Slide 1: Global Dairy Market Status and 2035 Perspectives
Global Dairy Market Status and 2035 Perspectives Real Science Lecture Series IFCN Andrea Lendewig Head of Research December 2nd, online & Development 1
Slide 2: IFCN helps its partner companies improve their market intelligence and make better decisions
IFCN HELPS ITS PARTNER COMPANIES TO IMPROVE THEIR MARKET INTELLIGENCE AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS Milk Processing Feed and Feed Additives Milk Processing and Packaging Technologies Finance Institutions Agriculture Technology Companies Health and Hygiene Genetics for Animals & Plants Dairy Farming Milk
Slide 3: From shocks to trends: forces shaping the global dairy
From shocks to trends: forces shaping the global dairy Economy Price shift Labor market Cost of production Farm consolidation (Stagflation, (Farm inputs, (Wages, (Investments, immigration) ( Farm profitability) interest rates) energy crisis) buffer capacity) What starts as a shock ‘can’ Demand (Appe
Slide 4: Crossing a billion ton of milk, but production growth is slowing
Crossing a billion ton of milk, but production growth is slowing World milk production in million-ton SCM Annual % change of milk demand drivers 4.0 Milk from other animals via per capita consumption growth Household consumption/ on farm use (cow & buffalo) 1.007 973 via population growth Informal m
Slide 5: Milk supply into processing (worldwide)
Milk supply into processing (worldwide) in 2020 & 2024: up 5 bn kg/y in average 537 World raw milk supply into dairy processing plants 2020 and 2024 516 (excluding India, Pakistan) 148 150 in billion kg SCM/year 136 127 2020 2024 105 100 34 37 26 26 26 25 15 16 12 12 9 9 11 11 7 8 2 2 EU-27 US NZ UK
Slide 6: Changes in consumption patterns pushing prices up for butter and driving world milk price
Changes in consumption patters pushing prices up for butter and driving the world milk price developments IFCN World Milk Price Indicator Dairy Commodity Prices 70 8,000 in USD / 100 kg solid corrected milk (4% fat, 3.3% protein) 60 7,000 Butter 6,000 50 in USD / metric ton 5,000 40 4,000 30 3,000 S
Slide 7: Record butter price gap opens door for US imports into Europe
Record butter price gap opens door for US imports into Europe USA Butter Net Trade Balance in Kiloton ME Butter prices across the global 176 EU Oceania -56 -67 -59 -119 -200 -228 US driven by an -479 oversupplied -520 -537 local market -718 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (til
Slide 8: Milk flows from every corner of the globe in 2025
Milk flows from every corner of the globe in 2025 (with few exceptions ) Absolute change in milk volumes (milk produced or delivered) EU-27 Jan-Oct 2025 vs Jan-Oct 2024 in metric ton SCM 5 mill 3 mill IFCN 1 mill Source : IFCN Monthly Real-Time Data, 65 countries analysed © IFCN 2025 – For internal
Slide 9: Analysing typical dairy farms – benchmark of costs, production systems and farm economics
Analysing typical dairy farms – benchmark of costs, production systems and farm economics DE-30S DE-180N DE-700E DE 1200E US-1100CA US-3000CA Market level: 99% milk in the world KE-2 is produced in 125 countries KE-10 Dairy farm analysis: NZ-332 NZ-1134 >160 Agricultural Systems / Types >55 Countrie
Slide 10: 75% of countries have costs of >40 USD; milk production cost is 19% higher vs. 5 years ago
75% of countries have costs of >40 USD Milk production cost is 19% higher vs. 5 years ago 5 years ago, even with moderate milk prices, maintaining good farm margins was possible IFCN Now with high inflation in farm input costs that is not the case → low-cost producers are vanishing Source : Dairy Re
Slide 11: Costs increased on average by +22% on all typical farms in the last 5 years
The costs on average increased by +22% on all typical farms in the last 5 years and speeds up consolidation Cost components of the typical dairy farms Global Farm Structure 2024 70 70 in 2020 and 2024 Other 3.0% 65 Vet&med, AI 60 Machinery&buildings IFCN Standard Classes 60 Land (cows per farm) 55 C
Slide 12: Main “Known Unknowns” to watch for in 2026
Main “Known Unknowns” watch for in 2026 Search Discover Milk price competitiveness Politics unknown Supply of fat Location: Regulations Weather anomalies Tariffs where Monitor Research known Transformation Increased farm costs Impact of new Tech & AI Consolidation Deflation in China known unknown IF
Slide 13: From pieces to puzzle: building competitive strength together
From pieces to puzzle: building competitive strength together Retailers & Markets Local vs global Consumers Sustainability premiums Milk pool analysis Selected suppliers Markets evolution Demanded quality Outlook scenarios Consumer patterns Farmers & Processors Farm input Sourcing milk Tracking cost
Slide 14: Dairy World in 2035
+0.8 billion more people Dairy World in 2035 vs. 2024* +9 kg more “ milk” consumed +15% more milk produced and consumed +154 mill t SCM ≈ 1.5 x USA today +1 mill t ME more traded* -29 mill fewer dairy “cows” +0.6 t more milk per animal -19 mill fewer dairy farms IFCN *IFCN Baseline Scenario - “Pro-D
Slide 15: Growth beyond challenges: opportunities to win in the future
Growth beyond challenges: There are a lot of opportunities to win in the future Milk surplus and deficit in 2035 Western Europe Opportunity for premium products North and East Asia Main cheese importers, US Westernising diets Ambition to grow with exports North Africa Increasing cheese demand with g
Slide 16: Unsatisfied demand as a symptom of supply-side constraints
Unsatisfied demand as a symptom of supply -side constrains World milk Production Milk supply and demand Current scenario considered Unsatisfied demand In the current methodology of the IFCN 140 20 Consumptio per capita = supply per capita Long-term Dairy Outlook, a theoretical IFCN Outlook imbalance
Slide 17: The dairy gap: growing appetite meets limited self-supply and results in increasing imports
The dairy gap: growing appetite meets limited self - supply and results in increasing imports The balance between production growth and self-sufficiency defines future dairy trade needs per region 0% production CAGR 350% NZ UY 300% 10 Oceania 250% Surplus or deficit, Self-sufficiency 2035 EU-27 US i
Slide 18: US ambitions to grow with the exports: +8.6 mill t ME more to the global market
US ambitions to grow with the exports: +8.6 mill t ME more to the global market Net dairy surplus Milk supply drivers 2014-2024 + outlook 2035 2.0% •Reaching the natural 1.5% animal capability in 15 1.0% milk output and solids 1.8% 14 Milk yield 8,7% 0.7% 0.5% 13 Number of •Needs to grow in 0.3% ani
Slide 19: EU dairy and policy-driven sustainability: farming regulations as a kind of new quota
EU dairy and policy -driven sustainability: farming regulations as a kind of new quota Increase and decrease in milk production 2035 vs 2024 in mill t • EU-15 –11.5 mill t SCM vs EU-13 + 1.6mill t SCM until 2035 • Number of dairy animals decrease -1.6% CAGR 2024-2035 • Milk yield increase +1.1% CAGR
Slide 20: IFCN Projects
IFCN Projects Deep dive into specific topics to support the decision - making process Last 12 months we did more than 30 research projects. We do projects in various areas including: • Future milk pool analysis • Dairy farming and dairy sector analysis • Strategic sustainability goals • Supply chain
Slide 21: How to contact us
For further information about the IFCN Dairy Research Network, please contact us using the contact data provided below: HOW TO 0431 / 530 240 0 CONTACT US INFO@IFCNDAIRY.ORG IFCN Data Protection | Terms of Service 21