Slide 1: 2025 Global Carbon Credit Market: Year in Review
2025 Global Carbon Credit Market: Year in Review January 14, 2026 Webinar © 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Slide 2: Introduction
Introduction → All attendees are automatically muted throughout the session → Questions – please type your questions in the Q&A window at the bottom of your screen → Please take advantage of the available additional resources → Screen recordings and/or AI transcribers are not permitted during this w
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1 Introduction 2 Supply, Demand & Investments 3 Prices 4 Integrity 5 Policy 6 What to expect in 2026 and beyond 7 Q&A Info rmation Classification : GENERAL 3
Slide 4: The climate imperative is undiminished
The climate imperative is undiminished Economic losses from natural catastrophes Sea-levels continue to rise… continue to climb… Global mean sea-level rise (cm) Economic losses – insured / uninsured (USD billion) 350 318 300 292 250 242 137 114 uninsured 200 99 150 insured 100 178 181 143 ~30cm 50 1
Slide 5: Deforestation continues in spite of deforestation pledges
Deforestation continues in spite of deforestation pledges Forests cover ~30 % of Earth’s land surface and hold ~80 % of terrestrial species Tropical forest cover loss (million hectares) 8 • Indonesia -> Gov’t proposed 20m hectares 7 of deforestation for crops (an area x2 that of S. Korea) 6 5 • US -
Slide 6: In spite of lacklustre COP 30, climate action continues
In spite of lacklustre COP 30, climate action continues… Two third of investment in clean energy / Global investment in clean energy & fossil fuels (trillion electricity systems Global new car sales (millions) USD, 2024) 3.5 3.3 82 83 3.2 81 80 80 3.0 76 77 76 75 3.0 71 2.7 2.7 69 68 67 68 66 2.5 2.
Slide 7: Climate themed funds in energy transition and decarbonization are growing
Climate themed funds in energy transition and decarbonization are growing Public and private climate themed funds now have over USD 750bn under management Publicly traded climate funds (assets under management Private climate funds (cumulative capital raised) (USD Billion) (USD billion) 1,560 625 fu
Slide 8: Corporate spend on carbon credits is 0.5% of climate project finance
Corporate spend on carbon credits is 0.5% of corporate expenditure on climate related project finance Climate project-finance flows (USD) Commercial financial institutions $417 bn (32%) Energy $723 bn (55.3%) Corporations $312 bn (24%) Mitigation $1.2 trillion (95%) $1.9 trillion State-owned financi
Slide 9: MSCI Carbon Markets in 2025
MSCI Carbon Markets in 2025 Carbon credit finder: ✓ 30,000 carbon projects, and 1 million carbon credit transactions from over 20 registries ✓ Full eligibility for each project and credit ✓ Live bids and offers, and > 50,000 modelled prices from over 50 market sources Corporate buyer finder: ✓ Detai
Slide 10: Supply, demand and investments
Supply, demand and investments 10
Slide 11: Capital commitments increasing
Capital commitments increasing Publicly disclosed capital committed by deal type (USD Billion) Publicly disclosed capital committed by project type (USD Billion) n.b. Hashed bars indicate estimated values* 18 18 Eng. CDR Investment 15.9 15.9 16 16 Nature-based Offtake Tech-based 13.6 13.6 Mixed 13.6
Slide 12: Supply of carbon credits continued to tighten
Supply of carbon credits continued to tighten Lower credit supply in 2025 Annual issuances by project type (MtCO2e) 450 Carbon Engineering Non-CO2 Gases 13% Fuel Switch Energy Efficiency 399 400 Renewable Energy REDD+ Nature Restoration Jurisdictional REDD+ 364 343 350 vs. 2024 317 300 276 257 250 …
Slide 13: Credit demand matches previous all-time high
Credit demand matches previous all-time high Annual demand by project type (MtCO2e) Stable credit demand in 2025 250 Crypto-related Jurisdictional REDD+ 3% Nature Restoration REDD+ Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency 202 (184) 202 197 (191) 194 196 200 Fuel Switch Non-CO2 Gases Carbon Engineering vs.
Slide 14: Surplus growth slowed as high-quality supply stayed tight
Surplus growth slowed as high-quality supply stayed tight Annual cumulative surplus by project type (MtCO2e) Annual rate of surplus change (%) MSCI 1,200 1,142 Ratings 50% Carbon Engineering 45% Non-CO2 Gases 1,067 Fuel Switch 1,000 Energy Efficiency 946 Renewable Energy 40% REDD+ Year-on-year decli
Slide 15: Retirements becoming less concentrated
Retirements becoming less concentrated Largest credit retirees (Mt) 2024 2025 Share of top 10 retirees 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 2025 20% 3 4 5 2024 27% 6 7 8 2023 29% 9 10 Top sectors Fossil Fuels 42% Renewable Energy Nature Restoration REDD+ Non-CO2 Gases Energy Efficiency Carbon Engineering Fuel Switch
Slide 16: Increasing credit use for compliance purposes
Increasing credit use for compliance purposes Credit use of disclosed retirees – Voluntary and Compliance Credit use of disclosed retirees - Compliance A third of credit retirements in 2025 were for compliance purposes 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 33% 70% 70% 16% vs. 2024 60% 60% 50% 50% Increase large
Slide 17: Demand shifting away from US
Demand shifting away from US Annual retirements by retiree region (%) North America: annual retirements by retiree country (%) Reduced share from North 100% American companies 100% 3% 3% 7% 7% 90% 17% North 23% 90% 13% Canada America 17% 27% 31% 36% 80% 80% 70% 11% 24% 70% 19% 13% Latin America & vs
Slide 18: Market share of high integrity credits increasing
Market share of high integrity credits increasing (1) Retirements Value A-AAA Share of Value of Retirements by MSCI Carbon Project Rating (%) 36% 100% 10% 15% 29% 28% AAA 7% 80% 18% 35% vs. 2024 17% AA A 60% 23% 19% 20% 21% Retirements Value B-CCC BBB 30% 40% 19% 20% 23% 22% BB 24% 13% B 15% 9% 20%
Slide 19: Carbon credit prices
Carbon credit prices MScI&
Slide 20: Integrity key driver of price in 2025
Integrity key driver of price in 2025 MSCI Carbon Credit Price Indexes (USD/tCO 2e) $10 $9 $8 $7 Higher Rated $6 $5 $4 $3 Whole Market $2 $1 Lower Rated $0 MSCI Global Carbon Credit Price Index MSCI Global Rated BBB and Above Carbon Credit Price Index Source: MSCI Carbon Markets Data as of 07-Jan-20
Slide 21: Ratings show pronounced price impact for REDD+
Ratings show pronounced price impact for REDD+ → Average premium for each rating band $2 for REDD+ in 2025, from $1 in 2024 → Even greater premium of up to $6 for some REDD+ subtypes Source: MSCI Carbon Markets Data as of 07-Jan-2026. Info rmation Classification : GENERAL 21
Slide 22: REDD+ prices recover through 2025
REDD+ prices recover through 2025 MSCI Carbon Credit Price Indexes (USD/tCO 2e) $20 $18 $16 $14 Nature Restoration $12 $10 REDD+ $8 $6 $4 Energy Efficiency $2 Non-CO2 Gases Renewable Energy $0 MSCI Global Nature Restoration Carbon Credit Price Index MSCI Global REDD+ Carbon Credit Price Index Source
Slide 23: Forward Offtake Market
Forward Offtake Market Public Offtake Deals by Announcement Date, Mt committed →75 million tonnes committed to in publicly 50 announced offtakes in 2025, up from 65 45 million in 2024 40 35 →Nature based volumes dominate at ~48 million tonnes in 2025 30 25 →Average price $50 in 1H 2025 20 15 →MSCI p
Slide 24: 4. Integrity
4. Integrity MScI&
Slide 25: Projects meeting CCP eligibility demonstrate higher integrity
Projects meeting CCP eligibility demonstrate higher integrity Distribution of Projects by Rating for Different Eligibilities Key 2025 Developments • CCP supply skews high- # Projects ~4,400 ~1,600 ~1,350 ~100 integrity in 2025 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% • Coverage expanded: 28 10% 13% methodologies, 125 project
Slide 26: IFM Ratings align with CCP Approvals
MSCI Carbon Markets IFM Ratings align with CCP Approvals Key 2025 Developments # Projects 6 19 36 27 8 • MSCI Carbon Markets have 100% rated 100 IFM projects 90% across ACR, CAR and Verra with an additional 30 to be 80% added this month. 70% • Enhancement of IFM 60% methodology including: 50% ➢ Reve
Slide 27: 2025 has seen fewer project-specific controversies
2025 has seen fewer project-specific controversies Verra rejects four Chinese Number of New Controversy Cases in MSCI Database by Year (#) voluntary carbon projects, launches review into 45 more 200 amid “serious allegations” 160 Approval of 52 oil blocks in the DRC’s peatlands threatening REDD+ eff
Slide 28: 5. Policy
5. Policy 28
Slide 29: 2025 key policy developments
2025 key policy developments Investors & financial institutions Strong Tailwinds Guidance on transition plans Tailwinds supports investor engagement Crosswinds Changing role of net-zero Headwinds alliances Strong Headwinds Overall Info rmation Classification : GENERAL 29 Source: MSCI Carbon Markets
Slide 30: 2025 key policy developments
2025 key policy developments Investors & Companies financial institutions SBTi includes framework for Strong credit use in draft of net-zero Tailwinds standard Guidance on transition plans ISO and GHG Protocol to align Tailwinds supports investor standards engagement VCMI launches Scope 3 Crosswinds
Slide 31: 2025 key policy developments
2025 key policy developments Investors & Companies Supply side financial institutions SBTi includes framework for Strong 37 methodologies CCP credit use in draft of net-zero Tailwinds approved by ICVCM standard Guidance on transition plans ISO and GHG Protocol to align Tailwinds supports investor CO
Slide 32: 2025 key policy developments
2025 key policy developments Investors & Companies Supply side Public policy financial institutions SBTi includes framework for Governments providing Strong 37 methodologies CCP credit use in draft of net-zero greater clarity on carbon Tailwinds approved by ICVCM standard credit use – FR, SG, UK Gui
Slide 33: The importance of country-specific analysis in understanding opportunities and risks
The importance of country-specific analysis in understanding opportunities and risks Trends from our Country Investment Attractiveness Scores 2025 Credits Issued (MtCO2e) by Attractiveness Score 90 → MSCI Country Carbon Market Scores built on four pillars 80 1. Regulatory environment 2. Operating en
Slide 34: Article 6 activity is rising, but regulatory complexity is slowing scale
Article 6 activity is rising, but regulatory complexity is slowing scale Countries interest and readiness to Issuances with a Corresponding participate in Article 6 is increasing Adjustment coming to market ..but there are continuing delays MSCI Carbon Markets Article 6 Country Readiness Cumulative
Slide 35: 6. What to expect for 2026 and beyond
6. What to expect for 2026 and beyond 35
Slide 36: Market outlook 2026 and beyond
Market outlook 2026 and beyond 1. Continued investor interest in climate change and transition risks - corporates will need to reconcile SBTI targets 2. Growing relevance of compliance markets: national ETSs, Carbon Taxes and CORSIA 3. Higher demand and prices for high quality credits – but still so
Slide 37: Growing challenge for firms with SBTi targets
Growing challenge for firms with SBTI targets Share of listed companies with climate Change in emissions covered by SBTi Change in emissions covered by SBTi targets by target type (c.8k companies) near-term commitments per year (Gt) net-zero commitments per year (Gt) 5.0 7.0 100 % 2025 total 4.0 202
Slide 38: Thank you
Thank you Please follow us on LinkedIn (MSCI Carbon Markets) or sign up to our newsletter to hear about our future webinars. Contact → carbonmarkets@msci.com © 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Slide 39: Investor-Grade Data and Insights
MSCI Carbon Markets Investor-Grade Data and Insights Interactive Weekly / Research notes Ppt / Excel Direct data Access platform monthly reports and webinars downloads feeds (/APIs) to analysts Carbon credit projects Policy & guidance & transactions Carbon credit prices • Analysis and consensus trac
Slide 40: Contact
Contact Americas Asia Pacific Europe, Middle East & Africa The process for submitting a formal index United States China South Africa complaint can be found on the index +1 888 588 4567 (toll free) +86 21 61326611 + 27 21 673 0103 page of MSCI’s website at: Canada Hong Kong Germany https://www.msci.
Slide 41: About Us: ESG
About Us: ESG About MSCI ESG Research Products and Services MSCI ESG Research products and services are provided by MSCI ESG Research LLC, and are designed to provide in-depth research, ratings and analysis of environmental, social and governance-related business practices to companies worldwide. ES
Slide 42: Notice and Disclaimer
Notice and Disclaimer This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts (collec tively, the be different than the MSCI index performance. “Information”) is the property of MSCI Inc. or its subsidiaries (collectively, “MSCI”), or MSC