Slide 1: Q2 2024 Results Presentation
Q2 2024 Results Presentation August 7, 2024
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from results or events e
Slide 4: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights “Nutrien benefited from improved Retail margins, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower operating costs in the first half of 2024. Crop input demand remains strong and we raised our full-year outlook for global potash demand due to healthy engagement in all key markets.” Ken
Slide 5: Strategic Focus
Strategic Focus “Our upstream production assets and downstream Retail businesses in North America and Australia have performed well in 2024. In Brazil, we continue to see challenges and are accelerating a margin improvement plan that is focused on further reducing operating costs and rationalizing o
Slide 6: Retail Results – Q2 2024
Retail Results – Q2 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Higher Crop Nutrients • Higher gross margin per tonne • Lower sales volumes due to delayed planting in North America Higher Seed • Increased proprietary products and the timing of supplier programs ro ro Protection See Merchan is
Slide 7: Retail Results – Q2 2024 YTD
Retail Results – Q2 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Higher Crop Nutrients • Higher gross margin per tonne, including proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines Higher Crop Protection Products: • Sell through of lower cost inventory compared to the same period
Slide 8: Potash Results – Q2 2024
Potash Results – Q2 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Decline in benchmark prices compared to the same period last year Higher sales volumes • Higher offshore demand • Partially offset by lower North American volumes due to more normal seasonal purc
Slide 9: Potash Results – Q2 2024 YTD
Potash Results – Q2 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Decline in benchmark prices compared to the same period last year Higher sales volumes • Strong demand in major offshore markets • Low channel inventories in North America to start 2024 A era
Slide 10: Nitrogen Results – Q2 2024
Nitrogen Results – Q2 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Weaker benchmark prices in key nitrogen producing regions Lower COGS • Lower natural gas costs Lower sales volumes • Wet weather in North America impacted the timing of nitrogen applications A
Slide 11: Nitrogen Results – Q2 2024 YTD
Nitrogen Results – Q2 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Weaker benchmark prices in key nitrogen producing regions Lower COGS • Lower natural gas costs A era e Net Sales GS ther Nitro en Sellin Price olumes Purchase Pro uct Adjusted EBITDA Averag
Slide 12: Financial Guidance
Financial Guidance 12
Slide 13: Financial and Operational Guidance
Financial and Operational Guidance 2024 Annual Guidance 1 Ranges as of August 7, 2024 May 8, 2024 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Low High Retail adjusted EBITDA $1.5 $1.7 1.65 1.85 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes) 2 13.2 13.8 13.0 13.8 2 Nitrogen sales volumes (mil
Slide 14: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA US$ Billions $2.29 Market Outlook and Assumptions • Expect record US corn and soybean yields due to favorable growing $1.94 conditions, which has pressured crop prices. $1.70 • Despite lower crop prices, demand for crop in
Slide 15: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 US$ Billions 4.0 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.5 • Raised our 2024 full-year global potash shipment forecast of 69 to 72Mmt. 3.0 • Expect a relatively balanced market in the second half o
Slide 16: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1, 2 US$ Billions 3.5 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.0 • Global nitrogen markets are being supported by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions. 2.5 • Chin
Slide 17: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 US$ Billions 0.7 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range • Phosphate fertilizer prices are being supported by tight global supply due 0.6 to Chinese export restrictions, low channel inventories
Slide 18: Disciplined Approach to Capital Expenditures
Disciplined Approach to Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures US$ Billions Investing Capital Priorities $2.7B • Retail: high value proprietary products categories, network optimization and digital capabilities $2.2B - $2.3B Investing • Potash: mine automation projects that enhance productivity a
Slide 19: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 19
Slide 20: Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low
Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low Corn Global Stocks/Use Ratios Wheat Global Stocks/Use Ratios Percent Percent 18% 30% 16% World excl. China World excl. China 25% 14% 12% 20% 10% 15% 8% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024F 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024F Increa
Slide 21: Brazil soybean area is expected to increase and grower margins have improved
Brazil soybean area is expected to increase and grower margins have improved Brazil Soybean Area and Grower Margin Soybean Area (Million Hectares) Cash Margin (BRL/Hectare)1 50 Area (Mil. Ha) Cash Margin (BRL/Ha) 7,000 45 6,000 40 35 5,000 30 4,000 25 3,000 20 15 2,000 10 1,000 5 0 0 2013 2014 2015
Slide 22: Prices remain above 10-year averages for many global crops
Prices remain above 10-year averages for many global crops US Corn Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Soybean Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Wheat Avg. Realized Price1,2 US$/bushel US$/bushel US$/bushel $11.10 $5.77 $5.70 $4.29 $4.30 $10.57 10-year Avg. 2024F 10-year Avg 2024F 10-year Avg. 2024F Brazil Soybeans1,
Slide 23: Weaker crop futures prices have the potential to compress grower margins
Weaker crop futures prices have the potential to compress grower margins, but key crop input costs have also declined, supporting affordability Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs3,4 USD/acre, CAD/acre, BRL/Ha US$/bu US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BR
Slide 24: Potash and nitrogen affordability expected to be supportive of demand
Potash and nitrogen affordability expected to be supportive of demand Selected Fertilizer Prices1 US$ per Unit Brazil Potash US Midwest Potash Tampa Ammonia NOLA Urea NOLA MAP 383 391 423 514 354 600 573 462 323 322 374 449 357 305 457 10-year 2023 2024 10-year 2023 2024 10-year 2023 2024 10-year 20
Slide 25: We expect global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024
We expect global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024 with shipments projected between 69 to 72 million tonnes Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F 20 21 22 23 24F India Other
Slide 26: We anticipate a relatively balanced global potash market in 2024
We anticipate a relatively balanced global potash market in 2024 with incremental supply from producers in Canada, Russia, and Belarus Potash Production in Selected Regions Millions of Tonnes KCl 25 2022 2023 2024F 20 15 10 5 0 1 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1. Includes produ
Slide 27: North American natural gas prices remain advantaged compared to Europe and Asia
North American natural gas prices remain advantaged compared to Europe and Asia, while key production and exports remain constrained 2024 Key Global Natural Gas Prices1 2024 Global Urea Production Cost Curve2 US$/MMBtu US$/tonne FOB $12 $450 Canada China Coal $400 US Other $10 $350 $8 $300 $250 $6 $
Slide 28: US nitrogen stocks estimated to have ended the most recent fertilizer year at average to below average levels
US nitrogen stocks estimated to have ended the most recent fertilizer year at average to below average levels, particularly for ammonia US Nitrogen Inventory Levels (June 30 Ending1) Millions of Tonnes Product 1.6 Ammonia Urea UAN 2018-2022 average 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2019 2020 2021 2022
Slide 29: Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average
Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 12 Annual Avg 2017-2021 (~9.2 Mmt) 6 Annual Avg 2017-2021 (~4.6 Mmt) 10 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2017 2018 2019 2020 2
Slide 30: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd