Kinder Morgan, Inc. · NYSE:KMI
Kinder Morgan — Q1 2023 Earnings Presentation
56 slides from Kinder Morgan's earnings presentation, Apr 19, 2023
Slide 1: Investor Presentation 1Q 2023
INVESTOR PRESENTATION 1Q 2023 TransColorado Pipeline compressor station, Mancos, Colorado
Slide 2: Disclosure
Disclosure Forward-looking statements / non-GAAP financial measures / industry & market data General – The information contained in this presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all information that prospective investors may require. Prospective investors are encouraged to con
Slide 3: Leader in North American Energy Infrastructure
Leader in North American Energy Infrastructure Energy infrastructure, especially natural gas pipelines & storage, has a decades-long time horizon moving and storing the energy of today and tomorrow Largest natural gas transmission network Delivering energy to improve lives & create a better world —
Slide 4: Strategy
Strategy Maximize the value of our assets on behalf of shareholders Stable, fee-based Invest in a low Financial Disciplined Enhance assets carbon future flexibility capital allocation shareholder value Core energy Established Energy 4.0x 2023B Conservative Maintain strong infrastructure Transition V
Slide 5: Core Holding in Any Portfolio
Core Holding in Any Portfolio Generating significant cash flow & returning value to shareholders >$70 billion enterprise Largest energy infrastructure value company in the S&P500 ~36% of market cap value returned to shareholders since 2016 ~13% owned by Highly-aligned management with S&P500 CURRENT
Slide 6: Highly-Contracted Cash Flows
Highly-Contracted Cash Flows Stable cash flows with ~67% take-or-pay or hedged earnings CONTRACT MIX OF 2023B ADJUSTED SEGMENT EBDA Entitled to payment regardless of throughput Fixed fee collected regardless of commodity price Reservation fee for capacity Volumetric-based revenues Commodity-price ba
Slide 7: Proven History of Cash Flow Generation and Shareholder Returns
Proven History of Cash Flow Generation and Shareholder Returns $ billions ADJUSTED EBITDA NET DEBT DIVIDENDS PAID & SHARES REPURCHASED(a) $17.3 billion returned +18% -19% to shareholders $38 $0.5 $0.4 $7.9 $37 $7.5 $7.7 $0.4 $0.7 $0.5 $34 $33 $7.1 $7.2 $6.9 $32 $31 $31 $31 $2.5 $6.5 $6.7 $2.5 $2.4 $
Slide 8: 2023 Guidance
2023 Guidance Performance driven by strong market fundamentals and robust demand growth for our existing & expanded services Variance to Key metrics 2023 Budget 2022 Net income $2.5 billion -1% Adjusted Segment EBDA $8.2 billion +4% Adjusted EBITDA $7.7 billion +2% Distributable Cash Flow $4.8 billi
Slide 9: $3.3bn Committed Growth Capital Project Backlog
$3.3bn Committed Growth Capital Project Backlog as of 12/31/2022 Expect 62% of backlog capital in service in 2023, 22% in 2024, and 16% beyond LOWER $ million TOTAL CARBON Natural Gas $ 2,121 $ 2,121 53% for end-use, 20% supply-push, 25% G&P, 2% CCS Products 180 73 Renewable diesel projects Terminal
Slide 10: Market Fundamentals
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS CIG Rawlins station, Sinclair, Wyoming
Slide 11: Energy is Essential to Human & Economic Development
Energy is Essential to Human & Economic Development The transition to a renewable-energy world will not be seamless and will require the ongoing use of hydrocarbons U.S. POPULATION, GDP & ENERGY DEMAND BY SELECT FUEL TYPES 2021, 2030, 2040, 2050 400 +13% 376 +11% 350 363 347 +89% 40 332 300 +12% 40
Slide 12: Energy Transitions Take Time
Energy Transitions Take Time Our assets and services will be needed for a very long time GLOBAL ENERGY MIX BY FUEL PWh Biomass Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables Nuclear % of energy mix 180 – Energy transitions take a long time and consist of adding energy forms, 160 not eliminating existing forms 12%
Slide 13: Significant Additional LNG Capacity Will Be Needed to Meet Future Demand
Significant Additional LNG Capacity Will Be Needed to Meet Future Demand US & Middle East account for ~75% of LNG supply growth to 2050 2021–2050 LNG IMPORT DEMAND GROWTH bcfd GLOBAL LNG VOLUMES bcfd Southeast Asia 21 Rest of the world 13 70 63 60 India 5 60 54 55 57 China 1 Japan and Korea -8 50 44
Slide 14: U.S. Expected to Support Increasing Global Demand
U.S. Expected to Support Increasing Global Demand Reliable trade partner with ample reserves & price-competitive production FULL CYCLE COST OF LNG PROJECTS U.S. proved natural gas reserves increased 32% in 2021 US Other U.S. LNG exports are globally competitive and can $/mmbtu provide reliable & aff
Slide 15: U.S. CO2 Emissions Declined Since 2007 while GDP grew ~45%
U.S. CO2 Emissions Declined Since 2007 while GDP grew ~45% Primarily due to converting coal power generation to natural gas generation U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY CONSUMPTION % of total generation billion metric tons 7 -19%, -1.1 billion metric tons 6.0 6.0 6.0 20%
Slide 16: Replacing Coal Could Likewise Accelerate Global Emissions Reductions
Replacing Coal Could Likewise Accelerate Global Emissions Reductions POTENTIAL FOR LOWER GLOBAL EMISSIONS Mt CO2 Potential Net 9,394 Reduction of 26% 36,639 27,245 2021 total global CO2 emissions decrease in coal emissions 2050 potential global CO2 emissions (mostly attributable to coal to natural g
Slide 17: Reliable, Long-Duration Storage is Critical in Peak Demand Periods
Reliable, Long-Duration Storage is Critical in Peak Demand Periods DAILY AVERAGE OF WEEK-OVER-WEEK DAILY POWER EQUIVALENT TWh per day CHANGES IN U.S. WORKING GAS bcfd send-out build 6.1 2050 U.S. APS forecasts only 20 ~1.5 TWh of daily battery 0 capacity -20 Reliability is critical during these weat
Slide 18: Positioned for the Future of Energy
Positioned for the Future of Energy Our vast network of strategically-located energy infrastructure will continue delivering energy for decades to come Moving fuels of today & the future U.S. is the world’s most responsible producer Building new infrastructure networks is difficult, of scale environ
Slide 19: Valuable Networks
VALUABLE NETWORKS Tall Cotton compressor station, Seminole, Texas
Slide 20: Provide High-Value Natural Gas Takeaway in all Major Basins
Provide High-Value Natural Gas Takeaway in all Major Basins U.S. production expected to grow 20% by 2030 U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION TGP provides valuable egress for NE producers & serves RELEVANT TO OUR FOOTPRINT bcfd important domestic markets as well as LNG and Mexico 40 Northeast +5 bcfd 35 LNG
Slide 21: Strong Gulf Coast Footprint Positioned to Serve Demand Growth
Strong Gulf Coast Footprint Positioned to Serve Demand Growth >95% of demand growth is expected to occur in Texas & Louisiana, driven by exports & industrial U.S. NATURAL GAS DEMAND bcfd 125 LNG exports 24 106 LNG exports 11 LNG plant fuel 2 LNG plant fuel 1 LNG Terminals Processing/Treatment Plant
Slide 22: Transporter of Choice for LNG Facilities
Transporter of Choice for LNG Facilities due to Supply Diversity, Network Connectivity, & 700 bcf of Total Working Gas Storage U.S. LNG FEEDGAS & KM TRANSPORT POTENTIAL bcfd U.S. LNG Feedgas KM transport Contracted to move ~7 bcfd to facilities today & ~10 bcfd by the end of 2025 Evaluating ~9 bcfd
Slide 23: Extensive Storage Capabilities & Premium Service Offerings
Extensive Storage Capabilities & Premium Service Offerings Provide Valuable Solutions for Variable Demand from Utilities & Exports Largest storage position in U.S. with 700 bcf of storage Stagecoach provides CIG fully contracted for flexibility to serve NE Multi-turn storage facilities provide LDC &
Slide 24: Continue to Serve the Permian's Growing Gas Takeaway Needs
Continue to Serve the Permian’s Growing Gas Takeaway Needs Own interest in >7 bcfd of existing Permian takeaway capacity NGPL Highly utilized capacity with long-term contracts Advantaged Intrastates network, downstream of GCX and PHP, provides shippers with end-market optionality (Houston power & pe
Slide 25: Products Segment Overview
Products Segment Overview Refined products pipes deliver transportation fuels from refining centers to key demand markets; crude assets in major basins PRODUCTS SEGMENT Refined Products (mbbld) Crude G&P and transport (mbbld) Adjusted Segment EBDA ($mm) 2000 $1,400 1800 $1,200 1600 1400 $1,000 COVID
Slide 26: Products Segment's West Coast Renewable Fuels Projects
Products Segment’s West Coast Renewable Fuels Projects Subsidies & state goals for emissions reductions are driving increased RD volumes Particularly in California where stacked subsidies currently average ~$4.00/gal (RIN+LCFS+BTC) Products Pipelines Expanding our renewable fuel handling capabilitie
Slide 27: Terminals Segment Overview
Terminals Segment Overview Refined products focused; providing customers with unmatched scale, service-offerings & market-making connectivity # of capacity ASSET SUMMARY terminals (mmbbls) Terminals segment – Bulk 28 Terminals segment – Liquids 47 78 Products segment 65 56 Total Terminals 140 134 Jo
Slide 28: Tankers Meeting Domestic Maritime Demand
Tankers Meeting Domestic Maritime Demand Most modern & efficient Jones Act tanker fleet American Petroleum Tankers firm charter renewal option – 16 fuel-efficient Jones Act tankers YE-22 2023 YE-23 2024 YE-24 2025 YE-25 – Largest, most modern fleet with an average age of 8.8 years Bay State Dramatic
Slide 29: Industry-Leading Renewable Feedstock Storage & Logistics Offering
Industry-Leading Renewable Feedstock Storage & Logistics Offering Expanding Lower Mississippi River Hub Modifying 30 tanks & enhancing rail, truck, and marine New heated storage capacity and various marine, rail, & capabilities for Neste at Harvey pipeline infrastructure improvements at GRT $80 mill
Slide 30: CO2 Segment Overview
CO2 Segment Overview World class, fully-integrated assets | CO2 source to crude oil production & takeaway in the Permian Basin Interest in 5 oil CO2 pipelines CO2 EOR & TRANSPORT FREE CASH FLOW $ millions FCF Capex Adj. Segment EBDA fields with 9.2 CO2 source fields Oil fields $789 $777 billion barr
Slide 31: RNG Portfolio Grows with 2022 Acquisitions
RNG Portfolio Grows with 2022 Acquisitions LANDFILL-RNG ANNUAL PRODUCTION PRIMARILY CONTRACTED IN CAPACITY net to KM GROWTH PLAN TRANSPORTATION MARKET TODAY Potential to grow +0.6 bcf over next Long-term contracts in transportation/RIN 1.8 bcf operational (2.2 bcf gross) decade with little capex mar
Slide 32: Red Cedar Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Red Cedar Carbon Capture and Sequestration Utilizing KM’s assets and expertise to enable an accretive CCS project Overview CO2 pipelines Oil fields — Red Cedar Gathering (RCG) is a natural gas midstream joint-venture between Southern Red Cedar Facilities Ute Indian Tribe Growth Fund (51%) and Kinder
Slide 33: Recognized as an ESG Leader
Recognized as an ESG Leader Highly rated by multiple agencies improved ratings by publishing EEO-1 report and responding to CDP FTSE #3 MSCI A Sustainalytics #3 of Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Refining, of 114 Oil & Gas Storage & Pipelines subsector Marketing, Transportation & Transportation & #4 of Storage
Slide 34: Compelling Investment Opportunity
Compelling Investment Opportunity Strategically-positioned assets generating substantial cash flow with attractive investment opportunities NATURAL GAS PRODUCTS TERMINALS CO2 Storage Terminals Terminals CO2 source fields Largest energy infrastructure company in the Processing 16 Jones Act tanker Oil
Slide 35: Appendix
APPENDIX Terminal Pit 11, Pasadena, Texas
Slide 36: U.S. Production Continues to Recover from Pandemic
U.S. Production Continues to Recover from Pandemic U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION U.S. CRUDE PRODUCTION & REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLY bcfd mmbbld Road fuels Crude Jet fuel 108 15 102 12 96 9 2023 production well above Crude recovers to pre- 90 pre-pandemic level pandemic level during 2023 6 84 Refined produ
Slide 37: Natural Gas Gathering & Processing Assets Across Key Basins
Natural Gas Gathering & Processing Assets Across Key Basins Volume recovery ongoing G&P BUSINESS AS % OF 2023B NATURAL GAS SEGMENT GATHERING SHORT-TERM PRODUCTION OUTLOOK KMI ADJUSTED SEGMENT EBDA VOLUMES bbtud dry gas, bcfd, 2019 – 2024 4,000 2024 +63% over 2% Haynesville pre-COVID levels KinderHaw
Slide 38: Refined Products Volumes Recovering to Pre-Pandemic Levels
Refined Products Volumes Recovering to Pre-Pandemic Levels GASOLINE mbbld DIESEL mbbld JET FUEL mbbld 2019 2022 2023B 2019 2022 2023B 2019 2022 2023B 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 400 400 400 200 200 200 - - - 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2023B: 992 mbbld 395 mbb
Slide 39: Products Segment Crude Volume Update
Products Segment Crude Volume Update Business as % of 2023B KMI Adjusted Segment EBDA: 1% Crude G&P; 3% Crude Transport CRUDE TRANSPORT & GATHERING VOLUMES(a) mbbld SHORT-TERM PRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2019 – 2023 crude, mmbld 900 1.5 2023 +12% 2023 +7% vs 2022 vs 2022 600 1.0 300 0.5 - - 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q
Slide 40: Our Integrated Terminal Network on the Houston Ship Channel
Our Integrated Terminal Network on the Houston Ship Channel Refined products focused with an irreplaceable collection of assets, capabilities & market-making connectivity Our unmatched scale & flexibility: KM terminals & assets refined products terminals Colonial local refineries & processing Explor
Slide 41: Energy Transition Ventures (ETV) Group
Energy Transition Ventures (ETV) Group The group is evaluating commercial opportunities ETV Group focused on opportunities emerging from the low-carbon energy transition outside of our existing asset base Other business segments will continue to pursue their own energy transition opportunities on ex
Slide 42: RNG Market Opportunity
RNG Market Opportunity U.S. RNG PRODUCTION bcfd RNG DEMAND MARKETS transportation market voluntary market 3.2 RNG-based vehicles If RNG volumes are Parties interested in expect landfills to drive growth emit up to 75% less consumed by fleets voluntarily decarbonizing 2.8 GHG emissions than in the tr
Slide 43: Contract Strategy Insulates Cash Flow Through Commodity Cycles
Contract Strategy Insulates Cash Flow Through Commodity Cycles Structure long-term contracts that minimize price & volume volatility 67% take- or-pay or 26% fee- hedged based 7% Avg. remaining 2023B Adjusted Volumes & price are Price is fixed, Commodity- contract life Segment EBDA: contractually fix
Slide 44: 2023 Budget Sensitivities
2023 Budget Sensitivities Limited overall commodity exposure 2023B assumptions Change Potential Impact to Adjusted EBITDA & DCF (full year) Natural Gas Products Terminals CO2 Total Natural gas G&P volumes 3,668 bbtud +/- 5% $40 million $40 million Refined products volumes (gasoline, diesel & jet fue
Slide 45: Minimum Book Tax Detail
Minimum Book Tax Detail High-level example of calculation Net income Add back: Book depreciation Add back: Book federal income tax Subtract: Tax depreciation 2022 budgeted tax depreciation of ~$5.2 billion Adjusted Financial Statement Income (AFSI) x 15% Minimum Book Tax (MBT) PayPay the the greater
Slide 46: ESG Strategy
ESG Strategy Provide energy transportation & storage services in a safe, efficient, and environmentally responsible manner for the benefit of people, communities, and businesses Environmental Social Governance Invest in low carbon future Safety-focused culture Risks & opportunities are monitored and
Slide 47: Supporting a Low Carbon Future & Enabling Our Customers to Meet Their GHG Goals
Supporting a Low Carbon Future & Enabling Our Customers to Meet Their GHG Goals Methane emission reductions Economic opportunities to R&D for new technologies & transparent disclosure participate in energy transition — Annual or more frequent compressor — ~80% of 2023B discretionary capital — Chenie
Slide 48: Infrastructure is Essential to Reduce & Avoid GHG Emissions
Infrastructure is Essential to Reduce & Avoid GHG Emissions ONGOING ACTIVITES ANNOUNCED PROJECTS Avoided or reduced 17.1mm metric tons CO2e in 2021 Potential to avoid or reduce 9.8mm metric tons CO2e annually CO2e Annual CO2e avoided/reduced avoided/reduced 2021 Activities (metric tons) Projects (me
Slide 49: Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Reconciliations
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES & RECONCILIATIONS Elba liquefaction, Elba Island, Georgia
Slide 50: Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The non-GAAP financial measures of Adjusted Earnings and distributable cash flow (DCF), both in the aggregate and per share for each; segment earnings before depreciation, depletion, amortization (DD&A), amortization of excess cost of equity investments and Certain
Slide 51: Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Continued)
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Continued) Adjusted Segment EBDA is calculated by adjusting segment earnings before DD&A and amortization of excess cost of equity investments (Segment EBDA) for Certain Items attributable to the segment. Adjusted Segment EBDA is used by management in its analysis
Slide 52: GAAP Reconciliations
GAAP Reconciliations $ in millions 2022 Certain 2023 Budget Certain Items in Items in Segment Adjusted Adjusted Segment Adjusted Adjusted EBDA Segment Segment EBDA Segment Segment Reconciliation of Adjusted Segment EBDA (GAAP) EBDA EBDA (GAAP) EBDA EBDA Natural Gas Pipelines $4,801 $141 $4,942 $5,06
Slide 53: GAAP Reconciliations
GAAP Reconciliations $ in millions Reconciliation of DD&A and amortization of excess cost of equity investments for DCF 2022 Reconciliation of income tax expense for DCF 2022 Depreciation, depletion and amortization (GAAP) $ (2,186) Income tax expense (GAAP) $ (710) Amortization of excess cost of eq
Slide 54: Net Income & Adjusted EBITDA
Net Income & Adjusted EBITDA $ in millions 2023 2022 Change Budget Actual $ % Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP) $ 2,525 $ 2,548 $ (23) -1% Total Certain Items (12) 88 (100) NM DD&A and amortization of excess cost of equity investments 2,264 2,261 3 0% Income tax expense(a) 724 74
Slide 55: Reconciliations of KMI FCF & CO2 Segment FCF
Reconciliations of KMI FCF & CO2 Segment FCF $ in millions Reconciliation of KMI FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CFFO (GAAP) $ 5,043 $ 4,748 $ 4,550 $ 5,708 $ 4,967 Capital expenditures (GAAP)(a) (2,904) (2,270) (1,707) (1,281) (1,621) FCF 2,139 2,478 2,843 4,427 3,346 Dividends paid (GAAP)(b) (1,774)
Slide 56: Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA, Normalized for Divestitures
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA, Normalized for Divestitures $ in millions Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA, Normalized for Divestitures 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP) $ 708 $ 183 $ 1,609 $ 2,190 $ 119 $ 1,784 $ 2,548 Noncontrolling intere