Slide 1: Global Market Forecast 2024
Global Market Forecast 2024 Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 2: Air transport industry has proven its resilience
Air transport industry has proven its resilience Long term growth recovered from previous local or global crises World air traffic (trillion RPK)* Asian Financial Gulf Crisis Crisis 9/11 SARS Crisis COVID-19 GMF 2000 forecast Post 9/11, SARS and financial crisis traffic rebound to long term growth 2010 -
Slide 3: Air transport industry has proven its resilience: Covid crisis
Air transport industry has proven its resilience Covid crisis was no exception Source: OAG, FR24, Sabre, IATA, Airbus GMF World air traffic (RPK versus equivalent month in 2019) corridor Traffic recovery Post-Covid traffic has developed in-line with anticipated recovery modelled on previous crises 3 Airbu
Slide 4: All industry actors contribute to resilience and growth
All industry actors contribute to resilience and growth Also visible during the pandemic Source: OAG, Cirium, Airbus GMF *Passenger aircraft above 100 seats Infrastructure Airlines and Network Fleet Public Service Obligation 160 new airlines since 2019 2,200 aircraft* changed routes Entrepreneurship
Slide 5: Airline operating results continue to recover
Airline operating results continue to recover Source: IATA, Airbus GMF Airline operating result ($ billion) Asian Financial Gulf Crisis Crisis 9/11 SARS Crisis COVID-19 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2 020 2024F 5 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 6: 2023 was a year of solid recovery and 2024 outlook is strong
2023 was a year of solid recovery and 2024 outlook is strong Source: IATA, S&P Global, Airbus GMF * June 2024 IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet - 2024e: estimation 2019 2023 2024e* 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% real GDP growth real GDP growth real GDP growth 4.5 4.5 ~5 billion passengers billion passengers billi
Slide 7: Efficiency improvement has enabled democratisation of air travel
Efficiency improvement has enabled democratisation of air travel CO2 emissions per RPK halved through technology and operational improvements Source: IATA, ICAO, EDGAR CO2 emissions, Airbus GMF * Note: commercial air transport direct share of total anthropogenic CO2 fossil emissions (excluding land us
Slide 8: GDP, trade and population are the main drivers of air traffic growth
GDP, trade and population are the main drivers of air traffic growth Source: S&P Global, Airbus GMF * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices World GDP World population Urban population +2.6% +1.3 bn +1.5 bn CAGR 2023-2043 from 2023 to 2043 from 2023 t
Slide 9: Passenger traffic forecast
Passenger traffic forecast Strong short term dynamic and long term normalisation World air traffic (trillion RPK)* Short term Mid and long recovery World air traffic (trillion RPK)* term trend High initial growth rate of 8.4% CAGR on average until 2027 as traffic recovers about two years lost during the pan
Slide 10: Traffic forecast: central scenario and uncertainties
Traffic forecast Central scenario and uncertainties Macroeconomics Ticket prices (GDP, trade, demography, inflation, energy) (incl. fuel price and other operating costs) GMF 2024 Central scenario Network, infrastructure Geopolitics and operations Regulations 10 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 11: Emerging economies continue to grow faster than advanced ones
Emerging economies continue to grow faster than advanced ones Source: IATA, Airbus GMF * 54 Emerging Economies & 31 Advanced Economies Real GDP growth (%) History Forecast Emerging economies* Advanced economies* 11 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 12: Modest traffic growth in mature flows
Modest traffic growth in mature flows… Source: Airbus GMF Top 20 traffic flows CAGR 2027-2043 (%) Annual RPK (billions) 12 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 13: Stronger traffic growth in Asia and Middle East, led by India and PRC
…and stronger traffic growth in Asia and Middle East, led by India and PRC Source: Airbus GMF Top 20 traffic flows CAGR 2027-2043 (%) Annual RPK (billions) 13 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 14: Air transport is tightly linked to economic development and geography
Air transport is tightly linked to economic development and geography Source: S&P Global, Sabre, Airbus GMF *Europe is based on geographic definition 2023 yearly trips per capita 2043 yearly trips per capita (bubble size proportional to country population) (bubble size proportional to country populat
Slide 15: Demand for 42,430 new aircraft between 2024 and 2043
Demand for 42,430 new aircraft between 2024 and 2043 Source Airbus GMF, Cirium Jan 24 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) & Freighters (≥ 10 tons payload) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Number of aircraft Grow New deliveries Replace Stay 15 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 16: Demand for ~33,510 new passenger single-aisle aircraft
Demand for ~33,510 new passenger single-aisle aircraft over the next 20 years Source Airbus GMF, Cirium Jan 24 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Number of aircraft Grow Open demand 20,440 New deliveries Replace Backlogs 13,070 at end 2023 Stay 16 Airbus Global M
Slide 17: Demand for ~7,980 new passenger widebody aircraft
Demand for ~7,980 new passenger widebody aircraft over the next 20 years Source Airbus GMF, Cirium Jan 24 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Number of aircraft Grow 6,130 Open demand New deliveries Replace Backlogs 1,850 at end 2023 Stay 17 Airbus Global Market F
Slide 18: Demand for 42,430 new aircraft by region
Demand for 42,430 new aircraft between 2024 and 2043 Source Airbus GMF Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) & Freighters (≥ 10 tons payload) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Europe & CIS North America PRC 8,050 Middle East 7,100 9,520 Africa 3,740 Asia/Pacific Typically Single Aisle (excl. PRC) Typ
Slide 19: Air cargo outlook supported by expanding GDP and Trade
Air cargo outlook supported by expanding GDP and Trade Source: S&P Global, Airbus GMF World GDP vs. World international trade World GDP World Trade Global trade growth converging toward GDP after a long period of accelerated globalization 19 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 20: Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo
Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo Source: S&P Global, Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF World air cargo traffic (billion Freight Tonne Kilometres) Global air traffic growth +3.1% CAGR 2027-2043 2043 2023 Express Express Express 20% 25% +4.4% CAGR 2027-2043 245 bn 525 bn FTK FTK General 80%
Slide 21: World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,360 aircraft by 2043
World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,360 aircraft by 2043 Source: Airbus GMF Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t Number of aircraft 3,360 Grow New-build Conversions Replace Stay 21 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 22: Global demand for 2,470 freighters over 2024-2043
Global demand for 2,470 freighters over 2024-2043 Source: Airbus GMF Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t Single-Aisle Mid-size Widebody Large Widebody (10t - 40t) (40t - 80t) (> 80t) 970 aircraft 880 aircraft 620 aircraft 22 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 23: Demand for 42,430 new passenger and freighter aircraft over 2024-2043
Demand for 42,430 new passenger and freighter aircraft over 2024-2043 Source Airbus GMF Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) & Freighters (≥ 10 tons payload) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Typically Single-Aisle Typically Widebody 33,510 aircraft 8,920 aircraft (inc. 940 new-built freighters) ~8
Slide 24: Airbus product line
Airbus product line 25-40% fuel burn reduction vs. previous generation aircraft End of June 2024 Backlog: 648 aircraft Backlog: 7,128 aircraft Backlog: 55 aircraft Backlog: 194* aircraft Backlog: 560 aircraft Single-Aisle Widebody Freighter 24 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024 *9 A330 MRTTs include
Slide 25: There is no single solution to decarbonise aviation
There is no single solution to decarbonise aviation Airbus supports the ATAG most ambitious technology scenario > ATAG CO2 Roadmap based on most ambitious technology scenario & central traffic growth scenario: 3.1% CAGR 2019-2050) ciency Latest Generation Aircraft e et effi fl 019 en 2 Froz Disruptive Te
Slide 26: Latest generation aircraft
Latest Generation Operations & Sustainable Disruptive Carbon offsetting Aircraft Infrastructures Aviation Fuels Technology and capture Latest generation aircraft Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF % of in-service fleet by aircraft generation ● Fleet replacement could yield around 25% CO2 savings vs. previous
Slide 27: Operations & Infrastructures
Latest Generation Operations & Sustainable Disruptive Carbon offsetting Aircraft Infrastructures Aviation Fuels Technology and capture Operations & Infrastructures ● Increased efficiency of the current fleet, by up to 10%, with a range of solutions ● Upgraded aircraft systems ● Optimised flight trajector
Slide 28: Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Latest Generation Operations & Sustainable Disruptive Carbon offsetting Aircraft Infrastructures Aviation Fuels Technology and capture Sustainable Aviation Fuels ● Flying with 100% SAF reduces lifecycle CO2 emissions by an average of 80% when compared to traditional aviation fuel ● All Airbus aircraf
Slide 29: Disruptive technologies
Latest Generation Operations & Sustainable Disruptive Carbon offsetting Aircraft Infrastructures Aviation Fuels Technology and capture Disruptive technologies ● Development, testing and maturity-based deployment of advanced technologies ● Ambition to bring a hydrogen-powered aircraft to the market by
Slide 30: Carbon offsetting & capture
Latest Generation Operations & Sustainable Disruptive Carbon offsetting Aircraft Infrastructures Aviation Fuels Technology and capture Carbon offsetting & capture ● Regulatory measures: European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International A
Slide 31: Airbus is leading aviation decarbonisation
Airbus is leading aviation decarbonisation 2050+ Today Fleet renewal / 25% less CO2 Continuous incremental improvement Latest generation aircraft → Already 25% CO2 reduction compared to previous generation aircraft Services portfolio Expanding upgrades / performance & trajectory Operations → improvi
Slide 32: Takeaways
Takeaways Source: Airbus GMF Passenger Traffic Long Term CAGR 3.6% Freight Traffic Long Term CAGR 3.1% Fleet in service end- 2023 24,260 aircraft Fleet in service end- 2043 48,230 aircraft New deliveries 2024-2043 42,430 aircraft 32 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2024
Slide 33: Copyright and proprietary notice
© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LTD, Airbus Operations SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and