Tryg A/s · OMXCOP:TRYG
Tryg A/s — Berenberg European Conference (December 2011)
16 slides from Tryg A/s's conference presentation, Dec 1, 2011
Slide 1: Berenberg European Conference
Berenberg European Conference CFO Tor Magne Lønnum 1 December 2011
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financ
Slide 3: Tryg – at a glance
Tryg – at a glance • The history of Tryg goes back to the 18th century. • The current Tryg was formed in 2002 by sale of Nordea’s non-life activities – with a Sweden continuing strategic Market position #5 partnership Market share 3.9% CR 2010 107.8 • Only non-life insurance in the Nordic area • Lis
Slide 4: Highlights Q3 2011
Highlights Q3 2011 Quarterly combined ratio • Technical result improved from DKK 74m to 110 DKK 491m despite heavy cloudburst but 105 99.2 helped by low level of large/medium claims. 100 91.5 95 • Combined ratio of 91.5 vs 99.2 in Q3 2010. 90 85 • Net investment result of DKK -205m 80 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Slide 5: Group
5 Q 1 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Q 1 4,000 4,300 4,600 4,900 5,200 08 Q 2 Q 08 08 2 Q 3 Q 08 08 3 Q Group 4 08 Q 08 4 Q 08 1 Q 09 1 Q 09 2 Q 09 2 Gross premium, DKKm Q 09 3 Q 09 3 Q Q 09 4 4 09 Q 09 Claims ratio (excl. winter 2010) 1 Q 10 1 10 Q Q 2 2 10 10 Q Q 3 3 10 10 Q Q 4 4 10 10 Q Q 1 1 11 11 Q Q 2
Slide 6: Underlying claims ratio Group
Underlying claims ratio Group 90 85 80.8 80 75 72.9 70 65 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 • Claims ratio is adjusted for items that fluctuate and distort quarterly results • weather claims, incl. extraordinary winter in Q1 and Q4 as reported
Slide 7: Large and weather claims development
Large and weather claims development Large claims, gross DKKm Weather claims, gross DKKm 1,000 1,400 466 597 537 491 813 524 459 1,284 800 1,300 Q3 600 1,200 Q3 400 Q3 1,100 Q2 Q2 200 1,000 Q1 Q1 0 900 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 2010 2011 800 Expected full year level based on history 700 6
Slide 8: Status on Q3 cloudbursts
Status on Q3 cloudbursts Facts: • 22,500 claims reported in Q3 of which 19,200 related to 2 July. • ~ 50% of claims are settled - especially Private. • Gross claims 2 July expected to be DKK 1.1bn. • Net claims DKK 100m + reinstatement premium of DKK 90m. Initiatives: • Requirement to introduce clai
Slide 9: Expenses
Expenses Number of employees • Expense ratio unchanged 16.3 in Q3 2011 • Continued focus on cost reduction through: 3,659 3,696 3,680 3,657 3,668 3,662 3,667 • Optimising distribution 618 612 622 611 611 640 673 • Paperless processes • Internal recruitment Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 D
Slide 10: Segment performance in Q3 2011
Segment performance in Q3 2011 Private Nordic - CR Commercial Nordic - CR Corporate Nordic - CR 100 110 110 95 90 100 80 106.9 107.2 106.1 92.6 91.5 80 88.0 90 87.5 87.0 96.3 65 70 80 50 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 • 9.3% premium growth in local currency •
Slide 11: Sweden and Finland
11 Q Q 0 200 400 600 800 1 1 60 70 80 90 100 08 08 Q Q 2 2 08 08 Q Q 3 3 Claims ratio 08 08 Q Q 4 4 08 08 Q Q 1 1 09 09 Q Q 2 2 09 09 Gross premium, DKKm Q Q 3 3 09 09 Q Q 4 4 09 09 Q Q 1 1 10 10 Q Q 2 2 10 10 Q Q 3 3 10 10 Q Q 4 4 10 10 Q Q 1 1 11 Sweden and Finland Q Q 11 2 2 11 Q Q 11 3 3 11 11 Q
Slide 12: Investment result Q3
Investment result Q3 Assets Assets Return Q3 2011 Gross investment return (DKKm) Bonds 997 DKK Equities -260 32.2 mia. 32.8bn DKK Real Estate 54 Total 791 Match Mismatch DKK 123m DKK ~ 0.4% 9.4bn Free investment Result DKK -237m Return -2.1% (≈ -8.4% p.a.) 12
Slide 13: Provisions and run-off
Provisions and run-off Run-off net, DKKm Insurance provision, DKKm 1,200 7,884 6,819 283 561 792 800 683 824 538 613 6,208 5,183 5,173 5,403 800 5,100 Q3 24,883 26,462 400 Q3 21,261 20,410 21,104 19,715 22,470 Q2 Q2 Q1 Q1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q3 2
Slide 14: Capitalisation
Capitalisation D KKm 12,000 11,000 10% 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 08 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 11 11 10 11 ut ut ut yo yo yo 20 20 20 20 20 20 1 2 3 1 2 3 Q Q Q Q Q Q pa pa pa 1 2 3 3 1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q re re re fo fo fo be be be 08 09 10 20 20 20 C apital requirement Buffer (5%) Surplus capital 14
Slide 15: Outlook
Outlook Mid-term ROE after tax 40% • Mid-term target is return on equity of 20% Mid-term target after tax. 30% 20% • This implies a combined ratio in the level of 10% 90% including potential run-off and at 0% current interest rate level. 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 12 13 14 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Slide 16: Questions?
Questions? 16