Infratil Limited · NZX:IFT
Infratil — TrustPower — H1 FY2012 Earnings Presentation
23 slides from Infratil's earnings presentation, November 2011
Slide 1: Investor Briefing November 2011
Investor Briefing November 2011
Slide 2: TrustPower Key Facts
T tP TrustPower Key K Facts F t • Tauranga based national electricity generator / retailer. • p Market capitalisation circa NZD 2.3 billion. • Key Shareholders Infratil (50.5%), TECT (33.0%). • Freefloat 16.5%. • NZ generation capacity (hydro/wind) 630MW producing circa 2,367 GWh per annum in averag
Slide 3: NZ Electricity 7 Day Rolling Spot Prices Last 12 Months
NZ Electricity 7 Day Rolling Spot Prices Last 12 Months Weekly Average Prices - 12 Months to End of Oct 2011 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $/MWh $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct Benmore Haywards Huntly Otahuhu
Slide 4: New Zealand Daily Storage
w D 2 £ Y) = © (a) Oo Cc & rs o N S o Zz : 6 Nov 2011 Nominal NZ Full (Lakes Taupo, Tekapo, Pukaki, Hawea, Te Anau & Manapouri) NZ Actual Controlled Storage and Risk Curve SEREREEE RO YM ahe101s \ a TrustPower 2011/12 Actus! Storage ------ 8% Risk 2 2 2: 5 Mean NZ Storage se Zone 2010/11 Store -----
Slide 5: NZ Rolling 7 Day Demand Last 12 Months
NZ Rolling g 7 Day y Demand Last 12 Months
Slide 6: Change in Customer Numbers by Major Competitors – Last 3 Years
Change in Customer Numbers by Major Competitors – Last 3 Years TOTAL Cumulative Change in ICP Count by Retailer (base year Sept 08) 80000 60000 40000 20000 Contact Energy 0 Genesis Energy Mercury Energy ‐20000 Meridian Energy TrustPower ‐40000 Other ‐60000 ‐80000 ‐100000
Slide 7: Financial Summary First Half FY12
Financial Summaryy First Half FY12 Extracted from Unaudited Accounts HY Sep 12 HY Sep 11 % Change $ $m $ $m Operating Revenue 426.6 403.5 5.7 Operating Costs 265 0 265.0 255 8 255.8 36 3.6 EBITDAF 161.6 147.7 9.4 Depreciation and Amortisation 29.4 28.9 1.7 Fair Value (Gains) / Losses on Financial In
Slide 8: EBITDAF Bridge HY10-HY11
EBITDAF Bridge HY10-HY11 EBITDAF 175,000 170,000 165,000 i i 160,000 3 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 = T T T T r T T T T T September NZ Australian Mahinerangi Irrigation Other Retail margin Marketing NZ Carbon September 2010 generation generation cost generation revaluations 2011 volume (excl pric
Slide 9: Comments on Financial Result Key Points
Comments on Financial Result Keyy Points • NZ Generation volume 10% above long run expectation • Initial contribution from Mahinerangi Wind and Highbank Irrigation Pumping • Increased I dCCustomer t A Acquisition i iti costs t iimpacted t d retail t il margins i • Unsold carbon credit inventory reva
Slide 10: TrustPower Domestic Average Consumption (April – September) Last 10 Years
TrustPower Domestic Average Consumption (April – September) Last 10 Years Total Domestic Average Consumption: Apr ‐ Sep 4,600 4,400 4,200 pr ‐ Sep (kWh) 4,000 erage Volume: Ap 3,800 3,600 Ave 3,400 3,200 3,000 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Slide 11: EBITDAF, Underlying Earnings After Tax and Operating Cash Flow
EBITDAF, Underlying Earnings After Tax and Operating Cash Flow Six Months to 30 September EBITDAF, Operating Cash Flow & Underlying Earnings After Tax 180 160 140 120 100 $M's 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EBITDAF Operating cash flow Underlying earnings
Slide 12: Sources of Own Generation Six Months to September
Sources of Own Generation Six Months to 30 September Source of Own NZ Generation 1400 1200 GWh's Produced 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wind Generation y North Island Hydro y South Island Hydro
Slide 13: Electricity Volume Sold – Six Months to September
Electricity Volume Sold – Six Months to September Electricity Volume Sold 2500 2000 1500 GWh 1000 G 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Half Hourly Metered Mass Market
Slide 14: Overhead Costs and Customer Numbers
Overhead Costs and Customer Numbers Overhead Costs and Customer Numbers $ per Electricitty Customer 300 160 140 250 00's 120 Customers 00 200 100 150 80 60 100 40 50 20 0 0 Sep p 07 Sep p 08 Sep p 09 Sep p 10 Sep p 11 Telecommunication Services Electricity Customers Overheads Per Electricity Custome
Slide 15: Current Sources of Debt Funding
Current Sources of Debt Funding g Funding Sources Debt Maturity 0 129 600 NZD Bank 417 ECA Facility 500 263 Sub Bonds Senior Bonds 400 AUD Bank Z$m Unutilised 300 NZ 215 200 186 100 • Good mix of funding sources. • Debt capacity available to fund - 0-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7+ new ggeneration investment. Matu
Slide 16: Gearing
Gearing g Debt to Debt + Equity 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Slide 17: Competitor Benchmarking
Competitor Benchmarking g EBITDAF Return on Adjusted Capital Contact Genesis Meridian MRP TPW 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11
Slide 18: Dividends
Dividends Interim Dividend as % of Half Year Dividends Per Share Underlying Earnings and Cash Earnings 60 100 Diividend (cents per share) 95 50 90 85 40 80 % PROFIT 30 75 70 20 65 60 10 55 50 0 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 2008 2009 2010 2011 Six months Special Dividends to Sep-11 Sep 11 Divid
Slide 19: Regulatory Update - NZ
Regulatory g y Update - NZ Emissions Trading Scheme • Government Review of ETS Completed Key recommendations include: • Delay in charging emitters covered by the scheme for all emissions until 2015 (two years later than original plan). • Carbon pprice capp until at least 2017. $ $25 cap p to increas
Slide 20: Regulatory Update - Australia
Regulatory g y Update - Australia Australian MRET Legislation • MRET target increased from 9,500 GWh pa to 45,000 GWh pa by 2020 (increase equivalent to 1212,000 000 MW of new wind). • Small scale and large scale targets now separated into different schemes. Large scale renewable target now 41,000 G
Slide 21: Generation Development Pipeline
Generation Development Pipeline Generation Development Pipeline ‐ New Wind Generation Development Pipeline ‐ Zealand 140 A t li Australia 200 1,400 529 600 1,200 500 1 000 1,000 250 630 400 800 MW 600 MW 300 400 200 99 200 100 0 Existing Assets Consented Identified ‐ not yet 0 consented E i ti Asset
Slide 22: Group Strategic Focus
Group Strategic g Focus • Generation Development – Complete first phase of detailed design and geotech studies for Arnold Hydro – Amendment of Rakaia Water Conservation Order in order to progress Canterbury Irrigation strategy – Small schemes – confirmation of project economics and key contracts for
Slide 23: Outlook
Outlook • CAPEX for FY12 now likely to be in the range of NZD50-60m from original outlook of NZD60-75m due to delay in spend on customer information systems replacement and smallll h hydro d schemes. h