Jefferies Financial Group Inc. · NYSE:JEF
Jefferies Financial — Energy Aspects — Investor Presentation (March 2026)
44 slides from Jefferies Financial's investor presentation, March 2026
Slide 1: Energy markets – what is the new normal?
Presentation | March 2026 Energy markets – what is the new normal?
Slide 2: US–Iran: Kinetic action has significantly increased disruptions to oil flows
US–Iran: Kinetic action has significantly increased disruptions to oil flows Oil export flows via Strait of Hormuz Oil flows via Bab el-Mandeb mb/d mb/d Crude Oil products 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan 23 Jul 23 Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Shippers are pausing attempts to transit Ho
Slide 3: Middle East Gulf ship traffic patterns show substantial reduction in flows
Middle East Gulf ship traffic patterns show substantial reduction in flows Source: Copernicus, Energy Aspects 3
Slide 4: What's lost and what's at risk?
What’s lost and what’s at risk?
Slide 5: Middle East production losses mount on curtailed Hormuz flows
Middle East production losses mount on curtailed Hormuz flows Middle East crude and condensate revision Daily production losses in the Middle East mb/d mb/d 2 0 (2) (4) (6) (8) (10) (12) 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Mar We estimate Middle East crude and condensate production will We see peak produ
Slide 6: East-of-Suez sites trim runs as operational continuity takes priority over profitability
East-of-Suez sites trim runs as operational continuity takes priority over profitability Iran conflict related run cuts Iran conflict related product supply loss mb/d mb Naphtha Gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel oil 6 ME AP EUR 400 350 5 300 4 250 3 200 150 2 100 1 50 0 0 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Mar 26 Apr 26 M
Slide 7: Over 5 mb/d of products, LPG transit Hormuz, disruptions supportive for east–west
Over 5 mb/d of products, LPG transit Hormuz, disruptions supportive for east–west Flows through Strait of Hormuz by importing region Strait of Hormuz products flows % mb/d Asia Africa Europe Americas Other ME Clean products Feedstocks 100 6 90 80 5 70 60 4 50 40 3 30 20 2 10 0 1 0 19 20 21 22 23 24
Slide 8: The policy reaction
The policy reaction
Slide 9: Record SPR release but drawdown rate matters more than outright volume
Record SPR release but drawdown rate matters more than outright volume OECD monthly crude and product SPR build/draw rates IEA stock release 2022 vs 2026 mb/d mb 2.0 450 Asia Pacific 400 1.5 Europe 350 1.0 300 North America 0.5 250 200 0.0 150 (0.5) 100 (1.0) 50 (1.5) 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 22
Slide 10: US SPR release primarily sours, outflows capped by drawdown rates
US SPR release primarily sours, outflows capped by drawdown rates US SPR cavern inventories US SPR drawdown rates mb mb/d Sweet volume (mb) Sour volume (mb) 200 0.4 0.5 180 0.2 160 0.0 (0.5) 140 (0.2) Weekly rate of change 120 Monthly rate of change (1.5) 100 (0.4) Historical weekly max 80 (0.6) His
Slide 11: US allows Russian and Iranian crude-on-water to be sold; Russian shut-ins delayed
US allows Russian and Iranian crude-on-water to be sold; Russian shut-ins delayed Russian crude-on-water Russian crude and condensate production mb mb/d 2026 2025 Five-year avg. 160 11.2 11.0 140 10.8 120 10.6 10.4 100 10.2 80 10.0 Mar 25 Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov India has
Slide 12: Security of supply becoming more critical for governments; China building storage
Security of supply becoming more critical for governments; China building storage Chinese crude stock change Chinese crude storage capacity additions mb mb Commercial SPR Above ground Underground/SPR 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 E 2024 2025 2026 E 2027 E
Slide 13: Product exports being slashed as Asian governments prioritise domestic supply
Product exports being slashed as Asian governments prioritise domestic supply Chinese gasoline exports 2025 Chinese gasoline exports by destination Mt Mt Singapore Malaysia Philippines Hong Kong 2025 2026 Five-year avg. 2.0 Mexico Brunei Bangladesh Indonesia South Korea Others 1.0 1.6 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.
Slide 14: Market impact - Crude
Market impact - Crude
Slide 15: Balances tighten significantly, on-water overhang also being run down
Balances tighten significantly, on-water overhang also being run down 2026 and 2027 liquids balances vs 1 March Crude-on-water mb/d mb 3.0 1,450 2026 2025 2024 Five-year avg. Current Previous 2.5 1,400 2.0 1,350 1.5 1,300 1.0 1,250 0.5 1,200 0.0 1,150 (0.5) 1,100 (1.0) 1,050 H1 26 H2 26 H1 27 H2 27
Slide 16: A structurally tighter oil market going forward, especially with SPR buybacks
A structurally tighter oil market going forward, especially with SPR buybacks Cumulative global liquids SPR change OPEC8+ spare capacity assessment mb mb/d Production Nameplate capacity 150 42 Available capacity Comfortable capacity 100 40 50 38 0 (50) 36 (100) 34 (150) 32 (200) 30 (250) (300) 28 Mi
Slide 17: Production response in Americas will take time
Production response in Americas will take time Upside to US production at sustained $90/bbl WTI Non-OPEC Latin American production, y/y mb/d mb/d $90 WTI Current Brazil Guyana 14.0 1.2 Argentina Colombia 13.8 Ecuador 0.8 13.6 13.4 0.4 13.2 0.0 13.0 12.8 (0.4) Apr 24 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26 Oct 2
Slide 18: Venezuela: Flows reshuffling, but long road to big supply recovery
Venezuela: Flows reshuffling, but long road to big supply recovery Venezuela crude exports by destination Venezuela crude production outlook mb/d mb/d US China 1.2 India Europe 1.6 Caribbean Other/unknown 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 2025 January 2027 start-2029 0.0 average (sanctions (base c
Slide 19: Oil subsidies return, but demand destruction requires sustained prices at $180/bbl
Oil subsidies return, but demand destruction requires sustained prices at $180/bbl Oil burden and demand growth Gasoline demand revisions % of GDP and % y/y kb/d Oil burden 0 10 Oil demand growth Demand destruction 8 Non-linearities intensify (50) 6 4 (100) 2 (150) March April 0 (2) (200) (4) Europe
Slide 20: Middle East energy crisis adding to private credit difficulties
Middle East energy crisis adding to private credit difficulties Private equity and credit stocks Private credit default rate Cumulative % % 20 Private equity firms 9 8 10 Private credit funds 7 0 6 (10) 5 (20) 4 3 (30) 2 (40) 1 (50) 0 Jan 25 Apr 25 Jul 25 Oct 25 Jan 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Pri
Slide 21: Impact on refining margins
Impact on refining margins
Slide 22: Prompt margins supported, but sharply backward forward curve will need to roll up
Prompt margins supported, but sharply backward forward curve will need to roll up Global average margins Clean product supply loss for additional runs $/bbl mb 2026 2025 2024-25 0.5 mb/d 1 mb/d 1.5 mb/d 2 mb/d 20 300 18 250 16 200 14 12 150 10 100 8 50 6 0 4 2 (50) 0 (100) Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Ma
Slide 23: Extended period of maximum throughputs required, distillates slowest to replace
Extended period of maximum throughputs required, distillates slowest to replace Clean product yields Product supply loss for 1 mb/d additional runs % mb Global average Average yield of run cuts Gasoline Jet Diesel 40 140 35 120 30 100 25 80 20 60 15 10 40 5 20 0 0 Gasoline Jet Diesel Mar 26 May 26 J
Slide 24: Runs growth reliant on new capacity, leaving limited slack for supply disruptions
Runs growth reliant on new capacity, leaving limited slack for supply disruptions Global (ex-China) runs contribution by type, y/y Global unplanned CDU outages mb/d mb/d Utilisation Maintenance Capacity Net 2026 2025 2024 2023-24 1.2 5.0 1.0 0.8 4.5 0.6 4.0 0.4 0.2 3.5 0.0 (0.2) 3.0 (0.4) (0.6) 2.5
Slide 25: Major closures have ended, but risk of delays to new capacity has increased
Major closures have ended, but risk of delays to new capacity has increased Global (ex-China) CDU capacity closures vs December 2024 Major CDU expansions vs September 2025 mb/d mb/d Panipat (IN) Barmer (IN) Grangemouth (GB) Lyondell (US - P3) Koyali (IN) Numaligarh (IN) 0.2 Wesseling (DE) P66 LA (US
Slide 26: Market impact - Products
Market impact - Products
Slide 27: Middle distillate flows significantly impacted by Middle East conflict
Middle distillate flows significantly impacted by Middle East conflict Middle distillate flows via Strait of Hormuz (outbound) East-of-Suez diesel supply mb/d mb/d 2026 2026 - Start of March 1.5 Diesel Jet 15.0 2025 average 2021-25 14.5 14.0 1.0 13.5 13.0 0.5 12.5 12.0 11.5 0.0 11.0 Jan 24 Jul 24 Ja
Slide 28: Spring diesel stockdraws sharply accelerated, will support medium-term cracks
Spring diesel stockdraws sharply accelerated, will support medium-term cracks Global diesel stocks (ex-China) Gasoil supply from new refining capacity billion bbls mb/d Barmer Panipat Balikpapan Numaligarh Koyali 2026 2025 Five-year avg. 1.15 0.20 1.10 0.15 1.05 0.10 1.00 0.95 0.05 0.90 0.00 Jan Mar
Slide 29: Low SPR volume and larger relative impact to push jet balances to critical levels
Low SPR volume and larger relative impact to push jet balances to critical levels Global jet inventories Middle distillate volumes in SPR by region mb mb/d 2026 Europe AP 330 350 2025 2024 320 300 Five-year avg. 310 2026 'outside Hormuz' 250 300 200 290 150 280 100 270 260 50 250 0 Jan Mar May Jul S
Slide 30: Jet supply tightened significantly by Middle East disruptions, Chinese exports ban
Jet supply tightened significantly by Middle East disruptions, Chinese exports ban Jet exports via Strait of Hormuz China waterborne jet fuel exports mb/d mb/d Hong Kong Other Asia Europe Americas Europe Africa Asia Other 0.6 0.50 0.5 0.40 0.4 0.30 0.3 0.20 0.2 0.10 0.1 0.0 0.00 Jan 25 Apr 25 Jul 25
Slide 31: Sharp gasoline stockdraws in March and April, most winter stockpiles in US
Sharp gasoline stockdraws in March and April (at least), most winter stockpiles in US Global gasoline stocks (ex-China) Gasoline November–January stockbuilds by region mb mb 2022 2023 80 North America Europe EOS 860 2024 2025 2026 Five-year avg 70 840 60 820 50 800 40 780 30 760 20 740 720 10 700 0
Slide 32: Middle East shortfall could drive counter-seasonal increase in west–east flows
Middle East shortfall could drive counter-seasonal increase in west–east flows Europe to east-of-Suez gasoline exports, east–west diffs Gasoline exports via Strait of Hormuz mb/d, $/bbl (RHS) mb/d East Africa Pakistan Other Asia 0.25 Asia 12 0.40 Africa Other Middle East Middle East 10 Other Gasolin
Slide 33: Maximum-middle-distillate incentives to prevail through summer
Maximum-middle-distillate incentives to prevail through summer Global stocks (ex-China) versus five-year average RB–HO spread % c/gal Gasoline Diesel Jun-26 Jun-25 Jun-24 Jun-23 1.08 40 1.06 20 1.04 1.02 0 1.00 (20) 0.98 0.96 (40) 0.94 (60) 0.92 0.90 (80) Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Jul 26 Ju
Slide 34: Petchem-derived aromatics, alkylate and MTBE production curbed
Petchem-derived aromatics, alkylate and MTBE production curbed India alkylate exports, cumulative September–February Chinese butane imports, MTBE exports y/y Mt Mt PADD 1 PADD 5 Canada Butane imports MTBE exports 1.6 0.6 Caribs Europe Asia 1.4 0.5 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 (0.1) 0.
Slide 35: Aramco LPG exports disruption, Iran conflict curtail Middle Eastern LPG exports
Aramco LPG exports disruption, Iran conflict curtail Middle Eastern LPG exports Ras Tanura LPG exports by destination Qatar and UAE LPG exports that transit Strait of Hormuz mb/d mb/d 0.3 India China Indonesia 1.0 United Arab Emirates Qatar Korea Vietnam Taiwan 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 May 24
Slide 36: Targa FM further restrict US LPG exports ahead of Neches River expansion in May
Targa FM further restrict US LPG exports ahead of Neches River expansion in May US LPG exports US propane stocks mb/d mb EHT Nederland Five-year range 4 Galena Park Other 120 2025 Freeport Marcus Hook 2026 Neches River Exports Max exports through July 100 Five-year avg. 3 80 2 60 40 1 20 0 0 23 24 2
Slide 37: East–west naphtha flows at risk as shippers halt transits via Strait of Hormuz
East–west naphtha flows at risk as shippers halt transits via Strait of Hormuz Naphtha flows that transit Strait of Hormuz Naphtha east–west spread mb/d $/t Korea Japan China Prompt M1 1.6 Singapore Thailand Taiwan 160 Others 1.4 140 1.2 120 1.0 100 0.8 80 0.6 60 0.4 40 0.2 20 0.0 0 Jan 25 May 25 Se
Slide 38: Market impact – Natural gas and LNG
Market impact – Natural gas and LNG
Slide 39: Iran conflict has derailed gas market's transition from tighter to looser balance
Iran conflict has derailed gas market’s transition from tighter to looser balance TTF vs coal breakevens and LNG shut-in price Aggregate European stocks €/MWh Bcm TTF (EA) TTF (ICE) Five-year range Five-year avg. 100 20 ppts 15 ppts 60 2025 2027 10 ppts 5 ppts 2026 0 ppts Lignite (min) 50 80 Lignite
Slide 40: Middle East LNG exports cut on attacks to Qatari infrastructure, Hormuz disruption
Middle East LNG exports cut on attacks to Qatari infrastructure, Hormuz disruption Satellite data showing likely damaged Ras Laffan sites Middle East LNG export forecast (red boxes) Mt 14 Pre-conflict Current forecast 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 26 27 28 29 QatarEnergy’s South Trains 4 and 6 were hit on 19 Marc
Slide 41: Asia to pull Atlantic basin cargoes, but we also expect demand destruction
Asia to pull Atlantic basin cargoes, but we also expect demand destruction Asian demand response to Hormuz disruption Asia-Pacific imports vs assumed price-insensitive supply Mt Mt JKM-TTF (EA) JKM-TTF (ICE) Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 3 US via Panama US via COGH W Africa Qatar China (1.3) (0.8) (0.7) 2 Ya
Slide 42: US LNG export capacity cannot flex higher to cover global market shortfall
US LNG export capacity cannot flex higher to cover global market shortfall US LNG capacity utilization forecast US LNG capacity and outages % bcf/d Five-year range 2026 Feedgas 105 23 Economics Forecast start 2025 Five-year avg. 100 Weather 21 Maintenance 95 19 90 Plaquemines ongoing 85 commissionin
Slide 43: Energy Aspects coverage areas
▪ Crude Oil ▪ Europe Gas ▪ Quant Analytics ▪ Europe Carbon Emissions ▪ Oil Products ▪ Europe Power ▪ Macro Quant ▪ North America Carbon ▪ Refining ▪ North America ▪ Long-Term & Transition Emissions ▪ Medium-term Refining ▪ Gas ▪ Cross-Market Analysis ▪ Carbon Offsets ▪ Methanol - MMSA ▪ North Americ
Slide 44: Leading Analysis
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