Bank Of Greece Sa · ATHEX:TELL

Bank Of Greece Sa — Bulgarian National Bank — Investor Presentation (May 2011)

26 slides from Bank Of Greece Sa's investor presentation, May 6, 2011

  1. Slide 1: Bulgarian Economy: Weathering the Current Crisis and Outlook

    Athens, 6 May 2011 BULGARIAN ECONOMY: WEATHERING THE CURRENT CRISIS AND OUTLOOK Presented by: Kristina Karagyozova-Markova BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK

  2. Slide 2: Drivers of Growth and Adjustment

    DRIVERS OF GROWTH AND ADJUSTMENT • Since 1997 economic growth was driven by domestic factors such as stability oriented macroeconomic policy and structural reforms, integration in the EU, and favorable external environment (capital inflows and cost of financing) • Over the time structure of growth w

  3. Slide 3: Initial conditions

    Initial conditions 2005-2008 average Real GDP growth 6.4 Current account balance, % of GDP -19.4 FDI, % of GDP 21.3 HICP inflation, annual average 8.2 Employment growth 3.0 Fiscal Balance, % of GDP 1.4 Growth of credit to NGS 37.8

  4. Slide 4: External demand conditions

    External demand conditions (growth rate, q‐o‐q, seasonally adjusted) 5 1 0 0 ‐1 ‐5 ‐2 ‐10 ‐3 2007 2008 2009 2010 Real external demand for Bulgarian exports (rhs) EU27: Real GDP growth rate (lhs)

  5. Slide 5: Real exports and external demand

    Real exports and external demand (growth rate, q‐o‐q, seasonally adjusted) 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 External demand for Bulgarian exports Bulgaria: Exports of goods Bulgaria: Exports of goods and services

  6. Slide 6: World market prices and nominal exports of goods

    World market prices and nominal exports of goods (growth rate, q‐o‐q, seasonally adjusted) 30 20 10 % 0 ‐10 ‐20 ‐30 2007 2008 2009 2010 Non‐energy commodity prices (NSA) Bulgaria: Exports of goods (value) Bulgaria: Exports of goods (deflator)

  7. Slide 7: Inflation (annual rate)

    Inflation (annual rate) 16 14 12 10 8 % 6 4 2 0 ‐2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HICP (overall) HICP excluding food, energy, administered prices and tobacco

  8. Slide 8: FDI and Current Account

    FDI and Current Account (% of GDP, annual basis) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 ‐25 ‐30 2007 2008 2009 2010 CA/GDP FDI/GDP

  9. Slide 9: Government and Private Sector Savings and Investment

    Government Private Sector (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 ‐5 ‐5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Savings Investment Savings Investment

  10. Slide 10: Net foreign assets of banks

    Net foreign assets of banks (% of GDP) 30 25 20 15 10 % 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 2007 2008 2009 2010 Foreign Assets Foreign Liabilities NFA

  11. Slide 11: Minimum required reserves rate

    Minimum required reserves rate 13 12 % 11 10 9 8 7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MRR effective rate

  12. Slide 12: Interest rates on deposits

    Interest rates on deposits 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Households Firms

  13. Slide 13: Deposits (annual growth)

    Deposits (annual growth) 50 40 30 20 % 10 0 ‐10 ‐20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Households Firms

  14. Slide 14: Credit standards applied to the approval of loans to enterprises

    Credit standards applied to the approval of loans to enterprises (net percentages of banks contributing to tightening standards) short‐term loans long‐term loans 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 ‐20 ‐20 ‐40 ‐40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 realised expected

  15. Slide 15: Interest rates on loans

    Interest rates on loans 14 13 12 % 11 10 9 8 7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Firms Consumer loans Mortgages

  16. Slide 16: Credit

    Credit (annual growth) 70 60 50 40 30 % 20 10 0 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Households Firms

  17. Slide 17: Consumer Behaviour

    Consumer Behaviour 15 10 % y­o­y, sa 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real Household Disposable Income Real Household Consumption Expenditure Note: Disposable Income is proxied by the sum of the economy‐wide wagebill, labour income from abroad, net private foreign current transfers and net g

  18. Slide 18: Evolution of Investment

    Evolution of Investment 20 76 15 74 GFCF growth, % q­o­q, sa 10 72 capacity utilisation, % 5 70 0 68 ‐5 66 ‐10 64 ‐15 62 2007 2008 2009 2010 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (lhs) Capacity Utilisation (rhs)

  19. Slide 19: Employment and Unemployment

    Employment and Unemployment 1.5 12 1.0 11 0.5 10 0.0 9 % q­o­q, sa %, sa ‐0.5 8 ‐1.0 7 ‐1.5 6 ‐2.0 5 ‐2.5 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Employment growth (lhs) Unemployment rate, LFS (rhs)

  20. Slide 20: Labour Costs

    Labour Costs 25 20 15 % y­o­y, sa 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 Compensation of Employees Compensation per Employee

  21. Slide 21: Dynamics of government revenues

    Dynamics of government revenues 45 2 40 1 35 0 30 ‐1 25 ‐2 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenues as % of GDP, annual basis (lhs) Cyclical component as % of GDP (rhs)

  22. Slide 22: Dynamics of government spending

    Dynamics of government spending 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Government consumption as % of GDP, annual basis Government investment as % of GDP, annual basis

  23. Slide 23: Budget balance

    Budget balance 6 4 2 0 ‐2 ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 2007 2008 2009 2010 Budget balance (ESA 95), % of GDP, annual basis

  24. Slide 24: General government debt

    General government debt 20 18 16 14 12 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 General government debt as % GDP, annual basis

  25. Slide 25: GDP Growth - Contribution of Components of Final Use

    GDP Growth ­ Contribution of Components of Final Use 15 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Private consumption Government consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Net Exports GDP, real growth

  26. Slide 26: Thank you for your attention!

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Bulgarian National Bank — Investor Presentation (May 2011) on 6ix