Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS

Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference 2015

32 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Sep 16, 2015

1. Slide 1: The Mosaic Company

   The Mosaic Company September 2015

2. Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement

   Safe Harbor Statement This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as the Ma’aden joint venture), the a

3. Slide 3: Near-term Market Update

   Near-term Market Update New Crop Corn Price US$ BU Daily Close Dec '15 Contract 4.70 Macro Environment Source: CME 4.50 4.30 Headwinds: 4.10  US Dollar Strength 3.90 3.70  China Developments: 3.50  RMB Devaluation  Fertilizer VAT US$ BU New Crop Soybean Price Daily Close Nov '15 Contract  Weake

4. Slide 4: Effective Potash Capacity Overstated

   Effective Potash Capacity Overstated 2014 2020F Capacity  20 million tonnes  29 million tonnes  87%  81% Op Rate Capacity  23 million tonnes  27 million tonnes  99%  93% Op Rate Capacity  66 million tonnes  80 million tonnes Op Rate  94%  89% 4 Source: Mosaic

5. Slide 5: Maximum Output in Peak Years Is The Best Measure of Effective Capacity

   Maximum Output in Peak Years Is The Best Measure of Effective Capacity MOP Production and Operating Rate 90,000 100% 80,000 95% 70,000 90% Operating Rate 85% Million Tonnes 60,000 80% 50,000 75% 40,000 70% 30,000 65% 20,000 60% 10,000 55% 0 50% Canada FSU Other Operating Rate 5 Source: Mosaic

6. Slide 6: Q: Then Why Aren't MOP Prices Up? A: FX

   Q: Then Why Aren’t MOP Prices Up? A: FX $370 Average Realized MOP Price per Tonne $357 $355 $350 $330 $342 $344 $310 $290 $270 $280 $250 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 USD CAD Realized MOP Price in CAD was higher in Q1 2015 than in Q3 2013 6 Source: Bloomberg (averag

7. Slide 7: Phosphate Fundamentals Tightening

   Phosphate Fundamentals Tightening 2014 2020F Capacity  19million tonnes P205  20 million tonnes P205 Op Rate  87%  87% Capacity  5 million tonnes P205  7 million tonnes P205 Op Rate  81%  92% Capacity  50 million tonnes P205  55 million tonnes P205 Op Rate  84%  88% 7 Source: Mosaic

8. Slide 8: Upward Sloping Operating Rate

   Upward Sloping Operating Rate Global Phosphate Capacity and Operating Rate 60,000 100% 95% Million Tonnes P205 50,000 90% 85% 40,000 Operating Rate 80% 30,000 75% 70% 20,000 65% 60% 10,000 55% 0 50% China Morocco Other Effective Operating Rate 8 Source: CRU and Mosaic

9. Slide 9: Why Mosaic?

   Why Mosaic?

10. Slide 10: Visible Strategic Progress

    Visible Strategic Progress Q2 2013 EPS vs. Q2 2015 $1.80 $1.60 $0.16 $0.16 $1.40 $0.06 $0.21 $1.20 $0.43 $0.06 $0.17 Visible $1.00 $0.80 Strategic Progress $0.60 $1.08 $1.01 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 Q2 2013 P Volume K Cash SG&A Share P Price K Price All Other* Q2 2015 Cost/mt Count Benefit of Mosaic’s Stra

11. Slide 11: Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position

    Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position Top 10 Potash Producers in 2014 ($/Tonne) Q2’2015 MOP cash costs = 300 $89/tonne 2014 MOP Industry Cost Curve FOB Port 250 200 150 Brine 100 Mosaic Sask 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Million Tonnes Based on 2014 production K 2 O production b ased on MOP, SOP,

12. Slide 12: Visible Strategic Progress

    Visible Strategic Progress $400 $342 $350 $300 $280 $250 $200 $148 $153 $150 $100 $50 $0 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Potash Gross Margin (excluding resource taxes and royalties)/tonne Average Realized MOP Price/Tonne - USD Maintaining Profitability Despite Lower P

13. Slide 13: Potash: Investing for Growth

    Potash: Investing for Growth Potash Gross Margin Impact ($ in millions) $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 +17% $1,076 $950 Volume Growth $900 $923 $850 $800 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Opportunity to Reduce Brine Spending After 2018 * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those s

14. Slide 14: Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position

    Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position Top 10 Phosphate Producers in 2014 Based on 2014 production Mosaic P2O5 production includes acquired CF Industries phosphate business P2O5 production based on PACID and SSP production OCP P2O5 production split between finished phosphate product use and PACI

15. Slide 15: Market Leadership Benefiting Margins

    Market Leadership Benefiting Margins $500 $450 $450 $436 $400 $350 1. Lower Input $300 Costs $250 $321 2. Higher Cash $308 Margins $200 $150 $100 $142 $50 $115 $- Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Cash Margin (GM + DD&A)/Tonne DAP Price (FOB plant) Improving Profitabili

16. Slide 16: Phosphates: Investing for Growth

    Phosphates: Investing for Growth Phosphate Gross Margin Impact ($ in millions) $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 +56% Raw Materials $1,300 Ma’aden $1,200 MicroEssentials® $1,100 CF Industries $1,466 $1,000 $937 Phosphates $900 $800 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and unce

17. Slide 17: Distribution Strength

    Distribution Strength Mosaic ARCTIC OCEAN

18. Slide 18: International Distribution: Investing in Growth

    International Distribution: Investing in Growth ($ in millions) International Distribution Gross Margin $280 $260 $240 $220 +74% $200 ADM $180 Distribution Incremental Tonnes MicroEssentials® $160 & Volume Growth $140 $120 $147 $256 $100 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F * Assumptions in Appendix. Subjec

19. Slide 19: Capital Deployment

    Capital Deployment

20. Slide 20: Capital Management Priorities

    Capital Management Priorities Return Grow Business $47 per Share Sustain Assets & Dividend Maintain Strong Financial Foundation Expect to Continue to Generate Strong Cash Flow and Excess Cash 20

21. Slide 21: A Track Record of Dividend Growth

    A Track Record of Dividend Growth ($ per share) Dividend per Share $1.2 $1.0 +10% $1.10 $0.8 450% $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Annualized 21 Source: Mosaic

22. Slide 22: Meaningful Share Repurchases

    Meaningful Share Repurchases ($ in billions) $4.8 $4.3  Completed $0.6 2015 $3.8 $500 Million YTD $3.3 Accelerated $2.8 $2.8 2014 $2.3 $1.8 +  $1.0 Billion 2011 $1.3 $0.8 Authorization $1.2 $0.3 Remaining -$0.2 $4.6 billion in total, or ~90 million shares, >20% of beginning float 22 Source: Mosaic

23. Slide 23: Smart Capital Deployment

    Smart Capital Deployment Investment for Shareholder Growth Returns Capital Stewardship 23 Source: Mosaic

24. Slide 24: Leverage to Cyclical Improvement

    Leverage to Cyclical Improvement Significant Free Cash Flow Leverage (After Dividends) ($ in millions) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 347% $814 $1,000 $1,139 $1,025 $500 $437 $617 $506 $0 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Free Cash Flow Scenario: P&K Prices up $50 • Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and un

25. Slide 25: Investment Thesis

    Investment Thesis • In this cyclical industry, the positive secular trends continue. • Long-term value creation is predicated on effective capital deployment. • Capital deployment near the trough of the cycle maximizes value creation: – Depressed investment values – Increasing leverage to the upcycl

26. Slide 26: Thank you

    Thank you

27. Slide 27: Appendix

    Appendix <— Mosel

28. Slide 28: Appendix: Assumptions

    Appendix: Assumptions Phosphates:  Ma’aden JV contribution embedded in gross margin, actual reporting is as an equity investment under U.S. GAAP.  ADM business includes an incremental, 2 million tonnes of blended product plus synergies.  Raw material savings result of increased NH3 manufacturing

29. Slide 29: Appendix: Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day

    Appendix: Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Cash Flow from Operations $1,726(a) $2,222 $2,341 $2,594 $2,633 Capex ($906) ($1,204) ($1,415) ($1,129) ($1,034) Dividends ($383) ($401) ($420) ($440) ($461) FCF Less Dividends $437 $617 $506 $1,025 $1,138 (a) adj

30. Slide 30: Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation CY2014 Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation Cash flow from operations (GAAP) $2,294 Changes in working capital (300) Loss on write-down of Carlsbad (125) Unrealized loss on derivatives (35) Change in value of share repurchase agreement (60) Amortization

31. Slide 31: Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Potash Gross Margin $162 $135 $216 $226 $154 $327 $242 $295 (GAAP) Resource Taxes $31 $57 $30 $45 $46 $48 $78 $55 Royalties $11 $9 $6 $7 $6 $8 $11 $9 Potash Gross Margin (excluding resource $204 $201 $2

32. Slide 32: Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Phosphate Gross $129 $134 $200 $271 $236 $231 $222 $296 Margin (GAAP) Depreciation, Depletion $72 $75 $79 $93 $91 $97 $94 $99 & Amortization Phosphate Cash Margin $201 $209 $279 $364 $327 $328 $316 $395

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