Stifel Financial Corporation · NYSE:SF
Stifel Financial — February Consumer Update Call (March 2015)
21 slides from Stifel Financial's conference presentation, Mar 2, 2015
Slide 1: February Consumer Update Call - Snow Start to Spring
March 2, 2015 Consumer & Retail Restaurants Conference Call/Schedule February Consumer Update Call - Slides Attached "Snow Start to Spring" Date and Time: Tuesday, March 2, 2015 at 2:30 pm ET Hosted by: Richard Jaffe - Softlines Retail Analyst David Schick - Hardlines Retail Analyst Jim Duffy - Spor
Slide 2: February Consumer Update Call: Hosts and Dial-In
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 February Consumer Update Call “Snow Start To Spring” Stifel Retail Research Team’s Consumer Update Call March 2, 2015 – 2:30 PM ET Hosted By: Richard Jaffe David Schick Jim Duffy Softlines Retail Analyst Hardlines Retail Analyst Sports and Lifestyle Analys
Slide 3: Softlines Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Softlines Retail Outlook Slow Start to Spring For February and the beginning of 2015, we anticipate a lull in retail apparel sales as extreme cold weather and snowstorms likely resulted in weak traffic despite the relatively easy comparisons. Given the sev
Slide 4: Softlines Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Softlines Retail Outlook West Coast Port Dispute is Over – On Friday 2/20, the Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union reached a tentative deal, ending the ongoing port dispute that had wreaked havoc on West Coast ports
Slide 5: Hardlines Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Hardlines Retail Outlook READ Discretionary Spending Intentions Still Down But Less Bad: Net discretionary spending intentions (our best approximation of overall discretionary retail comp) fell -5% y/y in February, after falling -13% y/y in January, rising
Slide 6: Discount Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Discount Retail Outlook Our Macro Indicator of Dollar Store Sales (MIDSS) is revised up to 12% Stifel Macro Indicator of Dollar Store Sales (MIDSS) its final 4Q14 reading of +4.0% (versus +3.9% prior), after +2.7% in Dollar Store Comps 3Q14. 10% MIDSS • Ac
Slide 7: Discount Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Discount Retail Outlook DLTR Downgraded to Hold: We downgraded DLTR to Hold after hitting Dollar General Spring Outdoor Seasonal $80 target price with strong 4Q14 results on 2/25/15 (in line with our expectations). We see a deteriorating risk/reward dynami
Slide 8: Sports & Lifestyle Brands Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Sports & Lifestyle Brands Outlook February a Mixed-Bag; March Needs to See Warm Weather; FX Built-In to Estimates For Now Slow Start to Spring for Some, Clearance Opp. for Others; Eyes Moving to March/April. Though we won’t see an early start to Spring cat
Slide 9: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Restaurants Outlook Restaurants Industry February 2015 Observations Sales H eadline: February Industrywide Comp of +4.5%E vs. January +4.7%A; 1Q15Trending Above Consensus’ Est.; Sequential Imp. Over 2H 14 Feb15 industrywide comps are +4.5%E (vs. Jan15’s +4
Slide 10: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Restaurants Outlook 4Q14A Comp 4Q14 SSS Likely to Beat Consensus Company Date Rating Actual Consensus Surprise SBUX 1/22 Hold +5.0% +4.7% +0.3% Consensus Actual Estimate* Difference MCD (U.S.)* 1/23 Hold (1.7%) (2.1%) +0.4% 3Q13 0.0% +0.5% -50bps EAT 1/28
Slide 11: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Restaurants Outlook Source: Stifel estimates; Thomson One; FactSet, BLS Page 11 10
Slide 12: Monthly U.S. Auto Sales
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Monthly U.S. Auto Sales Total Monthly New Vehicle Sales (SAAR in mm) Total Annual Light New Vehicle Unit Sales (Units in mm) 18.0 14.0% 20 20% 17.5 17.2 17.8 17.5 18 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.3 15% 12% 16.8 16.9 17.0 13% 16.9 16.9 12.0% 16.7 16.6 11% 16.5 17.0 16.
Slide 13: Softlines Retail Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Softlines Retail Comp Sheet 12 Mo. Price Mkt Cap 52 Week Stock Perf EPS Absolute P/E Hist Rel Forward 1Q EPS EV / EBITDA (1) Company Rating Target 2/27/15 (mm) High Low YTD LTM 2014E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E P/E Range 14A 15E % Chg 2014E 2015E 2016E U.S. Ap
Slide 14: Softlines Retail Same Store Sales Estimates
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Softlines Retail Same Store Sales Estimates February Same Store Sales Preview Consensus Same Store Sales EPS Est. Stifel EPS Estimates Price Ticker Stifel Est. Consensus LY 1Q15 1Q15 FY15 FY16 Rating Target 2/27/2015 GPS 0% - 2% 1.9 % (7)% $0.56 $0.54 $2.8
Slide 15: Hardlines Retail Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Hardlines Retail Comp Sheet 12-Mth Price Mkt Cap Div Store LTM EPS P/E EV / EBITDA Average 2014E-2015E Company Rating Target 2/27/15 (billions) Yield Count Return 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E FCF Yld LTD/Cap ROIC Footage Home Impro
Slide 16: Discount Retail Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Discount Retail Comp Sheet 12-Mth Price Mkt Cap Current LTM EPS P/E EV / EBITDA EV/EBITDAR EV / Sales Company Rating Target 2/27/15 (billions) Stores Return 2014E 2015E 2016E* 2014E 2015E 2016E* 2014E 2015E 2016E* 2014E 2015E 2016E* 2014E 2015E 2016E* Doll
Slide 17: Sports & Lifestyle Brands Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Sports & Lifestyle Brands Comp Sheet Sports and Lifestyle Coverage Price S.I. as TEV/EBITDA P/E PEG 12-Month Ticker 2/27 % of float Mkt. Cap Cash TEV D/E 5YR Median CY14E CY15E CY16E 5YR Median CY14E CY15E CY16E 5YR Median CY14E CY15E CY16E Rating Target B
Slide 18: Restaurants Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Restaurants Comp Sheet Performance C2015E C2016E 2015E 2016E 2/27/15 Market 4 12 Div. Short C2015E C2016E C2015E C2016E C2015E C2015E C2016E C2016E EV/ EV/ EPS EPS Ticker Company Name Rating Cap EV Week YTD Month Yield Int. EPS EPS EBITDA EBITDA P/E Adj. P
Slide 19: Auto Dealers: Comp Sheet & Proprietary S.A.A.R. Regression
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Auto Dealers: Comp Sheet & Proprietary S.A.A.R. Regression 12-Mth Price Mkt Cap Ent. Value Dividend EPS P/E EV / EBITDA FY13 Company Rating Target 2/27/15 (mm) (mm) Yield 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E Debt/Cap Adj. ROIC Auto D
Slide 20: Important Disclosures and Certifications
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Important Disclosures and Certifications I, Paul Westra, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Paul Westra, certify that no part of my compensation was,
Slide 21: Country Specific and Jurisdictional Disclosures
Consumer & Retail Restaurants March 2, 2015 Country Specific and Jurisdictional Disclosures United States: Research produced and distributed by SNEL is distributed by SNEL to “Major US Institutional Investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. SNEL is
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