Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · NYSE:OSG

Octave Specialty — Ambac Financial Group — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

43 slides from Octave Specialty's earnings presentation, Nov 11, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Quarterly Financial Summary and Operating Supplement

    Third Quarter 2025 Quarterly Financial Summary and Operating Supplement

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statement

    Forward Looking Statement In this presentation, we have included statements that may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “estimate,” “project,” “plan,” “believe,” “anticipate,”

  3. Slide 3: The New Ambac: Our Vision

    The New Ambac Our Vision To be the leading MGA specialty The new Ambac is a insurance platform, delivering pure-play specialty innovative solutions through insurance platform. expertise, technology and trusted partnerships. 3

  4. Slide 4: Operating Highlights

    Operating Highlights 1 2 3 Closed on the sale of the Legacy Closed the acquisition of Converted Ambac's investment Financial Guarantee business on ArmadaCare, a specialty A&H in Pivix Specialty Insurance September 29, 2025 for $420 MGA, for $250 million in cash and Services, Inc. ("Pivix") to a mill

  5. Slide 5: Third Quarter Financial Highlights (3Q25 vs. 3Q24)

    Third Quarter Financial Highlights (3Q25 vs. 3Q24) Premium Production Consolidated Financials Insurance Distribution Premium production was up 32% Net Income (Loss) to Insurance Distribution to $343 million Shareholders from Continuing Revenue was up 80% • Insurance distribution Operations of $(31.7

  6. Slide 6: Ambac's Operating Segment Highlights (Third Quarter)

    Ambac’s Operating Segment Highlights (Third Quarter) Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Corporate & Casualty Insurance Corporate & ($ in millions) Insurance Distribution Other Consolidated Insurance Distribution Other Consolidated

  7. Slide 7: Ambac's Operating Segment Highlights (YTD)

    Ambac’s Operating Segment Highlights (YTD) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Corporate & Casualty Insurance Corporate & ($ in millions) Insurance Distribution Other Consolidated Insurance Distribution Other Consolidated Gross premi

  8. Slide 8: Insurance Distribution Segment

    Insurance Distribution Segment

  9. Slide 9: Cirrata Third Quarter Highlights: Insurance Distribution

    Cirrata Third Quarter Highlights: Insurance Distribution • Premium placed increased 69% to $245 million Net Income (loss), EBITDA1,2 & Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) • Total revenue up 80% to $43 million over $20 prior year $10 • Organic growth of 40% $0 -$10 • Net loss of $(5) million generating a

  10. Slide 10: Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information

    Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 Gross premiums placed by line of business: ..................................................................................................................

  11. Slide 11: Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information (Continued)

    Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information (Continued) Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 Net income (loss) (Continuing Operations) .......................................................................................................

  12. Slide 12: Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information (Continued)

    Insurance Distribution Segment Quarterly Information (Continued) Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 Net income (loss) (Continuing Operations) .......................................................................................................

  13. Slide 13: Build and Buy Strategy in Action

    Build and Buy Strategy in Action Ambac's Insurance Distribution business has delivered consistent growth 2021-2022 2022-2024 2024-Present 2021 2022 2024 • Acquires an 85% stake in All Trans, a full-service commercial • Launch of distribution strategy • Acquires a 60% stake in Beat Capital Partners,

  14. Slide 14: Specialty Distribution with a Global Reach

    Specialty Distribution with a Global Reach A Diversified MGA platform helping cushion the impact of market cycles United States London / Bermuda Accident & Health Specialty Commercial Auto Professional Liability Property, Liability, Motor NA Property Accident & Health Marine Financial & Professional

  15. Slide 15: ArmadaCare, a Market-Leading A&H MGA, Strengthens Ambac's MGA/MGU Capabilities

    ArmadaCare, a Market-Leading A&H MGA, Strengthens and Concentration Mix by Industry Complements Ambac's Current MGA/MGU Capabilities Key Stats Company Overview $148M 8% Annual Premiums in Force (APIF) – as of ’22-’24 Premium CAGR 9/30/25 • Founded in 2004 46% 109% • Headquartered in Hunt Valley, MD

  16. Slide 16: ArmadaCare has Significant Synergy Potential

    ArmadaCare has Significant Synergy Potential Why We Like ArmadaCare Synergy Opportunities Complementary Product Offering 1 Differentiated Product & ArmadaCare brings a differentiated product Service Offering offering, further enhancing Ambac’s A&H portfolio Access to Distribution Relationships 2 + A

  17. Slide 17: ArmadaCare + Cirrata Historical ProForma

    ArmadaCare + Cirrata Historical ProForma(1) Armada Care + Cirrata Proforma Financial Statements as of September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024 Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2024 Insurance Other Insurance Other ($ in millions) Distribution ArmadaCare Adjustment

  18. Slide 18: Cirrata has +1.5 Billion of Third-Party Capacity for 2025

    Cirrata has +1.5 Billion of Third-Party Capacity1 for 2025 Duration of Capacity Providers Capacity Sources 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% —% 5+ Years 4 Years 3 Years 1-2 Years (re)insurers Top 25 Global Reinsurers Pension/Private Equity Individuals/Names/Private Capital Majority Third-Party Capacity, Long-Term

  19. Slide 19: Fragmented MGA Sector Presents Compelling Opportunity

    Fragmented MGA Sector Presents Compelling Opportunity Historical Trends1 U.S. MGA Market1 • The MGA market doubled in size between 2019-2024 supported by the strong growth of the Excess & Surplus $82B $114B+ 16% 43% (E&S) insurance market 2024 DPW Average Management Annual Growth Owned • Premium gro

  20. Slide 20: Specialty Property and Casualty Segment

    Specialty Property and Casualty Segment

  21. Slide 21: Everspan: Specialty P&C Program Insurer

    Everspan: Specialty P&C Program Insurer • GPW $97 million down (16)% vs. 3Q2024 GPW by Line of Business • GPW in 3Q2025 from affiliated MGAs 3Q2025 3Q2024 of $1 million Commercial auto liability 11% Commercial auto liability 19% Commercial auto physical damage 2% Commercial auto physical damage 18%

  22. Slide 22: Gross and Net Premiums Written

    Gross and Net Premiums Written $480 29.2% 30% $400 $383 28% $320 25% $273 $280 23.2% $240 23% 19.6% $146 $160 20% 19.5% $89 18.2% $80 $80 18% $51 $29 $13 $3 $— 15% 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD 2025 Gross Net Net Premium Retention Ratio 22

  23. Slide 23: Historical Underwriting Ratios

    Historical Underwriting Ratios 350.0% 331.9% 300.0% 250.0% 200.0% 160.8% 147.8% 150.0% 124.3% 121.9% 112.7% 106.5% 109.4% 106.7% 112.9% 100.3% 98.4% 100.5% 96.5% 102.1% 100.0% 50.0% —% 1Q2022 2Q2022 3Q2022 4Q2022 1Q2023 2Q2023 3Q2023 4Q2023 1Q2024 2Q2024 3Q2024 4Q2024 1Q2025 2Q2025 3Q2025 Net Loss R

  24. Slide 24: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information

    Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 Gross written premiums by line of business: Commercial auto liability.................................................................................

  25. Slide 25: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information (Continued)

    Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information (Continued) Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 Net premiums earned ......................................................................................................................

  26. Slide 26: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information (Continued)

    Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance Segment Information (Continued) Year ended December 31, ($ in millions) 3Q2025 2Q2025 1Q2025 4Q2024 3Q2024 2024 2023 2022 NWP / GWP ................................................................................................................................

  27. Slide 27: Corporate

    Ambac Corporate

  28. Slide 28: Corporate G&A Expense Trend

    Corporate G&A Expense Trend 3Q25 Reported Corporate Expenses $90.0 $2.3 $80.0 $77.1 $2.7 $73.2 $71.0 $70.1 $69.3 $0.4 $70.0 $3.7 $14.7 $60.0 $54.6 $50.0 $44.5 $2.8 $40.0 $36.1 $37.0 $31.8 3Q25 Adjusted Corporate Expenses $31.0 $28.2 $28.3 $28.3 $30.0 $26.6 $3.5 $2.1 $20.5 $27.3 $20.0 $14.6 $14.7 $13

  29. Slide 29: Select Corporate Cost Reduction Initiatives

    Select Corporate Cost Reduction Initiatives (all amounts are estimates) Gross Cost Impact on Corporate ($ in millions unless otherwise noted) 2025 2026 Reduction Adjusted EBITDA Completion Status Executive Management (#)(1) 7 4 $2.7 $2.3 Executive Management Compensation $11.5 $9.2 2.3 0.2 Reduction

  30. Slide 30: Share Repurchase Activity

    Share Repurchase Activity Shares Outstanding Shares Outstanding August 5, 2025 November 7, 2025 46,401,736 43,812,035(1) Estimated Proforma Basic WASO(2) Basic WASO October 1, 2025 through for quarter ended September 30, 2025 November 7, 2025 48,106,069 46,121,158(2) • Ambac reduced shares outstandi

  31. Slide 31: AFG Only Balance Sheet Summary

    AFG Only Balance Sheet Summary September 30, 2025 December 31, 2024 Assets: Total investments $ 245,681 $ 92,556 Cash and cash equivalents 11,010 9,983 Investment in subsidiaries 705,979 935,447 Other assets 32,518 19,861 Total assets $ 995,188 $ 1,057,847 Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity: Liabi

  32. Slide 32: Appendix

    Ambac Appendix

  33. Slide 33: Consolidated Comprehensive Income Data

    Consolidated Comprehensive Income Data Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, September June 30, March 31, December September (in millions, except per share data) 30, 2025 2025 2025 31, 2024 30, 2024 2024 2023 2022 Summary GAAP Financial Data: Net premiums earned ................................

  34. Slide 34: Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (Third Quarter)

    Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (Third Quarter) Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 2024 ($ in millions) SPC ID CORP CONS SPC ID CORP CONS Revenues: Commissions $ 36.1 $ 36.1 $ 23.1 $ 23.1 Servicing and other fees 4.9 4.9 2.3 2.3 Net premiums earned $ 17.0 17.0 $ 27.4 27.4 Program fees 3.6

  35. Slide 35: Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (Nine Months Ended 9/30)

    Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (Nine Months Ended 9/30) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 2024 ($ in millions) SPC ID CORP CONS SPC ID CORP CONS Revenues: Commissions $ 103.2 $ 103.2 $ 54.0 $ 54.0 Servicing and other fees 14.3 14.3 2.3 2.3 Net premiums earned $ 48.9 48.9 $ 80.1 80.1 Progr

  36. Slide 36: Consolidated Quarterly Balance Sheet Data

    Consolidated Quarterly Balance Sheet Data December 31, September June 30, March 31, December September (in millions, except per share data) 30, 2025 2025 2025 31, 2024 30, 2024 2024 2023 2022 Summary GAAP Financial Data: Total investments .............................................................

  37. Slide 37: Ambac Non-GAAP Financial Data

    Ambac Non-GAAP Financial Data Non-GAAP Financial Data In addition to reporting the Company’s quarterly financial results in accordance with GAAP, the Company is reporting non-GAAP financial measures: Organic Revenue Growth Rated (Insurance Distribution segment only), EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income and

  38. Slide 38: Adjusted Net Income & Margin (quarters ended 9/30)

    Adjusted Net Income & Margin (quarters ended 9/30) The following table reconciles Net income (loss) to the non-GAAP measure EBITDA as of each date presented: Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Corpo

  39. Slide 39: EBITDA Reconciliation (quarters ended 9/30)

    EBITDA Reconciliation (quarters ended 9/30) The following table reconciles Net income (loss) to the non-GAAP measure EBITDA as of each date presented: Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Corporate &

  40. Slide 40: EBITDA Reconciliation (nine months ended 9/30)

    EBITDA Reconciliation (nine months ended 9/30) The following table reconciles Net income (loss) to the non-GAAP measure EBITDA as of each date presented: Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Corporate &

  41. Slide 41: Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (quarters ended 9/30)

    Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (quarters ended 9/30) The following table reconciles Net income (loss) to the non-GAAP measure EBITDA as of each date presented: Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Cor

  42. Slide 42: Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (nine months ended 9/30)

    Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (nine months ended 9/30) The following table reconciles Net income (loss) to the non-GAAP measure EBITDA as of each date presented: Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 Specialty Specialty Property & Property & Casualty Insurance Co

  43. Slide 43: About Ambac

    About Ambac Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac” or “AFG”) is an insurance holding company headquartered in New York City. Ambac consists of a diverse mix of Contact specialty insurance underwriting and distribution businesses in the U.S. and U.K. Ambac’s common stock trades on the New York Stock Ex

Ambac Financial Group — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix