Transalta Corporation · TSX:TA

Transalta — Investor Presentation (May 2025)

41 slides from Transalta's investor presentation, May 2025

  1. Slide 1: Investor Presentation

    transalta Investor Presentation *' a 4 May 2025

  2. Slide 2: Forward-looking statements and non-IFRS measures

    Forward-looking statements and non-IFRS measures This presentation includes "forward-looking information," within the meaning of include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in power prices; changes in supply and “Additional IFRS Measures and Non-IFRS Measures” and “Key Non-IFRS Financial applicabl

  3. Slide 3: TransAlta at a glance

    TransAlta at a glance ~9,000 MW Diversified portfolio 88 generating facilities in Canada, United States and Australia $8.0 billion 114 years Enterprise value1 Generation experience Strong balance sheet Foundation of our and capital discipline focused strategy ~$500 million 2025 expected free cash fl

  4. Slide 4: Well diversified portfolio of high-quality assets

    Hydro Gas Wind and solar Energy Development marketing pipeline and capabilities Well diversified portfolio of high-quality assets Stable contracted base with Alberta merchant upside 4

  5. Slide 5: Fleet Overview

    Fleet Overview Wind, Solar and Storage 36 Facilities Hydro 25 Facilities Natural Gas 26 Facilities Coal 1 Facility Technology: Wind Solar Hydro Battery Natural Gas Coal 5

  6. Slide 6: Strategic position strengthened

    Free Cash Flow1 Adjusted EBITDA1 Strategic Free Cash Flow1 increased by position +59% +35% $210 Million strengthened Adjusted EBITDA1 since 2020 increased by $330 Million 2020 2024 2020 2024 Contractedness2 increased by Contractedness2 Emissions reductions3 Renewable capacity2 (MW) (Millions tonnes

  7. Slide 7: Strategic priorities

    Strategic 1 Optimize Alberta portfolio priorities 2 Execute Growth Plan Realize the value of legacy generating 3 facilities Maintain financial strength and capital 4 discipline 5 Define next generation of power solutions 6 Lead in ESG and market policy development Keephills, Alberta 7

  8. Slide 8: Advancing Growth Plan

    Advancing Strategic investment in Growth Plan Best-in-class team targeting development in Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Exclusive option to purchase advanced-stage clean energy projects at attractive risk adjusted returns enhanced by TransAlta’s energy marketing and growth teams Eq

  9. Slide 9: Legacy Generation Site Opportunities

    Legacy Generation Advances Contracted Expected attractive returns and customer-centred Site Opportunities cash flow approach build multiples Centralia Location Centralia, WA Detailed Potential Fuel Gas, Wind, Solar, Battery, New Technology commercial negotiations Potential Contract Type Long-term Si

  10. Slide 10: Pursuing multiple options for Centralia redevelopment

    Pursuing multiple options for Centralia redevelopment Operating unit Transmission interconnection Natural gas Next generation technology potential site Skookumchuck Reservoir Water rights Temperate climate and existing cooling ponds Skilled workforce Centralia, availability Washington Renewables pot

  11. Slide 11: TransAlta offers attractive locations for data centres

    TransAlta offers attractive locations for data centres Wabamum Under 25ms latency1 Lake Area from Calgary Reliable Toronto Keephills operating units / and 41.83ms Highvale speed to market Sundance Transmission interconnection Wabamun Lake Seattle Calgary 20.56ms Boston 73.86ms Natural gas Sundance M

  12. Slide 12: Maintain Financial Discipline

    Maintain Financial Successfully closed $450 Discipline million green note offering in Q1 2025 2.8 times over Size $450 million subscribed Term 7 years Repaid $400 million variable rate term loan with proceeds Coupon 5.625% Maintains TransAlta’s BB+ stable - S&P financial strength Rating BBB (low) st

  13. Slide 13: Our competitive advantage

    Our competitive advantage Owner / operational excellence Optimization and trading excellence Strong balance sheet Customer Local presence Focus Full life cycle capabilities and risk control Strong customer relationships Demonstrated ESG results 13

  14. Slide 14: Sustainability targets

    Sustainability targets Environmental goals Social goals Governance goals Net zero by 2045 Support for indigenous 50% female Board communities representation by 2030 Reduce GHG emissions by 1 75% by 2026 Reclaim mined land in Alberta 40% company-wide female and Washington State employment by 2030 Red

  15. Slide 15: 2025 performance year-to-date

    2025 performance Horseshoe, Alberta year-to-date 15

  16. Slide 16: Q1 2025 delivered strong operational performance

    Q1 2025 delivered Transaction At A Glance strong operational performance Results and financial position Business highlights Strategic priorities Adjusted EBITDA1 of $270 million Fleetwide availability of 94.9% Advancing growth through strategic investment in Nova Clean Energy FCF1 of $139 million or

  17. Slide 17: TransAlta segmented results

    TransAlta segmented results Lower spot pricing in Alberta Three months ended March 31, 2025 ($millions) Adjusted EBITDA1 Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Strong Hydro 47 87 average Wind and Solar 102 89 availability Gas 104 125 of 94.9% across fleet Energy Transition 37 27 Energy Marketing 21 39 Corporate (41) (25)

  18. Slide 18: Alberta merchant electricity portfolio

    Alberta merchant electricity portfolio Alberta merchant portfolio First quarter 2025 prices 178% continues to 80 Hedged power price premium to spot price generate $71 premiums significantly 60 higher than 175% average market Price ($/MWh) Hydro merchant premium pricing to spot price 1 40 $40 140% 20

  19. Slide 19: Alberta Hydro provides sustained long-term value

    Alberta Hydro provides sustained long-term value Alberta hydro fleet volumes (GWh) 1,000 900 800 Volume (GWh) +14% 700 600 500 Ancillary volume 400 increase from 300 2023 to 2024 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2

  20. Slide 20: 2025 outlook

    2025 outlook Windrise, Alberta 20

  21. Slide 21: 2025 guidance

    2025 guidance ($ millions) 2025 Outlook Adjusted EBITDA1 1,150 to 1,250 FCF1 450 to 550 Reflects FCF/share ($/share)1 $1.51 to $1.85 strong Energy Marketing Gross Margin 110 to 130 hedged position and Sustaining Capital 145 to 165 contracted cash flows Market 2025 Outlook Alberta Spot 40 to 60 ($/MW

  22. Slide 22: Alberta hedging provides portfolio stability

    Alberta hedging provides portfolio stability 80 7,000 6,000 Hedged power Price ($/MWh) Volume (GWh) 60 5,000 prices above 4,000 forward curve 40 3,000 2,000 20 1,000 0 - Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Full Year 2026 1 Volume Forward price Average hedged power price $1 per MWh change in spot Q2 2025 Q3 2025

  23. Slide 23: 2025 priorities

    2025 priorities Safety, people and culture Financial and operational Improve leading and lagging safety performance Deliver adjusted EBITDA1 of $1.15 - $1.25 billion Deliver FCF1 of $450 - $550 million Delivering Advance leadership and talent development operational excellence Maintain strong balanc

  24. Slide 24: Alberta market evolution

    Alberta market evolution Big Horn, Alberta 24

  25. Slide 25: Alberta business

    Alberta business Maximize shareholder returns through active management of our diversified merchant portfolio Provide dynamic, cost-effective and contracted solutions to meet customer power demand Identify and evaluate market and technological sources for long-term growth Technology1: Wind Hydro Bat

  26. Slide 26: Hedging and optimization increases our advantage

    Hedging and optimization increases our advantage Ancillary services leader 114-year extensive operating expertise Trusted C&I Peaking supplier capacity Exceptional in-house forecasting and analytical capabilities Optimization expertise Integrated asset optimization and operations to ensure portfolio

  27. Slide 27: Alberta regulatory change timeline

    Alberta regulatory change timeline Restructured “Interim Period” Energy Market REM design and approval REM Implemented as Renewables (“REM”) industry Real Market Trial pause consultation process implemented and design Aug 2023 Feb 2024 Jul 1, 2024 2025 2026 Nov 30, 2027 2028 Renewables Interim “Shad

  28. Slide 28: Merchant electricity market evolution

    Merchant electricity market evolution Higher average Lower average pricing pricing 2020 2025 2030 Moderate volatility Higher volatility Baseload generation Peaking generation and fleet diversity Lower carbon footprint Higher carbon footprint Optimization and hedging Hedging and optimization Grid rel

  29. Slide 29: Major supply shift continues

    Major supply shift continues Alberta installed capacity and peak load (MW)1 35,000 +185% Expected supply 30,000 growth in renewables 25,000 20,000 +140% 15,000 10,000 Expected supply growth in combined 5,000 cycle gas 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Cogeneration Renewables Storag

  30. Slide 30: Prices expected to soften mid-decade with supply

    Prices expected to soften mid-decade with supply Annual average power price forecast ($ per MWh)1 162 134 102 63 47 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Actual Forecast Prices to rebound later in the decade 30 1 Sourced from TransAlta internal data as of November 2023. Presented at

  31. Slide 31: Intraday volatility of renewable supply

    Intraday volatility of renewable supply Increasing renewable Renewable generation - maximum hourly change (MW) 1 generation Increasing renewable generation will result in larger hour-to-hour changes in outputwill – challenging the reliability of the electricity system. result in larger hour-to-hour

  32. Slide 32: Wind penetration increases volatility in price

    Wind penetration increases volatility in price September 2023 wind generation and power price volatility1 900 High Low High 3,000 Supply surplus ($0/MWh) wind wind wind 800 2,500 Wind generation (MWh) Power price ($ per MWh) 700 600 2,000 500 1,500 400 300 1,000 200 500 100 0 0 Wind Generation Power

  33. Slide 33: Thermal gas required when renewable resources are low

    Thermal gas required when renewable resources are low Thermal gas capacity is Estimated thermal gas generation required (MW)1 required to meet Alberta demand and 9,640 7,815 reliability Province loses 5.5 GW of capacity on low Shortfall renewable- -6,735 -358 0 resource 1,825 -454 -268 days1 AIES Ge

  34. Slide 34: Enhancing Value with Energy Marketing

    Enhancing Value with Energy Marketing Le Nordias, Quebec 34

  35. Slide 35: Aligning Growth and Energy Marketing

    Aligning Growth and Energy Marketing Asset valuation Proprietary trading Aligned global team committed Pipeline management Market Asset optimization to accelerating interpretation value delivery of Specialty products Customer high-quality relationships portfolio through Growth Energy Marketing cross

  36. Slide 36: Energy marketing capabilities

    Energy marketing capabilities Electricity Natural Gas Emissions NWPP, CAISO, SPP, SWPP, IESO, Markets ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, MISO, ERCOT Canada and US Canada and US Execution for TransAlta and third-party assets Diverse product Origination and knowledge base structured products provides key Real-time t

  37. Slide 37: Energy Marketing has delivered $700 million of adjusted EBITDA since 2020

    Increasing volatility Energy Marketing has delivered $700 across North American markets creates million of adjusted EBITDA1 since 2020 opportunities Adjusted EBITDA1 contribution ($ million) Positioned to deliver value in all 183 market conditions 166 131 109 103 Tightly managed risk profile $140 mi

  38. Slide 38: Financial strategy and plan

    Financial strategy and plan Brazeau, Alberta 38

  39. Slide 39: Prudent capital management

    Prudent capital management Credit ratings Dividend S&P BB+ ~10% CAGR2 $0.26 Moody’s Ba1 $0.24 $0.22 DBRS BBB (low) $0.20 $0.18 $0.17 Adjusted Net 3.0 - 4.0x Debt/Adjusted EBITDA1 target 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 39 1 Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure, see the forward-loo

  40. Slide 40: Capital allocation maximizes shareholder value

    In 2025 Capital allocation maximizes shareholder value Maintain strong credit metrics Dividend increased by 8%; payout ratio equates to 15% of expected 2025 FCF1 Maintain balance sheet Realize value from Fund the dividend legacy thermal sites Free Cash Flow1 Execute on growth Invest in strategic M&A

  41. Slide 41: Safe and reliable operator

    Safe and reliable operator Diversified and increasingly contracted portfolio Clean electricity leader High potential legacy energy campuses Positioned for growth Financial strength and flexibility Antrim, New Hampshire 41

TransAlta — Investor Presentation (May 2025) on 6ix