Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Q1 2017 Earnings Presentation
15 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, May 2, 2017
Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2017
The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2017 Joc O’Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer Presenters: Rich Mack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations Date: May 2, 2017
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our proposed acquisition of the global phosphate and p
Slide 3: Executive Summary
Executive Summary Several Items Impacted First Managing Quarter 2017 Costs and Capital Results Expect Better Markets Have Profitability in Q2 Improved and H2 2017 MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 3
Slide 4: China Phosphate Exports
China Phosphate Exports Million Tonnes China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Source: China Customs, Mosaic 4.0 2015 = 11.6mmt 2016 = 9.5mmt 3.5 2017F = ~8.0mmt 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 4
Slide 5: Financial Results Review
Financial Results Review MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 5
Slide 6: Phosphates Results and Guidance
Phosphates Results and Guidance First Quarter 2017 Results Guidance Phosphates Q2 2017 2.0M 2.3M 2.3M Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes Q2 DAP Selling Price $320 to $340 per tonne $315 $327 $335 Price Q2 Gross Margin Rate Approximately 10% Q2 Operating Rate Mid 80% 7% Margin Full Ye
Slide 7: Potash Results and Guidance
Potash Results and Guidance First Quarter 2017 Results Guidance 2.0M 2.15M 2.3M Potash Q2 2017 Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 2.0 to 2.3 million tonnes Q2 MOP Selling Price $170 to $185 per tonne $160 $172 $180 Q2 Gross Margin Rate Low 20 percent Price Q2 Operating Rate Low 90 percent* 17% ~20% Full Year
Slide 8: International Distribution Results and Guidance
International Distribution Results and Guidance First Quarter 2017 Results Guidance International Distribution Q2 2017 1.2M 1.3M 1.5M Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 1.4 to 1.7 million tonnes Q2 Gross Margin per Tonne Approximately $20 ~$20 $21 Margin/Tonne Full Year Sales Volumes 7.0 to 7.5 million tonnes
Slide 9: Other Full-Year Guidance
Other Full-Year Guidance Consolidated Full-Year 2017 Total SG&A $295 to $310 million Capital Expenditures and Equity Investments $950 million to $1.05 billion Effective Tax Rate Upper single digits Potash 2017 Full Year Canadian Resources Taxes $85 to $135 million Full Year Brine Management Costs $1
Slide 10: Closing Remarks and Appendix
Closing Remarks and Appendix MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL 10
Slide 11: Raw Material Cost Detail
Raw Material Cost Detail First Quarter Percent 2017 Ammonia Realized in COGS $285 ($/Tonne) Average Purchase Price $307 Sulfur Realized in COGS $87 ($/Tonne) Average Purchase Price $75 U.S. mined rock 3,575 90% Phosphate Purchased Miski Mayo Rock 408 10% Rock Other Purchased Rock 1 0% (realized in C
Slide 12: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers(a) 2017 Q1 % Impact on 2017 Q1 Pre-Tax Quarterly Change Margin % Segment Actual Impact EPS Impact Actual Margin Marketing MOP Price ($/tonne)(b) $172 $50 22% 24% $99 $0.25 Potash Volume (thousand tonnes) 1,973 500 22% 12% $49 $0.13 DAP Price ($/tonne) $327 $50 7%
Slide 13: Phosphate Raw Material Trends
Phosphate Raw Material Trends Ammonia Sulfur ($/tonne) ($/tonne) 500 175 450 150 400 350 125 300 100 250 200 75 150 50 100 25 50 0 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sulfur Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017F (long 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017F ton)(p)
Slide 14: Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017)
Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017) Muriate of Potash Low High Million Tonnes (KCl) 2015 2016 2017F 2017F Comments Implied shipments plunged last year as a result of a 2.6 mmt decline in imports and lower domestic production. The drop in shipments coupled with a modest increase
Slide 15: Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017)
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017) Million Tonnes Low High DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP 2015 2016E 2017F 2017F Comments We have trimmed our forecast for 2017 – rather than flat, now showing a modest decline – as early reports on spring season volumes have come in below our previous expe