Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · NYSE:OSG
Octave Specialty — Ambac Financial Group — AIFA Conference 2025
28 slides from Octave Specialty's conference presentation, March 2025
Slide 1: AIFA Conference
March 2025 AIFA CONFERENCE Ambac Financial Group One World Trade Center, 41st Floor, New York, NY 10007 All Rights Reserved | 800-221-1854 | www.ambac.com
Slide 2: Disclaimers
Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements In this presentation, we have included statements that may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “estimate,” “project,” “plan,” “believe,”
Slide 3: Ambac P&C Platform
Ambac P&C Platform NYSE: AMBC ~$119M Net Hold Co. Assets Specialty Program Insurer Insurance Distribution 2024A 2024A $383M of GWP1 $163M Revenue $10M Net Income to Ambac ($7M) Net loss to Ambac $5M Adj. EBITDA2 to Ambac $14M of Adj. EBITDA2 to Ambac $133M of Book Value Capital-Light, High-Growth In
Slide 4: Leadership Team with Expertise to Execute Strategic Vision
Leadership Team with Expertise to Execute Strategic Vision Strong Culture Across the Business Claude LeBlanc 30+ Naveen Anand 30+ President, CEO & Director President Ambac Financial Group Cirrata Group Performance Focused • Named President and CEO of Ambac in 2017 • Former president of Players Healt
Slide 5: Fragmented MGA Sector Presents Compelling Opportunity
Fragmented MGA Sector Presents Compelling Opportunity U.S. MGA Market1 ’23 Premium Market Share by U.S. MGA Breakdown by Size of Nonaffiliated MGA1 Ownership Structure1 $82 bn 14% 44% 10 Largest MGAs 17% 2023 DPW YoY Growth Mgt owned Other MGAs MGAs Historical Trends1 56% Ranked 11-50 27% • The MGA
Slide 6: MGA Program Illustrative Model Economics
MGA Program Illustrative Model Economics MGA EBITDA Waterfall EBITDA 3% to 6% MGA Economic Profile EBITDA Variance Based on Various Asset Classes Written 1. Operating expenses include TPA fees and tax PAGE 5
Slide 7: Well Positioned to Compete in Program & MGA Sector
Well Positioned to Compete in Program & MGA Sector Private Equity Large, Publicly Large Private Roll-ups Traded Brokers Consolidators Strategic Operator Partnership Model MGA Program Pure-Play Shared Services Platform Aligned Capacity Strategic Position Supports Profile as an Attractive Destination
Slide 8: Cirrata Group
CIRRATA GROUP INSURANCE DISTRIBUTION PLATFORM
Slide 9: Cirrata Overview
Cirrata Overview 2028E1 2024A Aspirations $441 Million +$2 Billion • Portfolio of 19 specialty distribution and underwriting Revenue Premium businesses • Over $1.5B of 3rd Party capacity for 2025 $98 Million +$325 Million • Provide tools and investment needed to grow and Revenue Revenue compete • ~$
Slide 10: Growing & Diversified Portfolio
Growing & Diversified Portfolio 2024 Cirrata Premium of $493m Cirrata Revenue1 by Risk Type (in millions) 12% 13% +$325 $350 9% 7% 12% 28% $150-$175 $160 5% 13% $98 $52 Property Reinsurance $26 $31 A&H Professional Lines Marine & Energy Specialty Auto 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2028E Aspiration2
Slide 11: Cirrata's Operating MGAs & Partnerships
Cirrata’s Operating MGAs & Partnerships United States London / Bermuda Accident & Health Specialty Marine Property, Liability, NA Property Energy / Property Commercial Auto Motor USA Professional Liability Financial & Property, Liability Multiline P&C Accident & Health Professional Professional Liab
Slide 12: Cirrata has +$1.5 Billion of Third-Party Capacity for 2025
Cirrata has +$1.5 Billion of Third-Party Capacity1 for 2025 Duration of Capacity Providers Capacity Sources 50% 25% (re)insurers Top 25 Global Reinsurers Pension/Private Equity 0% Individuals/Names/Private Capital 5+ Years 4 Years 3 Years 1-2 Years Majority Third-Party Capacity, Long-Term, Scalable
Slide 13: Building a Technology Led Shared Services
Building a Technology Led Shared Services Today Future AI and AI Agents guide the Distribution Underwriter in risk selection Finance Augment and Policy Ops in servicing HR AI Risk Selection AI/ML deliver portfolio insights to management Capacity Mgmt from Data Lake 1. Deliver Operational Efficiencie
Slide 14: Ambac's Partnership Model
Ambac’s Partnership Model ALIGN CREATE INTERESTS VALUE Maintain Ownership Founders retain a material, Leverage Expertise minority equity stake. Experienced M&A team leads OPERATE seamless integration. Share Profits AUTONOMOUSLY Identify Opportunities Founders share in their Cross-platform synergies
Slide 15: Robust Acquisition Pipeline to Support Growth Globally
Robust Acquisition Pipeline to Support Growth Globally Pipeline Overview Management 2024 Team 65 targets evaluated Underwriting Capacity Track Record Relationships 23 targets diligenced Key M&A Target Attributes 10 prospects currently being tracked Breadth of Growth Distribution Expectations 6 prosp
Slide 16: De Novo Framework
De Novo Framework Disciplined execution for launch of de novo businesses (Target go-live 120-150 days from agreement to launch) Agreement Ongoing Team & Plan Capacity Operational Active Sourcing Letter of Intent LLC & EE Launch Monitoring & Due Diligence Placement launch plan Agreement Support Risk
Slide 17: Everspan Group
EVERSPAN GROUP SPECIALTY P&C PROGRAM INSURER
Slide 18: Everspan: Specialty P&C Program Insurer Overview
Everspan: Specialty P&C Program Insurer Overview 2023A 2024A • Established in 2021 $273M GWP1 $382 GWP1 • Expanding support of Cirrata MGAs & Programs • Capital light platform with fee focus and limited risk retention 106.5% 101.6% • +25 programs and MGA partners Combined Ratio Combined Ratio • Grow
Slide 19: Premium Written by Line Of Business
Premium Written by Line Of Business Gross Net $500 $100 $400 $80 Millions Millions $300 $60 $200 $40 $100 $20 $0 $0 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Commercial Auto Liability Commercial APD Commercial Auto Liability Commercial APD General Liability Excess Liability General Liability Excess Liability Pe
Slide 20: Diversification & Scale Improves Underwriting
Diversification & Scale Improves Underwriting 400% 350% 331.9% 300% 250% 160.8% 200% 147.8% 150% 124.3% 121.7% 112.7% 106.5% 109.4% 100.3% 98.4% 100.5% 96.5% 100% 50% 0% 1Q2022 2Q2022 3Q2022 4Q2022 1Q2023 2Q2023 3Q2023 4Q2023 1Q2024 2Q2024 3Q2024 4Q2024 Expense Ratio Net Loss Ratio Combined Ratio St
Slide 21: Conclusion
CONCLUSION Ambac
Slide 22: Consolidated Adj. EBITDA to Ambac
Consolidated Adj. EBITDA1 to Ambac Future $80M-$90M3 $18M 2028 Aspiration Implies a +40% EBITDA CAGR 1. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP measure on slide 24-25 2. Organic growth includes acquisition synergies and net of de novo launch costs PAGE 21 3. Represents management forecasts, which are subject to
Slide 23: 'Aspirational' Public Benchmarks – February 10th
‘Aspirational’ Public Benchmarks1 – February 10th TRADITIONAL TWFG BWIN Ryan Specialty Hagerty GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE BROKERS2 Market Cap ($m) $1,737 $4,969 $17,881 $3,486 $4,173 P/E – 2025E 93.3x 22.4x 45.69x 28.4x 58.6x 28.6x EV/Adj. EBITDA – 36.2x 18.2x 20.4x 20.3x 39.3x 16.7x 2025E EV/Revenue – 202
Slide 24: Financial Appendix
FINANCIAL APPENDIX Ambac
Slide 25: Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (2024)
Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (2024) PAGE 24
Slide 26: Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (2023)
Earnings Measures by Reporting Segment (2023) PAGE 25
Slide 27: Earnings Highlights (4Q24 & 2024)
Earnings Highlights(4Q24 & 2024) PAGE 26
Slide 28: About Ambac
About Ambac Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac” or “AFG”) is a financial services holding company headquartered in New York City. Ambac’s Contact core business is a growing specialty P&C distribution and underwriting platform. Ambac also has a legacy financial guaranty business in run off. Ambac’s