Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Technical Presentation (February 2015)
18 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's technical presentation, Feb 2, 2015
Slide 1: Adequacy calculations for Belgium - Strategic reserves volume
Adequacy calculations for Belgium - Strategic reserves volume WG Belgian Grid – 02/02/2015 Cindy Bastiaensen Expert market, adequacy & economic analysis
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Modelling and hypotheses 2. Strategic reserves volume evaluation 2
Slide 3: Introduction and timeline
Introduction and timeline The exercise of strategic reserves volume evaluation is made every year in November. The evaluation is sent to the minister of energy in order to take a decision on the volume to be contracted for next year. Input from DG Elia gives an advise DG Energy gives Decision on the
Slide 4: Input data for the simulations
Input data for the simulations Available sources Variables Generation Climatological variables • Nuclear and fossil production • Solar production • Renewables • Wind production • Pump/turbine • Temperature • Production in distribution network Economical activity Operational reserves • Workin
Slide 5: Not only Belgium is modelled. Data are coming from different sources
Not only Belgium is modelled. Data are coming from different sources Belgium and neighboring countries are modelled in detail. Flows between countries are determined by the market. Strong cooperation with other TSOs is needed to assess the shortage risk in other countries: • FR: gap in capacity 2015
Slide 6: Purely market exchanges. Maximum simultaneous import capacity used in BE is 3500 MW
Purely market exchanges. The maximum simultaneous import capacity used in BE is 3500 MW Market import capacities are used in the modelling. The Maximum simultaneous import capacity used in the simulations for Belgium (sum of FR + NL flow) is 3500 MW Max 3500 MW in winter. This value is given by Elia
Slide 7: Uncertainty modelling: 260 future states
Uncertainty modelling A big amount of future states are taken into account by using different profiles of renewable production, demand and outages of units. Renewable Demand Unit outages production thermosensitivity 260 future states 7
Slide 8: Yearly demand hypotheses are conservative and discussed with DG Energy
The hypothesis on the level of the yearly demand are conservative and discussed with the DG Energy The reference level of 2010 (90,4 TWh) is taken as level for the next winter. A growth of 0.31% is considered for the next winters.* No demand side response nor other initiatives on demand reduction ar
Slide 9: Some 'out of service' are announced for the coming winter
Some ‘out of service’ are announced for the coming winter © De Tijd, 9 januari 2015 9
Slide 10: Uncertainties on the availability of nuclear units
There are some uncertainties on the availability of nuclear units. Hypotheses: - D2 – available for the winter 15-16 (info DG Energy) - D1 – unavailable for 15-16 (not yet refueled by next winter) (info: DG Energy) - D4 – back online - D3/T2 – unavailable until 2017 (transparency data Electrabel) Se
Slide 11: Installed capacity of thermal and nuclear units 'in service' is decreasing
The installed capacity of thermal and nuclear units ‘in service’ is decreasing Evolution of installed capacity centralized production units (nuclear + fossil) 14000 12000 D3T2 Sensitivity FINAL CAPACITY FINAL D3T2 10000 CAPACITY D4 D3T2 D3T2 D3T2 8000 D1 STRAT FINAL D2 MW D1D2 D1D2 CAPACITY 6000 Not
Slide 12: Strategic reserves volume evaluation
Strategic reserves volume evaluation The strategic reserves volume is evaluated for Belgium in order to satisfy the following criteria (according to the law): Average LOLE < 3 hours LOLE P95 < 20 hours LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation): it is the expected total duration in hours of unserved energy ove
Slide 13: Agenda
Agenda 1. Modelling and hypotheses 2. Strategic reserves volume evaluation 13
Slide 14: Needed volume for winter 2015/2016
Needed volume for winter 2015/2016 Volume for 2015-2016 without maintenance in winter SR (MW) 3500MW 700 2700 import SR (MW) 2700MW 1500 3500 import Decision of the Minister Extra 2750MW for 1 year from which 300MW to 500MW for 2 years -> total of 3500MW Decision of the Minister 30/06/2015 Possible
Slide 15: Difference with winter 2014/2015
Difference with winter 2014/2015 2014/2015 2015/2016 No D3T2 Differences with 2014/2015: D1 stretch out * Limitation import capacity 8 on critical moments: -800MW 4 * No D1: -433MW * Closing: - 1650MW 16 Volume SR: 1200MW Total: -2900MW 28 Contracted SR: Volume SR: 3500MW 750MW SGR < 2900+1200=4100M
Slide 16: Strategic reserves needs in MW
Needed volume for next winters Needs of Strategic reserve capacity for the 3 next winters depending on the nuclear availability 4500 4200 4100 4000 3700 4000 3900 3400 Strategic reserves needs in MW 3500 3300 3500 3000 3200 3100 2500 2200 2100 2000 1700 2000 1900 1500 1400 1300 1500 1000 1200 1100 5
Slide 17: Many thanks for your attention!
Many thanks for your attention! ELIA SYSTEM OPERATOR Boulevard de l'Empereur 20 1000 Brussels +32 2 546 70 11 info@ elia.be www.elia.be An Elia Group company
Slide 18: What about next winters?
What about next winters? A exercise is currently held in order to assess the volume needed for the 3 next winters based on the latest information available in order to provide an advise to the minister before the 15th of November as stated in the law. The previous evaluation of strategic reserves vo