Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (August 2025)
55 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Aug 1, 2025
Slide 1: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Investor Update
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager Todd Warren, Partner Investor Update August 2025 Private And Confidential. Not For Public Distribution. 1 August 2025
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The information contai
Slide 3: Executive Summary
Executive Summary • Corporate Update: TGF has declared a fully franked final dividend of 5 cents per share for FY25 and an on-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue. The latter has the potential to deliver more than A$50m in accretion to shareholders, 1 a goal that the Board and Management r
Slide 4: Corporate Update – Dividend
Corporate Update – Dividend • TGF has declared a fully franked final dividend of 5 cents per share for FY25 • Relevant dates include o Ex-dividend date: 2 September 2025 o Record date: 3 September 2025 o Dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) election date: 4 September 2025 o Payment date: 3 October 2025
Slide 5: Corporate Update – On-Market Share Buyback
Corporate Update – On-Market Share Buyback • On-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue announced Previous on-market share buybacks have yielded positive results 200 70% TGF Discount to NTA (RHS) Shares Repurchased (Thousands, LHS) • Reflects continued confidence in TGF’s strategy, elevated c
Slide 6: Corporate Update – TGF Discount to NTA
Corporate Update – TGF Discount to NTA As NTA continues to break out of range, discount should close 2.50 -5% • TGF currently trades at a ~35% discount to NTA NTA (post-tax) Discount to NTA 2.40 -10% • TGF’s post-tax NTA has largely ranged between A$1.85 and A$2.20 per 2.30 share over the last twelv
Slide 7: Performance Update
Performance Update Performance Attribution by Sector (FY25) • The Company delivered a return of 3.2% in FY25 PRECIOUS METALS • Comfortably outperformed all major natural resources indices URANIUM o MSCI Commodity Producers Index down 4% ARGYLE DIAMONDS o S&P GSCI down 6% o ASX Resources Index down 8
Slide 8: Performance Update
Performance Update FY Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YTD 2018 - 2019 -0.07% -0.36% -0.71% 0.16% -0.44% -0.16% 0.25% -3.24% 0.78% -3.78% 2019 - 2020 -0.52% -1.93% -0.54% 0.60% 0.79% 3.67% -7.68% -7.52% -9.48% 5.74% 0.47% -13.96% -27.95% 2020 - 2021 4.52% -0.19% 0.46% 0.53% 9.63% 9.12
Slide 9: Performance Update
Performance Update Historical Exposures Net Exposure Weight (June 2025) 180% BASE METALS Long Exposure (%) Short Exposure (%) Gross Exposure (%) Net Exposure (%) 160% URANIUM 140% OIL AND GAS 120% DIVERSIFIED 100% PRECIOUS METALS 80% ARGYLE DIAMONDS 60% BATTERY METALS 40% BULKS 20% SOFT COMMODITY 0%
Slide 10: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified & risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names S&P GSCI Index Percentage Sector Weights (2025) Energy ~45% Metals ~85% Livestock
Slide 11: TGF or BHP?
TGF or BHP? BHP’s copper growth pipeline is increasingly capital intensive Capital intensity (US$k/tpa CuEq) • TGF is more diversified, with a higher exposure to the long-term high growth thematics of electrification and the energy transition 50 26-43 45 • BHP has been a premium performer, but is no
Slide 12: Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Special Situations
Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Special Situations Return of select equities since TGF deal participation TGF’s proprietary research and relationships ensures its regular Share price performance (%, local currency) participation in the sector’s highest quality equity capital markets deals DSV
Slide 13: Market Update
Market Update 13 August 2025
Slide 14: Market Structure Is Improving
Market Structure Is Improving Commodities increasingly strategic amid global trade tensions • US desire for critical minerals such as copper and rare earths highlights their importance to building out energy and defence infrastructure • TGF is well positioned to capitalise on this thematic China’s p
Slide 15: Commodities Increasingly Strategic
Commodities Increasingly Strategic 15 August 2025
Slide 16: Critical Mineral Supply Chains of Renewed Importance
Critical Mineral Supply Chains of Renewed Importance US Rest of World Critical Mineral Net import reliance Production Apparent demand Leading producing country Production in leading country % of world total Arsenic 100 0 9,100 Peru 627,000 95 Fluorspar 100 0 430,000 China 5,900,000 62 Gallium 100 0
Slide 17: Copper Recognised as Pivotal to Energy Security
Copper Recognised as Pivotal to Energy Security The US imports 91% of its refined copper demand … … And the importance of access to the red metal has been made clear US President Donald Trump with the CEO’s of Rio Tinto and BHP Official and unofficial presidential comments regarding copper Jakob Sta
Slide 18: Rare Earths Required to Build Out Defence
Rare Earths Required to Build Out Defence China is punching well above its weight vs resource endowment … which poses a significant issue for the US defence sector Rare earths elements supply chain How rare earths are used in US defence China US Australia Myanmar Others 100% F-35 Fighter Jet Arleigh
Slide 19: China's Policy Pivot
China’s Policy Pivot 19 August 2025
Slide 20: "Anti-Involution" Policies a Prelude to 2016-18 Style Supply Side Reform?
“Anti-Involution” Policies a Prelude to 2016-18 Style Supply Side Reform? Major Supply Side Reforms Anti-Involution Policies Dimension for comparison 2016-18 (‘1.0’) 2025 (‘2.0’) Increased US tariffs and elevated geopolitical uncertainties, Stock market crash in 2015, RMB market turmoil in 2015-16,
Slide 21: Lithium A Key Pillar in China's "Anti-Involution" Push
Lithium A Key Pillar in China’s “Anti-Involution” Push Oversupply = lower commodity prices = lower converter margins… Crackdown could flip lithium market to deficit if lepidolite stays offline Profit margins at lithium converters (US$/t) Lithium surplus/deficit (kt) 35000 100 Base Case Bull Case Bea
Slide 22: Mega-Infrastructure to Support Domestic Demand
Mega-Infrastructure to Support Domestic Demand Construction of what would be the world’s largest hydropower dam started on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet in July • Consisting of five cascade hydropower stations, the project would cost ~US$168bn, making it China’s single biggest construction proj
Slide 23: Additional Fiscal Policy Awaits US Tariff Implementation
Additional Fiscal Policy Awaits US Tariff Implementation Date Events Stimulus policies announced in China in the last twelve months: Late Aug 2025 (likely) NPC Standing Committee meeting The 80th anniversary of Chinese victory in WWII and a military (1) Monetary policy measures 3 Sep 2025 parade in
Slide 24: Economy Continues to Carry Capacity For Fiscal Expansion
Economy Continues to Carry Capacity For Fiscal Expansion China has capacity for stimulus with fiscal deficit under peak levels Economists expect the nation to draw on this capacity in 2H25 Augmented fiscal deficit (% of GDP) Augmented fiscal deficit change (y/y, % of GDP) 18 2.50% General fiscal + g
Slide 25: We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending
We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending • Fuelled by the stimulus package announced earlier this year, the rally in Chinese equities continues to gain momentum • On average, the last five rallies in China have lasted more than 12 months and generated returns of +100% • TGF materiall
Slide 26: Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
Slide 27: Structural Deficits for Key Commodities
Structural Deficits for Key Commodities Mined Copper Supply and Demand Forecasts (incl. AI effects) Uranium Concentrate Supply and Demand Forecasts 30,000 200,000 Demand UPPER Scenario incl. AI / Demand DCs 180,000 Existing Mines 28,000 Non-committed mine projects (@ 100%) Restarted Idled Capacity N
Slide 28: Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification
Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification US Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR EU-27 Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026E 2029
Slide 29: Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates
Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates China’s State grid investment is accelerating and increasingly copper intensive Grid investment continues to underpin China’s copper demand growth State grid annual Distribution as % total YoY change investment (Rmb bn) grid investment (%) 700 70%
Slide 30: Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries
Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries Global Mining capex cycle and underinvestment in new supply Major Copper Discoveries Over Time US$bn USc/Ib Mt US$bn 180 Diversified Aluminium 6.0 180 5.0 Copper Iron Ore Coal Battery Materials 4.5 160 160 Precious Metals Coppe
Slide 31: Existing And Future Supply Constantly Challenged
Existing And Future Supply Constantly Challenged Mined copper supply is consistently revised down as period nears Copper mine supply forecasts (ktpa) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 M
Slide 32: Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals
Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals Average lead times of mines from discovery to production, 2002-2023 Copper and nickel mines take 6-24mths longer than the average to get from discovery to production Discovery, exploration, studies Construction decision Construction to
Slide 33: Positioning Reversal
Positioning Reversal 33 August 2025
Slide 34: Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes
Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes 1.1 Real Assets Relative To Financial Assets Since 1925 Rotation From Digital to Real Economy Underway S&P500 sector market cap, % of total 70 1 War on Inflation 0.9 60 0.8 GATT/Bretton Woods 50 0.7 Real economy 20th Fall of Berlin century average = 46% 0.6
Slide 35: Evolution of "ESG" policies by BIG Asset Managers will drive flow BACK into Resources
Evolution of “ESG” policies by BIG Asset Managers will drive flow BACK into Resources The $12 trillion world’s largest asset manager has changed its tune on how it implements ESG policy. ESG 1.0 ESG 2.0 ESG 3.0 “move to divest thermal coal assets and put “foresighted companies across a wide range “t
Slide 36: ESG 4.0: The "Woke Unwind" Has Accelerated in 2025
The “Woke Unwind” Has Accelerated in 2025 US investor flows in sustainable equity funds % vs prior period Sustainable Funds All Funds ESG 4.0 0.40% US investor flows 0.20% into ETFs have been broadly Since December 2024, EIGHT of the world’s largest financial neutral in 2025 0.00% institutions have
Slide 37: Materials Exposure Moving Higher But Metals & Mining Remain Underweight
Materials Exposure Moving Higher But Metals & Mining Remain Underweight LO and HF exposure to materials is beginning to tick up … Although Metals & Mining positioning remains weak Relative Weight of Materials in LO & HF holdings (as of Apr 2025) 3m change in LO relative weight in Materials industrie
Slide 38: Energy A Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth
Energy A Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth Long Only and Hedge Fund Exposure to Energy is low vs history All investor styles are underweight Energy Funds’ relative weight in Energy vs S&P 500 index (as of Apr 2025) Fund Managers’ positioning in the Energy sector, Apr. 2025 LOs’ Relativ
Slide 39: Metal & Energy Producers Set to Benefit, Return to Long Term Average Multiples
Metal & Energy Producers Set to Benefit, Return to Long Term Average Multiples The S&P Metals and Mining Index EV/EBITDA relative to the S&P Similarly, the EBITDA multiple for the broader energy sector is 500 is one standard deviation below its long-term average trading near its record discount to t
Slide 40: M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value
M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value Aggregate deal value up despite fewer transactions, • Ongoing supply challenges mean it remains cheaper to buy than build highlighting large M&A appetite and sector concentration • Increasingly strategic nature of assets creates more competitive lan
Slide 41: Key Ideas
Key Ideas 41 August 2025
Slide 42: Albermarle Corporation (ALB US)
Albermarle Corporation (ALB US) Sector Battery Metals China Lithium Carbonate vs Spodumene Concentrate Position Type Fundamental Spot prices Rmb/t US$/t Theme Critical Minerals 120,000 1200 Industrial-grade lithium carbonate • Premier global lithium play Battery-grade lithium carbonate 110,000 1100
Slide 43: Energy Fuels (UUUU US)
Energy Fuels (UUUU US) Sector Uranium A Key Beneficiary of the US Critical Minerals Push Position Type Fundamental Share price (US$/sh) Theme Critical Minerals 11 On 10 July, the US Government and MP Materials, a • The go to name for US critical minerals 10 peer of UUUU, entered into a partnership t
Slide 44: Alpha HPA (A4N AU)
Alpha HPA (A4N AU) Sector Battery Metals Significant valuation upside post ramp Position Type Fundamental Equity valuation waterfall (A$m) Theme Critical Minerals 2,500 117 2,336 81 196 2,219 (50) • Market leading high-purity alumina (HPA) player 362 2,000 • Aiming to supply products into the lithiu
Slide 45: Argyle Diamonds
Argyle Diamonds Sector Diamonds Argyles Have Outperformed Other Hard Assets Physically Position Type Fundamental Performance (rebased to 100) Held Assets 1,000 Theme Scarcity Value Gold ETF 900 • TGF owns a portfolio of Argyle Diamonds, representing ~7% of Precious 800 the Company’s gross exposure1
Slide 46: Argyle Diamonds
Argyle Diamonds Sector Diamonds Recent observable sales show very strong pricing Physically Position Type Fundamental Argyle Diamond tender and auction headlines Held Assets Theme Scarcity Value • Over the past 25 years, most hard asset classes have increased in value 3-5 times. Argyle Diamonds have
Slide 47: 6K Additive (Private)
6K Additive (Private) Sector Battery Metals Peers paint an attractive valuation picture Position Type Special Situations Company comparison Theme Critical Minerals Market cap NA 2,100 300 325 • US-based global leader in sustainable metal powders & alloys (A$m)1 • Produces titanium, nickel, and other
Slide 48: An Opportune Time To Be Adding Exposure
An Opportune Time To Be Adding Exposure • Market Structure Is Improving: o The US push for energy and defence security is driving a critical minerals bull market that TGF is well positioned to capitalise on. Further, China’s “anti-involution” policies and mega-infrastructure should support commodity
Slide 49: Appendix
Appendix 49 August 2025
Slide 50: Appendix: Strategy Features
Appendix: Strategy Features Actively Managed Constrained Leverage • Actively managed, specialized long short • Low gross positioning to achieve strategy Variable Net <200% Gross superior risk adjusted returns with Exposure Exposure low correlation to major asset classes High Conviction • Strategy le
Slide 51: Appendix: Investment Universe
Appendix: Investment Universe A flexible approach enables allocation to sectors presenting the best risk-reward opportunities. Clean Energy & Transition Fuels Metals & Mining Soft Commodities Oil & Gas Base Metals Crops Uranium Bulks Agriculture Hydrogen Specialty Metals Aquaculture Renewables Preci
Slide 52: Appendix: Investment Process
Appendix: Investment Process Investment Process Commodity Ranking Macro Overlay Fundamental Research Investment Idea Generation Implementation • Global commodity demand and • Analysis of investor positioning • Sector and stock specific • Investments expressed based • High conviction, detailed supply
Slide 53: Appendix: Sources of Alpha
Appendix: Sources of Alpha • Flexibility within the mandate to take advantage of different types of trades across the natural resources complex, depending on best risk- reward and market environment. • Weighting of different types of trades will vary depending on prevailing market structure and envi
Slide 54: Appendix: Key Personnel
Appendix: Key Personnel Ben Cleary Investment Team Portfolio Manager Ben is the Portfolio Manager for the Tribeca Global Natural Resources Fund. He is the Investment Manager of Todd Warren Michael Orphanides Guy Keller Jack Gallagher Ted Coupland ASX-listed Tribeca Global Partner Analyst, Metals & C
Slide 55: Investor Relations
Investor Relations Email: TGFinvestors@tribecaip.com.au Web: www.tribecaip.com/lic Sydney Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd Level 23, 1 O’Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 9640 2600 Singapore Tribeca Investment Partners Pte Ltd Level 16 Singapore Land Tower 50 Raffles Place, Singapore 0486
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