Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
41 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2024
Slide 1: Earnings Review and Business Update
Q3 / 2024 Earnings Review and Business Update Lynn Good / Chair and CEO Harry Sideris / President Brian Savoy / Executive Vice President and CFO November 7, 2024 // 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor statement; Regulation G disclosure
Safe Harbor statement This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from such forward- looking statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed herein and in Duke Energy’s
Slide 3: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs and assumptions and can often be identified by
Slide 4: Pure play regulated utility operating in constructive, growing jurisdictions
Pure play regulated utility operating in constructive, growing jurisdictions Powering the Southeast and Midwest ▪ Significant economic development from data centers and advanced manufacturing drives long-term growth ▪ Carolinas and Florida remain top states for population migration $73 billion five-
Slide 5: Financial highlights
Financial highlights $1.60 / $1.62 Q3 2024 REPORTED / ADJUSTED EPS 1H RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS Summerside substation expansion project, Ohio $5.85 - $6.10 REAFFIRMING 2024 ADJUSTED EPS GUIDANCE RANGE TRENDING TO LOWER HALF OF RANGE DRIVEN BY HISTORIC STORM SEASON Asheville battery storage,
Slide 6: Unwavering commitment to restoring power to our communities
Unwavering commitment to restoring power to our communities HISTORIC STORM SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ALL-HANDS-ON-DECK SEASON ACROSS OUR SYSTEM RESPONSE ▪ ~5.5 million combined outages ▪ Impacted all of our service territories – ▪ Every Duke employee has a storm role Florida, Carolinas, and Midwest ▪ Hurri
Slide 7: Continue to execute on near- and long-term strategic priorities
Continue to execute on near- and long-term strategic priorities Planning for generation resources to support our growing communities ▪ Constructive decisions in Carolinas IRP filings support Near-Term Action Plan ▪ In North Carolina, NCUC order on November 1 approves the resource plan, accepting set
Slide 8: Q3 2024 adjusted EPS summary and primary drivers
Q3 2024 adjusted EPS summary and primary drivers REPORTED SEGMENT RESULTS VS. PRIOR YEAR QUARTER(1) EARNINGS PER SHARE Electric Utilities & Infrastructure, -$67M (-$0.09 per share) $4.17 ▼ Higher O&M, including storm costs ▼ Depreciation and interest expense $2.27 ▼ Weather $1.59 $1.60 ▲ Rate cases
Slide 9: Retail electric volumes
Retail electric volumes 2024 RETAIL LOAD TRENDS LONG-TERM GROWTH DRIVERS ▪ Total retail load growth trending toward ▪ Project total load growth of 1.5% - 2% for ~2% in 2024 2023 – 2028; trending to the high end ▪ 2.2% residential customer growth YTD; ▪ Economic development continues to be added over
Slide 10: Well-positioned to achieve long-term growth targets
Well-positioned to achieve long-term growth targets 2025 EARNINGS DRIVERS ▲ North Carolina multi-year rate plans Constructive regulatory outcomes ▲ Florida multi-year rate plan and riders over the past two years support ▲ Indiana rate case investment plan ▲ DEC-South Carolina rate case ▲ Midwest gri
Slide 11: Executing on credit supportive initiatives
Executing on credit supportive initiatives COMMITTED TO CURRENT DEFERRED FUEL BALANCE CREDIT RATINGS ($ in billions) DE Midwest $3.9 ▪ Monetized ~$200 million of tax credits in DE Progress DE Carolinas October; expect additional transactions by DE Florida year end $2.3 ▪ Recovered over $3 billion of
Slide 12: Our investor value proposition
Our investor value proposition A STRONG LONG-TERM RETURN PROPOSITION 3.7% ~10% 5 -7% DIVIDEND YIELD(1) ATTRACTIVE zzz LONG-TERM WITH LONG-TERM RISK-ADJUSTED EPS GROWTH(4) DIVIDEND GROWTH TOTAL SHAREHOLDER THROUGH 2028 COMMITMENT(2) RETURN(3) CONSTRUCTIVE, GROWING JURISDICTIONS, LOWER-RISK REGULATED
Slide 13: Appendix
APPENDIX // 13
Slide 14: Storm cost recovery (Debby, Helene, and Milton)
Storm cost recovery (Debby, Helene, and Milton) PRELIMINARY TOTAL RECOVERY $ in millions COST ESTIMATE (1) MECHANISM DE FLORIDA $1,100 - $1,300 ▪ Rider DE CAROLINAS $950 - $1,150 ▪ Securitization DE PROGRESS $350 - $450 ▪ Securitization STATE COST RECOVERY PROCESS ▪ Recovery of incremental O&M storm
Slide 15: Fourth quarter drivers
Fourth quarter drivers FOURTH QUARTER EARNINGS DRIVERS(1) Constructive regulatory outcomes ▲ Normal weather (+$0.06) setup strong finish to the year ▲ Volumes ▲ DEP-NC MYRP year 2 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range of ▲ DEC-NC rate case and MYRP $5.85-$6.10; trending to lower half ▲ DEC-SC rate case d
Slide 16: Advancing Carolinas energy transition
Advancing Carolinas energy transition NEAR-TERM ACTION PLAN SINGLE, UNIFIED INTEGRATED RESOURCE HIGHLIGHTS(1) PLAN FILED WITH BOTH NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA ▪ 6,700 MW of new solar in- ▪ Maintains “all of the above” strategy calling for a diverse service by 2031 deployment of new technologie
Slide 17: Regulatory activity details – open rate cases
Regulatory activity details – open rate cases FILING DOCKET KEY STATUS TYPE NO. DRIVERS ▪ The rate request is based on a forward test year (calendar year 2025) ▪ Petition filed April 4, 2024 ▪ Increase request reflects investments to improve ▪ Evidentiary hearings completed in grid reliability and s
Slide 18: Economic development driving unprecedented growth
Economic development driving unprecedented growth Advancing creative solutions ▪ Executed MOUs with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nucor provide framework to support accelerated clean energy transition; discussions continue to progress ▪ Tariff structures would include protections for non- participat
Slide 19: Electric utilities & infrastructure recovery mechanisms
Electric utilities & infrastructure recovery mechanisms RECOVERY MECHANISMS FOR ELECTRIC CAPEX(1) ▪ ~90% of electric segment capital investments are eligible for modern recovery mechanisms, mitigating regulatory lag ▪ Includes recovery through riders, rate cases with forecasted test years, and multi
Slide 20: Clean energy transition underpins five- and ten-year capital plans
Clean energy transition underpins five- and ten-year capital plans PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL CAPEX PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL CAPEX 2024-2028(1) 2024-2033 Environmental Corp, IT & Cyber Environmental Corp, IT & Cyber Remediation ~4% Coal Maintenance Remediation ~3% ~3% ~1% ~2% $73B ~5% ~5% Coal Maintenance Gas G
Slide 21: 2024 Supplemental Financial Information
2024 SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION // 21
Slide 22: Key 2024 adjusted earnings guidance assumptions
Key 2024 adjusted earnings guidance assumptions(1) Original 2024 2024 YTD ($ in millions) Assumptions (thru 9/30/2024) Adjusted segment income/(expense)(2): Electric Utilities & Infrastructure $4,890 $3,600 Gas Utilities & Infrastructure $570 $268 Other ($845) ($609) Duke Energy Consolidated $4,615
Slide 23: Electric utilities quarterly weather impacts
Electric utilities quarterly weather impacts Weather segment 2024 2023 income to normal: Pretax Weighted EPS impact Pretax Weighted EPS impact impact avg. shares favorable / impact avg. shares favorable / ($ in millions) (unfavorable) ($ in millions) (unfavorable) First Quarter ($66) 771 ($0.07) ($2
Slide 24: Key 2024 earnings sensitivities
Key 2024 earnings sensitivities Full-year Driver EPS Impact 1% change in earned return on equity +/- $0.63 $1 billion change in rate base +/- $0.07 Electric Utilities & 1% change in Electric Utilities volumes Infrastructure Industrial +/- $0.02(2) +/- $0.12(1)(2) Commercial +/- $0.05(2) Residential
Slide 25: Weather normalized volume trends, by electric jurisdiction
Weather normalized volume trends, by electric jurisdiction Rolling Twelve Months, as of September 30, 2024 Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Electric Carolinas Progress Florida Indiana Ohio/Kentucky Utilities 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Slide 26: Financing plan update and current liquidity
FINANCING PLAN UPDATE AND CURRENT LIQUIDITY // 26
Slide 27: 2024 Financing plan
2024 Financing plan Notional Pre- Completed Remaining Issuer Issuance Hedges Security Date Issued Term Rate(1) 2024 Maturities(2) ($ in millions) ($ in millions) ($ in millions) $600 3-year 4.85% Senior Debt January 2024 $650 5-year 4.85% (3) (4) $815 Euro Sr. Notes April 2024 7-year 5.65% $3,000 Ho
Slide 28: Liquidity summary (as of September 30, 2024)
Liquidity summary (as of September 30, 2024) ($ in millions) Duke Duke Duke Duke Duke Duke Piedmont Duke Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Natural Energy Carolinas Progress Florida Indiana Ohio Kentucky Gas Total Master Credit Facility (1) $ 2,275 $ 1,400 $ 1,500 $ 875 $ 950 $ 825 $ 225 $ 95
Slide 29: Upcoming events & other
UPCOMING EVENTS & OTHER // 29
Slide 30: Upcoming events
Upcoming events Event Date 2024 EEI Financial Conference November 10-12, 2024 4Q 2024 earnings call (tentative) February 13, 2024 THIRD QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS REVIEW AND BUSINESS UPDATE // 30
Slide 31: Investor relations contact information
Investor relations contact information ABBY MOTSINGER, VICE PRESIDENT INVESTOR RELATIONS ▪ Abby.Motsinger@duke-energy.com ▪ (704) 382-7624 CHRIS JACOBI, DIRECTOR INVESTOR RELATIONS ▪ Christopher.Jacobi@duke-energy.com ▪ (704) 382-8397 MEGAN HAMMEL, MANAGER INVESTOR RELATIONS ▪ Megan.Hammel@duke-ener
Slide 32: For additional information on Duke Energy
HEADLINE GOES HERE For additional information on Duke Energy, please visit: duke-energy.com/investors THIRD QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS REVIEW AND BUSINESS UPDATE // 32
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations: Adjusted Earnings per Share
Duke Energy Corporation Non-GAAP Reconciliations Third Quarter Earnings Review & Business Update November 7, 2024 Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) The materials for Duke Energy Corporation’s (Duke Energy) Third Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on November 7, 2024, include a discussion of
Slide 34: Adjusted Segment Income (Loss) and Adjusted Other Net Loss
Adjusted Segment Income (Loss) and Adjusted Other Net Loss The materials for Duke Energy’s Third Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on November 7, 2024, include a discussion of adjusted segment income (loss) and adjusted other net loss for the quarter and year-to- date periods ended Septemb
Slide 35: Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt Ratio
Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt Ratio The materials for Duke Energy’s Third Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on November 7, 2024, include a reference to the expected FFO to Debt ratio. This ratio reflects non-GAAP financial measures. The numerator of the FFO to Debt ratio is calculate
Slide 36: Reported to adjusted earnings reconciliation, three months ended Sept 30, 2024
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Items System Post- Preferred Reported Implementation Redemption Discontinued Total Adjusted Earnings Costs Costs Operations Adjustments E
Slide 37: Reported to adjusted earnings reconciliation, nine months ended Sept 30, 2024
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Items System Post- Preferred Reported Regulatory Implementation Redemption Discontinued Total Adjusted Earnings Matters Costs Costs Operat
Slide 38: Reported to adjusted earnings reconciliation, three months ended Sept 30, 2023
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Three Months Ended September 30, 2023 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Item Reported Regulatory Discontinued Total Adjusted Earnings Matters Operations Adjustments Earnings SEGMENT INCOME Electric Utilities a
Slide 39: Reported to adjusted earnings reconciliation, nine months ended Sept 30, 2023
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Nine Months Ended September 30, 2023 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Item Reported Regulatory Discontinued Total Adjusted Earnings Matters Operations Adjustments Earnings SEGMENT INCOME Electric Utilities an
Slide 40: Effective tax reconciliation, September 2024
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION EFFECTIVE TAX RECONCILIATION September 2024 (Dollars in millions) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 September 30, 2024 Effective Tax Effective Tax Balance Rate Balance Rate Reported Income From Continuing Operations Before Income Taxes $ 1,453 $ 3,856 Re
Slide 41: Available Liquidity Reconciliation
Duke Energy Corporation Available Liquidity Reconciliation As of September 30, 2024 (In millions) Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 376 Less: Certain Amounts Held in Foreign Jurisdictions (21) Less: Unavailable Domestic Cash (77) 278 Plus: Remaining Availability under Master Credit Facilities and other fa
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix