BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (February 2015)
31 slides from BP's investor presentation, Feb 17, 2015
Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2035
17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 2: Economic backdrop
Economic backdrop GDP Contribution to GDP growth Trillion, $2011 PPP Trillion $2011 PPP, 2013-35 240 90 Other Population Non-OECD Asia Income per person 180 OECD 60 120 30 60 0 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 OECD Non-OECD Asia Other Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 3: Global energy demand
Global energy demand Consumption by region Non-OECD Asia energy growth Billion toe % per annum 18 8% 15 Slower Other 6% GDP 12 growth Faster decline in 9 Non-OECD 4% energy Asia intensity 6 2% 3 OECD 0 0% 1965 2000 2035 2000-13 2013-35 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 4: Global energy demand by sector and fuel
Global energy demand by sector and fuel Consumption by sector Consumption by fuel Billion toe Billion toe 18 18 Renew.* Thousands 15 15 Hydro Nuclear 12 12 Gas 9 9 Other 6 6 Oil 3 Industry 3 Transport Coal 0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 5: Shares of primary energy
Shares of primary energy 50% 40% 30% Oil Coal 20% Gas Hydro 10% Nuclear Renewables* 0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 6: Power sector
Power sector Inputs to power as a share of Primary inputs to power total primary energy 50% 100% Oil 75% 40% Coal 50% Gas 30% Renew. 25% Nuclear Hydro 20% 0% 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 7: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply Production Billion toe 3 Renewables in power Shale gas 2 Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels 1 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 8: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply Production Technically recoverable resources Billion toe Billion toe 3 Renewables in power 0 20 40 60 Shale gas Asia Pacific 2 Tight oil, oil sands, North America biofuels S & C America 1 Africa Europe & Eurasia 0 Middle East Tight oil 1990 2005 2020 2035 Shale gas Sourc
Slide 9: New sources of energy supply
New sources of energy supply Production Technically recoverable resources Billion toe Billion toe 3 Renewables in power 0 20 40 60 Shale gas Asia Pacific 2 Tight oil, oil sands, North America biofuels S & C America 1 Africa Europe & Eurasia 0 Middle East Tight oil 1990 2005 2020 2035 Shale gas Sourc
Slide 10: Renewables in power generation
Renewables in power generation Renewables share of power Renewables growth 2013 to 2035 Thousand TWh 40% 1.2 EU 30% US 0.9 China 20% 0.6 10% 0.3 0% 0.0 1990 2005 2020 2035 China EU US OECD India Asia Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 11: Oil and other liquid fuels
Oil and other liquid fuels Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 12: Global liquids demand
Global liquids demand Demand Supply Mb/d 115 2035 level 110 2035 level Crude Other NGLs* 105 100 Mid East North Other Asia America 95 India Other 90 China 85 80 2013 OECD Non-OECD 2013 Non-OPEC OPEC decline growth growth growth Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 13: Global liquids demand and supply
Global liquids demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d 115 110 2035 level Crude Other NGLs 105 100 Mid East North Other Asia America 95 India Other 90 China 85 80 2013 OECD Non-OECD 2013 Non-OPEC OPEC decline growth growth growth Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 14: Tight oil and OPEC balance
Tight oil and OPEC balance Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 120% 5 Other Russia 100% Other S & C America China 80% 4 Canada & Mexico 60% NGLs 3 US 40% US 2 20% Tight oil 1 0% OPEC crude 0 -20% 2005-20 2020-35 2005-20 2020-35 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 15: Tight oil and OPEC balance
Tight oil and OPEC balance Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 120% 5 Other Russia 100% Other S & C America China 80% 4 Canada & Mexico 60% NGLs 3 US 40% US 2 20% Tight oil 1 0% OPEC crude 0 -20% 2005-20 2020-35 2005-20 2020-35 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 16: Oil trade
Oil trade Regional imbalances Net exports Mb/d Mb/d 75 Middle East FSU 2 China US India Europe Asia Pacific 0 50 Africa S&C America N America -2 25 -4 -6 0 -8 -10 -25 -12 -50 -14 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 17: Natural gas
Natural gas Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 18: Global supply and demand for natural gas
Global supply and demand for natural gas Production by type and region Consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 500 Non-OECD other Transport Non-OECD shale Other 400 OECD shale 400 Power OECD other Industry 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l
Slide 19: Growth of LNG
Growth of LNG LNG supply Shares of global gas consumption Bcf/d 80 40% Other Africa Total trade 60 Australia 30% US Russia Pipeline 40 Qatar 20% 20 10% LNG 0 0% 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 20: Sources of gas supply to Europe
Sources of gas supply to Europe Bcf/d 60 40 Net pipeline import Net LNG import Domestic production 20 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 21: Key uncertainties
Key uncertainties Low GDP growth Climate policies - what if growth in China and India - what if policymakers take more slows more rapidly than assumed? actions to reduce emissions? Geopolitics China’s electrification - what are the implications of - what if China’s electricity use heightened geopoli
Slide 22: Low GDP growth
Low GDP growth what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 23: Low GDP growth alternative
Low GDP growth alternative Differences from base case in 2035 GDP and energy demand Energy demand by fuel 0% 0% -5% -2% -4% -10% -6% -15% -8% GDP Energy -20% -10% -25% -12% World OECD Non-OECD Other Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renew. Asia & hydro Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 24: Climate policies
Climate policies what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 25: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 1990 = 100 500 GDP Energy 400 CO₂ 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 26: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 1990 = 100 500 GDP Energy 400 CO₂ 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 27: GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions
GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 1990 = 100 500 GDP Energy 400 CO₂ 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 © BP p.l.c. 2015
Slide 28: Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions Global emissions Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions* Billion tonnes CO2 42 Abatement option Change required 36 Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% 30 Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% 24 Increase renewables power generation 11% 18
Slide 29: Carbon emissions: some possible options
Carbon emissions: some possible options Global emissions Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions Billion tonnes CO2 42 Abatement option Change required 36 Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% 30 Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% 24 Increase renewables p
Slide 30: Conclusion
Conclusion Continuous change is the norm for energy markets Changing energy mix − gas fastest growing fossil fuel, coal the slowest − continued rapid growth in renewables Changing energy trade patterns − increasingly flowing from West to East Changing the carbon emissions path? − no silver bullet, n
Slide 31: BP Energy Outlook 2035
17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats © BP p.l.c. 2015