Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s. · BIST:AKSEN
Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s — Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation
50 slides from Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s's earnings presentation, Dec 3, 2018
Slide 1: Transforming into a Global Energy Player
TRANSFORMING INTO A GLOBAL ENERGY PLAYER... 3Q 2018 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 3 DECEMBER 2018 P O W E R B E Y O N D B O R D E R S
Slide 2: Assets under operation across Turkey and Northern Cyprus
4 assets under operation CURRENT across Turkey and Northern Cyprus TOTAL Bolu-Göynük 270 MW 1,470 MW Natural Gas (2 plants) 1,047 MW 71% Fuel-Oil (1 plant) 153 MW 11% Lignite (1 plant) 270 MW 18% Şanlıurfa Antalya 147 MW 900 MW Northern Cyprus 153 MW 1
Slide 3: Assets under operation across Africa
3 assets under operation CURRENT across Africa TOTAL Aksa Energy’s all 3 power 476 MW plants are operational since 2017. Ghana HFO Power Plant became operational at the end of March 2017 with 192.5 MW, reached 280 MW in August same year and reached 370 MW in November 2018. Mali Mali HFO Power Plant
Slide 4: International Expansion
“INTE RNATIONAL .. “EXPANSION ea 4
Slide 5: Aksa Energy in Africa
Aksa Energy in Africa Ghana Madagascar Mali Population 28.8 mn Population 25.6 mn Population 18.5 mn GDP $ 47.33 bn GDP $ 11.5 bn GDP $ 15.3 bn GDP per capita $ 1,641 (real) GDP per capita $ 450 GDP per capita $ 825 Installed Capacity 4,440 MW Installed Capacity 676 MW Installed Capacity 535 MW Ener
Slide 6: Ghana HFO Power Plant 370 MW
Ghana HFO Power Plant 370 MW Construction completed in 9.5 months, utilising existing equipment from idle PPs in Turkey, reducing cash CAPEX. KEY POINTS •Over 120,000 m2 power plant area •Land purchased •1,200 containers of equipment *Picture as at July 2018 4
Slide 7: Ghana
Ghana Aksa Energy signed a PPA with the Republic TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) of Ghana pertaining to construction of a power plant, electricity generation and 5.000 take-or-pay electricity sales. 4.000 • 6.5 year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Republic of Ghana for installation of a 370 MW HFO
Slide 8: Ghana – Fast Track, USD Based Cash Generation
Ghana – Fast Track, USD Based Cash Generation Cash CAPEX recovered • Became operational at the end of March with 192.5 MW and increased to in June 2018 280 MW at the beginning of August 2017 • Reached 370 MW final capacity in November 2018 • 6.5 years contract started in August 2017 • c.15% of consu
Slide 9: Ghana HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments
Ghana HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments 90 MW extension is • 223,5 MW guaranteed capacity has been working since August 2017. To completed and the provide this guaranteed capacity, 280 MW capacity was installed. installed capacity rose to 370 MW. • Additional engines to take the capacity
Slide 10: Madagascar HFO Power Plant 1st Phase – 66 MW Completed
Madagascar HFO Power Plant 1st Phase – 66 MW Completed *Picture as at July 2018 8
Slide 11: Madagascar
Madagascar 20 year power purchase agreement (PPA) in INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) the Republic of Madagascar with Jiro Sy Rano Malagasy (Jirama), the state-owned 750 electricity and water services company. 600 • Established a 58.35% subsidiary in the Republic of Mauritius (Aksaf Power Ltd) with a local 4
Slide 12: Madagascar Key Points
Madagascar Key Points Cash CAPEX recovered • 61% of consumption in the country to be provided by Aksa Energy when in February 2018 both phases are operational • Advance payment ($3 mn) is received • Became operational in July with 25 MW and increased to 50 MW at the beginning of August 2017 • 66 MW
Slide 13: Madagascar HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments
Madagascar HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments A rehabilitation & • Madagascar has a new strategy of activating its existing sleeping assets. Out of these assets, operation agreement is a 5-year Operation & Maintenance contract for a 24MW power plant, expected to be operational in the last
Slide 14: Mali HFO Power Plant Operational since August 2017
Mali HFO Power Plant Operational since August 2017 *Picture as at July 2018 12
Slide 15: Mali
Mali Emergency power purchase agreement with INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) Énergie du Mali for the guaranteed sale of 600 the energy generated via EURO based tariff • 40 MW HFO power plant in the capital of Republic 400 of Mali, Bamako • 3 year contract signed with Énergie du Mali for 535 the guaranteed s
Slide 16: Mali – Key Points
Mali – Key Points 13% of consumption • € 4 mn mobilisation fee is received in the country to be • € 1.6 mn payment guarantee is received provided by Aksa • Became operational at the beginning of August with 10 MW Energy • Full commissioning (40 MW) completed in September • 13% of consumption in the
Slide 17: Mali HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments
Mali HFO Power Plant – Update on 2018 Developments Due to presidential • 40 MW installed, 30 MW guaranteed capacity up and running elections, since September 2017. negotiations are expected to resume • Negotiations to extend the duration and the capacity are ongoing. The process has been delayed due
Slide 18: Turkey & Africa
Turkey & Africa While continuing its investments in Turkey, EBITDA Aksa Energy has moved toward becoming a global brand with the investments it has undertaken in Africa. Turkey Turkey African PPs will be making up c.76% of EBITDA in 2018 Mali Ghana Africa Madagascar 16
Slide 19: Potential International Operations
POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
Slide 20: Potential Opportunities for 2018 & Beyond
Potential Opportunities for 2018 & Beyond Mali Senegal Chad Burkina Faso Guinea Benin Ghana Cameroon Gabon Indonesia Tanzania Angola Madagascar 17
Slide 21: Turkish Operations
TURKISH TURKISHOPERATIONS OPERATIONS
Slide 22: Energy Prices – Significant increase after natural gas tariff hikes
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Energy Prices – Significant increase after natural gas tariff hikes WEIGHTED AVERAGE ENERGY PRICE (TRY) 330 332 322 303 294* 280 The effect of natural gas price hikes 210 230 has a significant effect on the spot 185 195 181 187 178 161 180 market energy prices: 130 188 178 156 180
Slide 23: Natural Gas Prices
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Natural Gas Prices BOTAŞ has increased its tariff in BOTAŞ NATURAL GAS TARIFF (TRY) August reflecting devaluation into the price, resulting in a 49% increase. 1800 1,700 1,700 400 Due to the continued devaluation of 1,550 1600 350 TRY, BOTAŞ once again increased its 303 332 322 pri
Slide 24: Turkish Operations
Turkish Operations Spot market prices are highly correlated to the increase in gas prices, and they corrected to TRY 280 levels in 3Q18, representing 50% increase on average. The spot price increase improved the profitability of our coal fired power plant significantly. We sell about half of our pro
Slide 25: Financial & Operational Highlights 3Q 2018
FINANCIAL & OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018
Slide 26: 3Q 2018 Results – Sales Breakdown (Turkey+N.Cyprus)
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Sales Breakdown (Turkey+N.Cyprus) 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 9M 2017 9M 2018 MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh Northern Cyprus 176,615 380 175,897 431 175,664 467 176,518 560 177,510 814 531,153 382 5
Slide 27: 3Q 2018 Results Snap Shot
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Snap Shot 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018* 2Q 2018* 3Q 2018* QoQ Change 9M 2017 9M 2018* YoY Change Installed Capacity 2,377 MW 2,236 MW 2,221 MW 2,221 MW 2,221 MW - 2,377 MW 2,221 MW -205 MW Sales Volume (GWh)** 4,204 4,310 3,778 3,226 4,068 26% 12,644 11,072 -13% Net S
Slide 28: Rapid improvement in Net Financial Debt/EBITDA ratio
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Rapid improvement in Net Financial Debt/EBITDA ratio EBITDA NET FINANCIAL DEBT/EBITDA No TRY mn renewable full Africa 10 350 No 8,6 306 8,3 No renewable 300 Limited renewable full Africa renewable 8 full Africa 7,1 + Renewable full Africa 250 + 233 partial 217 5,
Slide 29: 3Q 2018 Results – Sales Breakdown
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Sales Breakdown 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh TURKISH MARKET 4,204,334 174 4,309,588 173 3,778,091 187 3,226,329 226 4,068,299 273 (Including N. Cyprus) AFRICAN 591,853 661 371,980 757 432,862
Slide 30: Regional EBITDA Breakdown
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Regional EBITDA Breakdown REVENUES (TRY mn) Although 74% of the revenues 917 are generated from Turkey and TRNC, African power plants generated 74% of the EBITDA in 2.569 9M18 due to their high margin FX based sales. TURKEY+N.CYPRUS AFRICA EBITDA (TRY mn) 200 556
Slide 31: EBITDA Breakdown by Currency & Fuel
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results EBITDA Breakdown by Currency & Fuel EBITDA BY FX RATE Hard currency portion of the EBITDA constitutes 87% of Aksa 13% Energy’s EBITDA in 9M18. DOLLAR BASED Out of the 13% pure Turkish TRY BASED operations, EBITDA derived 87% from natural gas is only 3%. EBITDA BY
Slide 32: Quarterly EBITDA Growth
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Quarterly EBITDA Growth EBITDA (TRY mn) EBITDA generated from 217 Africa increased by 28% QoQ in 3Q18. 163 168 170 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 AFRICA 27
Slide 33: Revised Financials
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Revised Financials • We have revised 2018 financials due to «unintentional» mistakes in the calculation of depreciation related to our African operations • The result of such revision is detailed in the following comparison table: (TRY mn) 1Q18 2Q2018 3Q18 9M18 Previous Revised
Slide 34: Consolidated Income Statement Highlights
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Financial Highlights 3Q 2018 Consolidated Income Statement NET SALES & EBITDA (TRY MN) 3.487 EBITDA Margin EBITDA Margin 3Q17: 18.3% 2.565 9M17: 12.9% 3Q18: 21.4% 9M18: 21.7% 1.428 952 756 332 174 306 Net Sales EBITDA Net Sales EBITDA 3Q2017 3Q2018 9M2017 9M2018 OPERATING INCOME
Slide 35: Net Financial Debt & Repayment Schedule
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Financial Highlights 3Q 2018 Net Financial Debt & Repayment Schedule NET FINANCIAL DEBT (TRY mn) 4.500 100% 86% 4.000 90% 76% 3.500 66% 80% 62% 62% 70% 3.000 60% 2.500 50% 2.000 40% 1.500 30% 1.000 1.781 2.742 3.086 2.777 3.996 20% 500 10% 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18 5.2 6.2 7
Slide 36: Consolidated Income Statement
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Income Statement (TRY) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 30.09.2017 30.09.2018 Net sales 3.178.201.840 3.599.311.868 1.022.120.075 1.036.169.391 1.428.214.991 2.565.379.499 3.486.504.457 Cost of sales -2.907.157.616 -3.283.982.668 -857.107.135 -853.612.354
Slide 37: Consolidated Balance Sheet
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Balance Sheet Assets (TRY mn) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.03.2018 30.06.2018 30.09.2018 Cash and cash equivalents 219.4 59.5 36.9 19.0 24.5 Trade receivables net 219.7 759.5 989.15 1,212.6 1,671.3 Due from related parties and 59.9 41.3 29.2 130.4 599.2 Inventory 416.4
Slide 38: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow (TRY mn) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 1Q2018 1H2018 9M2018 Net income (loss) before tax -367.62 290.12 68.21 133.33 125.21 Depreciation and amortisation 191.17 225 65 134.75 321.12 Other adjustments 623.91 -232.62 61.87 319.82 755.80 Change in workin
Slide 39: 2018 Guidance
2018 GUIDANCE
Slide 40: 2018 Guidance
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2018 GUIDANCE 2018 EBITDA BREAKDOWN 2018 EBITDA GUIDANCE (TRY) • SALES: 11.3 TWh • REVENUES: TRY 3.4 bn TURKEY+ N.CYPRUS • CAPEX*: TRY 120 mn 24% • EBITDA**: TRY 840 mn 840 642 AFRICA 76% 198 TURKEY+N.CYPRUS AFRICA TOTAL * Includes maintenance CAPEX in Turkey and Africa and the
Slide 41: 2018 Guidance – EBITDA Distribution
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2018 GUIDANCE In YE2018, Aksa Energy is EBITDA DISTRIBUTION (%) expected to generate 76% of its EBITDA from its African power plants while 24% from Turkey 24% 18% and Northern Cyprus (TRNC). As TRNC agreement is also a PPA in USD, 82% of 76% 82% Aksa Energy’s EBITDA is expected
Slide 42: Turkish Market
TURKISH MARKET
Slide 43: 9M2018 – Key Figures
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 9M2018 – Key Figures GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE Generation via natural gas 3% 1% decreased by 13 ppts YoY mostly Fuel-Oil 7% due to the increase in natural gas Lignite & Coal prices and the low spark spread. 22% 36% Natural gas Hydro On the other hand, generation Wind from coal & lign
Slide 44: Installed Capacity Changes by Fuel Type
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Installed Capacity Changes by Fuel Type 3Q2018 – 3Q2017 CAPACITY CHANGES Fossil Renewable When new and MW 3.493 decommissioned capacities 4.000 are netted off, there is an 3.000 1.797 increase of 1.797 MW in coal 2.000 1.059 468 & lignite, 1.059 MW in 1.000 19 -638 hydro, 468 MW in
Slide 45: Generation & Consumption
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Generation & Consumption Electricity generation increased by 1.6% and consumption by 1.7% YoY in 9M2018. GENERATION (GWh) CONSUMPTION (GWh) 221.059 217.518 221.017 217.358 9M18 9M 2017 9M18 9M 2017 38
Slide 46: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 47: Operational Assets
Operational Assets Power Plant License Owner Fuel Type Installed Capacity (MW) % Northern Cyprus Aksa Cyprus Fuel-oil 153 Ghana Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 370 Mali Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 40 Madagascar Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 66 Total Fuel-Oil Fired Power Plants 629 32% Antalya NGCC Aksa Energy Natural Gas 900
Slide 48: Ongoing Investments
Ongoing Investments Power Plant Investment License Owner Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Completion Year Madagascar Greenfield Aksaf Power HFO 54 2021 Total 54 The above projects are utilising mostly existing equipments from Şırnak, Hakkari, Mardin 1, Mardin 2, Samsun, Van and Siirt power plants. 40
Slide 49: Contact Investor Relations
Contact Investor Relations Özlem McCann Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Ozlem.McCann@aksa.com.tr +90 216 681 1053 Rüzgarlıbahçe Mah. Özalp Çıkmazı No:10 Kavacık / Beykoz, Istanbul
Slide 50: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Aksa Energy has prepared this presentation for the sole purpose of providing information, which contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these s
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