Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited GBP Red.Shs · LSE:TRIG
Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited GBP Red.Shs — The Renewables Infrastructure Group — FY2024 Earnings Presentation
59 slides from Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited GBP Red.Shs's earnings presentation, Feb 25, 2025
Slide 1: The Renewables Infrastructure Group Annual Results 2024
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Annual Results 2024 Renewables Infrastructure for a clean and secure future 25 February 2025 www.trig-ltd.com
Slide 2: Important Information
Important Information For Investment Professionals (as defined under FSMA 2000). Individuals without professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this information By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agr
Slide 3: Investment Proposition & 2024 Highlights
Investment Proposition & 2024 Highlights www.trig-ltd.com 3
Slide 4: Robust fundamentals and market opportunity
Robust fundamentals and market opportunity Diversification Resilient Intrinsic at scale performance value Power markets, 6 four technologies 115.9p NAV per share >10% Disposals premia Dividend per share Progressive 2.7GW Portfolio capacity 7.55p target 10% dividend yield1 Direct revenue Annualised t
Slide 5: Meaningful strategic progress and compelling prospects
Meaningful strategic progress and compelling prospects Responsible Robust Resilient, capital allocation balance sheet progressive income 24 months £210m >£0.5bn 10%+ Past Disposals at an average Dividend growth since Total debt repaid2 >10% premium to NAV December 20221 £150m >£300m 80% 2025 Increas
Slide 6: Strategic capital allocation
Strategic capital allocation 2024 cash flows1,2 2024 allocation Project-level debt repaid Operational £206m cash flow3 £390m Reduce gearing (57%) Gross cash cover 2.1x Net RCF Net dividend reduction cover £134m 1.0x Dividends £184m Shareholder returns (35%) Share buybacks £21m Disposals signed in 20
Slide 7: Enhancing shareholder returns
Enhancing shareholder returns 2024 Uses 2025 expected uses1 Reduction in short-term borrowings to c.£100m Reduce gearing 57% 45% to 50% Reduce gearing c.£190m annual project-level debt repayment Dividend increased by 1.1% to 7.55p/share Shareholder returns 35% 40% to 45% Shareholder returns Share bu
Slide 8: A diversified portfolio across geographies and technologies
A diversified portfolio across geographies and technologies Diversified UK & 39% UK 2.7GW European portfolio Rest of Europe 61% Renewable electricity 6TWh generated in 2024 6% 14% Onshore Wind Offshore Wind 48% Solar PV Near-term development 32% Flexible Capacity 1 1GW pipeline Countries where TRIG
Slide 9: Financial Highlights & Valuation
Financial Highlights & Valuation www.trig-ltd.com 9
Slide 10: Financial highlights
Financial highlights Year ended 31 December 2024 115.9p £3,116m -4.7p NAV per share Portfolio Value IFRS earnings per share (2023: 127.7p) (2023: £3,509m) (2023: 0.2p) 2.1x / 1.0x 7.55p £493m Gross cash cover / FY25 Dividend per share target Pro-forma portfolio EBITDA Net dividend cover1 (2024: 7.47
Slide 11: Portfolio valuation bridge
Portfolio valuation bridge Valuation movement in the year to 31 December 2024 3,509 48 £3,500m 3,226 65 3,116 Portfolio Valuation (104) £3,000m (228) (66) (50) (34) (24) £2,500m (£m) £2,000m £1,500m £1,000m 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. £500m £m 31-Dec-23 New Disposal Cash Rebased Movement in Change in Movement
Slide 12: Near-term decline in power price forecasts mitigated by fixed revenues
Near-term decline in power price forecasts mitigated by fixed revenues TRIG blended cannibalised power price curve1,2,3 Average assumed cannibalised power prices4 90 Average Average Average Average 80 Region 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2050 2051-2060 70 Real 2023 GBP/MWh GB (Real £/MWh) 62 55 51 48 60
Slide 13: Discount rates and inflation assumptions
Discount rates and inflation assumptions Discount rates Inflation ▪ Weighted average discount rate 8.6% (50bps increase), a result of: ▪ UK RPI was in line with Dec 23 forecasts, UK CPI slightly lower ▪ Change in portfolio mix (acquisition of Fig Power; impact of disposals) ▪ European inflation sign
Slide 14: Disposal premia supports the portfolio valuation
Disposal premia supports the portfolio valuation Other portfolio return items impacting NAV per share by c.7p ▪ +0.7p per share impact from accretive disposals Positive movements (p/share) ▪ Sales of four windfarms: Little Raith, Forss, Pallas and partial stake in Gode 1 Disposal activity +0.7 Dispo
Slide 15: Active management has helped reduce the impact of externalities
Active management has helped reduce the impact of externalities 140p 120p + 0.9 (6.1) (6.6) 100p Pence per Ordinary Share Actuals & changes Macro 80p to budgets - Power prices Lower generation Development and 127.7 - + and external grid construction activity 115.9 60p 31 Dec 2023 NAV - Inflation Imp
Slide 16: Creating capacity through disposals and financings to drive shareholder returns
Creating capacity through disposals and financings to drive shareholder returns 2024 actual movements 2025 projected movements3 £364m Retained cash, disposal proceeds, refinances £230m Construction investment1 & share buybacks Retained cash Construction RCF at c.£100m and disposal investment & Fig P
Slide 17: Systematic debt repayment creates material gearing headroom
Systematic debt repayment creates material gearing headroom Portfolio gearing profile Capacity to move RCF £2,500m 50% drawings into the portfolio £2,000m Annual debt repayment c.20% future gearing capacity 40% 37% of c. £190m assumes some portfolio gearing revenue fixes £1,500m 30% Gearing Debt £1,
Slide 18: Robust underlying portfolio performance
Robust underlying portfolio performance Key underlying portfolio metrics 2023 2024 2025 outlook Pro-forma portfolio revenue1 (£m) 793 671 Improving with higher power prices Fixed revenues % 65% 75% 80% Cash and debt metrics Pro-forma portfolio EBITDA2 (£m) 610 493 Operational cashflows3 (£m) 502 390
Slide 19: Operational Excellence
Operational Excellence www.trig-ltd.com 19
Slide 20: Underlying generation 2% below budget, reduced to 5% by grid
Underlying generation 2% below budget, reduced to 5% by grid 2024 Net 2024 load Electricity Performance Technology Region capacity factor production vs. Budget ▲ Underlying generation 2% below budget, (MW) (GWh)1 consistent with broadly on-budget wind and solar irradiation UK 548 29% 1,403 -5% ▲ Thi
Slide 21: Balanced split of annual weather resource above and below the 30-year average
Balanced split of annual weather resource above and below the 30-year average 20% Wind & solar irradiation, by region, compared to the long-term mean1 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 France Onshore Wind Germany Offshore Wind Scandinavia On
Slide 22: RES's best-in-class operational expertise
RES’s best-in-class operational expertise Procurement Minimise downtime Increase Repowering yield (MWh/Yr) ▲ RES’ deep experience of the whole project lifecycle provides unparalleled capabilities Add In-house Development Increase revenue ▲ A global team of specialists across expertise revenue Stream
Slide 23: Successful trials of new innovations provide a clear route to value enhancement
Successful trials of new innovations provide a clear route to value enhancement MWs Expected Enhancement 2020 2025 2030 yield enhancement1 Blade hardware Trial at 2 sites 8 sites 178 1-5% TuneUp – blade software Trial & roll out at 1 site 10 sites 220 ~1% Wind Wake steering Inc. Altahullion trial Of
Slide 24: RES has a strong record of delivering value
RES has a strong record of delivering value 2020-24 Value Delivered >£70m Near-term Value Progressing >£70m Increase ▲ Securing grid, lease & ▲ Repowering & pipeline Development £12m project life planning extensions ▲ Securing grid, lease & planning extensions Reduce ▲ Strategic spares management op
Slide 25: Proprietary pipeline provides significant growth opportunity
Proprietary pipeline provides significant growth opportunity Spennymoor Connection date brought forward, 100MW expected operations 2026 Cuxac 25MW Turbine supplier selected Greenfield Brownfield Ryton Construction progressing, 78MW expected operations H2 2025 1GW Exclusive development opportunities
Slide 26: Concluding Remarks
Concluding Remarks www.trig-ltd.com 26
Slide 27: Strategic pathway to enhance shareholder returns
Strategic pathway to enhance shareholder returns Large and diversified portfolio across mature technologies Balanced Resilient inflation-linked cashflows with systematic debt repayment portfolio Prudent capital allocation prioritising balance sheet strength Responsible Clear path to increasi
Slide 28: Appendices
Appendices www.trig-ltd.com 28
Slide 29: Summary 2024 Financial Statements
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Summary 2024 Financial Statements Year to Year to As at As at Year to Year to Income 31 December 31 December Balance 31 December 31 December 31 December 31 December 2024 2023 Cash Flow Statement 2024 2023 Statement 2024 2023 Sheet £m £m £m £m £m £m Cash from inves
Slide 30: Valuation – key assumptions
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Valuation – key assumptions As at 31 December 2024 As at 31 December 2023 Discount Rate Portfolio average 8.6% 8.1% Power Prices Weighted by market Based on third party forecasts Based on third party forecasts UK (RPI) 3.5% (2024 Actual), 3.25% to 2029, 2.5% there
Slide 31: Government bond yield and portfolio discount rate analysis
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Government bond yield and portfolio discount rate analysis Benchmark government bond 31 Dec 2023 31 Dec 2024 21 Feb 2025 yields1 UK 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% EU markets weighted average 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% Germany 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% France 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% Ireland 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% Sweden
Slide 32: GB forward power prices 2024-2027
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation GB forward power prices 2024-2027 Elevated UK and EU forward power prices since year end1 110 31 December 2024 100 Forward power price £/MWh 90 80 70 60 2025 2026 2027 2025 Average Independent Forecast 2026 Average Independent Forecast 2027 Average Independent For
Slide 33: The variability of power prices with EU gas storage levels
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation The variability of power prices with EU gas storage levels Weather-driven gas supply and demand heavily influence near-term power prices ▲ Gas supply and demand moves with storage targets and weather conditions, and is heavily influencing power prices for markets
Slide 34: Regional Price Variation and Cannibalisation assumptions
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Regional Price Variation and Cannibalisation assumptions 70 Forecast power prices major TRIG markets - £/MWh (real 2023) % Portfolio Cannibalisation Major markets 60 value (Dec. 24) (Average) France 9% -21% onshore/solar 50 Germany offshore 8% -19% Blended portfol
Slide 35: Price Seasonality in current principal merchant regions
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Price Seasonality in current principal merchant regions ▲ Prices are expected to vary over the course of any year with differences in the shape and quantum between different markets as a result of different supply and demand drivers ▲ These differences are also ex
Slide 36: Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin certificates
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin certificates Guarantees of Origin certificate forecasts REGOs - £/MWh 10 8 6 ▲ REGOs (Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin) in the UK and GoOs (Guarantee of Origin) are certificates which are intended to 4 demonstrate that ele
Slide 37: Power price forecasting – GB power forecast
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Power price forecasting – GB power forecast Valuation based on the range provided by mainstream forecasters 120 GB onshore wind curve (£/MWh, real) Carbon price (£/tCO₂) Gas price (£/MWh) 300 40 100 35 80 30 200 25 60 20 40 100 15 10 20 5 0 0 0 2025 2050 2025 2050
Slide 38: NAV sensitivities
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation NAV sensitivities Based on portfolio at 31 December 2024 Discount rate +/- 0.5% -3.7p 3.9p Output P90 / P10 (10 year) -14.4p 15.5p Power price -/+ 10% -7.5p 7.4p Reduction in Inflation -/+ 0.5% -4.5p 5.3p assumption Operating costs +/- 10% -5.1p 5.1p Increase in a
Slide 39: Approach to gearing
Appendix 1 – Financials & Valuation Approach to gearing Disciplined approach TRIG’s portfolio at 31 Dec 2024 Project Category Term Project Debt (Younger = <10yrs) % of Average gearing1 # of projects2 portfolio ▲ Limited to 50% of portfolio enterprise value Younger projects c.55% 38% 11 ▲ Fully amort
Slide 40: Diversified portfolio across geographies and technologies
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Diversified portfolio across geographies and technologies Diversification across multiple countries1,2,3 Low single asset concentration2,3 Hornsea One 10% 35% 23% 3% 7% 8% 9% 15% Jädraås 7% England & Wales Scotland N. Ireland Spain Germany France Sweden Establishe
Slide 41: Portfolio breakdown
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Portfolio breakdown Across technologies and geographies England & UK Total per Scotland1 N. Ireland Sweden France1 Germany Spain Wales subtotal1 technology Onshore 5% 17% 3% 26% 15% 8% - - 48% Wind Offshore 19% 6% - 24% - - 8% - 32% Wind Solar 5% - - 5% - 2% - 7%
Slide 42: Constructing a balanced portfolio
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Constructing a balanced portfolio Understanding the range of revenue types available for wind and solar generation Revenue Profile FiT & CfD UK ROC Unsubsidised Investment 100% 100% 100% Fixed1 Type Power sales 1 years 30 1 years 30 1 years 30 Revenue Risk lower h
Slide 43: Revenue profile
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Revenue profile Medium-term project-level revenues mainly fixed and indexed Breakdown of forecast revenues over the next 12 months PPA Market Revenue 18% PPA Market Revenue at Floor 2% REGO, GoO and Other Indexed Fixed 4% PPAs & FiTs 63% Indexed ROC’s (Buyout & Re
Slide 44: Introduction to battery storage revenues
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Introduction to battery storage revenues ▲ Batteries capture value through their ability to respond to the needs of increasingly intermittent electricity systems. In practice, this means that the primary revenue drivers for battery assets are a function of power p
Slide 45: Battery and onshore wind revenues are inversely correlated
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Battery and onshore wind revenues are inversely correlated Average weekly GB Onshore Wind and 2h duration ▲ Periods of high wind relative to demand reduce wind battery (excl. CM) achieved price capture price, but increase hourly wholesale price spreads and Balanci
Slide 46: Moderated operational revenues assumed
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Moderated operational revenues assumed ▲ Prices have recovered over the course of 2024 from historic Core battery revenues* actual and forecast low levels at the start of the year (£k/MW annualised real 2023 prices) 300 ▲ Balancing Market utilisation rates improve
Slide 47: Continuing price improvement over the medium-term
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Continuing price improvement over the medium-term ▲ Battery revenues in 2024 more than doubled from their all-time low by the end of the year, this improvement was due to: Wholesale arbitrage is expected to become a more significant ▪ National ESO (formerly Nation
Slide 48: System changes are expected to continue to improve Balancing Mechanism value capture
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction System changes are expected to continue to improve Balancing Mechanism value capture ▲ The in-merit1 dispatch rate of batteries more than tripled to 15% by the end of 2024 due to the roll-out of Open Balancing Platform reforms to the Balancing Mechanism to facilit
Slide 49: Counterparty exposure
Appendix 2 – Portfolio construction Counterparty exposure Broad spread of counterparties monitored regularly 1 2 3 Some projects have more than one counterparty in each of the above categories, in which cases the valuation of the project is apportioned between the counterparties www.trig-ltd.com 49
Slide 50: A commitment to sustainability
Appendix 3 – Sustainability A commitment to sustainability 1. Based on budgeted generation of the committed portfolio as at 31 December 2024. Calculated in accordance with the IFI Approach to GHG Accounting for Renewable Energy to aid comparison www.trig-ltd.com 50 with other industry participants.
Slide 51: Reform of GB electricity market design
Appendix 4 – Market backdrop Reform of GB electricity market design Major reviews of electricity market design in GB UK Government Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) In December 2024, the UK Government published an Autumn Update on the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements with the
Slide 52: Short-run marginal cost supply curve (merit order)
Appendix 4 – Market backdrop Short-run marginal cost supply curve (merit order) Gas-fired power tends to set the marginal price 160 Average Key elements of the power price: 140 Low Demand Demand High Demand natural gas and carbon prices Peaking 120 Capacity 100 £/MWh Gas CCGT 80 Coal Market Price 60
Slide 53: Experienced Management and Board
Appendix 5 – Management team Experienced Management and Board Independent Board Richard Morse (Chairman) Investment Manager Operations Manager Key roles: Key roles: Tove Feld Overall responsibility for day-to-day management Managing performance of the portfolio (SID) Advising the Board on stra
Slide 54: InfraRed Capital Partners – Investment Manager
Appendix 5 – Management team InfraRed Capital Partners – Investment Manager Over 25 years’ pedigree in infrastructure London New York Madrid Seoul KEY - InfraRed Office Sydney 4 Infrastructure Fund III Advise UK government on European Infrastructure 4 PFI programme 2 Infrastructure Energy 1 Environm
Slide 55: RES – Operations Manager
Appendix 5 – Management team RES – Operations Manager World’s largest independent renewable energy company ACTIVITIES TECHNOLOGIES Develop Construct Services Digital Wind Solar Storage T&D Green Biomass Hydro Hydrogen +40 24 #1 27GW 41GW OVER 4,500 YEARS COUNTRIES Experience in Worldwide The world’s
Slide 56: Diversified shareholder base
Appendix 6 – Company information Diversified shareholder base Shareholders by type, as % of Register1 Selected segments of TRIG’s shareholder base1 8% ▲ Top five holders account for c.25% of TRIG’s issued share capital 8% ▲ Top 10 holders account for c.40% of TRIG’s issued share capital 9% 41% ▲ Ret
Slide 57: Significant track record established over eleven years
Appendix 6 – Company information Significant track record established over eleven years NAV total return1,2 200p Annualised NAV total return since IPO: 7.6% 160p 120p 80p 40p 0p IPO 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 NAV per share Cumulative Dividends Share price performance and
Slide 58: Key facts
Appendix 6 – Company information Key facts Fund Structure ▲ Guernsey-domiciled closed-end investment company Performance ▲ Dividends to date paid as targeted for each period ▲ NAV per share of 115.9p (31 December 2024) Issue / Listing ▲ Premium listing of ordinary shares on the Main Market of the Lo
Slide 59: Contacts
Appendix 6 – Company information Contacts Investment Manager Operations Manager Renewable Energy Systems Limited InfraRed Capital Partners Limited Beaufort Court Level 7, One Bartholomew Close, Egg Farm Lane Barts Square, Kings Langley London, EC1A 7BL Hertfordshire, WD4 8LR +44 (0)20 7484 1800 +44
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