Traton Se · XETR:8TRA
Traton — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation
41 slides from Traton's earnings presentation, May 10, 2021
Slide 1: Press Conference Call 3M 2021 Interim Statement
PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO MUNICH - MAY 10, 2021
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP
Slide 3: Your Presenters Today
PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT – YOUR PRESENTERS TODAY Matthias Gründler Christian Schulz Julia Kroeber-Riel Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Head of Group Communications, Governmental Relations & Sustainability 3
Slide 4: Agenda
AGENDA 1. Environment 2. Core KPIs 3M 2021 3. Q&A Business Development 4. Deep Dive E-Mobility 5. Q&A E-Mobility 4
Slide 5: 3M 2021 Was a Strong Quarter for the TRATON Group
3M 2021 WAS A STRONG QUARTER FOR THE TRATON GROUP 3M 2021 Business recovery continued, despite a Incoming Orders rise Unit Sales up 31% still challenging 51% to 81,742 to 60,315 environment Net Cash Flow Adj. Operating Adj. Operating Profit Industrial Business Return on Sales more than tripled at €3
Slide 6: COVID-19 Pandemic Still with Relevant Impact
COVID-19 PANDEMIC STILL WITH RELEVANT IMPACT GLOBAL ECONOMY Recovering from severe impact POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT of COVID-19 pandemic European Green Deal PEOPLE PLANET PERFORMANCE BUSINESS CLIMATE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT European truck market continues to Ongoing COVID-19 pandemic leads to recover, bus m
Slide 7: Global Economy Is Recovering from Setback from the Pandemic
DEEP DIVE GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL ECONOMY IS RECOVERING FROM SETBACK FROM THE PANDEMIC Growth expected for 2021, but environment still fragile 6.0% 6.4% 5.4% 6.0% 4.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% -3.5% -4.9% -6.6% -8.0% -10.2% 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 World Euro Area US GDP forecasts
Slide 8: Business Climate Is Brightening, Market Very Strong in March 2021
DEEP DIVE BUSINESS CLIMATE BUSINESS CLIMATE IS BRIGHTENING, MARKET VERY STRONG IN MARCH 2021 Truck registrations (> 16t) in Europe improving1 60 40 20 2021 2021 2021 0 -20 -40 -60 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Monthly European truck registrations (k units) YoY change (in %) 1 ACEA new heavy commercial ve
Slide 9: Global CV Industry Is Transforming
DEEP DIVE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL CV INDUSTRY IS TRANSFORMING MARKET RAMP-UP OF ALTERNATIVE DRIVES NECESSARY EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL Purchase incentives for customers, Agreement on EU Climate Law investments in charging infrastructure of a net 55% CO2 cut by 2030 and EU CO2-based road charges neede
Slide 10: The Positive Trend Continued in 2021
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT THE POSITIVE TREND CONTINUED IN 2021 INCOMING ORDERS & UNIT SALES (k units) 90 80 82 K 70 60 60 K 50 40 30 20 10 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 10
Slide 11: Agenda
AGENDA 1. Environment 2. Core KPIs 3M 2021 3. Q&A Business Development 4. Deep Dive E-Mobility 5. Q&A E-Mobility 11
Slide 12: Snapshot TRATON Group Core KPIs 3M 2021
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT SNAPSHOT TRATON GROUP CORE KPIS 3M 2021 Trucks and buses (units) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 81,742 54,161 51% 60,315 45,990 31% INCOMING ORDERS UNIT SALES 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 57,222 41,960 36% 3,093 4,0
Slide 13: Deep Dive Group Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS Financial key performance indicators (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 6,544 5,679 15% 516 161 355 SALES REVENUE ADJ. OPERATING RESULT1 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 7.9 2.8 5.0 pp ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)2 1 3M 2021: Operatin
Slide 14: Deep Dive Group Core KPIs: Industrial Business
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS Industrial Business (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 6,438 5,564 16% 465 135 330 SALES REVENUE ADJ. OPERATING RESULT1 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 7.2 2.4 4.8 pp ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)2 1 3M 2021: Operating Result €104 mn;
Slide 15: Deep Dive Group Core KPIs: Capex, R&D, Cash Flow
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS Industrial Business (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 160 218 -27% 294 285 3% CAPEX1 PRIMARY R&D COSTS 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 397 -167 565 397 27 370 NET CASH FLOW NET LIQUIDITY 1 Capital expenditu
Slide 16: Deep Dive Group Core KPIs: Financial Services
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS Financial Services (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 205 216 -5% 51 26 25 SALES REVENUE OPERATING RESULT 16
Slide 17: Scania Vehicles & Services – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES – CORE KPIS Trucks and buses (units) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 36,944 20,671 79% 23,033 18,184 27% INCOMING ORDERS UNIT SALES 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 22,023 16,605 33% 1,010 1,579 -36% OF WHICH TRUCKS
Slide 18: Scania Vehicles & Services – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES – CORE KPIS Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3,420 2,982 15% 409 256 154 SALES REVENUE OPERATING RESULT 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 12.0 8.6 3.4 pp OPERATING ROS (in %) 18
Slide 19: MAN Truck & Bus – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT MAN TRUCK & BUS – CORE KPIS Trucks and buses (units) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 32,070 24,098 33% 23,363 18,166 29% INCOMING ORDERS UNIT SALES 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 22,590 17,060 32% 773 1,106 -30% OF WHICH TRUCKS1 OF WHICH BUS
Slide 20: MAN Truck & Bus – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT MAN TRUCK & BUS – CORE KPIS Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 2,645 2,267 17% 71 -78 149 SALES REVENUE ADJ. OPERATING RESULT 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 2.7 -3.4 6.1 pp ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %) 1 3M 2021: Operating
Slide 21: Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS – CORE KPIS Trucks and buses (units) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 12,750 9,517 34% 13,989 9,860 42% INCOMING ORDERS UNIT SALES 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 12,679 8,505 49% 1,310 1,355 -3% OF WHICH TRUCKS O
Slide 22: Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus – Core KPIs
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS – CORE KPIS Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million) 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 466 383 22% 33 12 21 SALES REVENUE OPERATING RESULT 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 7.0 3.1 3.8 pp OPERATING ROS (in %) 22
Slide 23: Positive Truck Market Outlook, Depending on COVID-19 Development
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT POSITIVE TRUCK MARKET OUTLOOK, DEPENDING ON COVID-19 DEVELOPMENT Truck market (˃ 6t, k units) 376 Market expectations2 273 341 EU27+31 300 2021e +10% to +25% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021e Market expectations2 144 129 180 AMERICA 141 SOUTH 2021e +10% to +40% 2009 2
Slide 24: Outlook 2021: Recovery After Strong Decline
DEEP DIVE COMPANY ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2021: RECOVERY AFTER STRONG DECLINE TRATON GROUP Core KPIs FY 2019 FY 2020 2021 Outlook1 FY 2019 FY 2020 2021 Outlook1 242.2 k 190.2 k Sharp €26.9 bn €22.6 bn Substantial increase increase + 4% -21% + 4% -16% UNIT SALES SALES REVENUE FY 2019 FY 2020 2021 Outlook
Slide 25: After Strong Headwinds in 2020 TRATON Is Ready for a Successful 2021
AFTER STRONG HEADWINDS IN 2020 TRATON IS READY FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2021 Going forward For 2021 Operating Net Cash Flow Return on Sales of Closing on Navistar Industrial Business between 5.0 and expected mid-2021 €500 – 700 mn 7.0% expected Start of introduction Squeeze-out of Budget Shift of the Common
Slide 26: Agenda
AGENDA 1. Environment 2. Core KPIs 3M 2021 3. Q&A Business Development 4. Deep Dive E-Mobility 5. Q&A E-Mobility 26
Slide 27: Agenda
AGENDA 1. Environment 2. Core KPIs 3M 2021 3. Q&A Business Development 4. Deep Dive E-Mobility 5. Q&A E-Mobility 27
Slide 28: Deep Dive BEV – Your Presenters Today
DEEP DIVE BEV – YOUR PRESENTERS TODAY Dr. Atif Askar Dr. Andreas Kammel Julia Kroeber-Riel Head of Business Development, Strategy and Business Development, Head of Group Communications, Strategy and M&A responsible for Alternative Drives Governmental Relations & Sustainability 28
Slide 29: Adoption of New Drivetrains Is Driven by Cost and the Regulatory Environment
ADOPTION OF NEW DRIVETRAINS IS DRIVEN BY COST AND THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT “Total operating economy” (TOE) augments “total cost of operation” (TCO) by other cost-relevant factors like payload effects, stand times… TRUCKS ARE CAPITAL GOODS – EXPECTED IMPACT OF ELECTRIFICATION PURCHASE DECISION VIA
Slide 30: The Prospects of Commercial BEV Vehicles Have Improved Markedly
THE PROSPECTS OF COMMERCIAL BEV VEHICLES HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY VIEW ON BEV IN LONG-HAULAGE, MID 2010s BATTERY COST DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME Battery pack cost, illustrative* [EUR/kWh] 1,000 Plus improvements in “A truck capable of going 1000km hauling 27t […] 900 • battery capacity per weight • battery
Slide 31: BEV Have a Markedly Higher System Efficiency Than FCEV
BEV HAVE A MARKEDLY HIGHER SYSTEM EFFICIENCY THAN FCEV Production Refueling Operation Electrical 100% energy distribution & inversion AC/DC mix of slow & fast charging DC-AC, engine & transmission 90% 90% 90% efficiency efficiency efficiency 75% energy Chemical remaining energy DC-AC, engine & trans
Slide 32: BEV Are Expected to Be More Cost-Efficient Than Either Diesel or FCEV
BEV ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE COST-EFFICIENT THAN EITHER DIESEL OR FCEV DELTA TOE: LONG-HAUL HEAVY DUTY – EUROPEAN AVERAGE, MID CASE*, INCL. REGULATORY EFFECTS full mineral oil tax full mineral oil tax Diesel 2023 BEV 2023 FCEV 2023 Diesel 2040 BEV 2040 FCEV 2040 Key takeaways: • Battery & fuel cell c
Slide 33: Nordics & Western Europe Likely to See Earliest BEV TOE Parity
NORDICS & WESTERN EUROPE LIKELY TO SEE EARLIEST BEV TOE PARITY DRIVEN BY FAVORABLE ENERGY COST & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT | TOLL EFFECTS SIGNIFICANT TOE PARITY BEV LONG-HAUL FOR MAJOR MARKETS INCLUDING TOLLS, CO2 FEES & SUBSIDIES Key regulatory factors by market Early € Tolls CO2 fees Subsidies Late 3
Slide 34: BEV Has a Strong Cost Advantage Over FCEV at Regular High Range
BEV HAS A STRONG COST ADVANTAGE OVER FCEV AT REGULAR HIGH RANGE COST-WISE, LONG-RANGE DRIVING IS THE REALM OF BEV, IF USED REGULARLY OR WITH FULLY DEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURE LONG-HAUL ANNUAL TOE BEV VS. FCEV – AVERAGE DAILY RANGE VS. DAILY VARIABILITY OF RANGE Key takeaways: Annual TOE long-haul BEV v
Slide 35: The BEV Market Share Is Sensitive to Cheap Prices for Green H2
THE BEV MARKET SHARE IS SENSITIVE TO CHEAP PRICES FOR GREEN H2 SYNERGY EFFECTS YIELD IMPROVING FCEV AND BEV CASES FOR ABUNDANT LOW-COST HYDROGEN BEV/FCEV/OTHER MARKET SHARE – NAÏVE VERSION MARKET SHARE INCL. BEV-FCEV SYNERGIES Big Oil & Big Oil & H2 industry H2 industry expectations expectations on
Slide 36: Most Long-Term Advantages Lie on the BEV Side
MOST LONG-TERM ADVANTAGES LIE ON THE BEV SIDE FCEV WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE … BUT MAJOR LONG-TERM TRENDS WITH BEV IN THE 2020s … TEND TO FAVOR BEV STRONGLY Cost degression on components Lightweight, cheap batteries Significant subsidies Autonomous Driving Emerging H2 economy Increasing grid stor
Slide 37: Applications Where FCEV Can Be a Complimentary Solution (Europe)
APPLICATIONS WHERE FCEV CAN BE A COMPLIMENTARY SOLUTION (EUROPE) Non-stop at high Inhomogeneous Severe payload Competitive consumption usage restrictions running costs Time-critical two- Irregular long-distance Applications beyond Local operation driver operations, requirements, e.g. due fea
Slide 38: Synthesis – Key Takeaways
SYNTHESIS – KEY TAKEAWAYS BEV will become This will happen Just fulfilling current competitive with Diesel earlier and faster EU emission regulations no matter the scenario than previously expected is not sufficient Infrastructure is by far OEMs will require FCEV as a BEV will be mainstream the most
Slide 39: Agenda
AGENDA 1. Environment 2. Core KPIs 3M 2021 3. Q&A Business Development 4. Deep Dive E-Mobility 5. Q&A E-Mobility 39
Slide 40: Contacts Group Communications
CONTACTS GROUP COMMUNICATIONS Julia Kroeber-Riel Sacha Klingner Sebastian Rausch Matthias Karpstein Head of Group Communications, Head of Corporate Communications Financial Media Relations Business Media Relations Governmental Relations & Sustainability julia.kroeber-riel@traton.com sacha.klingner@t
Slide 41: Press Conference Call 3M 2021 Interim Statement
PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO MUNICH - MAY 10, 2021