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BP — Investor Presentation (January 2012)

36 slides from BP's investor presentation, January 2012

  1. Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2030

  2. Slide 2: BP Energy Outlook 2030

  3. Slide 3: Outline

    Outline bp Global energy trends Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2012

  4. Slide 4: Non-OECD economies continue to drive consumption growth

    bp Non-OECD economies continue to drive consumption growth Billion toe Billion toe 18 18 15 15 m= Renewables * 12 12 = Hydro 9 9 = Nuclear = Coal 6 6 m Gas 3 3 Oil *Includes biofuels 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2012

  5. Slide 5: Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD

    bp Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD is By fuel and country grouping Contributions to global growth Change 2010 to 2030, Billion toe % p.a. 5 2.5% = = m Renewables” 4 =— = 2.0% > m Hydro 3 i 1.5% Ei m Nuclear == 2 1.0% 7 m Coal 1 = Gas — = 0.5% [| 0 ms Oil = o_ 0.0% -1 1970- 1990- 2010

  6. Slide 6: Energy consumption growth by sector

    Energy consumption growth by sector bp i By sector and region to 2030 Billion toe f ! 3.0 ' Ei ' ni RoW 2.0 } ! = m Middle 1.0 _ ! East = | m China & met ~ India c o B r= 1 m OECD 2° | Final energy use Inputs to power By sector and fuel to 2030 Billion toe \ 1 3.0 m Hydro 1 | = m Nuclear 2.0 [] 1 m

  7. Slide 7: Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares

    bp Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares i" Energy intensity Shares of world primary energy Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.4 50% Oil 9, 03 40% 30% Coal 84 eet ge a — 20% Gas 0.1 | — 10% Higa — Nuclear _— Renew. 0 0% ‘ 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook

  8. Slide 8: Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel

    Outline bp Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal Non-fossil fuels Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2012

  9. Slide 9: Global liquids - demand and supply

    bp Global liquids - demand and supply i" Mb/d Demand Supply 105 ———_ 2030 level ——————> Other | 100 Other Iraq S&C Am saudi 95 Mid East Cis NGLs 90 Brazil US” 80 2010 OECD Non- 2010 Non- Non- OPEC Declines OECD OPEC OPEC Growth Growth Growth Declines Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2012

  10. Slide 10: Liquids demand growth is driven by non-OECD transport

    bp Liquids demand growth is driven by non-OECD transport is Liquids demand by sector Transport demand Mb/d Billion toe 105 mNon-OECD = 90 Ind. & Other +5 m Non-OECD mw Electricity Transport mGas i OECD Ind. & Coal 45 Other = Biofuels 30 m OECD 1 Oil - road 1 Transport @ Oil - non-road m Power 0 0 19

  11. Slide 11: Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America

    bp Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America is Liquids supply by type Growth from 2010 to 2030 Mb/d Mb/d 105 45% 12 m= OPEC NGLs 9 Saudi 1 = OPEC crude Arabia Brazil 60 — Biofuels 6 USiSfiale 45 == =Oil Sands # 30 = Other non-OPEC 3 Biofuels m= Non-OPEC conv. e Canadian 15 0 Oil Sands Ones 0 3

  12. Slide 12: Natural gas demand growth is concentrated in the non-OECD

    Natural gas demand growth is concentrated in the non-OECD bp Demand Bef/d 470 420 370 320 Supply —- 2030 level ——> 2010 OECD Non-OECD 2010 N _ America LNG Pipeline Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2012

  13. Slide 13: Fuel substitution in power and industry

    Fuel substitution in power and industry bp a Demand by sector Gas demand growth 2010-30 Bef/d 60 | Growth at m= Transport 50 constant fuel MNon-OECD gg ates Power eaten of aaal changing fue uw Non-OECD ay aa. Ind. & Other 20 m OECD Power 10 0 m OECD Ind. & Other -10 ~ Power Industry Power Industry 1

  14. Slide 14: Unconventional gas will play a growing role

    bp Unconventional gas will play a growing role is Gas supply by region North America Europe China Bef/d Bef/d Bef/d 100 100 100 Net pipeline - imports am aD m Net LNG 60 60 60 imports nu Syngas from 40 40 40 coal | m Shale gas and 20 20 20 CBM ri ul Conventional 0 = 0 0 (inc. tight gas) 1990 2010 20

  15. Slide 15: Coal consumption levels off after 2020

    bp Coal consumption levels off after 2020 is Coal demand by region Coal demand by sector Billion toe Billion toe 5 5 4 4 Industry 3 China 3 2 India 2 1 1 0 0 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 ©BP 2012 15

  16. Slide 16: Non-fossil fuels growth is led by renewables in the OECD

    bp Non-fossil fuels growth is led by renewables in the OECD is OECD Non-OECD Billion toe Billion toe 2.0 2.0 mg Renewables m Biofuels 1.5 m= Hydro 1.5 = Nuclear 1.0 1.0 0.5 0:5 0.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 16 © BP 2012

  17. Slide 17: Key determinants: China and India

    Outline bp Key determinants China and India Energy Outlook 2030 17 © BP 2012

  18. Slide 18: Pace and scale of development in India and China

    bp Pace and scale of development in India and China is Population Energy GDP Billion Billion toe Trillion, $2010 PPP 9 18 180 8 15 150 7 6 12 120 5 9 90 4 3 6 60 2 3 30 1 0 0 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 18 © BP 2012

  19. Slide 19: Energy consumption growth in India and China

    bp Energy consumption growth in India and China is India China Billion toe Billion toe 5 . 5 @ Renewables’ 4 m Hydro 4 = Nuclear 3 = Coal 3 m= Gas 2 wOil 2 1 — 1 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 19 © BP 2012

  20. Slide 20: Patterns of development

    bp Patterns of development is Industrialisation Energy intensity Industry as %GDP Toe per thousand $2010 GDP ma ys eS —— sale China 40 F 8 0.3 30 0.2 20 i 20 major countries 1820-2010 gq ariieiiiiie ©. salle 10 « China 1970-2010 indie e India 1945-2010 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 1970 1990 2010 2030 $2010

  21. Slide 21: Industry causes energy demand to decelerate

    bp Industry causes energy demand to decelerate is China: final energy demand by sector Primary energy growth by fuel Billion toe ELIE aE = ina ndia 3.5 = Other be Ld 3.0 = Transport 1.2 | m Renewables” 25 m Industry 1.0 | m Hydro oa ag | m Nuclear ' . | Coal 1.5 0.6 | m Gas ' . 1.0 04 __ } Gu —_ 1 0

  22. Slide 22: Middle East

    Outline bp Middle East Energy Outlook 2030 22 © BP 2012

  23. Slide 23: Resource availability defines the Middle East

    Resource availability defines the Middle East bp a GDP per capita Index (1970=100) Energy per capita Energy intensity 600 jy 500 F __Non-OECD Mid East 2° _ __ Other non-OECD oN 400 - —OECD 400 / 300 300 /| ~~ 200 200 100 Lag a tis — 0 0 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 2010 2030 Energy

  24. Slide 24: Gas will play a key role in domestic demand

    bp Gas will play a key role in domestic demand Regional demand by fuel Billion toe 1.5 =m Renewables = Hydro = Nuclear = Coal m Gas z Oil 1.0 2010-30 growth by sector and fuel Billion toe 0.3 m= Hydro | = | 0.2 m Nuclear = m Renew. 0.1 m Electricity 0.0 Hila & m Gas ae § . E m Oil ¢ 3 Oo = Coal 0.0

  25. Slide 25: The region's role in global oil markets will continue

    bp The region’s role in global oil markets will continue is Supply by fuel Exports as share of global demand (excl. Mid East) Billion toe 25 7 Gas 40% —Oil i —Gas 2.0 zOil 30% le yp 20% 1.0 0.5 10% [as 0.0 0% 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 25 © BP 2012

  26. Slide 26: Transport

    Outline bp Transport Energy Outlook 2030 26 © BP 2012

  27. Slide 27: Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the Non-OECD

    bp Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the Non-OECD Total number of vehicles Vehicles per thousand people Millions 1,600 pp jj emmumnnmes! US Germany 1,200 600 en Japan 800 400 400 200 China India eile 0 0 — 4 aoccccosene® 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030

  28. Slide 28: Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements

    bp Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements Projected car efficiency Global vehicle fleet in 2030 _, = Plug-ins incl. BEVs 7’ = Full hybrid a = Mild hybrid Litres per 100 km 10 —EU ~ US light vehicles 8 4h, 4 a @ Conventional NR tenes incl. stop-start 2 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook

  29. Slide 29: Efficiency gains have the biggest impact on oil demand

    bp Efficiency gains have the biggest impact on oil demand is Oil demand for road transport Mb/d 60 x wa non-OECD 50 OECD 40 Other* ,» a 2010 Increased Reduced Improved — Increased use 2030 vehicles average vehicle of alternatives usage efficiency * Includes GTL, CTL, CNG, LNG and electricity Energy

  30. Slide 30: Risks and unknowns

    Outline bp Risks and unknowns Energy Outlook 2030 30 © BP 2012

  31. Slide 31: The impact of "business as usual"

    The impact of “business as usua hg bp i ..for China, and its global fuel impact ...and in oil markets Billion toe % of world demand in 2030 Mb/d in 2030 7 35% 10 Business as usual 6 — (at trend intensity) / 30% 8 5 F 25% 4 20% 6 3 15% 4 2 10% Base case 2 5% 0) 0% 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Coal Oil Gas C

  32. Slide 32: Energy imbalances improve in the Americas

    Energy imbalances improve in the Americas 2" Europe Pe: N. America Key: Billion toe m Gas = Oil ™ Coal 1990 2010 2030 Other Asia Pacific Bai Net importers ©@ Net exporters Energy Outlook 2030 32 © BP 2012

  33. Slide 33: Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe

    bp Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe is India China EU27 US Billion toe 1.2 m= Gas Oil Import share of " 1.0 respective fuel = Coal 0.8 | 80% 0.6 ma 47% 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 1 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 33 © BP 2012

  34. Slide 34: Carbon emission growth slows, but more action is needed

    bp Carbon emission growth slows, but more action is needed Global CO, emissions from energy use Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 40 40 Base Case Policy Case 30 30 Va 20 Non-OECD 20 IEA “450 Scenario” 10 10 0 0 1990 2010 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 34 © BP 2012

  35. Slide 35: Conclusion

    bp Conclusion is GDP, Energy and CO, Index (1970=100) e Energy can be available and 900 affordable >» Competition 700 GDP > Innovation 500 >» Regulation Energy e Energy security an issue 300 = e CQ, emissions not on track 2 100 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 35 © BP 2012

  36. Slide 36: BP Energy Outlook 2030

BP — Investor Presentation (January 2012) on 6ix