Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML

Asml Holding Nv — Investor Day (November 2008)

16 slides from Asml Holding Nv's investor day presentation, Nov 10, 2008

  1. Slide 1: Semiconductor Market Assessment

    Semiconductor Market Assessment Peter Wennink and Antonio Mesquida Kusters 15 October 2008, Veldhoven

  2. Slide 2: The world of lithography equipment

    T e r r a I n c o g n i t a The world of lithography equipment Photo-lithography fastest and most cost-effective chip production method 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Throughput [m2/hour] Resolution Pixel rate in DVDs/second 1 DVD = 8.5 GB 10 µm 3 µm 1 µm 300 nm 100 nm 30 nm 10 nm I C L i t h o g r a p h y

  3. Slide 3: Memory sets the pace in shrink

    Today '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Year of production start* Resolution, "Shrink" (nm) 100 80 60 40 30 20 50 *Process development 1.5 ~ 2 years in advance (updated 5/08) 200 Memory sets the pace in shrink NAND Flash vendors require most advanced scanners and solutions DPT and

  4. Slide 4: Price pressure leads to lower industry revenues

    Price pressure leads to lower industry revenues Seven research groups have cut forecasts, to 6% growth on average 2008 Semiconductor revenue growth forecast over time 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-06 Jan-07 apr-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Gartner (June 08) IC Insights (June 08) iSuppli

  5. Slide 5: Memory segment may shrink in 2008

    CAGR: 07/12 = 5% CAGR: 07/12 = 9% Memory segment may shrink in 2008 Significant variation in memory revenue forecasts Worldwide semiconductor revenue [B$] 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Big variation in memory forecasts; weak memory chip prices may pre

  6. Slide 6: Memory chip prices put Capex under pressure

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Chip ASP [$US] But, memory chip prices put C

  7. Slide 7: DRAM manufacturers with most aggressive shrink post highest operating margins

    DRAM manufacturers with most aggressive shrink post highest operating margins Operating margin of main DRAM manufacturers Source: DRAMeXchange (8/08), ASML Marketing (Fab dBase) - -120% - -100% - -80% - -60% - -40% - -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3

  8. Slide 8: DRAM technology & manufacturing clusters 2009

    15 DRAM technology & manufacturing clusters 2009 Consolidation is imminent 28.5% Source: Gartner, August 2008 "Forecast: DRAM Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09 (3Q08 Update)" Others 0.5% 2009 megabyte share 26.6% 30.5% 13.9% 21.5% 9.0% 22.9%

  9. Slide 9: Unprofitable fabs are taken out of production

    Unprofitable fabs are taken out of production DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement accelerated in 2008 Source: ASML estimates Expected DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement (Q1 08-Q4 09) - -200 - -175 - -150 - -125 - -100 - -75 - -50 - -25 0 20 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Capacity [200 mm e

  10. Slide 10: Impact example: ASML backlog by end Q3

    Impact example: ASML backlog by end Q3 Backlog Jan 03 39541 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 10/8/2008 Backlog value 1030 870 678 859 993 1357 1800 2053 1691 1377 987 1245 1434 1596 1830

  11. Slide 11: Drivers remain for semiconductor investments

    Source: ASML Last data point: June 2008 Drivers remain for semiconductor investments Overall IC unit demand still growing robustly IC unit sales compared with year before 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Units [B] 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Growth [%] 2007 Cumulative 20

  12. Slide 12: NAND Flash memory drivers

    NAND Flash memory drivers Mobile phones and PC Solid State Disks (SSD) to drive NAND Flash Note: NAND Flash consumption includes both in-system and removable storage such as Flash cards. Source: Gartner August, 2008 Imaging Video & Computing Audio Data Billions of MB 7.8 Billion MB 76.9 Trillion MB

  13. Slide 13: Key future application: SSD

    Key future application: SSD 3 main segments with different adoption curves Source: Gartner Dataquest, August 2008 Worldwide SSD forecast by application 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SSD [Mio. Units] Target OEM price for PC 256 GB Multi-Level Cell SSD in 2012 is <$100

  14. Slide 14: The NAND Flash price decline

    The NAND Flash price decline Price per GB set to fall by a factor of 25,000 in just 15 years Average price per Gigabyte 1997 2012 $7,870 $310 $7.94 $0.30 8 Level Cell = 3 bits per cell 16 Level Cell = 4 bits per cell Source: Gartner Dataquest, August 2008 SLC NAND MLC NAND 8/16 LC NAND

  15. Slide 15: SSD will use both SLC & MLC NAND; litho market 1-2 B€ by 2015

    Source: ASML MCC, based on Gartner's SSD forecast, August 2008 In most likely scenario, SSD will use both SLC & MLC NAND Thus, litho market expected to be between 1 and 2 B&128; by 2015 SSD driven litho revenue by NAND technology 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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