Orlen Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
Orlen Spolka Akcyjna — Grupa LOTOS — FY2015 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Orlen Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Mar 3, 2016
Slide 1: LOTOS Group Full Year 2015 and 4Q 2015 consolidated financial results
LOTOS Group Full Year 2015 and 4Q 2015 consolidated financial results Mariusz Machajewski, Vice President of the Management Board Maciej Szozda, Vice President of the Management Board Zbigniew Paszkowicz, Vice President of the Management Board March 3rd, 2016 Grupa LOTOS S.A.
Slide 2: Agenda
1 Key highlights 3-5 2 External environment 6-9 3 Upstream 10 - 14 4 Downstream 15 - 20 5 Consolidated financial results 21 - 26 Grupa LOTOS S.A.
Slide 3: Key highlights
Key highlights Grupa LOTOS LOTOSS.A. S.A. 3
Slide 4: Key highlights 4Q 2015
Key highlights 4Q 2015 y/y % change EBITDA Clean(1) EBITDA PLN m Clean EBITDA reported LIFO LIFO Consolidated -145 486 +32% upstream -66 71 -40% downstream -75 420 +71% Operating cash flow 402 m PLN Crude oil throughput 2 555 k tons Upstream production capacity, as per 31 Dec 2015(2) 30 326 boe/day
Slide 5: Key highlights 2015
Key highlights 2015 y/y % change EBITDA Clean(1) EBITDA PLN m Clean EBITDA reported LIFO LIFO Consolidated 1 138 2 156 +55% upstream 186 339 -33% downstream 875 1 779 +103% Operating cash flow 1 488 m PLN Crude oil throughput 10 210 k tons Upstream average daily production(2) 11 814 boe/day Note : V
Slide 6: External environment
External environment Grupa LOTOS LOTOSS.A. S.A. 6
Slide 7: External environment - crude oil prices & product cracks
External environment - crude oil prices & product cracks Avg Brent/Ural spread Avg Brent price USD/bbl 2.5 80 1.5 60 64 61 58 56 57 0.5 48 47 48 48 44 38 60 -0.5 -1.8 -1.4 -2.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -2.6 40 -1.5 -3.2 -2.3 20 -2.5 -3.5 0 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15
Slide 8: Model refining margin vs. peers
Model refining margin vs. peers (1) (1) (1) (2) USD/bbl LOTOS PKN OMV ERMI 12.00 11.30 11.40 10.00 9.20 7.84 7.78 8.00 7.45 8.20 7.36 7.45 6.00 6.60 6.50 5.19 6.41 5.9 4.90 5.18 4.00 4.07 3.75 2.00 6.97 7.32 9.38 8.08 7.41 6.21 0.00 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 (1) Source: Company
Slide 9: External environment – GDP growth, FX development & domestic fuel consumption
External environment – GDP growth, FX development & domestic fuel consumption (4) % Polish GDP growth (1) mln m3 Diesel consumption 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015(2) 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 (4) (3) USD/PLN 4Q'15
Slide 10: Upstream
Upstream Grupa LOTOS LOTOSS.A. S.A. 10
Slide 11: Hydrocarbons reserves and production figures
Hydrocarbons reserves and production figures Average daily oil&gas production (boe/d)(1) 2P(2) oil&gas reserves (m boe) 13 793 13 771 66.8 1 443 1 203 11 741 7.1 52.5 51.9 1 278 3 342 5 829 7.6 7.3 3 232 40.6 40.0 41.1 9 008 7 231 7 230 19.1 4.9 3.5 4Q'14 3Q'15 4Q'15 Dec 14 Sep 15 Dec 15 Norway Pola
Slide 12: Quarterly sales split by products and countries
Quarterly sales split by products and countries 4Q 2014 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 ths boe 641 601 563 3% 447 69%(1) 72% 247 68% 3% 206 155 9% 91 91 Norway Poland Lithuania Norway Poland Lithuania Norway Poland Lithuania (1) share of natural gas in total sales (in %) Oil Gas Grupa LOTOS S.A.
Slide 13: Upstream quarterly clean EBITDA development
Upstream quarterly clean EBITDA development PLN m -40% y/y 118 91 71 Clean EBITDA 4Q'14 Clean EBITDA 3Q'15 Clean EBITDA 4Q'15 4Q 2014 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 104 +17 91 118 58 71 53 14 74 18 +165 +136 33 -48 -66 (1) (2) (3) EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA Clean EBITDA Clean EBITDA Clean EBITDA Depreciation Depreciatio
Slide 14: Upstream segment clean EBITDA full year development
Upstream segment clean EBITDA full year development -33% y/y PLN m 505 339 Clean EBITDA 2014 Clean EBITDA 2015 344 505 +154 243 +786 339 161 186 96 -280 (1) (2) EBITDA One offs Clean EBITDA Depreciation Clean EBIT EBITDA One offs Clean EBITDA Depreciation Clean EBIT (1) 2014: assets impairments, inc
Slide 15: Downstream
Downstream Grupa LOTOS LOTOSS.A. S.A. 15
Slide 16: Refinery production - volumes of key products, crude oil throughput & utilisation rate
Refinery production - volumes of key products, crude oil throughput & utilisation rate Oil throughput (k tons) Refinery utilisation (%) k tons 120% 3 600 110% 100% 100% 94% 97% Crude oil throughput at 2 555 k tons, 3 200 93% 100% 2 800 2 628 2 651 90% with capacity utilisation rate at c. 97% 2 482 2
Slide 17: Share of key products in the overall refinery output
Share of key products in the overall refinery output 49% 47% 49% 49% 46% 19% 21% 20% 20% 19% 14% 14% 14% 15% 13% 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 (1) Diesel + Jet Gasoline Heavy Products (1) Heavy Sulfur Fuel Oil and bitumens Grupa LOTOS S.A. 17
Slide 18: Retail performance and market share evolution
Retail performance and market share evolution Annual Retail EBITDA (excl. Asset impairments)(1) Quarterly retail EBITDA +18% m PLN m PLN 48 112 95 20 21 27 16 39 44 (1) (1) 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Market share by sales volume Petrol station network (no. of units) 476 32.3%
Slide 19: Downstream segment quarterly clean EBITDA LIFO
Downstream segment quarterly clean EBITDA LIFO m PLN +71% y/y 519 420 246 Clean EBITDA LIFO 4Q'14 Clean EBITDA LIFO 3Q'15 Clean EBITDA LIFO 4Q'15 4Q 2014 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 161 -10 8 33 32 -7 131 246 37 519 492 420 318 +863 10 -814 EBITDA LIFO effect LIFO FX VAT arrears Clean LIFO -75 6 inventory diffe
Slide 20: Downstream segment full year clean EBITDA LIFO
Downstream segment full year clean EBITDA LIFO +103% y/y PLN m 1 779 875 Clean EBITDA LIFO 2014 Clean EBITDA LIFO 2015 131 428 279 875 -11 962 161 8 1 779 915 -315 65 32 EBITDA VAT arrears Assets FX LIFO effect LIFO Clean payment impairments operational inventory EBITDA LIFO EBITDA Assets FX LIFO ef
Slide 21: Consolidated financial results
Consolidated financial results Grupa LOTOS LOTOSS.A. S.A. 21
Slide 22: Quarterly operating result decomposition
Quarterly operating result decomposition m PLN 491 4Q 2015 486 8 -10 -145 136 6 -319 174 EBIT Depreciation EBITDA Upstream assets Downstream FX operational LIFO effect LIFO inventory Clean EBITDA impairments assets differences impairment LIFO impairments 131 4Q 2014 368 863 -857 -1 075 32 33 166 218
Slide 23: Full year operating result decomposition
Full year operating result decomposition m PLN 2015 428 279 162 -11 161 2 156 715 1 138 423 EBIT Depreciation EBITDA VAT arrears Assets FX operational LIFO effect LIFO inventory Clean EBITDA 2010 and 2011 impairments differences impairment LIFO 131 2014 962 1 391 65 817 -584 0 -1 393 808 Grupa LOTOS
Slide 24: Quarterly operating cash flow
Quarterly operating cash flow m PLN 576 564 451 402 321 199 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 Grupa LOTOS S.A. 24
Slide 25: Annual operating cash flow
Annual operating cash flow m PLN 1 932 1 416 1 381 1 488 1 347 905 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015* *Operating cash flow for 2015 excluding the effects of : 1) -370m PLN the increase of inventories caused by the investment in the crude oil reserves, acquired to benefit from the favorable situation on
Slide 26: Indebtedness
Indebtedness PLN m (1) (2) Net debt Gearing ratio 5 701 74% 5 319 62% 64% Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 (3) Net debt/LTM clean EBITDA LIFO Net debt figures include: interest bearing loans and borrowings, finance lease and bonds 5.2x 3.8x The current gearing ratio at a level of 74%
Slide 27: @GrupaLOTOS
@GrupaLOTOS Grupa LOTOS S.A. Investor Relations tel. +48 58 308 73 93 fax +48 58 346 22 35 e-mail ir@grupalotos.pl Twitter : @GrupaLOTOS Grupa LOTOS S.A.