide 29: Upstream – Maximising high-margin production and longevity across core basins
Integrated Gas and Upstream Upstream – Maximising high-margin production and longevity across core basins Deepwater Oil & Gas Conventional Oil & Gas High-graded Upstream margins Higher-margin, lower-cost production with resource depth Stable, cost-competitive with double digit returns and Higher uni
Slide 30: US Deepwater – Scale, margin, and expertise underpin leading position
Integrated Gas and Upstream US Deepwater – Scale, margin, and expertise underpin leading position Largest position in high-margin basin Exceeding expectations on volumes Track record of margin improvement Innovative designs across our deepwater platforms deliver >25% incremental volumes via tiebacks
Slide 31: Brazil Deepwater – Unlocking value from expertise, technology and partnerships
Integrated Gas and Upstream Brazil Deepwater – Unlocking value from expertise, technology and partnerships Top foreign producer in Brazil Stable production Delivering above expectations Resilient unit margins in a top-quartile basin Sustaining production with new high-margin barrels Increasing resou
Slide 32: Conventional Oil & Gas – Stable production, consistent margins, cash flow longevity
Integrated Gas and Upstream Conventional Oil & Gas – Stable production, consistent margins, cash flow longevity Consistent margins Stable liquids production Resilient cash flows High-graded to sustain stable unit margins Operational excellence extending liquids production Lower commodity price lever
Slide 33: Our investment case through the energy transition
Shell Our investment case through the energy transition Longevity of cash flows underpinned by strong resource base Peer-leading unit cash flow generation with total production growing by 1% per year to 2030 Focused growth in LNG with sales growing at 4–5% CAGR to 2030 Stable and resilient liq
Slide 34: Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Capital Markets Day 2025 Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions 34
Slide 35: Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio
Shell Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio Performance, Discipline & Simplification Strongly positioned through our advantaged portfolio Growth, Longevity, Resilience High-grade Returns, Harness Options ~$45 Higher return businesses drive free cash flow Focusing portfol
Slide 36: Integrated portfolio with upside potential
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Integrated portfolio with upside potential 2024 Capital Employed Integrated Gas & Upstream Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions ($ billion) Products ~20 Chemicals ~25 Products & Chemicals Marketing Convenience & EV1 ~18 Fuels1 H2 Lubricants1 ~7 Po
Slide 37: Delivering significant progress during our first sprint
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Delivering significant progress during our first sprint Performance Discipline Simplification Cash flow growth from prior investments ($ billion) Focusing Downstream and R&ES cash capex ($ billion) High-grading 15 20 SouthCoast Wind divestment 10 10 HEFA
Slide 38: We've only just begun
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions We’ve only just begun Continued capital and cost discipline Driving margin and cash flow growth Resulting in a higher-return portfolio Focused allocation of cash capex ($ billion) Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Downstream and Renewables & En
Slide 39: Mobility & Lubricants – Attractive fundamentals benefitting portfolio
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Mobility & Lubricants – Attractive fundamentals benefitting portfolio Evolving market fundamentals Re-positioning our portfolio Building on recent margin expansion Mobility & Lubricants value pools1 ($ billion) Gross margin per bbl sold ($) Sales volume (
Slide 40: Mobility & Lubricants – Expanding margins as customer needs evolve
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Mobility & Lubricants – Expanding margins as customer needs evolve Positioned to capture even more Leading to medium term margin Supporting rising free cash flow into value by 2030 expansion the 2030s Gross margin ($ billion) $ billion CAGR in food & beve
Slide 41: Products – Focused portfolio enabled by Trading
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Products – Focused portfolio enabled by Trading Portfolio actions creating top-quartile portfolio Products & Trading differentiation versus US refiners Refining net cash margin1 ($/bbl) Adjusted EBITDA per boe2 ($) Portfolio footprint Complex, flexible as
Slide 42: Chemicals – Repositioning portfolio to unlock value
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Chemicals – Repositioning portfolio to unlock value Realising additional value via portfolio actions Improving underlying cashflow across portfolio CFFO ($ billion) Europe US High-grading and selective China 3 closures due to challenged Enacting strategic
Slide 43: Harnessing options across Power and Low Carbon
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Harnessing options across Power and Low Carbon Reallocating capital to improve returns Holding Power and Low Carbon Options Capital Employed at <10% of group $ billion <10% of Group Capital Employed $ billion $ billion ~$4 bln 200 20% 40 ~$45 bln ~ -2% ~$
Slide 44: Reallocating capital across Power value chains
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Reallocating capital across Power value chains Redeploying capital in Power portfolio to improve returns Leveraging trading and technology to capture value Capital Employed ($ billion) ROACE (%) Americas Europe Asia Pacific ~10% < $15 billion 15 Capital a
Slide 45: Demand driven investment into Low Carbon Options, underpinned by Trading
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Demand driven investment into Low Carbon Options, underpinned by Trading Focused Capital Employed to develop Low Carbon Fuels: Leveraging Trading & Supply and our assets to capture value Low Carbon Options and help our customers decarbonise Capital Employ
Slide 46: Pioneering innovation, an example of creating value with Shell technology
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions Pioneering innovation, an example of creating value with Shell technology Proven Technology Leadership Expanding Value Today Driving Future Innovation 45+ years of proprietary gas-to-liquids (GTL) GTL based lubricants enable reliable and efficient E
Slide 47: Our investment case through the energy transition
Shell Our investment case through the energy transition Longevity of cash flows underpinned by focused portfolio Price resilient businesses with CFFO growth from focused strategies driving ROACE from 6% in 2024 to around 10% in 2030 Growing premium fuels and lubricants supports Mobility & Lubric
Slide 48: Appendix
Capital Markets Day 2025 Appendix Capital Markets Day | March 2025 48 Capital Markets Day | March 2025
Slide 49: Targets
Shell Capital Markets Day 2025 Targets The targets on this slide represent all business Grow nFCF/share >10% p.a. through 20301 targets that Shell will report on going forward. All other business targets have been retired as part of Shareholder distributions of 40–50% of CFFO through the cycle our n
Slide 50: Disciplined, value-focused capital allocation
Appendix Disciplined, value-focused capital allocation Cash Capex Organic IRR hurdle rates $ billion 2023 2024 2025–2028 IG 4 5 6 UP 8 8 7 IGU ~13 ~13 ~12–14 11-15% MKT 61 2 2–3 12-15%2 (incl. LCF) C&P 3 3 3 R&ES 3 3 2–3 10% DSR ~12 ~8 ~8 Total 24 21 20–22 Details on our pipeline of major projects i
Slide 51: Definitions
Appendix Definitions Metric Definition 2P+2C Proved and probable (2P) reserves + best estimate of contingent resources (2C), under the Society of Petroleum Engineers Resource Classification System, reported on a Shell Share basis. Adjusted Earnings Income attributable to Shell plc shareholders for t
Slide 52: Definitions
Appendix Definitions Metric Definition Targeted unlevered rate of return for growth projects excluding inorganic, where NPV equals zero, calculated at FID on forward-looking basis. For Upstream and Integrated Gas the price assumption IRR hurdle rates is $70 per barrel Brent real terms 2024. In wind
Slide 53: Definitions
Appendix Definitions Metric Definition Year Price assumptions Project Break- Project break-even refers to the oil price at which the Net Present Value (NPV) on a FID forward basis is zero. Even $70/bbl Brent, $4/MMBtu Henry Hub (and 2024 – price Renewable Renewable generation refers to the productio
Slide 54: Abbreviations
Appendix Abbreviations Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation AECO Canadian natural gas benchmark price EBITDA mmBtu One million British thermal units and amortisation B2C Business to consumer EV Electric vehicle mt Million tonnes Boe Barrels of oil equivalent FCF Free cash flow mtpa Million to
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