Orlen Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
Orlen Spolka Akcyjna — Grupa LOTOS — FY2016 Earnings Presentation
32 slides from Orlen Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, 2017
Slide 1: Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 1
Slide 2: Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Key highlights ….…………………………….. 3 External environment …………………......... 7 Upstream …………………………………….. 10 Downstream …………………………….……..17 Consolidated financial results …….……….. 23 Appendix ……………………………………… 28 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 2
Slide 3: Key highlights
Key highlights Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Slide 4: Summary of Strategy 2017 – 2022 published 15th December 2016
Key highlights Summary of Strategy 2017 – 2022 published 15th December 2016 Average annual EBITDA LIFO doubled in 2019 − 2022 Targeted net debt/EBITDA LIFO below 1.5x CAPEX of 9.4bn over 6 years 2P reserves of more than 60 mboe and hydrocarbon production between 30 − 50 kboe/d 550 petrol stations LT
Slide 5: Key highlights 4Q 2016
Key highlights 4Q 2016 LIFO EBITDA (1) Downstream - crude oil throughput and utilisation ratio m PLN k tons +76% 97% 103% 103% 859 641 downstream 2 716 2 714 2 555 487 636 upstream 525 422 117 221 72 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 Quarterly operating cash flow Upstream – daily hydro
Slide 6: Key highlights full year 2016
Key highlights Full year 2016 LIFO EBITDA (1) Downstream - crude oil throughput and utilisation ratio m PLN k tons +20% 2 589 91% 97% 99% 2 156 downstream 10 213 10 387 1 391 1 901 upstream 9 544 1 781 875 505 344 688 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Annual operating cash flow Upstream – daily hydrocar
Slide 7: External environment
External environment Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Slide 8: FX rate, GDP growth, domestic fuel market
External environment FX rate, GDP growth, domestic fuel market FX USD/PLN rate (1) Diesel consumption (3) m m3 4.06 4.7 4.6 3.96 3.89 3.87 3.89 4.0 3.7 3.7 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 Polish GDP growth (2) Gasoline consumption (3) m m3 4.6% 1.4 1.5
Slide 9: Crude oil, natural gas and product crack spreads
External environment Crude oil, natural gas and product crack spreads Crude oil and nat gas prices Key product crack spreads USD/t 158 49 132 131 132 46 46 127 44 88 89 34 72 68 31 32 63 24 25 23 -118 -108 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 -122 -147 -147 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016
Slide 10: Upstream
Upstream Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Slide 11: Producing fields – 2016 operational parameters
Upstream Producing fields – 2016 operational parametres B3 B8 Sleipner Heimdal Lithuania field B3 B8 Sleipner Heimdal AB Geonafta Baltic Sea Baltic Sea North Sea North Sea Lithuania 2016 production 2 599 boe/d 2 902 boe/d 15 726 boe/d 4 323 boe/d 1 099 boe/d Δ vs 2015 - 455 boe/d + 2 193 boe/d +15 6
Slide 12: Overall production figures
Upstream Overall production figures Quarterly production Full year total production boe/d m boe +108% +124% 26 919 9.8 0.4 22 515 2.0 10 703 9 994 12 912 4.4 3.9 0.5 0.5 7.3 7 939 16 216 1.4 1.4 12 521 2.0 2.5 4 973 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 2014 2015 2016 oil gas Norway Poland Lithuania Financial res
Slide 13: Total recoverable reserves throughout last 12 months
Upstream Total recoverable reserves throughout last 12 months 2P reserves changes m boe 2016 production 72.7 66.8 8.1 6.5 Lithuania 7.1 7.3 7.5 2.0 0.4 38.6 Poland 40.6 27.6 Norway 19.1 (1) (2) 2015 eop Norway Poland Lithuania Norway Utgard 2016 eop reclassification (1) mainly due to planned infill
Slide 14: Quarterly upstream EBITDA evolution
Upstream Quarterly EBITDA evolution 230.9 m PLN 220.0 10.9 117.0 103.4 13.6 71.8 136.3 -64.5 (1) (1) (1) EBITDA One offs Clean EBITDA One offs Clean EBITDA One offs Clean 4Q 2015 EBITDA 3Q 2015 EBITDA 4Q 2016 EBITDA 4Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2016 (1) balance of assets impairments and other revaluations Fin
Slide 15: Full year upstream EBITDA decomposition
Upstream Full year upstream EBITDA decomposition 2015 2016 m PLN +100% 688 600 88 344 582 154 191 250 18 -59 (1) (1) EBIT 2015 Depreciation EBITDA 2015 One offs Clean EBIT 2016 Depreciation EBITDA 2016 One offs Clean EBITDA 2015 EBITDA 2016 (1) balance of assets impairments and other revaluations Fi
Slide 16: Projects to be implemented – schedule and economics
Upstream Projects to be implemented – schedule and economics field 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAPEX reserves production target m PLN (1) m boe (2) k boe/d (3) platform full production reconstruction launch B8 250 29.5 5.0 first oil Utgard 250 8.1 4.0 development first oil B4/B6 development 880 17
Slide 17: Downstream
Downstream Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 17
Slide 18: Model refining margin evolution and FX USD/PLN
Downstream Model refining margin evolution (USD/bbl) and FX USD/PLN 8.60 8.20 8.00 8.00 6.70 (1) 8.24 (2) (1) (1) (1) 6.21 6.51 6.49 6.01 5.58 4.77 4.76 5.18 LOTOS FX USD/PLN 3.96 4.06 3.89 3.87 3.89 PKN Orlen (3) 3.47 ERMI 4Q 2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 (1) model refining margin = 14.14% gasol
Slide 19: Volume of sales of key refining products
Downstream Volume of sales of key refining products thousand tons +10% 2 505 2 551 2 328 2 289 391 436 400 2 050 378 352 1 587 1 506 1 398 1 367 1 261 gasoline 609 (1) 531 437 545 527 middle distillates heavy products (2) 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 (1) middle distillates including : die
Slide 20: Quarterly downstream EBITDA evolution
Downstream Quarterly downstream EBITDA evolution 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 809 -86 636 568 525 -88 490 421 -17 -25 Retail Retail Retail 62 41 16 6 EBITDA 3Q 16 LIFO effect One offs Clean LIFO EBITDA LIFO effect One offs Clean LIFO EBITDA 3Q 16 4Q 16 EBITDA 4Q 16 -75 EBITDA LIFO effect One offs Clean L
Slide 21: Full year downstream EBITDA decomposition
Downstream Full year downstream EBITDA decomposition 2015 2016 2 322 m PLN 487 -498 1 901 1 782 1 835 77 7% 279 586 917 466 451 Retail Retail 112 156 EBIT 2015 Depreciation EBITDA One offs LIFO effect Clean LIFO EBIT 2016 Depreciation EBITDA One offs LIFO effect Clean LIFO 2015 EBITDA 2016 EBITDA 20
Slide 22: Downstream key projects. Schedule and economics
Downstream Downstream Key projects. Schedule and economics project 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 working plans and specifications commercial operation EFRA ca. PLN 2 300m Delayed coking unit (DCU) construction with auxiliary infrastructure working plans and specifications commercial operation HRU ca
Slide 23: Consolidated financial results
Consolidated financial results Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016
Slide 24: Decomposition of 4Q 2016 vs 4Q 2015 consolidated results
Consolidate financial results Decomposition of 4Q 2016 vs 4Q 2015 consolidated financial results 4Q 2015 4Q 2016 859 m PLN -86 308 77% -98 551 487 312 174 735 625 -319 6 EBIT 4Q LIFO effect One offs Clean Depreciation Clean LIFO EBIT 4Q LIFO effect One offs Clean Depreciation Clean LIFO 2015 LIFO EB
Slide 25: Decomposition of full year consolidated financial results
Consolidate financial results Decomposition of full year consolidated financial results 2015 2016 2 589 2 156 20% m PLN 1 068 77 715 -410 1 441 1 521 739 1 855 279 423 EBIT 2015 LIFO One offs Clean Depreciation Clean EBIT 2016 LIFO One offs Clean Depreciation Clean effect 2015 LIFO EBIT LIFO effect
Slide 26: Operating cash flows vs CAPEX
Consolidate financial results Operating cash flows vs CAPEX Quarterly view Full year 2016 m PLN 2 654 Operating cash flows 1 176 631 1 286 527 out of 351 which B8 212 (3) 319 355 289 308 85 100 77 83 935 out of EFRA 673 225 212 225 270 which 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 2016 CAPEX upstream CAPEX
Slide 27: Debt
Consolidate financial results Debt Net debt Gearing ratio (1) Net debt / clean LIFO EBITDA (2) bn PLN 5.7 73.9% 3.8x 5.3 4.8 64.0% 55.9% 2.6x 4.18 1.8x 3.90 3.51 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 net debt eop FX USD/PLN eop rate o Net debt figures include: interest bearing loans and borro
Slide 28: Appendix
+ + + App. 1. 2017 − 2018 Key performance indicators ………………. 29 App. 2. 2019 − 2022 Key performance indicators ...................... 30 + + App. 3. Production figure for key fields – Norway and Poland …. 31 Appendix Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016 28
Slide 29: Strategy 2017–2022. 2017–2018 Key performance indicators
Appendix 1. Strategy 2017 – 2022. 2017 − 2018 Key performance indicators Safety LTIF (1) < 3 Operational and financial metrics UPSTREAM REFINING RETAIL 2P reserves (2) 500+ petrol stations; Operational metrics ca. 60 mboe 10.5m tonnes standardisation Production ca. 22 kboe/d (3) EBITDA LIFO bn PLN (
Slide 30: Strategy 2017–2022. 2019–2022 Key performance indicators
Appendix 2. Strategy 2017 – 2022. 2019 − 2022 Key performance indicators Safety LTIF (1) < 3 Operational and financial metrics UPSTREAM REFINING RETAIL 2P reserves (2) Operational metrics more than 60 mboe 10.5m tonnes 550 petrol stations Production 30 − 50 kboe/d (3) EBITDA LIFO bn PLN (4) 1.6 -1.8
Slide 31: Production figure for key fields – Norway and Poland
Appendix 3. Production figure for key fields – Norway and Poland (1) Sleipner B3 boe/day +5,529% -21% 16 492 2 888 13 354 2 519 4 124 2 269 3 315 2 647 2 309 12 368 2 079 10 039 293 210 83 241 210 190 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 Heimdal B8 -27% +4% 5713 1434 2 814 2 931 2 933 417
Slide 32: Grupa LOTOS S.A. Investor Relations
Grupa LOTOS S.A. Investor Relations tel. +48 58 308 73 93 fax +48 58 346 22 35 e-mail ir@grupalotos.pl @GrupaLOTOS Financial results 2016 and 4Q 2016