Avance Gas Holding Ltd. · OTC:AVACF
Avance Gas — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation
26 slides from Avance Gas's earnings presentation, Nov 27, 2024
Slide 1: Third Quarter Results 2024
Third Quarter Results 2024 November 27, 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Matters discussed in this announcement may constitute forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this announcement, including those regarding Avance Gas' plans, strategies, business prospects, changes and trends in its business and the
Slide 3: Continuing Our Fibonacci Style Dividend
CONTINUING OUR FIBONACCI STYLE DIVIDEND 2022: DPS: $1.10 $84m in total Almost doubling 2023: DPS $2.15 $165m in total Paying one year dividend in just one 2024-Q1: DPS $2.15 $165m in total quarter 2024-Q2: DPS $1.35 $103m in total 2024-H1: DPS $3.50 $268m in total Paying one half year of dividends i
Slide 4: Q3 Highlights
Q3 HIGHLIGHTS Q3-24 TCE discharge-to-discharge of $38,700/day & $41,900/day load-to-discharge Q3-24 Net Profit of $25.8 million, equal to Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.34 RESULTS Q4-24 booked at average TCE of ~$28,000/day1 on a discharge-to-discharge basis Sale of the four MGC newbuildings to Exma
Slide 5: Thank You for the Journey – Fleet Sold with ~$490M Profit
THANK YOU FOR THE JOURNEY – FLEET SOLD WITH ~$490M PROFIT 2008/2009 class 2015 eco class DF class MGC/MACs Venus Glory (2008) Chinook Mistral (scrubber) Polaris (2022) MGC #1 (2025) Iris Glory (2008) Pampero Monsoon (scrubber) Capella (2022) MGC #2 (2026) Promise (2009) Levant (scrubber) Passat (scr
Slide 6: Selling the MGCs with a Solid Return for Our Shareholders
SELLING THE MGCs WITH A SOLID RETURN FOR OUR SHAREHOLDERS Gain on sale: Cash settlement: Return on invested capital of ~74% basis paid instalments Cash proceeds of ~$84 million1 USDm + ~$34 million USDm 290 60 282 280 50 50 270 260 40 248 34 250 30 240 230 20 220 10 210 200 0 Order price incl. super
Slide 7: Commercial Performance and Guidance
COMMERCIAL PERFORMANCE AND GUIDANCE Q3-24-Commercial Performance: Q4-24-Commercial Guidance: TC Rates: 16% $39,200/day1 Spot Rates: Spot Rates: $35,700/day1 25% $23,800/day1 Fleet TCE/day Q3-24: TC Rates: Fleet TCE/day Q4-24: $42,500/day1 $38,700 $27,900 discharge-to-discharge2 51% discharge-to-disc
Slide 8: DPS of $3.50 for Q3 with More to Come
DPS OF $3.50 FOR Q3 WITH MORE TO COME Dividends distribution Dividend capacity pro-forma sale of fleet1 DPS of $10.3 ($790m) the last three years ~$518m in total dividend capacity USD USDm 4.00 $3.50 255 3.50 5 3.00 235 At current 2.50 share price2 $2.15 3 2.00 2 2 1 3 2 1.50 $1.35 2 $1.91 1.00 $0.6
Slide 9: How We Arrived at the BW LPG NAV of $17.25 per Share
HOW WE ARRIVED AT THE BW LPG NAV OF $17.25 PER SHARE Base Case Implied today Average Value per Total Value per Total # ships Age ship $m value $m ship $m value $m Comment DF VLGCs 15 8 $ 90 $ 1,350 $ 70 $ 1,046 Eco non-DF 3 9 $ 80 $ 240 $ 58 $ 174 Non-eco 1 14 $ 65 $ 65 $ 49 $ 49 Avance fleet 12 7 $
Slide 10: To Do Checklist for Avance Gas
TO DO CHECKLIST FOR AVANCE GAS 1) Distribute Q3 dividends of $3.50 per share in December, equal to $268 million, as we are prepaying some of the gains to be recorded in Q4 from vessel sales 2) During December, we plan to deliver the remaining VLGCs to BW LPG and in connection with these deliveries w
Slide 11: Income Statement and Key Financial Figures Q3 2024
INCOME STATEMENT AND KEY FINANCIAL FIGURES Q3 2024 Income statement (in million $) Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Comments: Var.$ Var. $ 3-months 3-months YTD YTD TCE earnings 46 51 (5) 189 184 5 ▪ TCE on load-to-discharge basis was $41,900/day for Q3 2024 and Operating Profit before $56,300/day YT
Slide 12: Pro Forma Post Sale of the Fleet: Non-Recurring Effects
PRO FORMA POST SALE OF THE FLEET: NON-RECURRING EFFECTS VLGC sale - Schedule for Booking in Q4 2024: Income Statement (in million $) – Q3 YTD Post-VLGC Post-MGC ▪ Gain on sa e of $2 i ion basis BW LPG’s Pro-forma Q3 YTD pro forma sale of fleet 2024 sale effect sale effect share price of $16.18/share
Slide 13: Cash Flow Movements Q3 2024 and Pro-Forma Cash
CASH FLOW MOVEMENTS Q3 2024 AND PRO-FORMA CASH $m $ $3.50/share $ $5 $235 $ $1.35/share $ 5 $3 $7 2 $2 $2 $1 3 $1 $1 $ fro opera ons 2 i idend ash ep 3 2 2 ash se e ent sa e of G eet ash n3 2 2 APEX ebt repa ent ash proceeds 3 i idend Pro for a net cash sa e of LG eet Cash proceeds based on current
Slide 14: Debt Free by Year-End Following the Sale of the VLGC Fleet
DEBT FREE BY YEAR-END FOLLOWING THE SALE OF THE VLGC FLEET $360 million Bank Term Facilities – Repaid at delivery Total outstanding debt of $490 million ▪ Two Bank Term Facilities financing 10 VLGCs: as of September 30, 2024 1) $43 million Term Facility financing for the VLGC Pampero (2015) Outstand
Slide 15: US Production Growth Remains the Key Driver
US PRODUCTION GROWTH REMAINS THE KEY DRIVER Seaborne LPG export1 Seaborne LPG Import2 KT KT 60,000 35,000 +11% +11% 30,000 50,000 +2% 25,000 40,000 -5% 20,000 +8% +3% 30,000 15,000 +9% 20,000 10,000 -3% +7% -1% +8% -10% 10,000 -9% 5,000 - - United States Middle East Norhern Africa Europe Rest of the
Slide 16: Unseasonably Soft Freight Despite Strong Price Arbitrage
UNSEASONABLY SOFT FREIGHT DESPITE STRONG PRICE ARBITRAGE US inventories Price arbitrage US-Japan US spot freight rates Million bbl $/mt $/day 120 400 180,000 350 160,000 100 140,000 300 80 120,000 250 100,000 60 200 80,000 150 40 60,000 100 40,000 20 50 20,000 - 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2020 2021
Slide 17: Why Is Freight So Low? It's the Terminals, Stupid
WHY IS FREIGHT SO LOW? IT’S THE TERMINALS, STUPID… It Costs the Same To Move a Gallon of Propane 100 Feet as it does 11,000 Nautical Miles RBN Energy – Analyst Insight November 18, 2024: The propane export market can sometimes do some strange things, especially when Gulf Coast dock capacity is maxed
Slide 18: Due to VLGC Deliveries and the Panama Canal Reopening
…DUE TO VLGC DELIVERIES AND THE PANAMA CANAL REOPENING VLGC deliveries VLGC Panama transits Panama VLGC congestion 7 160 7.0% Ton-mile demand reduced by ~20 VLGCs +6 VLGCs less in Panama congestion 23 deliveries LTM 150 since Nov. 20231 compared to Nov. 2023 6 6.0% 140 5 5.0% Newbuilding deliveries
Slide 19: Moderate Fleet Growth Until 2027
MODERATE FLEET GROWTH UNTIL 2027 Delivery schedule Aging fleet 20 140 398 VLGCs on water, 106 vessels on order, ~27% orderbook ~15% of fleet older than 20 120 18 years. However, limited 100 scrapping due to relatively 80 strong market and old vessels 16 ending up in Iran 60 14 40 20 12 0 >25 year 20
Slide 20: Q3 Highlights
Q3 HIGHLIGHTS Q3-24 TCE discharge-to-discharge of $38,700/day & $41,900/day load-to-discharge Q3-24 Net Profit of $25.8 million, equal to Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.34 RESULTS Q4-24 booked at average TCE of ~$28,000/day1 on a discharge-to-discharge basis Sale of the four MGC newbuildings to Exma
Slide 21: Q&A and Appendix
Q&A and Appendix 21
Slide 22: Appendix – Comments to the Income Statement
APPENDIX – COMMENTS TO THE INCOME STATEMENT Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Variance • TCE earnings (net of operating revenue and voyage expenses) of $45.6 Income Statement (in thousands $) 3-months 3-months 3-months million for the third quarter, down from $50.9 million in the second Operating revenue 62,590 67,69
Slide 23: Appendix – Comments to the Balance Sheet
APPENDIX – COMMENTS TO THE BALANCE SHEET Variance Balance Sheet (in thousands $) 30.09.2024 30.06.2024 3-months ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents 192,585 268,287 (75,702) Trade and other receivables 6,763 25,089 (18,326) Inventory 7,621 6,535 1,086 • Total assets consist primarily of 12 VLGCs on wate
Slide 24: Appendix – Comments to the Cash Flow
APPENDIX – COMMENTS TO THE CASH FLOW Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Variance Cash flow statement (in thousands $) 3-months 3-months 3-months Cash flows from operating activities: • Cash and cash equivalents were $192.6 million on 30 September 2024, Cash generated from operations 50,348 35,337 15,011 compared to $2
Slide 25: Glossary
GLOSSARY A&G = Administrative and general CBE = Cash break even = Capital EEXI expenditure = Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index EPS = Earnings Per Share FY = Fiscal year IFRS = International Financial Reporting Standards IMO = International Maritime Organization LPG = Liquefied Petroleum Gas OPEX
Slide 26: Contact Details
Contact Details Avance Gas Bryggegata 3 0112 Oslo, Norway +47 23 11 40 00 www.avancegas.com Investor Relations https://www.avancegas.com/Investor-Relations Stock Exchange ticker: AGAS 26