Progressive Corporation (the) · NYSE:PGR
Progressive Corporation (the) — The Progressive — Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation
49 slides from Progressive Corporation (the)'s earnings presentation, Mar 3, 2026
Slide 1: Investor Relations Progressive Capital Management
Investor 2025 Q4 Relations Progressive Capital Management
Slide 2: Information Relevant to this Presentation
Information Relevant to this Presentation Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this presentation and related comments by management during the earnings call not based upon historical fact are forward-looki
Slide 3: Information Relevant to this Presentation
Information Relevant to this Presentation Regulation FD Disclosure Outlets Progressive disseminates information to the public about Progressive, its products, services and other matters through various outlets in order to achieve broad, non-exclusionary distribution of information to the public. The
Slide 4: John Sauerland
John Sauerland Chief Financial Officer INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 4
Slide 5: Overview of 2025 performance
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Overview of 2025 performance 87.4 +$8.8B +3.7M NET WRITTEN PREMIUM POLICIES IN FORCE COMBINED RATIO (NWP) (PIFs) (1.4) PTS +12% +10% YOY YOY YOY Source: Internal data 5
Slide 6: Our major lines of business had an excellent 2025
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Our major lines of business had an excellent 2025 Combined ratio Combined ratio Combined ratio 88.1 75.1 87.0 PERSONAL VEHICLE PROPERTY COMMERCIAL LINES +12% +4% +4% PIF growth PIF growth PIF growth Source: Internal data 6
Slide 7: Progressive's four strategic pillars
People and Broad Leading Competitive culture needs brand prices Progressive’s four strategic pillars Ensuring that our people Meeting the broader Maintaining a leading Offering competitive and culture collectively needs of our customers brand recognized for prices driven by remain our most throughou
Slide 8: How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 GROWTH/PROFITABILITY CULTURE Grow as fast as we can at a 96 Ethical and inclusive culture or better combined ratio, as driven by our Core Values long as we can provide high- quality customer service How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization? RESULTS CAPITAL EFFICIENCY Hig
Slide 9: ROE, growth, and price/book
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 ROE, growth, and price/book 2020 – 2024 2020 – 2024 ROAE AND PRICE-TO-BOOK VALUE FOR U.S.-BASED PUBLIC P&C COMPANIES WITH >$5B DWP Direct Written Premium CAGR 5.0 Progressive Progressive Progressive 16.1% 4.5 2025 A 11.9% 4.0 B 9.6% 3.5 C 8.9% D 5.3% 3.0 E 13.1% E 2.5 F 11.8% A
Slide 10: Financial policies support operating business and help drive leading ROE
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Financial policies support operating business and help drive leading ROE Operating Financing Investing • Accurate, timely loss • Debt/total capital <30% • Total return focus reserving • Actively managed fixed • Neutralize employee income portfolio • Manage profit at stock compe
Slide 11: How do we balance all of those goals?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 CAPITAL How do we balance all of those goals? FINANCIAL LEVERAGE INVESTMENT CAPITAL ALLOCATION RISK FLEXIBILITY OPERATING LEVERAGE 11
Slide 12: What happened from 2022 – 2023
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 What happened from 2022 – 2023 Growth in net written premiums Higher combined ratios Full year 2022: Full year 2023: 2022 Progressive 2023 Progressive +$5 billion +$10 billion combined ratio: combined ratio: 95.8% 94.9% 10% growth 20% growth Financial markets turbulence Other c
Slide 13: Comprehensive income over time
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Comprehensive income over time $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $ MILLIONS $4,000 $2,000 $0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -$2,000 -$4,000 -$6,000 Investment Contribution Operating Contribution Source: Internal data Investment Contribution includes investment income, r
Slide 14: Variable dividend per share over time
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Variable dividend per share over time $16.00 8% $14.00 7% $12.00 6% $10.00 5% $8.00 4% $6.00 3% $4.00 2% $2.00 1% $0.00 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Variable dividend amount Dividend yield Source: Internal data Dividend yield reflects the last 12 months
Slide 15: Return on equity outperformance versus financial services peers
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Return on equity outperformance versus financial services peers 40% 40.00 35% 35.00 ANNUAL RETURN ON AVERAGE EQUITY 30% 30.00 25% 25.00 20% 20.00 15% 15.00 10% 10.00 5.00 5% 0.00 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Progressive Bank Average* Insurance Company Av
Slide 16: We optimize our operating leverage (premium : surplus)
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 We optimize our operating leverage (premium : surplus) • The amount of capital we need to hold against the premiums we write • We believe that we have a differentiated business model • Therefore, we want to leverage our returns on that business as much as possible • Key state r
Slide 17: We are more capital efficient than most other insurance companies
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 We are more capital efficient than most other insurance companies 3.00 NET WRITTEN PREMIUMS TO SURPLUS RATIO 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Progressive Mutuals/Conglomerate Insurance Companies* Stock Insurance Companies** Source: S&P
Slide 18: We think about capital in three layers
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 TOTAL AVAILABLE We think about CAPITAL capital in three layers LAYER C ADDITIONAL CAPITAL Layer A – Regulatory Capital LAYER B • Required regulatory capital, guided CONTINGENT CAPITAL by target premiums to surplus ratios Layer B – Contingent Capital • Guided by the amount of ca
Slide 19: Capital, equity, and surplus optimization
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Capital, equity, and surplus optimization STYLIZED EFFECT OF HIGHER SURPLUS X RATIO ON AVAILABLE CAPITAL X Two DOIs have approved Additional capital C C C increasing premium : surplus Contingent capital B B B ratios up to 3.5:1 from 3.1:1 In 2025, this freed up ~$1.6B Regulator
Slide 20: Agenda
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Agenda 01 / Financing policies 02 / Investment policies Maureen Jonathan Spooner Bauer Treasurer Chief Investment Officer 20
Slide 21: Financing Policies
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Financing Policies 21
Slide 22: Capital allocation
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Capital allocation Do we have excess capital after funding Our primary objective is to growth? ensure we have the capital necessary to write as much insurance as possible at a 96 Combined Ratio or better 22
Slide 23: Valuation matters across capital allocation options
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Valuation matters Do we have excess capital across capital after funding allocation options growth? Are valuations attractive? 23
Slide 24: Corporate development is viewed through a Three Horizons framework
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Corporate development is viewed through a Three Horizons framework Progressive growth strategy 03 HORIZON 3: EXPLORE Research, invest, and innovate beyond our property and casualty segment, and explore financial services. 02 HORIZON 2: EXPAND Invest in new products and services
Slide 25: Share repurchase volume is dependent on intrinsic value
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 SHARE REPURCHASES PER YEAR ($MILLIONS) Share repurchase volume is $250 dependent on intrinsic value $200 • Our financial policy is to repurchase enough shares annually to neutralize the $150 effect of employee stock compensation $100 • When our stock trades below our view of it
Slide 26: Dividends return excess capital that the business doesn't require
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Dividends return Do we have excess capital excess capital that after funding the business growth? doesn’t require for future growth Are valuations attractive? What level of excess capital do we need to retain for the future? 26
Slide 27: Our dividend policy is flexible
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Our dividend policy is flexible • Fixed quarterly dividend of $0.10/share • Annual consideration of a variable dividend was established in 2007 • Originally tied to Gainshare employee bonus calculation • Revised to be entirely variable in 2019 • Revision addressed times at whic
Slide 28: We strive to find the appropriate mix of capital
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 We strive to find Do we have excess capital the appropriate after funding mix of capital growth? Are valuations attractive? What level of excess capital do we need to retain for the following year? What is the best mix of equity and debt capital? 28
Slide 29: The appropriate amount and mix of debt and equity capital
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 The appropriate amount and mix of debt and equity capital • Our guideline allows for a debt-to- total capital ratio of up to 30% • We attempt to strike the right balance between efficiency and a strong balance sheet while considering future economic volatility • Other forms of
Slide 30: Progressive financial leverage over time
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Progressive financial leverage over time $40,000 35% $35,000 30% EQUITY AND SENIOR DEBT ($ MILLIONS) $30,000 25% DEBT TO TOTAL CAPITAL $25,000 20% $20,000 15% $15,000 10% $10,000 $5,000 5% $0 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Equity Senior Debt Debt/capitaliz
Slide 31: Financing policies
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Financing policies • Our primary objective is to ensure the capital necessary to write as much insurance at less than or equal to a 96 Combined Ratio • Additional capital may be deployed for corporate development, share repurchase or increased investment risk • Under-leveraged
Slide 32: Investment Policies
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Investment Policies 32
Slide 33: Where does that leave us for investment risk?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Where does that leave us for investment risk? Investment leverage = invested Risks that we take Guidelines provide assets/shareholders equity include credit, equity, specific limits for the and interest rate risk investment team An output of the decisions we Due to heightened i
Slide 34: Our investment portfolio has grown with our operating business
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Our investment portfolio has grown with our operating business $120.00 $100.00 17% $ BILLIONS $80.00 CAGR $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Internal Data 34
Slide 35: Manage on a total return basis
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Manage on a total return basis Comprehensive income Components of investment return Operating income Net income Fixed-income securities Equities Performance measures used by analysts • Interest income Investment income Dividend income • Amortization of premium or discount Reali
Slide 36: Investment income growth
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Investment income growth $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 26% $ MILLIONS $2,500 CAGR $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Internal Data 36 36
Slide 37: 2025 had strong investment returns
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 2025 had strong investment returns Return Fixed Income 95.7% Fixed income 7.0% Equities/other 16.8% YEAR-END EXPOSURE Total return 7.3% After-tax comprehensive Equities/Other income contribution ~$5.0 billion 4.3% Source: Internal Data 37
Slide 38: Key financial policy guidelines
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Key financial policy guidelines Description Guideline December 2025 Group 1 allocation <25% of portfolio 5.6% Duration 1.5 years to 5.0 years 3.4 years Average credit rating A or better AA- Financial leverage (debt/capitalization) <30% 18.5% Source: Internal Data 38
Slide 39: Investment team at a glance
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Investment team at a glance Overview Goals • Based in Stamford, CT • Achieve a strong, risk-adjusted total return • Assets under management >$95 billion • Support growth of operating business • Increase profitability of company Investment selection Asset class rotation • Active
Slide 40: Progressive Capital Management team structure/functionality
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Progressive Capital Management team structure/functionality Economics Investment research Trading/execution • Macroeconomic research • Portfolio strategy • Portfolio trades • Interest rate risk • Security analysis • Primary and secondary markets • Operating projects • Relative
Slide 41: How do we analyze fixed income investments?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 How do we analyze fixed income investments? Bottom-up view Investment flexibility Collaborate across teams Duration positioning • Analyze each • Wide investment mandate • Present select investments • Managed at portfolio level investment on its to broader team own merit • Inves
Slide 42: Interest rate risk adjusts to market conditions
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Interest rate risk adjusts to market conditions 4.0 3.5 3.0 DURATION 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2002 2005 2006 2006 2009 2004 2004 2007 2007 2000 2000 2001 2001 2003 2003 2008 2008 2020 2020 2021 2021 2023 2022 2022 2025 2025 2024 2024 2012 2015 2015 2016 2019 2014 2014 2017 2017 2010 201
Slide 43: We invest in the following fixed income sectors:
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 We invest in the following RMBS fixed income sectors: Corporates CMBS • Short-term investments ABS • Asset-backed securities Municipals Short Preferred • Commercial mortgage-backed securities Term 2025 YEAR-END Stock ALLOCATION* • Residential mortgage-backed securities • Corpor
Slide 44: Our equity mix reflects our risk/return and liquidity profile
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Our equity mix reflects our risk/return and liquidity profile COMPETITOR COMMON EQUITY ALTERNATIVES ALLOCATION 45% 12% 40% 10% 35% 30% 8% 25% 6% 20% 15% 4% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Progre
Slide 45: Annualized fixed income investment returns consistently outperform benchmark
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Annualized fixed income investment returns consistently outperform benchmark PROGRESSIVE VS BENCHMARKS* 6.00% Progressive Benchmark 5.00% 3 year 5.43% 5.07% 4.00% 3.00% 5 year 1.88% 1.11% 2.00% 10 year 2.97% 2.39% 1.00% 0.00% 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year PGR Benchmark Benchmark Source
Slide 46: Liquidity to support both asset allocation changes and dividends
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 Liquidity to support both asset allocation changes and dividends SHORT TERM PORTFOLIO SIZE $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $ MILLIONS $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Source: Internal Data 46
Slide 47: How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 GROWTH/PROFITABILITY CULTURE Grow as fast as we can at a 96 Ethical and inclusive culture or better combined ratio driven by our Core Values How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization? RESULTS CAPITAL EFFICIENCY High comprehensive Efficient capital structure return on equi
Slide 48: How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization?
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4 GROWTH/PROFITABILITY CULTURE Grow as fast as we can at a 96 Ethical and inclusive culture or better combined ratio driven by our Core Values How do we evaluate ourselves as an organization? RESULTS CAPITAL EFFICIENCY High comprehensive Efficient capital structure return on equi
Slide 49: Thank you
Thank you INVESTOR RELATIONS Q4