National Grid Plc · LSE:NG.

National Grid — FY2023/24 Earnings Presentation

71 slides from National Grid's earnings presentation, May 23, 2024

  1. Slide 1: Full Year Results 2023/24

    Full Year Results 2023/24 London, 23 May 2024

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary statement

    Cautionary statement This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securit

  3. Slide 3: Highlights

    Highlights John Pettigrew Chief Executive

  4. Slide 4: The direction of the energy transition is set

    The direction of the energy transition is set… Governments all have climate targets Fully decarbonised Great Britain electricity system by 2035 New York Massachusetts 100% zero-emission 50% reduction electricity sector in carbon emissions by 2040 by 2030 Decarbonising energy across the UK and US Nor

  5. Slide 5: Great Britain and US Northeast governments setting ambitious goals

    Great Britain and US Northeast governments setting ambitious goals to achieve it Generation mix is evolving Governments have ambitious targets Supply 5 by 2035: Great Britain (GB) generation (TWh)1 15 GW ► up to 85 GW in GB Offshore Wind 0 GW ► up to 20 GW in US jurisdictions Onshore 30 GW ► up to 9

  6. Slide 6: Increased clarity on investment plans

    Increased clarity on investment plans Increased visibility over last 6 months • Scale of future investment • Delivery profile • Regulatory frameworks Significant progress, providing confidence to set out plans for the next 5 years 6 National Grid plc Full Year Results 2023/24

  7. Slide 7: Increased clarity on investment plans

    Increased clarity on investment plans UK Electricity Transmission US Regulated 17 Accelerated Strategic Transmission Downstate NY KEDNY/KEDLI rate plan Scale Investment (ASTI) projects in licence • c.$5bn capex over 3 years • Mid-high teens £billions Upstate NY Niagara Mohawk (NiMo) upcoming rate fi

  8. Slide 8: Increased clarity on investment plans

    Increased clarity on investment plans UK Electricity Transmission US Regulated 17 Accelerated Strategic Transmission Downstate NY KEDNY/KEDLI rate plan Scale Investment (ASTI) projects in licence • c.$5bn capex over 3 years • Mid-high teens £billions Upstate NY Niagara Mohawk (NiMo) upcoming rate fi

  9. Slide 9: Increased clarity on investment plans

    Increased clarity on investment plans UK Electricity Transmission US Regulated 17 Accelerated Strategic Transmission Downstate NY KEDNY/KEDLI rate plan Scale Investment (ASTI) projects in licence • c.$5bn capex over 3 years • Mid-high teens £billions Upstate NY Niagara Mohawk (NiMo) upcoming rate fi

  10. Slide 10: Driving a significant step-up in investment & growth

    Driving a significant step-up in investment & growth c.£60bn capital investment Near doubling of investment (FY25-FY29) New 5-year framework (£bn) c.£60bn c.85% Green investment Last 5 years aligned to EU taxonomy £33bn One of the FTSE’s biggest investors in the energy transition FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

  11. Slide 11: New 5-year financial framework

    New 5-year financial framework FY2025 - 2029 Capital investment c.£60bn – c.£51bn green1 c.£100bn c.£23bn c.£17bn group assets by FY292 UK Electricity Transmission New York Regulated c.£8bn c.£11bn UK Electricity Distribution New England Regulated An attractive c.£1bn proposition of NG Ventures grow

  12. Slide 12: Strong track record of delivery

    Strong track record of delivery Expertise Organisation in large infrastructure set up to deliver World-leading capability in subsea cabling c.£1bn Strategic Infrastructure Hinkley Connection Project new business unit c.£1bn London Power Tunnels 2 Supply chain innovation c.$4bn New York 7.8GW Exceede

  13. Slide 13: High-growth pureplay networks

    High-growth pureplay networks Streamlined portfolio focused on regulated and competitive, onshore and offshore networks Refocused NG Ventures • UK Interconnectors and Offshore Hybrid Assets • US competitive electricity transmission Crystalising value • National Grid Renewables • Grain LNG 13 Nationa

  14. Slide 14: Key headlines

    Key headlines Strong financial performance in 2024 Underlying operating profit Underlying EPS Reliability £4,773m 6% 78.0p 6% 99.99% FY23: £4,518m FY23: 73.6p FY23: 99.99% Regulated networks capital investment Asset Growth Safety - LTIFR £7,571m 17% 9.7% 170bps 0.08 FY23: £6,462m FY23: 11.4% Group T

  15. Slide 15: Operational performance highlights

    Operational performance highlights UK New England Electricity Transmission 14% 47% increase in capital investment1 increase in capital investment • $2bn Electric Sector Modernization Plan filed • ASTI New York • 131 miles of leak prone pipe • Hinkley Connection Project £2.7bn replaced • London Power

  16. Slide 16: Financial Performance

    Financial Performance Andy Agg Chief Financial Officer

  17. Slide 17: Financial performance highlights

    Financial performance highlights Strong delivery in 2024 Underlying operating profit Underlying EPS Cost efficiency delivery £4,773m 6% 78.0p 6% £513m FY23: £4,518m FY23: 73.6p Target by end of FY24: £400m Dividend growth Return on Equity in line with policy Capital investment 8.9% 210bps 58.52p 5.5

  18. Slide 18: Investment driving asset growth

    Investment driving asset growth Capital investment 1 UK Electricity UK Electricity System Operator £8,235m 11% Distribution £1.2bn <£0.1bn FY23: £7,430m New York £2.7bn Regulated networks capital investment 1 £7,571m 17% UK Electricity Transmission Capital Investment 1 FY23: £6,462m £1.9bn £8.2bn As

  19. Slide 19: UK Electricity Distribution

    UK Electricity Distribution Return on equity Underlying operating profit (£m) Outperformance • Shift from RIIO-ED1 to ED2 • Lower incentives in first year 110bps (45) Net Revenue (31) (2) of ED2 Outperformance Controllable Other costs Targeted operational outperformance: 100-125bps Achieved FY23 FY2

  20. Slide 20: UK Electricity Transmission

    UK Electricity Transmission Return on equity Underlying operating profit (£m) Outperformance • Revenues supported by (14) (37) indexation and higher allowed 147 100bps Depreciation (7) returns Controllable costs Other Outperformance 118 Western Link • Non-recurrence of Western Link return (FY23) ret

  21. Slide 21: US Regulated – New York

    US Regulated – New York Underlying operating profit (£m) Return on equity 51 (61) • KEDNY/KEDLI and NiMo rate 55 (92) increases 96% 221 Bad Debts Controllable Costs Depreciation Other1 1,016 • Smart Path Connect early recoveries of our allowed Net baseline return revenue • Continued delivery of cost

  22. Slide 22: US Regulated – New England

    US Regulated – New England Underlying operating profit (£m) Return on equity • Higher rates in electric and gas 3 businesses 93% 2 months RI Controllable (25) (41) contribution Costs • Higher depreciation in PY Bad (47) of our allowed (52) 176 Debts Depreciation Other • 2 months inclusion of Rhode b

  23. Slide 23: NG Ventures

    NG Ventures Year ended 31 March 31 March Operating profit (£m) 2024 2023 Grain LNG 149 131 Operating profit and post tax share of JVs Smart Metering 13 4 • North Sea Link cap increase Interconnectors 306 355 Business Development & Other (14) (15) • BritNed lower auction revenues US Ventures 15 14 •

  24. Slide 24: Other activities

    Other activities Year ended 31 March 31 March Operating profit (£m) 2024 2023 Operating profit and post tax share of JVs Property 30 216 • Absence of property sales completed in the prior Corporate & other (151) (179) year as part of the St William JV disposal US Other 22 12 NG Partners (13) (25) In

  25. Slide 25: Interest, tax and earnings

    Interest, tax and earnings Finance Underlying Underlying costs effective tax rate 1 earnings 2 £1.5bn 15.6% 3 £2,879m 1% lower than FY23 Underlying tax charge: £515m3 FY23 : £2,694m3 • Lower inflation and • 170 bps lower than • 78.0p/share – up 6% repayment of the bridge prior year3 loan facility du

  26. Slide 26: Cash flow and net debt

    Cash flow and net debt Cash generated Net debt (£bn) from operations1 £7.3bn 1.7 0.4 Other (0.8) UK Gas FY23: £6.4bn 1.7 Dividend disposal Net cash interest & (7.3) 7.6 accretions Net cash outflow 2 (0.2) £3.7bn Op cash flow JVs & Capital Associates investment FY23: £3.1bn Net debt 3 Opening Closing

  27. Slide 27: Driving a significant step-up in investment & growth

    Driving a significant step-up in investment & growth c.£60bn capital investment Near doubling of investment c.10% group asset (FY25-FY29) growth (£bn) New 5-year framework CAGR FY25-29 c.£60bn c.£100bn group assets by FY291 Last 5 years £33bn c.85% Green investment aligned to EU taxonomy One of the

  28. Slide 28: A comprehensive financing plan

    A comprehensive financing plan A strong investment grade balance sheet positioned to deliver an unprecedented step up in capital investment • Raise of £7bn supports increased investment levels Equity • 7 new shares for every 24 existing shares. Issue price of 645 pence. • Continued issuance of senio

  29. Slide 29: Rights Issue timetable and terms

    Rights Issue timetable and terms Launching a fully underwritten, 23 May 10 June 12 June £7 billion rights issue FY results and Rights 24 May Last day for Results of Issue launch announcement Start of rights trading acceptance of rights Rights Issue • 7 new shares for every 24 existing shares • Issue

  30. Slide 30: FY25 Guidance

    FY25 Guidance Underlying EPS (illustrative) Continued strong underlying business performance across the group • Broadly flat underlying EPS, taking into account the increased share count and reduced interest charge 78.0p 6-8% CAGR from FY25… Adjusted Bonus for bonus and • 6-8% underlying EPS CAGR ou

  31. Slide 31: New 5-year financial framework

    New 5-year financial framework FY2025 - 2029 Capital investment c.£60bn – c.£51bn green1 c.£100bn c.£23bn c.£17bn group assets by FY29 2 UK Electricity Transmission New York Regulated c.£8bn c.£11bn UK Electricity Distribution New England Regulated An attractive c.£1bn proposition of NG Ventures gro

  32. Slide 32: Priorities & Outlook

    Priorities & Outlook John Pettigrew Chief Executive

  33. Slide 33: New York

    New York NGV FY25 Priorities c. £17bn UKET • KEDNY / KEDLI – Focus on delivering against higher allowed returns 9.35% c.60% vs prior 5 years NY c.£60bn • NiMo rate case filing – Significant electric transmission investment – Connections for EV, heat pumps and distributed generation ED – Working to p

  34. Slide 34: New England

    New England NGV FY25 Priorities c. £11bn UKET • Massachusetts Electric rate agreement c.60% • Progress ESMP filing vs prior 5 years1 NY c.£60bn • DPU order on role of local gas companies in achieving 2050 climate goals • Continue to advocate for Clean Energy Vision NE ED Growth drivers: • ESMP incre

  35. Slide 35: UK – Electricity Transmission

    UK – Electricity Transmission NGV FY25 Priorities c. £23bn UKET • Progress ASTI projects – Begin construction on: c.3.5X – Eastern Green Links 1 & 2 vs prior 5 years NY c.£60bn – Four onshore projects – HVDC framework tender ED • RIIO-T2 NE – Connect over 4GW: Greenlink, Dogger Bank – Hinkley Connec

  36. Slide 36: UK – Electricity Distribution

    UK – Electricity Distribution NGV FY25 Priorities c. £8bn UKET • Delivering 100-125 bps of outperformance >30% NY: £17bn • Progress towards £100m of group synergies over 3 years p.a. vs ED1 NY c.£60bn • Connections reform: plans to release 10GW of capacity • DSO function to aid smarter, two-way netw

  37. Slide 37: NG Ventures

    NG Ventures Re-focused NGV • UK Interconnectors and Offshore Hybrid Assets • US competitive electricity transmission Launch sale processes for National Grid Renewables Grain LNG 37 National Grid plc Full Year Results 2023/24

  38. Slide 38: A new and exciting phase of growth

    A new and exciting phase of growth A significant step up in investment and growth Acceleration of the energy transition c.£60bn investment through to 2029 Pureplay networks business Driving long-term value growth and shareholder returns 38 National Grid plc Full Year Results 2023/24

  39. Slide 39: Q&A

    Q&A By phone Call the conference lines: UK-Wide: +44 (0) 33 0551 0200 UK Toll Free: 0808 109 0700 Quote “National Grid Full Year” when prompted by the operator By text use the ‘Ask a question’ tab below In the event we do not have time for all questions, we will respond by email as soon as possible

  40. Slide 40: Appendices

    Appendices 40 National Grid plc Full Year Results 2023/24

  41. Slide 41: Impact to total dividend level and DPS

    Appendix 1 Impact to total dividend level and DPS Maintaining total dividend level Aim to grow rebased dividend per share (DPS) in line with UK CPIH Growth in line with UK CPIH DPS rebased by c.15% as a result of new shares issued 58.52p 53.1p2 45.3p £2.2bn1 FY24 declared total dividend Indicative F

  42. Slide 42: Impact to underlying EPS

    Appendix 2 Impact to underlying EPS FY24 underlying EPS adjusted for the bonus element – base for FY25 guidance 6-8% CAGR 78.0p 70.8p1 Broadly flat Continued strong underlying business performance across the group • Comparative FY24 underlying EPS will be adjusted to account for the bonus element of

  43. Slide 43: FY24 underlying EPS restatement and methodology notes

    Appendix 3 FY24 underlying EPS restatement and methodology notes Explanatory notes IAS33 bonus element methodology 1. Reported FY24 underlying EPS of 78.0p Metric Value Key Calculation 2. IFRS standard IAS33 requires adjustment FY24 Weighted average number of shares 3,692m A - for the bonus element

  44. Slide 44: Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment

    Appendix 4 Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment 17 projects included within our Electricity Transmission licence Project code Name E2DC Eastern Green Link 1 E4D3 Eastern Green Link 2 E4L5 Eastern Green Link 3 TGDC Eastern Green Link 4 E4D3 SCD1 South and East Anglia (SEA) Link OPN2 Yorkshir

  45. Slide 45: UK Electricity Transmission operating profit

    Appendix 5 UK Electricity Transmission operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 2,735 1,987 Pass-through costs (225) (217) Net revenue 2,510 1,770 Depreciation & amortisation (521) (484) Regulated controllable costs (248) (241) Pensions (38) (31) Other costs (26) (19) Tota

  46. Slide 46: UK Electricity System Operator operating profit

    Appendix 6 UK Electricity System Operator operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 3,788 4,690 Pass-through costs (2,605) (4,152) Net revenue 1,183 538 Depreciation & amortisation (61) (101) Regulated controllable costs (212) (175) Pensions (21) (17) Other costs (9) (7) To

  47. Slide 47: UK Electricity Distribution operating profit

    Appendix 7 UK Electricity Distribution operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 1,795 2,045 Pass-through costs (233) (418) Net revenue 1,562 1,627 Depreciation & amortisation (223) (223) Regulated controllable costs (270) (235) Pensions (20) (24) Other costs (56) (54) Tota

  48. Slide 48: New England operating profit

    Appendix 8 New England operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 3,948 4,263 Pass-through costs (1,653) (2,017) Net revenue 2,295 2,246 Depreciation & amortisation (420) (379) Regulated controllable costs (701) (728) Pensions (7) (26) Bad debts (79) (55) Other costs (445) (

  49. Slide 49: New York operating profit

    Appendix 9 New York operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 6,094 6,734 Pass-through costs (2,057) (2,847) Net revenue 4,037 3,887 Depreciation & amortisation (658) (597) Regulated controllable costs (1,057) (1,108) Pensions (21) (2) Bad debts (96) (151) Other costs (1,34

  50. Slide 50: NGV and Other Activities operating profit

    Appendix 10 NGV and Other Activities operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Revenue 173 231 Revenue 9 - Depreciation & amortisation (16) (9) Depreciation & amortisation (5) - Operating costs (68) (40) Operating costs (8) - IFA1 operatin

  51. Slide 51: Exchange rates

    Appendix 11 Exchange rates For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Closing $ / £ rate 1.26 1.23 Average $ / £ rate 1.26 1.22 For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2023 Impact on underlying operating profit (64) Impact on timing and major storms 10 Impact on interest 22 Impact on JVs (1) Impact on unde

  52. Slide 52: Pensions & other post-employment benefit obligations

    Appendix 12 Pensions & other post-employment benefit obligations (IAS 19 data) UK US As at 31 March 2024 (£m) ESPS NGUK PS NGED DB Pensions OPEBs1 Total Fair value of plan assets 2,368 4,327 5,087 5,320 2,631 19,733 Present value of liabilities (1,963) (3,942) (4,616) (4,912) (2,486) (17,919) Net as

  53. Slide 53: Timing impacts

    Appendix 13 Timing impacts UK Electricity Total UK Electricity System UK Electricity New New continuing £m Transmission Operator Distribution York England operations 2023/2024 opening balance to (recover) / return (207) 78 (117) 683 (384) 53 Opening balance restatement adjustment (6) (1) (7) - - (14

  54. Slide 54: UK Electricity Transmission

    Appendix 14 UK Electricity Transmission Regulated asset values (‘RAV’) and returns UK Electricity Transmission Regulator Ofgem RAV £18,462m Base allowed real return (Assumed CoD 1.92%) 3.27% ('Vanilla' WACC) Allowed RoE (nominal) 7.0% Achieved RoE (nominal) 8.0% Equity / debt (assumed) 45 / 55 Totex

  55. Slide 55: UK Electricity Distribution

    Appendix 15 UK Electricity Distribution Regulated asset values (‘RAV’) and returns UK Electricity Distribution Regulator Ofgem RAV £11,469m Base allowed real return (Assumed CoD 3.1%) 4.0% ('Vanilla' WACC) Allowed RoE (nominal) 7.4% Achieved RoE (nominal) 8.5% Equity / debt (assumed) 40 / 60 Totex c

  56. Slide 56: New York jurisdiction

    Appendix 16 New York jurisdiction Regulated asset base (‘Rate base’) and returns Rate base are reported by regulatory entity as at 31 March 2024 Returns Long Island Downstate New York Upstate New York Upstate New York are those for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2024 (KEDLI) (KEDNY) (NMPC Gas) (NMPC

  57. Slide 57: New England jurisdiction

    Appendix 17 New England jurisdiction Regulated asset base (‘Rate base’) and returns Rate bases are reported by regulatory entity as at 31 March 2024 Massachusetts Massachusetts Returns are those for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2024 Electric1 Gas2 Regulator Massachusetts DPU Massachusetts DPU Rate

  58. Slide 58: FERC jurisdiction

    Appendix 18 FERC jurisdiction Regulated asset base (‘Rate base’) and returns Rate bases are reported by regulatory entity as at 31 March 2024 Canadian Returns New England Interconnector are those for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2024 Power & other Regulator FERC FERC Rate base $2,646m $48m 10.6% 1

  59. Slide 59: Value Added

    Appendix 19 Value Added 2023 (constant For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 currency) change UK RAV 30,356 28,292 2,064 US rate base 25,097 22,517 2,580 NGV and other business assets 7,593 6,639 954 1 Other balances 1,256 3,019 (1,308) Total group regulated assets and other balances 64,302 60,467 4

  60. Slide 60: Group Return on Equity

    Appendix 20 Group Return on Equity For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Regulated financial performance 4,022 3,952 IFRS operating profit for non-regulated companies 467 708 1 Share of post tax results of joint ventures 174 202 Non-controlling interest (1) - Adjusted Group interest charge (1,6

  61. Slide 61: Weighted average number of shares

    Appendix 21 Weighted average number of shares For the year ended 31 March 2024 2023 Number of shares (millions): Current period opening shares 3,677 3,645 Scrip dividend shares (weighted issue) 10 9 Other share movements (weighted from issuance / repurchase) 5 5 Weighted average number of shares 3,6

  62. Slide 62: Interest cover

    Appendix 22 Interest cover For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Interest expense (income statement) 1,723 1,680 Exclude P&L pension charge 9 11 Hybrid interest reclassified as dividend (38) (39) Capitalised interest 251 249 Pensions interest adjustment 94 85 Unwinding of discounts on provision

  63. Slide 63: RCF:Debt

    Appendix 23 RCF:Debt For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 2023 Funds from operations (FFO) 5,681 5,399 Hybrid interest reclassified as dividend (38) (39) Ordinary dividends paid to shareholders (1,718) (1,607) Retained cash flow (RCF) 3,925 3,753 Borrowings 47,072 42,985 50% hybrid debt (1,034) (1,

  64. Slide 64: UK Electricity Transmission net revenue

    Appendix 24 UK Electricity Transmission net revenue For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 Revenue 2,735 Net timing adjustment (363) Incentives (excluding totex), Annual & Interim Pricing £m Pass-through costs (225) and pass-through costs Net revenue adjusted for timing 2,147 Deferred for future reco

  65. Slide 65: UK Electricity Transmission operating profit

    Appendix 25 UK Electricity Transmission operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 Net revenue adjusted for timing 2,147 £m Ofgem annual iteration revenue 1,844 Depreciation & Amortisation (521) + inflate to forecast PCFM inflation 444 Regulated Controllable costs, pensions and other cos

  66. Slide 66: UK Electricity System Operator net revenue

    Appendix 26 UK Electricity System Operator net revenue For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 Revenue 3,788 Net timing adjustment (800) Incentives (excluding totex), Annual & Interim Pricing £m Pass-through costs (2,605) and pass-through costs Net revenue adjusted for timing 383 Deferred for future r

  67. Slide 67: UK Electricity System Operator operating profit

    Appendix 27 UK Electricity System Operator operating profit For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 Net revenue adjusted for timing 383 £m Ofgem annual iteration revenue 359 Depreciation & Amortisation (61) + inflate to forecast PCFM inflation 87 Regulated Controllable costs, pensions and other costs

  68. Slide 68: UK Electricity Distribution net revenue

    Appendix 28 UK Electricity Distribution net revenue For the year ended 31 March (£m) 2024 Revenue 1,795 Net timing adjustment 159 Incentives (excluding totex), Annual & Interim Pricing £m Pass-through costs (233) and pass-through costs Net revenue adjusted for timing 1,721 Deferred for future recove

  69. Slide 69: Reconciliation of underlying EPS to statutory EPS

    Appendix 29 Reconciliation of underlying EPS to statutory EPS For the year ended 31 March (pence) 2024 Underlying EPS from continuing operations 78.0 Deferred tax on ET and ED (8.2) Timing and major storms costs 14.2 Adjusted EPS from continuing operations 84.0 Exceptional items & remeasurements aft

  70. Slide 70: Adjusted New England US GAAP earnings

    Appendix 30 Adjusted New England US GAAP earnings FY24 Earnings are higher year on year due to • Rate base growth (+13%) and higher $10.2bn For the year ended 31 March ($m) 2024 2023 achieved return on equity to 9.2% (FY23: Average EBIT 856 782 8.3%., including 0.5% net one-off benefit). rate base P

  71. Slide 71: Adjusted New York US GAAP earnings

    Appendix 31 Adjusted New York US GAAP earnings FY24 Growth in earnings driven by • Rate base growth of 11% $19.8bn For the year ended 31 March ($m) 2024 2023 Average EBIT 1,332 1,143 • New York achieved a RoE of 8.5%, rate base broadly in line with the prior year and Pension adjustment 159 219 deliv

National Grid — FY2023/24 Earnings Presentation on 6ix