Slide 1: Natera, Inc. Q4'2024 Earnings Presentation
Natera, Inc. Q4’2024 Earnings Presentation February 27, 2025
Slide 2: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements under the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our market opportunity, our a
Slide 3: Q4 2024 highlights and recent business updates
Q4 2024 highlights and recent business updates • Revenue of $476M in Q4 2024 vs $311M in Q4 2023; year-over-year growth of 53%. • 793K total tests processed in Q4 2024 vs 627K in Q4 2023; year-over-year growth of 26%. • 151K oncology tests in Q4 2024 vs 98K in Q4 2023; year-over-year growth of 55%.
Slide 4: Volumes continue to ramp: Q4 growth of 26%
Volumes continue to ramp: Q4 growth of 26% 900K Core Volume Drivers 793K 800K • Record quarter for flagship PanoramaTM, 700K 26% 627K ProsperaTM and 600K 560K SignateraTM 500K 439K • New features and data 400K in women’s health 295K 300K 200K • New data and guidelines driving organ health 100K K • S
Slide 5: Signatera clinical units jump up ~15K units in Q4
Signatera clinical units jump up ~15K units in Q4 Signatera clinical tests processed 160K ~15K 145K 140K 130K 120K 118K 106K 100K 91K 81K 80K 72K 61K 60K 52K 40K 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 5 Not for reproduction or further distribution.
Slide 6: Total revenues jump 53% from Q4'23
Total revenues jump 53% from Q4’23 $500M $500M $476M Total revenues: last 6 quarters $476M Total revenues: YoY Q4 trend $450M $450M $440M $400M 53% $413M $350M $400M $311M $368M $300M $350M $250M $217M $311M $200M $173M $300M $150M $268M $112M $100M $250M $50M $200M $M Q3'23 3Q23 Q4'23 4Q23 Q1'24 1Q
Slide 7: ASPs and COGS execution ahead of plan
ASPs and COGS execution ahead of plan ~3% true up • Underlying gross margins Gross margins benefit (excluding true ups) quarterly trend ~3% true up ~4% true up benefit increased ~70 bps in Q4 65% benefit 63% 2024 over Q3 2024 62% • Continued sequential 60% ~4% true up 59% benefit 57% step up in ASPs
Slide 8: Generated roughly $46M of cash flow in Q4
Generated roughly $46M of cash flow in Q4 • Executing the strategy: Trend for quarterly cash outflow/cash inflow1 $46 cash flow improvement driven ($ in millions) $35 by continued revenue growth, improving gross margins, and 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 $3 $3 stable operating expenses 1Q2
Slide 9: Unlocking additional value from our core business
Unlocking additional value from our core business ADLT rate increase Increasing coverage in biomarker states Additional coverage for expanded carrier screening Deployment of AI tools across the business 9 Not for reproduction or further distribution.
Slide 10: Ongoing support for Natera's fetal RhD NIPT
Ongoing support for Natera’s fetal RhD NIPT RhD study published in The Green Journal1 Test demonstrated high performance metrics in largest study of its kind in the US with 100% sensitivity and 99.3% specificity Guideline support for fetal RhD NIPT ACOG support of testing for certain patients Expans
Slide 11: 2 prospective, multi-site studies of Prospera
2 prospective, multi-site studies of Prospera Novel studies in heart and kidney transplantation PEDAL (Prospera Kidney) DEFINE (Prospera Heart) • Objective: assess dd-cfDNA in the treatment • Objective: assess the rates of clinical outcomes period after rejection and their associations with dd-cfDNA
Slide 12: Medicare coverage of Signatera for surveillance in lung cancer
Medicare coverage of Signatera for surveillance in lung cancer Stage I NSCLC recurrence rates exceed stage II-III Key details CRC & early-stage HR+/HER- Breast Cancer1-3 5-year recurrence rate Stage I-III NSCLC patients in the 30% surveillance setting 25% 20% Expands upon preexisting Medicare covera
Slide 13: NCCN strengthens guidance on ctDNA in colon cancer, rectal cancer, and merkel cell carcinoma
NCCN strengthens guidance on ctDNA in colon cancer, rectal cancer, and merkel cell carcinoma Merkel Cell Carcinoma1 Colon Cancer2 Rectal Cancer3 Jan. 17, 2025 Feb. 7, 2025 Feb. 7, 2025 • Updated to include positive • Updated to include ctDNA • Updated to include ctDNA recommendation for ctDNA as a p
Slide 14: Readout of CALGB (Alliance)/SWOG 80702 at ASCO GI supports predictive nature of Signatera
Readout of CALGB (Alliance)/SWOG 80702 at ASCO GI supports predictive nature of Signatera in adjuvant CRC Study Highlights OS by ctDNA status and Celecoxib use • ACT + Celecoxib provided Signatera-negative 100 a significant benefit to Celecoxib 90 Signatera-positive patients No Celecoxib 80 – 3-year
Slide 15: Signatera harnesses the benefits of multiplex NGS PCR (mPCR)
Signatera harnesses the benefits of multiplex NGS PCR (mPCR) mPCR-NGS vs hybrid capture Targeted and deep vs wide and shallow Sequencing coverage: >100,000x per target Performance is based on more than just the number of targets: molecular biology approaches, variant selection techniques, calling al
Slide 16: Complete product portfolio for MRD detection
Complete product portfolio for MRD detection Tumor-informed Signatera Signatera Tissue-free designed on Exome designed on Genome MRD (CRC) • Most extensively • Informed by • Now available for validated, adopted, Signatera clinical data research use and reimbursed MRD • Now available for • Clinical a
Slide 17: Promising initial readout from early cancer detection
Promising initial readout from early cancer detection New Data ASCO GI Readout Prospective Asymptomatic Advanced Adenoma (AA) Study 127 CRC Cases Over 3,000 asymptomatic colonoscopy-screened • 47% stage I/II patients included in study • Ran 76 AA and 139 negative controls 305 colonoscopy-screened •
Slide 18: FY24 Q4 financial overview
FY24 Q4 financial overview ($ in millions, except for per share data) FY24 Q4 FY23 Q4 Change Y/Y Product revenues $472.9 $307.3 $165.6 Licensing and other revenues $3.2 $3.8 ($0.6) Total revenues $476.1 $311.1 $165.0 Gross margin % 62.9% 51.4% 11.5% R&D $129.5 $83.0 $46.5 SG&A $234.9 $161.4 $73.5 Ne
Slide 19: 2025 annual guidance
2025 annual guidance Guide $ (millions) Key drivers Continued volume growth across all business units, conservative women’s Revenue $1,870 – $1,950 health ASPs, strong oncology contribution Gross margin % 60% – 64% Conservative ASP assumptions, strong oncology growth revenue SG&A $950 – $975 Expande
Slide 20: '25 guidance midpoint implies 24% pro forma growth vs '24
‘25 guidance midpoint implies 24% pro forma growth vs ‘24 2025 Revenue drivers: Annual revenues $(millions) $2,000 • Strong volume growth $1,910 $1,900 across transplant, women’s health, $1,800 24% oncology $1,697 • Incremental ASP growth $1,700 driven by operational $1,600 improvements $1,546 • Bro
Slide 21: ©2025 Natera, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Not for reproduction or further distribution.
® ©2025 Natera, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Not for reproduction or further distribution.