Efg Holding S.a.e. · EGX:HRHO
Efg Holding S.a.e — EFG-Hermes — Middle East Telecom Conference 2003
11 slides from Efg Holding S.a.e's conference presentation, January 2003
Slide 1: Regional Mobiles: the New World Order
Presentation to Middle East Telecom Conference Regarding Regional Mobiles: the New World Order January 2003
Slide 2: The Issues
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order The Issues n Ultimate penetration rates n Tariffs structure n ARPU trends n Data & Internet contribution n Sustainable EBITDA margins – efficiency issues n Return on capital employed at home and overseas n Going regional
Slide 3: GSM Monopolies Under Threat
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order GSM Monopolies Under Threat GSM Revenues / Total Revenues GSM Other 100% 90% 80% 54% 70% 60% 62% 67% 60% Q-Tel’s GSM business netted US$ 50% 94 million on revenues of US$ 113 million in the 9 months ending 40% September 2002 30% 46% 20% 40% 38% 33% 10% 0% Etisal
Slide 4: Cash Traps
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order Cash Traps Net Cash (Debt) Position In US$ Million 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Cash Return: 1 – 2% 800 Cost of Equity: 10+ % 600 400 200 - Etisalat STC Batelco Q-Tel (200) Source: Latest Company Financials Date: STC & Etisalat as of 2001, Batelco as of June 2002, Q-
Slide 5: Existing Business Model Constraints: Mobile Penetration vs. GDP
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order The Existing Business Model Constraints Mobile Penetration vs. Per Capital GDP 90% 80% Portugal UK Greece 70% UAE 60% France What is the ultimate 50% Bahrain Kuwait penetration? 40% Qatar 30% Jordan KSA 20% Lebanon Morocco 10% Egypt Tunisia Algeria 0% - 5,000 10
Slide 6: Existing Business Model Constraints: Tariffs and ARPUs
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order The Existing Business Model Constraints Post Paid Tariffs 2002 Estimated ARPUs US$ / Minute US$ / Sub/ Month 0.20 70 0.18 60 0.16 0.14 50 0.12 40 0.10 0.08 30 0.06 20 0.04 10 0.02 - Cellis MobiNil - Fastlink Etisalat Batelco Q-Tel STC Maroc Tel MTC OTT OTA MobiN
Slide 7: New Business Model
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order The New Business Model The No. of EBITDA Business X ARPU X Subscribers Margin Model n Competition n Rate Reduction n Increase in SAC / SRC n Market Share n MOUs Maintenance Growth Investors Uncertainty Issues Implications ? ê ê
Slide 8: Efforts: Avant Garde, Conservatives, New Kids
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order Regional Efforts The Avant Garde The Conservatives The New Kids on the Block Who is Next
Slide 9: Map of Operators by Country
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order Regional Map Egypt Tunisia Lebanon Jordan Kuwait Vodafone Tunisie Telecom 1st Operator: ? MTC Wataniya Orange / OT OT / Wataniya 2nd Operator:? Orange MTC 3rd Operator: ? Morocco Bahrain Vivendi Universal Batelco Telefonica nd 2 Operator: ? Algeria Qatar Telecom
Slide 10: Upcoming Opportunities
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order Upcoming Opportunities n A second GSM license is being offered n Deadlines for submission of applications is March 5th 2003 n A beauty auction will be carried out n Issuance of license is expected by end of April 2003 n Government is re-offering the two GSM lice
Slide 11: Valuations in a Changing Landscape
Regional Mobiles: the New World Order Valuations in a Changing Landscape EBITDA CAGR vs. EBITDA Multiples Dividend Yields** 2002 – 2005 EBITDA CAGR 30% 8% 7% 25% Vimpelcom MTC* 6% 20% 5% 4% 15% Partner MobiNil Turkcell 3% MTS 10% Panafon 2% Q-Tel CosmOTE 5% 1% Batelco 0% Vimpelcom Turkcell Mobinil C