Muhlenkamp Fund · NASDAQ:MUHLX

Muhlenkamp Fund — Muhlenkamp & Company — Investor Presentation (August 2017)

21 slides from Muhlenkamp Fund's investor presentation, Aug 22, 2017

  1. Slide 1: Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 22, 2017

    Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 22, 2017 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management © 2017 All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Welcome

    Welcome • All participants are in a listen-only mode. • We will conduct a question-and-response session after the presentation. • This webcast is being recorded. Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

  3. Slide 3: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Consumer Spending Slow Slow 2. Business Investment Slow Slow 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good overall but showing Student & Auto loans stretched Signs of weakness 4. Velocity of Money Declining Should Stabilize 5. Inflation Lo

  4. Slide 4: U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %)

    U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %) 1998-2018 6 5 Estimated 4 3 2 Percent 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Bloomberg; Estimated data OECD

  5. Slide 5: U.S. Employment Population Ratio

    U.S. Employment Population Ratio Total in Labor Force (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan2007-Jul2017 (Monthly) 64 63 62 61 Percent 60 59 58 The employment ratio (also referred to as the 57 employment rate) represents persons in employment as a percentage of the working age. population. 56 55 Jan-07 Jul-07 Ja

  6. Slide 6: U.S. Household Median Income

    Consumer U.S. Household Median Income Real Chained 2015 Dollars 1970-2015 (Yearly) $59,000 $57,000 $55,000 $53,000 $51,000 $49,000 $47,000 $45,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Year N

  7. Slide 7: Monthly Retail Sales per Capita

    Consumer Monthly Retail Sales per Capita Retail Trade and Food Services: U.S. Total — Seasonally Adjusted Sales 2007-Jul2017 1.5 1.4 1.3 $ Thousands 1.2 1.1 1 Total Sales 0.9 Total Sales Ex. Auto 0.8 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 D

  8. Slide 8: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

    Business NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 2007-Mar2017 (Monthly) Recessions 110 105 100 Index Value 95 90 85 80 75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business NFIB; Data Normalized 1986=100

  9. Slide 9: Wilshire 5000 Year-End Membership Counts

    Wilshire 5000 Year-End Membership Counts 1971-2014 Total Year

  10. Slide 10: Capacity Utilization: Total Industry

    Business Capacity Utilization: Total Industry 1967-Jun2017 (Monthly) Recessions 95 90 85 Percent (%) 80 75 70 65 60 Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Date Source: Bloomberg

  11. Slide 11: Commercial and Industrial Loans by Commercial Banks

    Credit Commercial and Industrial Loans by Commercial Banks United States 2007-Jul2017 (Monthly) 2,500 Seasonally Adjusted 2,000 1,500 $ Billion 1,000 500 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Year Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  12. Slide 12: 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type

    Credit Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type 2003-Jun2017 (Quarterly) 14 14 Credit Card Student Loan 12 12 10 10 8 8 Percent Percent Mortgage 6 Auto Loan 6 4 4 HE Revolving 2 2 0 0 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-03

  13. Slide 13: Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply

    Velocity Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply 1959-Jun2017 (Quarterly) 2.3 2.2 Velocity of Money = Ratio of monetary aggregate M2 to Nominal GDP 2.1 2 Turnover Rate 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Year Source:

  14. Slide 14: Inflation: U.S. CPI Urban Consumers

    Percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-97 Inflation Jan-98 Jan-99 Source: Bloomberg Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 YoY % Date Jan-08 1997-Jul2017 Non Seasonally Adjusted Jan-09 Jan-10 U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

  15. Slide 15: Interest Rates

    Interest Rates 2007-Aug2017 6 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate 5 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: Bloomberg

  16. Slide 16: Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

    Fed Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet 2007-Aug2017 5.0 QE1 begins QE2 begins QE3 begins 4.5 4.0 3.5 Dollars (Trillion) 3.0 Direct Holdings Emergency facilities 2.5 Securities held outright 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1/3/2007 6/3/2007 11/3/2007 4/3/2008 9/3/2008 2/3/2009 7/3/2009 12/3/2009 5/3/2

  17. Slide 17: Taxes and Regulation: Changing the rules

    Taxes and Regulation Changing the rules: which rules, how much change? Political Promises Progress so far • Repeal Obamacare • Died in Senate • Roll back regulations • House committee approved roll back of much of Dodd- • Tax Cuts Frank. House has killed – Business some other regulations. – Personal

  18. Slide 18: Muhlenkamp & Company 40th Anniversary

    Muhlenkamp & Company 40th Anniversary We are pleased, proud, and grateful that we have been able to serve our clients and the community for the last forty years. Ron will speak about: • Lessons learned; • Changes over the years; and • M&C going forward.

  19. Slide 19: U.S. Total Pension Fund Assets

    U.S. Total Pension Fund Assets 2000-2015 Population - Millions 16 14 12 Dollars-Trillion 10 8 330 6 282 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: OECD

  20. Slide 20: Questions and Responses

    Questions and Responses Click on the orange arrow in the upper right-hand corner of your screen to open the control panel where you may submit questions. For some devices, look for the question mark at the top or bottom of your screen. We will contact you if we did not have time to respond to your q

  21. Slide 21: Intelligent Investment Management

    Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

Muhlenkamp & Company — Investor Presentation (August 2017) on 6ix