Allianz SE · XETR:ALV

Allianz — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

58 slides from Allianz's earnings presentation, Apr 10, 2025

Slide 1: Economic Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty
10 April 2025 storm markets outlook Allianz Research Economic Riders on the End of Q1 2025 updated economic and capital Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty https://unsplash.com/photos/shallow-focus-photo-gray-balance-stone-HWRAHxoBlpU Film Industry Rétroviseur Clapper Board extérieur Photograph no
Slide 2: Economic Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Economic Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty 1 The US has kicked off a full-fledged trade war: On 2 April, US president Donald Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs that exceeded expectations, with products imported from China set to be taxed at a staggering 130% f
Slide 4: Trump’s playbook: where do we stand?
TRUMP PLAYBOOK Trump’s playbook: where do we stand? Partial implementation call still holds Downside scenario Immigration: Trade Climate: Withdrawal Further spending Tax cuts from 2017 Chips war: Foreign policy The US The Fed Mar-a-Lago Deportations Implementation of from Paris agreement, cuts are r
Slide 5: What’s new: more aggressive policy stance in the US raising economic headwinds
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 What’s new: more aggressive policy stance in the US raising economic headwinds A temporary full-fledged trade war Tight US immigration policy to put a severe brake on US global effective import tariff rate (weighted average, %) population and potential growth q4/q4,
Slide 6: Focus: Tariff change and export losses for largest trade partners of the US
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Focus: Tariff change and export losses for largest trade partners of the US US imports US tariff rate Downside scenario Baseline scenario (accounting for deals to partly share of Before (no deal after USD bn "Liberation Day" (tariff hikes and reverse "Liberation Day
Slide 7: What’s new: Germany induced fiscal boost partially compensates for trade war losses
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 What’s new: Germany induced fiscal boost partially compensates for trade war losses in Europe Germany’s bold move to create fiscal space for Europe’s fiscal boost will outweigh headwinds from a defense and infrastructure more aggressive US trade policy Defense spend
Slide 8: German coalition seeks economic revival but compromises on key structural reforms
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 German coalition seeks economic revival but compromises on key structural reforms Development of current compliance costs since 2011 Main points from the German coalition contract in EUR bn (left) and bureaucracy index Jan 2012 = 100 (right) “Verantwortung für Deuts
Slide 9: What’s new: China stimulus substitutes for trade war
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 What’s new: China stimulus substitutes for trade war and a Xi-Trump deal would be a big positive China: Net trade in 2025 to have the worst weight on 2025 official growth target kept at “around 5%”, with growth in nearly a decade, vs. around +1pp in 2024 fiscal stim
Slide 10: Global growth to decelerate on trade war and uncertainty
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Global growth to decelerate on trade war and uncertainty Global real GDP growth US growth volatility amid trade woes GDP growth, q/q % (not annualized) © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSEG Datastream, Allianz Research 10
Slide 11: Risks to our scenario remain tilted to the downside
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Risks to our scenario remain tilted to the downside The balance of risk is tilted on the downside Uncertainty is currently close to its Covid-era peak Upside (The great acceleration – Downside (Stagflation – 15%) 35%) Europe is catching up to the US through Disrupti
Slide 12: Trump’s stance on Ukraine is pushing for unprecedented defense spending in Europe
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Trump’s stance on Ukraine is pushing for unprecedented defense spending in Europe Direct impact on GDP growth for an increase to 3% of To finance +0.8pp (EUR140bn) defense spending to GDP for each European state part of NATO reach 3% of EU GDP, all options are consi
Slide 13: New fiscal challenges, old fiscal constraints?
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 New fiscal challenges, old fiscal constraints? Defense spending will impact government balance in The EU has become the second largest bond issuer in the Eurozone, Germany in particular Europe which adds 0.7pp on average to fiscal deficits Government primary balance
Slide 14: Consumption: Subdued confidence weighs on households’ demand
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Consumption: Subdued confidence weighs on households’ demand Consumer sentiment is undermined by high economic Savings rates remain above their pre-pandemic uncertainty and structural issues levels in Europe, while in the US, they are inching up Consumer confidence,
Slide 15: Early signs of a trend reversal in labor markets?
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Early signs of a trend reversal in labor markets? Vacancy rates started to decline while Labor is not considered a limiting factor in production unemployment stays at record low level Industry survey –factors limiting production: labor Beveridge curve © Allianz 2025
Slide 16: Labor market easing reflected in declining real wage growth
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Labor market easing reflected in declining real wage growth Real wage growth will normalize from elevated ...and unemployment will pick up only slightly this levels in the US, UK and the Eurozone… year Real wage growth, % y/y Unemployment rate % 14 2023 2024 2025f 2
Slide 17: Top 30 sectors most at risk from the trade war
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Top 30 sectors most at risk from the trade war Exports in USD Country Sector Max Loss in baseline bn China Machinery & Equipment 63.5 54.0 China Household Equipment - Home appliances 56.6 48.1 China Computers & Telecom 70.2 25.8 China Textiles - Apparel & Footwear 4
Slide 18: Auto, textiles and non-food retail most at risk in current environment
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Auto, textiles and non-food retail most at risk in current environment Overall growth Impact of US tariffs on Impact of Trump policies on US industries Sector outlook 25-27* European industries (immigration, fiscal, tariffs, deregulation etc.) Automotive Negative Si
Slide 19: Corporates have been frontloading stocks in response to tariffs
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Corporates have been frontloading stocks in response to tariffs Tariff worries have been growing US imports have been higher than warranted (mentions of “tariffs” in US earning calls) 350000 US imports of goods (USD mn) Estimated imports based on US consumption 3000
Slide 20: Investment rebound yet to materialize in Europe
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Investment rebound yet to materialize in Europe Investment yet to rebound in Europe US sectors outpacing Eurozone ones in capex growth (y/y%) (% change in capex – US y-axis vs Eurozone x-axis) © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSEG Datastream, Allianz Research Sources: LSEG W
Slide 21: Global trade losing -1.5pp in 2025 in volume terms
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Global trade losing -1.5pp in 2025 in volume terms (and -0.7pp in 2026), due to the trade war Global trade in goods to contract by -0.5% in 2025 in US tariff rates unlikely to return to pre-Trump II levels volume terms (goods and services to grow by +1.2%) US bilate
Slide 22: Inflation reaccelerates in the US while other developed markets converge towards target
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Inflation reaccelerates in the US while other developed markets converge towards target Inflation forecasts Inflation momentum diverges in 2025 Quarterly inflation rates, y/y % © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSEG Datastream, Allianz Research 22
Slide 23: Higher supply and lower demand should weigh on energy prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Despite geopolitical uncertainty, higher supply and lower demand should weigh on energy prices Brent forecast revised slight down Natural gas forecast broadly unchanged (USD/bbl) (EUR/MWh) © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSEG Datastream, Allianz Research Sources: LSEG Datas
Slide 24: Central bank divergence to remain until end of 2025
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Central bank divergence to remain until end of 2025 when Fed re-starts its cutting cycle Central bank cutting cycle under way with a pause by Global quantitative tightening in 2025 continues but the Fed amid reflationary forces the Fed is likely to slow down further
Slide 25: Central banks in emerging markets in wait-and-see mode
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Central banks in emerging markets in wait- and-see mode or to ease cautiously Major EMs have manageable public debt paths Most EM central banks to cautiously ease in 2025 (except Argentina, Kenya and Egypt) Policy rates (%) Public debt sustainability score, 2025 vs.
Slide 26: EMs in the trade war dealing with the tariff stick
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 EMs in the trade war dealing with the (tariff) stick and gaining from the (diversification) carrot Finding a deal to lower tariffs: EMs contributing most Opportunities from diversification: The top next- to the US deficit could raise their imports from the US genera
Slide 27: Global business insolvencies could rise by +7% in 2025
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 Global business insolvencies could rise by +7% in 2025 and +4% in 2026, after +10% in 2024 Insolvency heat map 2025 prior to Liberation Day* Post Liberation Day scenario** to increase global insolvencies by +1pp both in 2025 and 2026 © Allianz 2025 (**) Mid-April 20
Slide 29: US growth is slipping into stagflation as trade war bites
UNITED STATES US growth is slipping into stagflation as trade war bites US economy is expected to go through a recession in Input and output prices in the manufacturing sector 2025 are starting to accelerate GDP, % q/q, non-annualized ISM manufacturing survey 100 75 1,5 80 Prices paid Supplier deliv
Slide 30: Eurozone GDP dragged down by net exports
EUROZONE Eurozone GDP dragged down by net exports while supply-side sector divergence still concerning Domestic demand to become a growth driver again Signs of recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector after prolonged under-investment and -consumption after high energy costs and weak global demand %
Slide 31: UK economy contending with weak growth, higher inflation
UNITED KINGDOM UK economy contending with weak growth, higher inflation Business surveys point to services inflation remaining The effective mortgage rate keeps rising as existing high for most of 2025 borrowers re-finance their mortgages (%) 8 70 Existing effective mortgage rate 7 Services inflatio
Slide 32: From belt-tightening to big spending
GERMANY From belt-tightening to big spending A bold move to create fiscal space for defense and Government debt may rise rapidly due to the fiscal infrastructure stimulus compared to following the debt brake policy Growth upside from more fiscal spending, contributions in pps and y/y in % % of GDP 3
Slide 33: French economy barely growing but ECB easing will help
FRANCE French economy barely growing but ECB easing will help Households’ home purchase intentions have picked Spending items sensitive to financial conditions are up, helped by easier access to credit recovering very sluggishly (% year-on-year) © Allianz 2025 Sources: LSGE Workspace, Allianz Resear
Slide 34: Primary surplus is back but new spending challenges will cloud the fiscal outlook
ITALY Primary surplus is back but new spending challenges will cloud the fiscal outlook again Primary balance back to surplus on the back of higher Job creation at its record but stabilizing, thus support revenues (direct taxes and non-recurrent inflows) to tax revenues will ease (General government
Slide 35: Activity overperformance to stay in 2025 while political fragmentation arises
SPAIN Activity overperformance to stay in 2025 while political fragmentation arises Consumer spending to support growth in 2025-2026... …with real income recovery to make up for a record (%y/y GDP growth and components) high household savings rate (%) 8 Change in stocks Net exports of goods and serv
Slide 36: Central and Eastern Europe is going for growth, but the inflation fight is far from over
EMERGING MARKETS – EUROPE Central and Eastern Europe is going for growth, but the inflation fight is far from over Improved growth prospects in Central and Eastern Upside risks to inflation Europe in 2025 y/y in % y/y in % 25% Poland Czechia Romania 20% Hungary Slovakia 15% Bulgaria 10% 5% © Allianz
Slide 37: Africa and Middle East growth down by 0.2% due to tariffs and oil prices
EMERGING MARKETS – AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST Africa and Middle East growth down by 0.2% due to tariffs and oil prices shock Conflict normalization and political stability in major Oil exporter’s GDP in the Gulf, Central Africa and Gulf economies boosts rates in the Middle East Nigeria most affected due t
Slide 38: EM Asia: hit from the trade war shaving off up to 0.6pp
EMERGING MARKETS – ASIA EM Asia: hit from the trade war shaving off up to 0.6pp to 2025 growth forecasts Asia-Pacific aggregate revised down to +3.9% in 2025 Stronger domestic policy support and trade (-0.3pp) and +3.8% in 2026 (-0.2pp), vs. +4.2% in 2024 diversification to help mitigate the impact
Slide 39: Local currency debt: the samba queen?
EMERGING MARKETS – LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Local currency debt: the samba queen? Our short-term country risk indicators point towards Real interest rate differential: more carry trade an overall improvement, but fragilities remain ahead? pps Average GDP (real growth, %) 2025 2026 2020- Rating
Slide 41: Look-back: Markets have miscalculated the second Trump presidency
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Look-back: Markets have miscalculated the second Trump presidency close b efore election day day after latest inauguration Trump wins Waiting for Trump Trump reality (first day market (election until inau- (market moves since 05/11/2024 06/11/2024
Slide 42: Look-back: 10y rates echo divergence in expected inflation
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Look-back: 10y rates echo divergence in expected inflation, CB cuts and loss of trust in US Economic data and loss of market confidence in US Germany’s fiscal stimulus boost has lifted rates while policy has shifted rates and CB expectations lower
Slide 43: Look-back: With economies drifting apart, markets move in opposite directions
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Look-back: With economies drifting apart, markets move in opposite directions Increased policy uncertainty in the US has led to a Diverging economic dynamics across the Atlantic closing of the equity valuation gap tightened the transatlantic spread
Slide 44: Markets to navigate amid uncertainty
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Markets to navigate amid uncertainty Capital Markets: Eurozone and US Capital Markets: UK, Emerging Markets, FX year-end figures year-end figures EMU Last* Unit 2022 2023 2024 2025f 2026f UK Last* Unit 2022 2023 2024 2025f 2026f Government Debt Gov
Slide 45: Rates to remain volatile but moving lower in the long run
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Rates to remain volatile but moving lower in the long run with additional curve steepening Government bond yields torn between inflation Recent steepening to accelerate as more rate cuts expectations, policy rates and deficits will be priced in % b
Slide 46: Inflation expectations and policy rate cuts balance out fiscal deficits
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Inflation expectations and policy rate cuts balance out fiscal deficits in the longer run Breakeven inflation expectations remain at elevated US fair value drivers: Policy rate cuts and inflation levels in the US and Europe expectations to counterb
Slide 47: Germany’s fiscal U-turn increases net bond supply
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Germany’s fiscal U-turn increases net bond supply, but rates impact should not be overestimated Germany’s net-net bond supply to increase strongly Germany’s fair value drivers: Limited impact from with higher fiscal spending and ongoing QT higher n
Slide 48: Eurozone government spreads should remain in check despite increased defense spending
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Eurozone government spreads should remain in check despite increased defense spending Spreads to remain at contained levels despite fiscal An EU wide increase of defense spending from 2.2% slippage risks amid higher defense spending to 3% of GDP pa
Slide 49: The Dollar is historically strong but fundamental drivers see temporary weakening
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS The Dollar is historically strong but fundamental drivers see temporary weakening against the Euro Rates and inflation forecasts point to widening real A “Mar a Lago” accord seems difficult to implement rates differentials favoring the dollar again
Slide 50: Equities under pressure: Valuations crack despite resilient earnings
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Equities under pressure: Valuations crack despite resilient earning amid stagflation fears Equity markets buckle under rising fears of a looming The correction is driven by valuation concerns, even “stagflationary” recession as earnings stay somewh
Slide 51: Concentration risk hurts valuations but earnings are likely to remain a cushion
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Concentration risk hurts valuations but earnings are likely to remain a cushion Market concentration risk is also backfiring in the US Unless we nosedive into a deep recession, our macro- as the Magnificent 7 amplify the correction based EPS models
Slide 52: Navigating uncertainty: EU resilience tested by US recession risks
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Navigating uncertainty: EU resilience tested by US recession risks, yet positive returns still expected Despite the recent outperformance, it would be Even with the latest market volatility we continue to difficult for EUR EQ to remain in the green
Slide 53: Back together again: credit risk & equity volatility realign
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Back together again: credit risk & equity volatility realign After a year apart, credit spreads and equity Despite recession fears pushing spreads wider, lower volatility are back in sync amid recent market treasury yields have kept USD corporate t
Slide 54: Range-bound markets with economic interruptions
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Range-bound markets with economic interruptions Market uncertainty may widen spreads, but We anticipate range-bound movements throughout fundamentals are still pointing towards resilience the year, punctuated by periods of widening driven by econom
Slide 55: Resilient performance of EM sovereign debt expected despite tariff turmoil
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS Resilient performance of EM sovereign debt expected despite tariff turmoil EM debt shows resilience, esp. high-grade bonds We expect HC spread to rise from historical low and (total return) LC yield to moderately fall amid the easing cycle 2025 Ran
Slide 56: EM carry remains attractive, with falling UST yields partially offsetting spread widening
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS EM carry remains attractive, with falling UST yields partially offsetting spread widening Spreads have widened esp. for HY, but still at Declining base rates provide support for total returns relatively low historical levels while carries are still
Slide 57: EM heavyweights heavily exposed to tariff risk and geopolitical tensions
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2025-2026 – CAPITAL MARKETS EM heavyweights heavily exposed to tariff risk and geopolitical tensions EM YTD gains erased by tariffs but still outperforming Escalation of US-China tensions to continue weighing DM on EM stocks (Index, Jan 1, 2025 = 100) 120 EM-DM gap (rhs) EM D

Allianz — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix

Allianz — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

Slide 1: Economic Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty

Slide 2: Economic Outlook 2025-26: Managing uncertainty

Slide 3: Global macro 2025-2026

Slide 4: Trump’s playbook: where do we stand?

Slide 5: What’s new: more aggressive policy stance in the US raising economic headwinds

Slide 6: Focus: Tariff change and export losses for largest trade partners of the US

Slide 7: What’s new: Germany induced fiscal boost partially compensates for trade war losses

Slide 8: German coalition seeks economic revival but compromises on key structural reforms

Slide 9: What’s new: China stimulus substitutes for trade war

Slide 10: Global growth to decelerate on trade war and uncertainty

Slide 11: Risks to our scenario remain tilted to the downside

Slide 12: Trump’s stance on Ukraine is pushing for unprecedented defense spending in Europe

Slide 13: New fiscal challenges, old fiscal constraints?

Slide 14: Consumption: Subdued confidence weighs on households’ demand

Slide 15: Early signs of a trend reversal in labor markets?

Slide 16: Labor market easing reflected in declining real wage growth

Slide 17: Top 30 sectors most at risk from the trade war

Slide 18: Auto, textiles and non-food retail most at risk in current environment

Slide 19: Corporates have been frontloading stocks in response to tariffs

Slide 20: Investment rebound yet to materialize in Europe

Slide 21: Global trade losing -1.5pp in 2025 in volume terms

Slide 22: Inflation reaccelerates in the US while other developed markets converge towards target

Slide 23: Higher supply and lower demand should weigh on energy prices

Slide 24: Central bank divergence to remain until end of 2025

Slide 25: Central banks in emerging markets in wait-and-see mode

Slide 26: EMs in the trade war dealing with the tariff stick

Slide 27: Global business insolvencies could rise by +7% in 2025

Slide 28: Regional outlooks 2025-2026

Slide 29: US growth is slipping into stagflation as trade war bites

Slide 30: Eurozone GDP dragged down by net exports

Slide 31: UK economy contending with weak growth, higher inflation

Slide 32: From belt-tightening to big spending

Slide 33: French economy barely growing but ECB easing will help

Slide 34: Primary surplus is back but new spending challenges will cloud the fiscal outlook

Slide 35: Activity overperformance to stay in 2025 while political fragmentation arises

Slide 36: Central and Eastern Europe is going for growth, but the inflation fight is far from over

Slide 37: Africa and Middle East growth down by 0.2% due to tariffs and oil prices

Slide 38: EM Asia: hit from the trade war shaving off up to 0.6pp

Slide 39: Local currency debt: the samba queen?

Slide 40: Capital Markets outlook 2025-2026

Slide 41: Look-back: Markets have miscalculated the second Trump presidency

Slide 42: Look-back: 10y rates echo divergence in expected inflation

Slide 43: Look-back: With economies drifting apart, markets move in opposite directions

Slide 44: Markets to navigate amid uncertainty

Slide 45: Rates to remain volatile but moving lower in the long run

Slide 46: Inflation expectations and policy rate cuts balance out fiscal deficits

Slide 47: Germany’s fiscal U-turn increases net bond supply

Slide 48: Eurozone government spreads should remain in check despite increased defense spending

Slide 49: The Dollar is historically strong but fundamental drivers see temporary weakening

Slide 50: Equities under pressure: Valuations crack despite resilient earnings

Slide 51: Concentration risk hurts valuations but earnings are likely to remain a cushion

Slide 52: Navigating uncertainty: EU resilience tested by US recession risks

Slide 53: Back together again: credit risk & equity volatility realign

Slide 54: Range-bound markets with economic interruptions

Slide 55: Resilient performance of EM sovereign debt expected despite tariff turmoil

Slide 56: EM carry remains attractive, with falling UST yields partially offsetting spread widening

Slide 57: EM heavyweights heavily exposed to tariff risk and geopolitical tensions

Slide 58: © Allianz 2025