H. Lundbeck A/S Class A · OMXCOP:HLUN_A
H. Lundbeck A/S Class A — Q1 2003 Earnings Presentation
53 slides from H. Lundbeck A/S Class A's earnings presentation, May 15, 2003
Slide 1: H. Lundbeck A/S Q1-2003
H. Lundbeck A/S Q1-2003
Slide 2: Safe Harbour Statement
Safe Harbour Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Management’s current views with respect to certain future events and financial performance. Statements containing the outlook for 2003 and the following years naturally involve uncertainties, and consequent
Slide 3: About Lundbeck
About Lundbeck H. Lundbeck A/S • A unique fully-integrated pharmaceutical company focusing solely on the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system • Our vision is to become the world leader in psychiatry and neurology Business and R&D focus areas • Psychiatry • Neurology • Depression • Dem
Slide 4: Mid-/Long-term Growth Drivers & Financial Outlook
Mid-/Long-term Growth Drivers & Financial Outlook Mid/Long term Growth Drivers Long-term Financial Outlook • Establish US Salesforce • Improve growth rates beyond IPO targets after transition year 2003 • Continue to strengthen pipeline through in-house R&D and • Drive margin expansion through licens
Slide 5: Short-term Challenges & Financial Outlook 2003
Short-term Challenges & Financial Outlook 2003 Challenges Financial Outlook 2003 • Cipralex/Lexapro launch • Approx 10% revenue growth • Intensified generic impact on • Approx 12% EBIT growth citalopram franchise • Backend-loaded growth on EBIT • Ebixa launch and revenue growth 5, Thursday, 15 May 2
Slide 6: Geographical Expansion
Geographical Expansion 1992 2002 Regional sales organisation Global sales organisation 100 sales reps 2.142 Lundbeck sales reps 2.300 Forest sales reps Lundbeck subsidiaries Lundbeck partner alliance 6, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 7: Sales force expansion has made Lundbeck a dominant player in antidepressants
Sales force expansion has made Lundbeck a dominant player in the antidepressant market with Cipramil Market leader in 22 countries Value Market Share rank, Depression * 1 2 3 4 <4 *) Forest 7, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 8: N6A value market shares in Europe
N6A value market shares in Europe 25% 21% 20% 18% 15% 13% 12% 12% 10% 6% 5% 1% 0% E E AM E E E E IN N N IN N N TI PI TI XI PR AL M ZA XE XE FA XA O TR O UO AL TA LA O R R SE T UV N IR PA FL CI VE M FL 8, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 9: Sensitivity to potential generic competition
Sensitivity to potential generic competition Loss of sales > 50% 25% - 50% < 25% 9, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 10: Sensitivity to potential generic competition
Sensitivity to potential generic competition High generic exposure 32% Low generic exposure 58% Medium generic exposure 10% Cipramil sales Q4 2002 10, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 11: Huge growth potential in depression market
Huge growth potential in depression market Treatment: Index 100 Treatment Diagnosed Prevalence 0 100 200 300 400 Source: Decision Resources, November 2002, major 7 pharmaceutical markets 11, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 12: Cipralex/Lexapro registration and launch overview
Cipralex/Lexapro registration and launch overview Cipralex/Lexapro Launched Cipralex/Lexapro Registered 12, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 13: Cipralex launch – coverage of N6A Lundbeck markets
Cipralex launch – coverage of N6A Lundbeck markets 25% % of total N6A market (value) 20% 8% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Source: IMS, 2001 Lundbeck markets: 25% of total N6A market US: 73% of total N6A market Japan: 2% of total N6A market 13, Thursday
Slide 14: Cipralex launch
Cipralex launch Cipralex Launch first half Launch second half Launched 2003 2003 Switzerland India Lithuania Sweden Spain South Africa UK Central Europe Middle East Region Estonia Eastern Europe France Latvia Germany Denmark Pakistan Austria Canada Norway Portugal Bulgaria Australia Ireland Turkey F
Slide 15: Cipralex total market share, value
Cipralex total market share, value From launch with reimbursement 14% 12% 10% % of N6A market 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 Months after Cipralex/Lexapro launch CH S UK DK A IRL USA 15, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 16: Cipralex value market penetration - Switzerland
Cipralex value market penetration - Switzerland Cipralex penetration vs. competitors 5,0% 4,5% Value marketshare - N6A 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Launch Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Time after launch Cipralex Effexor Remeron 16, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 17: Cipralex value market penetration - Sweden
Cipralex value market penetration - Sweden Cipralex penetration vs. competitors 3,0% Value marketshare - N6A 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Launch Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Time after launch Cipralex Effexor Remeron 17, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 18: Cipralex value market penetration - UK
Cipralex value market penetration - UK Cipralex penetration vs. competitors 2,5% Value marketshare - N6A 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Launch Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Time after launch Cipralex Effexor Remeron 18, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 19: Cipralex value market penetration - Denmark
Cipralex value market penetration - Denmark Cipralex penetration vs. competitors 5,0% 4,5% Value marketshare - N6A 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Launch Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Time after launch Cipralex Effexor Remeron 19, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 20: Cipralex value market penetration - Austria
Cipralex value market penetration - Austria Cipralex penetration vs. competitors 7,0% Value marketshare - N6A 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Launch Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Time after launch Cipralex Effexor Remeron 20, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 21: Citalopram/escitalopram sales on the largest markets for antidepressants
Citalopram/escitalopram sales on the 7 largest markets for antidepressants Sales DKKm Q1 2003 Q1 2002 Change UK 144.8 229.9 -37% - Cipramil 115.1 229.9 -50% - Cipralex 29.7 0 ---- France 153.3 171.0 -10% Germany 30.1 84.3 -64% Spain 64.4 65.5 -2% Italy 97.9 66.9 46% Canada 158.7 133.5 19% License sa
Slide 22: New Rx Market Share in USA
New Rx Market Share in USA Lexapro, 18 April 2003 – 11,56% 24,0% 21,0% 18,0% 15,0% 12,0% 9,0% 6,0% 3,0% 0,0% Week 35 Week 37 Week 39 Week 41 Week 43 Week 45 Week 47 Week 49 Week 51 Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 Week 9 Week 11 Week 13 Week 15 Week 17 CELEXA LEXAPRO COMBINED SSRI Market (Celexa, Lexapro
Slide 23: Forest income recognition
Forest income recognition Lundbeck P&L 1. Guaranteed minimum price booked as Forest income on revenue line 2. Actual sales price added as Forest income Lundbeck Balance sheet 1. Difference between minimum price and prepayment booked 1. Bulk delivery to Forest as “Prepayment from Forest” 2. Actual sa
Slide 24: A market being created – 46% growth within Alzheimer's in 02
A market being created – 46% growth within Alzheimer’s in 2002 Treatment: Index 100 Treatment Diagnosed Prevalence 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 24, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 25: Lundbeck Ebixa rights
Lundbeck Ebixa® rights Exclusive Semi-exclusive 25, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 26: Ebixa launch status
Ebixa® launch status Registered, not yet launched Launched 26, Thursday, 15 May 2003 Status April 2003
Slide 27: Ebixa launch – coverage of N7D1 Lundbeck markets
Ebixa launch – coverage of N7D1 Lundbeck markets 30% 15% % of total N6A market (value) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Source: IMS, 2001 Lundbeck markets: 31% of total N7D1 market US: 60% of total N7D1 market Japan: 9% of total N7D1 market 27, Thursday,
Slide 28: Ebixa launch
Ebixa launch Ebixa Launched Launch 2003 Launch 2003+ Austria Australia Asia Germany Belgium Canada Holland France Latin America Ireland Portugal Middle East Mexico Switzerland South Africa Scandinavia Central Europe Turkey UK Eastern Europe Italy Greece Spain 28, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 29: Ebixa market share, value
Ebixa market share, value From launch with reimbursement 12% 10% % of N6A market 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 Months after Ebixa launch GER UK S N DK FIN IRL NL A MEX GR E Source: IMS 29, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 30: Existing late-stage pipeline
Existing late-stage pipeline Compound Activity Indication 2003 2004 2005 2005+ III/NDA Launch Escitalopram SSRI SAD Rasagiline MAO-B Parkinson’s NDA Launch Alzheimer’s Memantine NMDA antagonist III NDA Launch Mild to Moderate Sertindole D2-5HT2 Schizophrenia PMS Launch Bifeprunox Dopamine/serotonin
Slide 31: Q1 2003 - Highlights
Q1 2003 - Highlights • Revenue amounts to DKK 2,395 million compared to DKK 2,378 for Q1 2002 • Sales of Cipralex amounts to DKK 78 million • Sales of Cipramil decreased 17% to DKK 1,145 million • Sales of Ebixa amounts to DKK 29 million • Income from Celexa sales in the USA increased from DKK 484 m
Slide 32: Strong revenue growth
Strong revenue growth CAGR 1998 - 2002: 31% Other turnover 24% 9.5 Antipsychotics DKK billion Other antidepressants 7.7 Cipralex/Lexapro 36% Cipramil/Celexa 5.6 4.0 1% 3.2 2.4 2.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Q1-2002 Q1-2003 32, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 33: 70% of total revenue from the largest CNS markets in the world
70% of total revenue from the 7 largest CNS markets in the world Q1 - 2002 Q1 - 2003 RoW UK RoW UK Canada 6% Canada France 11% 5% 7% 6% France 7% 7% 7% Germany Germany 3% 5% Spain 3% Spain Italy US 3% 4% 32% Italy 3% US Rest of 39% Europe Rest of Europe 25% 27% 33, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 34: Hedging – an example
Hedging – an example A 12 month forward Average hedging rate deal contract USD exchange The exchange rate is always locked 12 months ahead at the current exchange Current rate – with 12 exchange rate months delay 12 months Time 34, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 35: Cost structure & operating margin development
Cost structure & operating margin development Operating Costs Operating Margin 8 % 30 R&D 18.6% 7 23.7% S,G&A 38.7% 25 6 COGS 19.1% 5 20 DKK Billion 4 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Q1- Q1- 1999 2000 2001 2002 Q1-2003 2002 2003 35, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 36: Cash flow
Cash flow (DKK million) Q1 2003 Q1 2002 Cash flow from operating -191 72 activities Cash flow from investing -875 -164 activities Cash flow from operating and -1065 -92 investing activities, net Cash flow from financing 686 281 activities Increase in cash and cash -380 189 equivalents 36, Thursday,
Slide 37: Appendix
H. Lundbeck A/S Appendix
Slide 38: More information please contact Investor Relations & Corporate Reporting
More information please contact Investor Relations & Corporate Reporting Steen Juul Jensen Jacob Tolstrup Anette Kirkeby Divisional Director Investor Relations Officer Event Coordinator Investor Relations & Investor Relations & Investor Relations & Corporate Reporting Corporate Reporting Corporate R
Slide 39: Key figures
Key figures Q1 2003 Q1 2002 Earnings per share – EPS (DKK) 1.52 1.91 Cash flow per share – CFPS (DKK) - 0.82 0.31 Operating margin (%) 23.7 32.6 Return on net assets (%) 10.3 15.2 Return on equity (%) 6.0 9.1 Solvency ratio (%) 61.2 59.3 Net asset value per share (DKK) 26.27 21.76 39, Thursday, 15 M
Slide 40: Depression – 15.9 bill. USD
Depression – 15.9 bill. USD 28% 72% Rest of Europe Q2 2002 Fluvoxamine world USA Q2 2002 North 7% Fluoxetine America 75% Citalopram Sertraline Europe Paroxetine 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Leading product Marketing Corporation Sales 2001 (USDm) Growth in % Seroxat®/Paxil® GlaxoSmithKline 2,848 18 Zoloft®
Slide 41: Mature but still growing – healthy growth
Mature but still growing – healthy growth Euro Mill. 20000 70% MAT Q2 02 Sales 18000 Growth 60% 16000 14000 50% 12000 40% 10000 30% 8000 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0 0% Anaesthetics Narcotic Anti-Migraine Anti- Anti- Anti- Hypnotics & Anti- Anti- General Analgesics Preps Epileptics Parkinson psychotics
Slide 42: Patients achieved sustained remission faster on ESC than on venlafaxine XR
Patients achieved sustained remission 6.6 days faster on ESC than on venlafaxine XR Montgomery et al, Poster presented at ECNP, 2002 80 70 ESC (N=125) * Percentage of patients with 60 VLF (N=124) sustained response 50 ** * p ≤0.05 vs VLF ** p <0.01 vs VLF 40 ** 30 20 * 10 0 Day 7 14 21 28 42 Percent
Slide 43: Escitalopram offers significant tolerability advantages compared with venlafaxine
Escitalopram offers significant tolerability advantages compared with venlafaxine Montgomery et al, ECNP 2002 30 * VLF (N=148) No other TEAEs with an 25 ESC (N=145) incidence above 5% showed any significant difference * p <0.05 Percentage of patients 20 15 * 10 * 5 0 Nausea Sweating Constipation inc
Slide 44: Escitalopram compared to citalopram in severe depression
Escitalopram compared to citalopram in severe depression CIT 40 mg (N=60) 9 ESC 20 mg (N=51) # Baseline MADRS total score ≥30 8 MADRS total score at endpoint # p<0.05 vs CIT 7 Change from placebo in 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CIT 40 mg ESC 20 mg H. Lundbeck, data on file (study MD-01) 44, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 45: Alzheimer's – 1.2 bill. USD
Alzheimer’s – 1.2 bill. USD 2% 98% Rest of world Europe Q2 2002 North Tacrine 13% USA Q2 2002 America 63% Galantamine Rivastigmine Europe Donepezil 24% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Leading product Marketing Corporation Sales 2001 (USDm) Growth in % Aricept® Pfizer 923 26 Exelon® Novartis 228 119 Reminyl® John
Slide 46: Alzheimer's - high growth market
Alzheimer’s - high growth market Euro Mill. 20000 70% MAT Q2 02 Sales 18000 Growth 60% 16000 14000 50% 12000 40% 10000 30% 8000 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0 0% Anaesthetics Narcotic Anti-Migraine Anti- Anti- Anti- Hypnotics & Anti- Anti- General Analgesics Preps Epileptics Parkinson psychotics Sedatives
Slide 47: Overview of Marketed Compounds for AD
Overview of Marketed Compounds for AD Donepezil Rivastigmine Galantamine Memantine Indications Mild to moderate Mild to moderate Mild to moderate (M- Moderately severe to (M-M) (M-M) M) severe (MS-S) MMSE 24-12 24-12 24-12 15-4 Launch 1997 1998 2000 2002 Position in class 1st 2nd 3rd 1st Titration N
Slide 48: Selected pipeline compounds for AD
Selected pipeline compounds for AD Name Class Company Phase Phenserine AchEI Axonyx II Lovastatin Statin Andrx II NS 2330 DA, NA and AchE activity NeuroSearch/BI II Colostrinin Immunomodulator ReGen III Therapeutics Xaliproden NGF agonist Sanofi-Synthelabo II Aggregate modulators/ I-II gamma secreta
Slide 49: Antipsychotics – 7.7 bill. USD
Antipsychotics – 7.7 bill. USD 14% 86% North Amisulpride Europe Q2 2002 Rest of America% USA Q2 2002 Clozapine world 69% 11% Ziprasidone Quetiapine Risperidone Olanzapine Europe% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% Leading product Marketing Corporation Sales 2001 (USDm) Growth in % Zyprexa® Eli Lilly 3,226 3
Slide 50: Antipsychotics - Major value conversion
Antipsychotics - Major value conversion Euro Mill. 20000 70% 18000 MAT Q2 02 Sales 60% Growth 16000 14000 50% 12000 40% 10000 30% 8000 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0 0% Anaesthetics Narcotic Anti-Migraine Anti- Anti- Anti- Hypnotics & Anti- Anti- General Analgesics Preps Epileptics Parkinson psychotics Se
Slide 51: Parkinson's – 1.7 bill. USD
Parkinson’s – 1.7 bill. USD 3% 97% North America 37% Europe 34% Rest of world Cabergolin Europe Q2 2002 29% USA Q2 2002 Benserazid/Levodopa Pergolid Entacapon Ropinirol Pramipexol Carbidopa/Levodopa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 51, Thursday, 15 May 2003
Slide 52: Parkinson's - A mature & relatively stable market
Parkinson’s - A mature & relatively stable market Euro Mill. 20000 70% MAT Q2 02 Sales 18000 Growth 60% 16000 14000 50% 12000 40% 10000 30% 8000 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0 0% Anaesthetics Narcotic Anti-Migraine Anti- Anti- Anti- Hypnotics & Anti- Anti- General Analgesics Preps Epileptics Parkinson psy
Slide 53: Drugs in Development – Parkinson's disease
Drugs in Development – Parkinson’s disease Compound Mode of action Company Clinical Phase Chiesi 1512 Dopamine precursor Chiesi Launch date 2004 + decarboxylase Levodopa methyl inhibitor ester + carbidopa Levodopa+ D presursor+ Novartis Launch date 2003 Carbidopa+ decarb+ COMT entacapone inhibitor K