Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (November 2021)
80 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, November 2021
Slide 1: Presentation to Investors November 2021
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors November 2021
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Presentation Agenda
-3- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS OLEFINS INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS
Slide 4: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-4- -4- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder 8.12% and key business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in 29.27% * 48.03% adherence with strong corporate governan
Slide 5: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
5- --5- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Hexane Toluene Diversifying to a broad SOLVENTS Mixed-Xylene range of downstream products to enjoy higher Paraxylene The majority of Mixed-Xylene refined petroleum profit margins and
Slide 6: Key Milestones: 60 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
6- --6- Key Milestones: 60 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of business Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refine
Slide 7: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
7- Thai Oil Group Business Structure --7- 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil Treasury Center Thaioil (TOP) TOP SPP (TPX) (TLB) (TET) (TTC) Capacity : Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to 50.0% Enhance financial efficiency
Slide 8: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
8- --8- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 CCR-2 ULG95 85,000 CCR CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 180,00 KEROSENE 0 HVU-1 HVU-2 FCCU 10,40 HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3
Slide 9: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-9- - 9- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,244.5 kbd (1) Market shares for refined petroleum product (3) Fang (2.5 kbpd) Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 30% 27% market market Thai Oil (275 kbpd) shares shares PTT’s Principal Refiner BCP (120 kbpd) Esso
Slide 10: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
10- --10- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with 1. Close proximity with the key LAOS domestic markets and Indochina Ban
Slide 11: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude & Production -11- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum
Slide 12: Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand
-12- Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Jun’21 Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total (yoy) -8.0% +60.5% -4.4% -3.8% 150% 111% 113% 107% KBD 98% 101% 100% 98% 101% 6M'20 6M'21 93% 800 100% -5
Slide 13: Key Financial Highlights
-13- KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 14: Pandemic Recovery – The Worst Is Over
-14- Pandemic Recovery – The Worst Is Over 1 COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery Improving Petroleum Demand Accelerated Widespread Immunization Improving Gasoline Demand Vaccination rate Share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 (Nov 8, 2021) Index Global Mobility Index 110 At least 1st dose Fully vaccinat
Slide 15: Energy Crisis – A Tailwind
-15- Energy Crisis – A Tailwind 2 Energy Crisis Impact to Oil Prices & Refining Margin Shortages of Global Gas & Coal Crude Oil Prices Hit Multi-Year High $/bbl Dubai Price Dec’20 Oct’21 100 DB 49.8 81.5 +64% 80 COVID-19 Oil prices skyrocketed Price War Impact 60 amid global energy crisis Shortages
Slide 16: Recovery On Its Way
-16- Recovery On Its Way • More stock gain from rising crude oil prices • Higher gasoil & fuel oil sales on high potential gas-to-oil substitution • Improving domestic sales from reopening country to fully vaccinated visitors as well as resuming economic activities • Stronger GRM from improving prod
Slide 17: Q3 & 9M/21 Performance
-17- Q3 & 9M/21 Performance QoQ Dubai rose from $71.6/bbl to $72.6/bbl Dubai ($/bbl) (ending price) YoY Dubai rose from $41.5/bbl to $72.6/bbl 71.6 72.6 72.6 Crude • Oil demand recovery from improving COVID-19 situation due to increasing global vaccination rate and easing restriction in major econom
Slide 18: Q3 & 9M/21 Performance
-18- Q3 & 9M/21 Performance TOP Group Net Profit Unit :Million Baht (MB) Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 Net Profit Contributions *Excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items 2,123 MB 2,063 MB (10,559) MB 7,545 MB 7% 9% 22% 22% 12,354 Q2/21 71% Q3/21 69% Stock g/l 3,783 3,915 Net operating profit 3,519 1,312 1,2
Slide 19: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-19- -19- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Interest Expense (net) Operating Cost (excl. one-time non-operating item) 7.8 6.8 6.77.6 6.9 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.2 5.3 4.74.3 2.
Slide 20: Financial Performance
--20- 20- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB EBITDA (excl stk G/L) EBITDA (incl stk G/L) 389,344 36,925 362,179 32,67533,448 337,388 274,739 25,496 242,840 231,530 22,867 22,060 20,239 13,21413,833 8,272 9,706 78,120 79,960 7,003 6,784 73,449 5,344 3,616 3
Slide 21: Q3/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
-21- Q3/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 21 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 306,188 345,849 175,140 million THB 150,064 million THB 25,077 53,104 Trade Payable Cash & ST / Others (US$ 5,138 mill
Slide 22: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan
-22- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of October 2021 Estimated Budgeting Actual for Project 9M/21 Investment Plan 2021 - 2024 CFP project * 802 1,902 Total Ongoing CAPEX 37 201 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 6 48 Infrastructure Improv
Slide 23: Dividend Payment
-23- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3.00 3.75 3.08 2
Slide 24: Strategic Investment Plans
-24- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 25: Thaioil's 2021 Strategic Direction: Building on Our Strong Foundation
-25- -25- Thaioil’s 2021 Strategic Direction : Building on Our Strong Foundation Vision Empowering Human Life through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals To be a competitive Energy & Chemicals company that Strategic Objective delivers sustainable returns & better quality of life to all stakeholders Mea
Slide 26: 3-Pronged Strategy (3V)
-26- -26- 3-Pronged Strategy (3V) Value Maximization : Value Enhancement : Value Diversification Integrated Crude to Chemicals Integrated Value Chain Management “Know your customers & “Stable Earnings & New S-Curve” “Build on our strong foundation” knowledge-based” • Strengthen core through CFP proj
Slide 27: CFP Rationale & Timeline
-27- CFP Rationale & Timeline Project Rationale • Risk of losing competitiveness to others regional refineries as more new refineries with higher capacity and more advanced technologies are on stream. • Adjust product portfolio by producing high demand and clean product to serve customer needs and c
Slide 28: Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect
-28- Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect LPG Tops ISOM SRU Sulfur 5 HDT-3 Naphtha PX/BZ CCR-1/2 Platformate TPX HDT-4 Hy. Naph CDU-3 4 180 kbd Crude LPG LPG Kerosene Tops KMT-1/2 Lt.Naph 400 kbd Isomerate Gasoline New HDS-2/3 CDU-4 Diesel Jet/Kero 220 kbd HDS-4 Diesel 4 HMU-1/2&PSA-1/3 2 Fuel Oil HCU-1/
Slide 29: CFP Competitiveness
-29- CFP Competitiveness Without CFP With CFP CDU Capacity CDU Capacity 275,000 bbl per day 400,000 bbl per day Upgrading Ratio 28 % Upgrading Ratio 50% (upgrading capacity(1) over CDU capacity) (upgrading capacity(2) over CDU capacity) Power Plant 250 MW Remark : (1) including HCU 1/2, FCCU, TCU (2
Slide 30: CFP Value Proposition
-30- CFP Value Proposition Flexibility of crude intake Product Upgrading Light Distillate 25% (LPG, Light naphtha, Heavy naphtha, Light Crude Gasoline) 40% - 50% (API > 31) 23% 5% - 15% Medium Crude Middle Distillate (25 < API < 31) 62% (Jet , Gasoil) 100% 53% 40% - 50% Heavy Crude (API < 25) 17% Ot
Slide 31: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)
-31- Clan Fuel Project (CFP) Overall CFP Progress 9M/21 Progress • Continuing equipment and module arrival to Thailand • Massive progress of heavy lifting work for critical equipment and module installation 76% 63% • Completed main substation structure construction for energization by 2022 • Maximiz
Slide 32: Olefins Investment
32- --32- OLEFINS INVESTMENT
Slide 33: Olefins Investment
33- --33- Olefins Investment Transaction Summary Key Investment Highlight #1 15.38% stake in CAP The Largest & Dominant Indonesia Integrated Petrochemical CAP Strategic Fit A Strategic Producer in Indonesia A Premier Operator Market Investment US$ 1,183 mn • 1st Tranche US$ 913 mn 15.0% • 2nd Tranch
Slide 34: Achieving TOP's Strategic Objectives: Integrated Crude to Chemicals
34- --34- Achieving TOP’s Strategic Objectives: Integrated Crude to Chemicals TOP’s Strategic Direction Strategic Objectives Achieved A jumpstart into Olefins value chain Value Maximization Minimum investment in existing facilities & growth plan Further extend Hydro-Carbon value chain to Olefins Pet
Slide 35: CAP2 Expansion is a Transformative Project for CAP
35- --35- CAP2 Expansion is a Transformative Project for CAP CAP2 Project Overview CAP2 Will Double The Capacity of CAP Approx. USD 5 bn new plant to double CAP’s Petrochemical Unit ’000 tons Capacity Flexible Feedstock Configuration Total Capacity +91% From CAP2 8,090 Synergy with Existing Plant •
Slide 36: Details of Investment
36- --36- Details of Investment Use of Proceeds All primary proceeds to CAP will be used for the development and 100% construction of CAP2 Project TOP Investment Barito Pacific SCG Chemicals Free float Indonesia Group Condition Precedents 15.38% 44.58% to 46.29% 30.57% 7.76% to 9.47% All necessary
Slide 37: Key Partnership Arrangements
37- --37- Key Partnership Arrangements LPG, Naphtha Feedstock Commercial Products • PT. Tirta Surya Raya (TSR), Est. 2019 Polymer Products: • TOP’s solvent and chemical distributor PE, PP company in indonesia • TOP holds 67% in TSR through TOP Solvent Liquid Products: Thailand Benzene, Toluene, Xyle
Slide 38: Funding Plan for the Transaction
38- --38- Funding Plan for the Transaction Uses of Fund Sources of Fund Additional Facility • Strong Support from PTT 15.38% to support TOP long term competitiveness Bridging Loans Recapitalization stake in CAP • Shareholder loan • Extended Trade Credit (ETC) Bank Extended USD Equity Trade Credit 1.
Slide 39: Long-Term Recapitalization Plan and Short-term Liquidity Support
-39- Long-Term Recapitalization Plan and Short-term Liquidity Support Objectives Recapitalization Short-term Liquidity Support Return Optimal Capital Structure With Net D/E ~ 1.0x (1) Sale of up to Maintain Investment Grade 10.8% GPSC Shares(3) Credit Rating in Short-term 90-Day Extended and Credit
Slide 40: Expected Financial Benefits From the Transaction
40- --40- Expected Financial Benefits From the Transaction Share of Profit from CAP to Enhance TOP’s Performance Annual Net Income from 2016 to 2020 Quarterly Net Income from Unit: USD mm 2Q2020 to 1Q2021 Higher income stability from more diversified income source n.m. 320 ~ USD 40 – 50 mm of
Slide 41: Illustrative Timeline
41- --41- Illustrative Timeline May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 21 May 21 BoD approval for M&A SPV establishment & Definitive agreement negotiation 29 Jul 21 Acquisition Definitive agreement execution & SET disclosure Closing Target CAP FID for 2nd tra
Slide 42: 2022 Outlook
-42- 2022 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Petrochemical • Base Oil & Bitumen
Slide 43: Remain High Oil Prices During Winter due to Gas-to-Oil Switch
-43- -43- Remain High Oil Prices During Winter due to Gas-to-Oil Switch and Expected Softer Prices in 2022 from Higher Supply A Additional Gas-to-Oil Switching Demand Q4/21 to Q1/22 B Continue Growth in Economic Activities to Support Oil Demand $/MMBTU Additional Oil Oil Demand Growth vs Global Econ
Slide 44: Refinery Margin Returns to Pre-COVID in 2022
-44- -44- Refinery Margin Returns to Pre-COVID in 2022 Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) Avg. 2017: $7.1/BBL Avg. 2018: $5.9/BBL Avg. 2019: $3.7/BBL Avg. 2020: $0.4/BBL Avg. 2021E: $3.8/BBL 8.2 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.9 4.3 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.1 0.0 0.4 -0.9 Q1/17Q2/17Q3/17Q
Slide 45: Improving Gasoline Market and Recovering Jet Demand
-45- Improving Gasoline Market on Easing Lockdown in Asia and Lower China’s Exports Recovering Jet Demand on Less Restrictive Travelling Activity Increasing Global Mobility to Support Gasoline Demand Increasing Jet Demand on Lifting Travel Restrictions Increasing Asian Gasoline Demand after Lockdown
Slide 46: Improving Gasoil Market and Increasing Fuel Oil Demand
-46- Improving Gasoil Market on Recovering Economic Activities and Lower China’s Exports Increasing Fuel Oil Demand on Gas-to-Oil Switch Despite Higher Refinery Run Improving Gasoil Demand on Economic Recovery Potential Higher Fuel Oil Demand amid More Supply in 2022 A Increasing Asian Gasoil Demand
Slide 47: Recovering Domestic Demand on Economic Improvement
-47- Recovering Domestic Demand on Economic Improvement A Higher Gasoline Demand on Higher Consumer's Spending on Goods B Recovering Jet Demand on the Improvement of Tourist Sector Gasoline Demand vs. Non-Durable Goods Index Jet Demand vs. Tourist Number MML/Day Index MML/Day Pre-COVID Million Deman
Slide 48: More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid High Demand Growth
-48- -48- More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid High Demand Growth A Short MoreTerm SupportAddition Capacity by SM Run Rate amid and LowerDemand Recovered BZ Stock B Improved market in More Capacity 2021 due Addition to Less amid Capacity Current Addition High Demand AP/ME PX Capacity Additi
Slide 49: More Asian Olefins Capacity Addition in 2022 amid High Demand Level
-49- -49- More Asian Olefins Capacity Addition in 2022 amid High Demand Level A ShortCapacity More Term Support by SM Addition Run from Rate New andStart-up Plant Lower BZ Stock esp. China B Improved More market Capacity in 2021 Addition dueNew from to Less Capacity Plant Start-upAddition esp. China
Slide 50: Softer Base Oil Market on Weaker Demand Growth
-50- Softer Base Oil Market on Weaker Demand Growth and Potential of Higher Lube Feedstock Supply A Weaker Demand Growth amid Lower Capacity Addition in 2022 B Higher Feedstock Supply on Higher Refinery Run-Rate AP/ME Base Oil Effective Capacity Change in 2022 Percentage Asian Refinery Run-Rate and
Slide 51: 2022 Outlook Conclusion
-51- 2022 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2021) Crude Oil Short Term Additional Gas-to-Oil Switching During Winter and Economic Growth to Support Demand amid More Supply from OPEC+ Improving Refinery Margin on Easing COVID-19 Restrictions to Support Demand amid Refinery More Supply from Higher Refinery Run
Slide 52: Final Remarks
-52- -52- FINAL REMARKS
Slide 53: Near-Term Perspective
-53- -53- Near-Term Perspective Key Market Highlights • Synchronising recovery from economic re-opening across all regions boosts up demand to pre-COVID levels • Border re-opening is expected to refuel Jet demand • Current energy crisis further provides tail-wind to oil prices and product margins •
Slide 54: Longer-Term Perspective
-54- -54- Longer-Term Perspective Key Market Highlights Q4/21 to 1H/22 2H/22 to 2023 2024 to 2030 Promising Rebalancing to Strong Refining Recovery Pre-COVID Level Margins Period Coinciding with CFP’s completion • Prolonged weakness in GRM causing 2.3 MBD • Matching demand growth and new capacity •
Slide 55: Appendix
-55- APPENDIX • Performance analysis • Sustainability / ESG • Refinery capacity addition • Aromatics • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 56: Refinery: Stronger Mkt GRM On Improving Petroleum Demand
-56- Refinery: Stronger Mkt GRM On Improving Petroleum Demand Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD* FY 98% 92% 101% 97% DUBAI (DB) 50.9 30.6 42.9 44.6 60.0 66.9 71.7 66.2 81.6 42.2 % MB Intake
Slide 57: Aromatic: Softening Contribution Pressured by BZ Margin
-57- Aromatic: Softening Contribution Pressured by BZ Margin Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD* FY 89% 88% 71% 86% PX-ULG95 218 214 143 146 195 206 212 204 77 180 BZ-ULG95 126 90 25 115 182 313 287 260 118 89 Q
Slide 58: Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread
-58- Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2020 2021 2020 Q2/21 Q3/21 9M/20 9M/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD* FY 95% 88% 86% 92% 500SN-HSFO 369 372 340 474 783 1,037 896 905 673 389 Q3/21 Market BITUMEN-HSFO 2
Slide 59: Power Sector Performance…Stable Contribution to the Group
-59- Power Sector Performance…Stable Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 2,491 2,455 (4) Thaioil Power(TP) completely transferred whole business to (GWh) 1,261 be under TOP in Feb’21 FY/18 FY/19 FY/20 455 Q1/
Slide 60: Olefins Business: Softening Petrochemical Spreads
-60- Olefins Business : Softening Petrochemical Spreads Olefins Product Spreads Q3 & 9M/21 Performance Highlight HDPE CFR SEA - NaphJ ($/TON) CAP Performance TII Performance % Utilization Net Profit (million USD) 93% 93% 92% 90% 91% (0.7) (0.7) 89% 588 585 545 468 500 462 2019 2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21
Slide 61: Performance Breakdown
-61- -61- Performance Breakdown Petrochemical & (2) Others & (3) Consolidated Stock Gain/ Consolidated Petroleum Power Net Profit Net Profit Lube Base (1) New Business (incl. Stock G/(L) (Loss) (excl. Stock G/(L) Q2/21 (1,014) 2,302 709 260 2,123 3,783 (1,660) Q3/21 (1,312) 2,017 656 786 2,063 3,915
Slide 62: Q3 & 9M/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
-62- Q3 & 9M/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (Unit : million baht) Q2/21 Q3/21 QoQ+/(-) Q3/20 YoY+/(-) 9M/20 9M/21 YoY+/(-) Represented Represented (A) (C) Sales Revenue 78,120 79,960 1,840 57,117 22,843 182,932 231,530 48,598 Net Realized G/(L) on Financial Instrument (56) (479) (423) 144 (623) 80 (6
Slide 63: Q3 & 9M/21 Consolidated Cash Flow
-63- Q3 & 9M/21 Consolidated Cash Flow 9M/20 9M/21 9M/20 9M/21 (Unit: MB) Represent Represent Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) (2,568) 4,234 Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (71,846) (35,415) Net income (10,092) 7,912 Dividend income 1,489 1,110 Depreciation & NRV 7,300 5,490 ST investments (40,849) 19,
Slide 64: ESG/Sustainability Highlights
ESG/Sustainability -64- ESG/Sustainability Highlights Environmental Social Governance Toward Green Economy Toward Better Quality of Life Toward Transparency Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Communities Structure & Oversight • Reduced 4% direct GHG emission from BAU by • Thaioil CSR program supported medical
Slide 65: ESG/Sustainability Highlights 2020 – Q3/2021
ESG/Sustainability ESG/Sustainability Highlights 2020 – Q3/2021 Industry Leader Sustainability Award Leading Practices Platinum Award The Wall Street Journal Sustainability Listed in Thailand in oil & gas refining and (Gold Class) for Business Model-Value (WSJ) Awards of Honor Sustainability marketi
Slide 66: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term
CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME -66- Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Key Projects : New Addition Japan India Vietnam Thailand Philippines Ne
Slide 67: AP/ME PX Balance
Aromatics -67- AP/ME PX Balance AP/ME PX Supply Demand Balance Mil TON Operating Rate 80 100% 60 71.4 70.4 71.9 73.4 80% 67.4 59.7 61.6 52.9 55.0 60% 40 51.5 48.9 50.6 43.2 45.3 44.1 46.8 40.6 41.2 39.9 42.5 41.9 40% 37.8 34.5 36.6 30.6 29.9 33.3 29.8 31.2 33.1 20 20% 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2
Slide 68: AP/ME BZ Balance
Aromatics -68- AP/ME BZ Balance AP/ME BZ Supply Demand Balance Mil TON Operating Rate 60 90% 50 52.9 53.4 50.1 52.2 52.4 80% 40 45.6 47.1 40.2 42.4 41.2 42.7 37.2 37.7 39.0 38.1 39.8 30 32.8 34.5 36.8 33.2 32.6 35.1 36.7 70% 30.6 32.2 27.4 28.7 20 23.3 24.8 26.5 60% 10 0 50% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Slide 69: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -69- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 70 15 60 10 50 5 40 0 30 20 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT
Slide 70: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -70- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg
Slide 71: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -71- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 20 Source : IE Singapore 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021
Slide 72: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -72- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-r
Slide 73: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -73- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 20
Slide 74: China's Refined Product Exports
Inventories -74- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2
Slide 75: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -75- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2021 2019 2018 2020 • In 8M’21, LPG demand increased by 9.8% YoY mainly following the increase in industrial and petrochemical sectors. LPG 20 demand in the industry and petrochemical secto
Slide 76: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -76- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 9M’21, Gasoline demand was decreased by 8.9% YoY to an 2021 2020 2019 2018 average of 29.7 MML/day while Gasohol demand decreased 36 33.9 by 8.7
Slide 77: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -77- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 9M’21, Jet consumption decreased by 44.7% YoY. Due to 24 Covid-19 pandemic situation, the demand continually decreased since May’21. The strict control on domestic
Slide 78: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 9M’21, Gasoil demand decreased by 5% YoY. The demand was 72 69.3 70.5 impacted by third and forth wave of COVID-19 pandemic situation. It 68 was r
Slide 79: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2021 2020 2019 2018 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 9M’21, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 14.1 YoY, as the demand 8 in the transportation sector, which accounted for 58% of total 5.9 5.6 Fuel Oil demand
Slide 80: Thank You
--80- 80- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
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